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Author Topic: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Game Over, Mafia Wins!)  (Read 169078 times)

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Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day2)
« Reply #1100 on: December 11, 2013, 10:43:57 am »

You don't give reasons here why your earlier stances on Morgrim are no longer valid. Why weren't they? And the whole "if he flips town, it gives other PRs more info for their night action" is just not a valid reason to lynch anyone, as I already explained.

Second part first, I was misunderstanding the setup. First part second, they were still valid reasons, I just didn't know it. I do think it would have been better if we didn't lynch morgrim now (obviously) but only insomuch as he was town, not that he was a PR. I stand by our decision and my decision to hammer. Morgrim claimed D1 as the tracker. We could have no confidence that he would use his PR in a pro-town way. And he was behaving differently than crazy morgrim in the past - it did feel like he was faking his own meta. That's as much as I want to say.

From there on, you seem really convinced that Morgrim is scum:



What makes you so sure?

Nothing made me sure, but I became confident that lynching him was the right move.. I simply thought through the process again and came to a different conclusion.

Then, short before the Day ends, you ask this:

faust, what do you want to have happen before a lynch? I'm willing to vote morgrim but that runs the risk he self-hammers. With the exception of manda, I'm fine with the day ending.

But yet you don't wait until any of the things I wanted to have happen happened and just go ahead and hammer. Why did you even ask?

Because manda clearly wasn't coming back soon, a prod had to be issued. I was fine with the day ending, it was the day before deadline anyway. What were you expecting to get from Morgrim?
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faust

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day2)
« Reply #1101 on: December 11, 2013, 10:57:53 am »

Because manda clearly wasn't coming back soon, a prod had to be issued. I was fine with the day ending, it was the day before deadline anyway. What were you expecting to get from Morgrim?

A reads list, for example. Having reads from confirmed town around is rather helpful I think.
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Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day2)
« Reply #1102 on: December 11, 2013, 11:00:01 am »

Because manda clearly wasn't coming back soon, a prod had to be issued. I was fine with the day ending, it was the day before deadline anyway. What were you expecting to get from Morgrim?

A reads list, for example. Having reads from confirmed town around is rather helpful I think.

Obviously you can disagree, but...exactly how useful would those reads have been? In my opinion, useless.
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Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day2)
« Reply #1103 on: December 11, 2013, 11:00:23 am »

Because manda clearly wasn't coming back soon, a prod had to be issued. I was fine with the day ending, it was the day before deadline anyway. What were you expecting to get from Morgrim?

A reads list, for example. Having reads from confirmed town around is rather helpful I think.

Obviously you can disagree, but...exactly how useful would those reads have been? In my opinion, useless.

I mean, again, on principle I agree with you. It's the "Morgrim is the exception to the rule" situation.
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faust

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day2)
« Reply #1104 on: December 11, 2013, 11:13:30 am »

Because manda clearly wasn't coming back soon, a prod had to be issued. I was fine with the day ending, it was the day before deadline anyway. What were you expecting to get from Morgrim?

A reads list, for example. Having reads from confirmed town around is rather helpful I think.

Obviously you can disagree, but...exactly how useful would those reads have been? In my opinion, useless.

Well, while I think Morgrim plays differently from most others here, I don't think that he does not know what he's doing.
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WalrusMcFishSr

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day2)
« Reply #1105 on: December 11, 2013, 11:37:58 am »

faust: You're right, I totally forgot about the LALL'ing thing until recently. In fact, that was my primary hypothesis that I was keeping in mind while going through this reread, and it's part of the reason I picked out mcmc as being likely scum.

mcmc: My recent vote comes mostly from rereading the first half of the game. So it is indeed delayed, but not so much OMGUS. I could understand why you might think that way though.

Jimmmmm: As I stated before, I found your most recent spat with ash to feel quite town vs. town (this explains also where my town points for ash came from, faust).

I gave more town points to Jimmmmm than ash. Since the "asshole dial" comment, I feel like ash has been acting more like his "normal" self. So it's possible that was just a V/LA shift. On the other hand, I know ash is capable of anything...it's possible he realized people were expecting more asshole, and so he adapted to what the people wanted. And it doesn't completely cancel out my earlier scumread on him.

Jimmmmm has been very out in the open, and I think he's exposing himself more than scum would like to do. One reservation I have is that he himself specifically asked for people to answer this question, which strikes me as a little weird. So mitigate those town points somewhat.

But bottom line is that both of them got kicked down a notch on my lynch list.
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day2)
« Reply #1106 on: December 11, 2013, 03:34:40 pm »

I have a question I'd like every player to answer.

Based on the Jimmmmm vs ash fight (and anything else), in which order would you place the following, from most likely to least likely?

A) Both Town
B) Jimmmmm scum
C) ash scum
D) Both scum

faust, would you mind endorsing this question? You have a heck of a lot more pull than I do.

B, C, D, A
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day2)
« Reply #1107 on: December 11, 2013, 03:37:18 pm »

Now to Robz.

As already stated that I think scum!Robz is unlikely to not try to NK the IC. This is somewhat mitigated by this post:

I would say IC is the strongest town PR there is available in this game.

which may mean that scum!Robz was trying to get me to think just that.

I never quite understood this post:

I think we should base our scumhunting on what's most likely the case here - that e is town. So let's consider the e wagon at peak.

2.7 (5): Walrus, mcmcsalot, Jorbles, Faust, ashersky (L-2)

When I voted for e, it was partly because I thought he acted scummy, but also partly because I was looking for reactions to a wagon with me on it. And what I take from this is: there are likely multiple scum off the e wagon. What I found odd is that after I voted e, no one jumped the wagon for quite some time, until ashersky's vote.

As scum, I would be wary to vote e as this stage: either he is scum (possibly the Traitor), then scum doesn't want to lynch one of their own D1. Or he's town. Well, every vote after mine would get heat D2 for jumping the easy mislynch once e flipped town. So scum would hold back. And given that there was a lot of holding back going on, there was probably scum among them.

I will do a reread of those off-wagon and post the results soon.

Good thinking. Well, Jorbles and mcmc look scummy there.

Can you tell me what you were trying to say here?

Lastly, this post:

I'm ready for a hammer as well.

I've been mentally backing off my insistence on lynching Morgrim a little bit as I remember all those times I said, "He's just crazy, never scum." But, okay, he expects me to say that by now, doesn't it? So ultimately I think there is still just too strong a chance this was scum play... and if it wasn't scum play, this is the not a terrible lynch (we weren't going to get much out of our Tracker, anyway), and I think a decently informational Day 1.

I don't think lynching a town PR D1 is ever "not terrible". This looks like scum!Robz preparing for Morgrim's town flip, justifying his support for the lynch before the flip.

I am also still awaiting an answer to my previous post. And an answer to Jimmmmm's question. Robz stated he was "confident-ish" in his ash reads, so this should be interesting.

One last point: Robz is tunneling Jimmmmm quite hard. I think that's something he would do as scum, he did it in M31.

What do you mean, what was I trying to say? I was trying to say what I said, that based on the analysis I was quoting, those ere the scummy people.

I'm tunneling Jimm because I think he is scum, and I think he's scum for very good reasons that I have stated.

As for Morgrim, of course I was justifiyng my vote, it was a vote to kill a claimed PR. I didn't back off it, though. I didn't unvote, that would have been backing off.
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Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day2)
« Reply #1108 on: December 11, 2013, 03:39:35 pm »

I have a question I'd like every player to answer.

Based on the Jimmmmm vs ash fight (and anything else), in which order would you place the following, from most likely to least likely?

A) Both Town
B) Jimmmmm scum
C) ash scum
D) Both scum

faust, would you mind endorsing this question? You have a heck of a lot more pull than I do.

B, C, D, A

!
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Teproc

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day2)
« Reply #1109 on: December 11, 2013, 03:41:29 pm »

Yeah that's... a pretty bold ordering, probability wise.
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day2)
« Reply #1110 on: December 11, 2013, 03:44:30 pm »

I know, well, it's what I think. Sorry, I was asked. The only thing felt off to me though, and not town on town.
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day2)
« Reply #1111 on: December 12, 2013, 12:08:25 am »

Sheesh. Lurk much?
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ashersky

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day2)
« Reply #1112 on: December 12, 2013, 12:11:59 am »

Post count:

1. Voltaire - 129
2. Walrus - 35
3. Robz - 93
4. Jimmmm - 160
5. ashersky - 150
6. faust - 92
8. manda - 31
9. Teproc - 68
11. 2.7 - 115
12. mcmcsalot - 58
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ashersky

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day2)
« Reply #1113 on: December 12, 2013, 12:13:05 am »

Thoughts...

Abnormally high for Jimmmm.
Walrus and Manda severely need to post more.
mcmc and Tep seem to be in the actilurker zone.

Everything else looks as one would expect.
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day2)
« Reply #1114 on: December 12, 2013, 12:29:32 am »

Thoughts...

Abnormally high for Jimmmm.
Walrus and Manda severely need to post more.
mcmc and Tep seem to be in the actilurker zone.

Everything else looks as one would expect.

It's abnormal because he's scum. Go with the simple explanation!
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Jimmmmm

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day2)
« Reply #1115 on: December 12, 2013, 12:49:08 am »

Thoughts...

Abnormally high for Jimmmm.
Walrus and Manda severely need to post more.
mcmc and Tep seem to be in the actilurker zone.

Everything else looks as one would expect.

It's abnormal because he's scum. Go with the simple explanation!

Occam's Razor, right?

Tell me again, why the Town read on ash?
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Jimmmmm

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day2)
« Reply #1116 on: December 12, 2013, 12:51:14 am »

Thoughts...

Abnormally high for Jimmmm.
Walrus and Manda severely need to post more.
mcmc and Tep seem to be in the actilurker zone.

Everything else looks as one would expect.

I don't always lurk when scum.
I was up there in DS9.
More recently, I was way out on top for at least some parts of RMM11.
Really, a high post count for me should at worst be a nulltell.
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Jimmmmm

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day2)
« Reply #1117 on: December 12, 2013, 12:52:03 am »

I don't always lurk when scum.

Whoops! Friskian scumslip! This of course should say "I don't always lurk when Town."
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Jimmmmm

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day2)
« Reply #1118 on: December 12, 2013, 12:52:39 am »

Still need a response from Walrus, manda and e.
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day2)
« Reply #1119 on: December 12, 2013, 12:57:46 am »

It's not just that town Jimm is a lurker, it's that his content is mild and unmemorable and inoffensive.

Here, you have been in the driver's seat, and you are raising questions like I've never seen from you before. Yo are different, AND you had the scummy reaction to the prospective Morgrim lynch.

My town read on ash is because this is the ash I know, although he is a little off, which is why I had the audacity to actually predict that this could be scum/scum.
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Jimmmmm

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day2)
« Reply #1120 on: December 12, 2013, 01:00:04 am »

It's not just that town Jimm is a lurker, it's that his content is mild and unmemorable and inoffensive.

Yeah I know. I'm boring. I realised this when I thought about what my meta description would be in that other game. I'm generally making an effort to spice things up a bit. See my first post or so in this game and RMM11 for examples.
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Jimmmmm

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day2)
« Reply #1121 on: December 12, 2013, 01:01:11 am »

Here, you have been in the driver's seat, and you are raising questions like I've never seen from you before. Yo are different, AND you had the scummy reaction to the prospective Morgrim lynch.

Don't you love playing a game in which you can promote doing something extremely anti-Town and then throw suspicion on someone who didn't want to do it?
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day2)
« Reply #1122 on: December 12, 2013, 01:03:00 am »

Here, you have been in the driver's seat, and you are raising questions like I've never seen from you before. Yo are different, AND you had the scummy reaction to the prospective Morgrim lynch.

Don't you love playing a game in which you can promote doing something extremely anti-Town and then throw suspicion on someone who didn't want to do it?

Yes! That was part of the reason to do it: See who dared to say the sane thing.
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day2)
« Reply #1123 on: December 12, 2013, 01:03:20 am »

And Jimm, I really love THIS Jimm. I hope you're not scum. But I can't shake the evidence, man.
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faust

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day2)
« Reply #1124 on: December 12, 2013, 02:33:14 am »

What do you mean, what was I trying to say? I was trying to say what I said, that based on the analysis I was quoting, those ere the scummy people.

I mean, why did you say my post was "good thinking" and at the same time paint two players as scummy that, according to my post, are less likely to be scum?
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