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Author Topic: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Game Over, Mafia Wins!)  (Read 167725 times)

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Teproc

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day2)
« Reply #950 on: December 06, 2013, 12:18:20 pm »

That kind of confidence is just insane. What if you're wrong ? What if e/ash/Robz is the scum team or something ? You've just guaranteed scum you're not going to vote for them. In fact, with 7 town alive, if youre town and you're wrong, it means ALL the other town players must vote correctly to lynch scum. Are you that sure that manda didn't repeat a mistake from the QT, and are you that confident in your read of ash ? If you are, you're just delusional.
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Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day2)
« Reply #951 on: December 06, 2013, 12:20:53 pm »

That kind of confidence is just insane. What if you're wrong ? What if e/ash/Robz is the scum team or something ? You've just guaranteed scum you're not going to vote for them. In fact, with 7 town alive, if youre town and you're wrong, it means ALL the other town players must vote correctly to lynch scum. Are you that sure that manda didn't repeat a mistake from the QT, and are you that confident in your read of ash ? If you are, you're just delusional.

I am making if/then statements. That is how the game is played.
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Teproc

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day2)
« Reply #952 on: December 06, 2013, 12:22:15 pm »

You are making them way too early is what I'm saying. POE is how you get to a lynch after content has been generated by everyone, not right at the start of the day.
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Jimmmmm

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day2)
« Reply #953 on: December 06, 2013, 12:22:50 pm »

That kind of confidence is just insane. What if you're wrong ? What if e/ash/Robz is the scum team or something ? You've just guaranteed scum you're not going to vote for them. In fact, with 7 town alive, if youre town and you're wrong, it means ALL the other town players must vote correctly to lynch scum. Are you that sure that manda didn't repeat a mistake from the QT, and are you that confident in your read of ash ? If you are, you're just delusional.

This. Generally scum's number one goal is to convince people they're Town. Taking people out of the lynch pool for "acting like their Town selves" is ridiculous. faust is an IC. e should be off the table for now in my opinion. Everyone is 100% fair game.
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Jimmmmm

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day2)
« Reply #954 on: December 06, 2013, 12:24:06 pm »

I am making if/then statements. That is how the game is played.

If Walrus, manda, Teproc, e and mcmcsalot are all Town, then the scum team is Volt/ash/Robz. Game over.
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Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day2)
« Reply #955 on: December 06, 2013, 12:26:03 pm »

You are making them way too early is what I'm saying. POE is how you get to a lynch after content has been generated by everyone, not right at the start of the day.

When did I say this was final?

That kind of confidence is just insane. What if you're wrong ? What if e/ash/Robz is the scum team or something ? You've just guaranteed scum you're not going to vote for them. In fact, with 7 town alive, if youre town and you're wrong, it means ALL the other town players must vote correctly to lynch scum. Are you that sure that manda didn't repeat a mistake from the QT, and are you that confident in your read of ash ? If you are, you're just delusional.

This. Generally scum's number one goal is to convince people they're Town. Taking people out of the lynch pool for "acting like their Town selves" is ridiculous. faust is an IC. e should be off the table for now in my opinion. Everyone is 100% fair game.

Obviously on your first statement. But there are such things as town!slips. I stand by my decision on ash for today. manda and Robz may go in or out, the list is not final. We'll see what they do today. I'd be very happy to lynch within my pool as it stands.
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Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day2)
« Reply #956 on: December 06, 2013, 12:26:56 pm »

I am making if/then statements. That is how the game is played.

If Walrus, manda, Teproc, e and mcmcsalot are all Town, then the scum team is Volt/ash/Robz. Game over.

That. Is. Not. What. I. Am. Doing.

I gave real reasons for why I took people (PROVISIONALLY!) out of the pool. What are yours for Walrus, manda, Teproc, e and mcmcsalot?
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mcmcsalot

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day2)
« Reply #957 on: December 06, 2013, 12:31:14 pm »

Okay I need to post as I go since there has been a lot of stuff.

This
vote: ashersky

Tell me I didn't just call that.

Along with this
I think it's amazing that I was able to predict it so accurately. As soon as I saw the NK that's what my brain screamed at me. You know, I didn't know if I should post it to be honest, because I felt like it would just look weird and paranoid. But I am of the mind that it's better to post your thoughts even if they're kind of crazy.

And I'm glad I did. Not so crazy at all.

Seem really scummy to me. I mean first off I got what ashersky did instantly, but that second post by walrus feels like scum getting really excited about a knock out case and then weirdly covering/explaining why it happened. Throw in some typical scum tells such as "wasn't sure if I should post and not wanting to look paraniod" I think this is really scummy.

Next page;
 2.7 reacts towny confused/angry about joke suspicion(he is coming across as a smart player I don't think he would complain about the joke suspicion if he was scum)
Jimm reacts like Jimm, null tell to be honest
Ash reacts like ash, null tell as well.

Have not read past that will contuniue while posting.
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day2)
« Reply #958 on: December 06, 2013, 12:40:27 pm »

This
vote: ashersky

Tell me I didn't just call that.

Along with this
I think it's amazing that I was able to predict it so accurately. As soon as I saw the NK that's what my brain screamed at me. You know, I didn't know if I should post it to be honest, because I felt like it would just look weird and paranoid. But I am of the mind that it's better to post your thoughts even if they're kind of crazy.

And I'm glad I did. Not so crazy at all.

Seem really scummy to me. I mean first off I got what ashersky did instantly, but that second post by walrus feels like scum getting really excited about a knock out case and then weirdly covering/explaining why it happened. Throw in some typical scum tells such as "wasn't sure if I should post and not wanting to look paraniod" I think this is really scummy.

This is a very good point.

vote: Walrus
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mcmcsalot

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day2)
« Reply #959 on: December 06, 2013, 12:43:22 pm »

Wagon analysis from ash which I think is always not really useful when done from a are they on or off perspective, it's just wifom. Scumm read I ash for that, as well as the way he goes about his analysis.

Jimm/ash get into another debate and Jimm changes topic to walrus. Town vs town or town vs scum, you lose when you argue with ash(mans got talent) so null tell from what would have been a scum read on Jimm.

Oh, looks like round two went on a bit longer. Null tell from both because guess what town argues to...and that's all they were doing, arguing.

Stopped just befor Faust post.
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
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mcmcsalot

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day2)
« Reply #960 on: December 06, 2013, 12:48:33 pm »

Faust and teproc posts read.

Teproc had a lot of bulk that meant nothing. If scum leaves 2.7
Alive they leave us guessing, they know if they can make us lynch another of our own pr's by not believing him. Or he could be scum doesn't matter either way the nk won't help us figure out 2.7 alignment unless 2.7 dies.

I think 2.7 has actually been towny today so slight scum read on teproc for pushing a 2.7 scum read based on nothing.
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day2)
« Reply #961 on: December 06, 2013, 12:52:53 pm »

Faust and teproc posts read.

Teproc had a lot of bulk that meant nothing. If scum leaves 2.7
Alive they leave us guessing, they know if they can make us lynch another of our own pr's by not believing him. Or he could be scum doesn't matter either way the nk won't help us figure out 2.7 alignment unless 2.7 dies.

I think 2.7 has actually been towny today so slight scum read on teproc for pushing a 2.7 scum read based on nothing.

I didn't take that as Teproc pushing a scum read, I took that as Teproc being cautious. If Teproc had voted/advocated lynching 2.7 today that would be a different story.
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manda2014

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day2)
« Reply #962 on: December 06, 2013, 12:53:07 pm »

What ?

We're not even 24 hours into day 2 and your lynch pool is 4 people ? That makes no sense. What warrants excluding ash, manda and Robz when 2 of these people have barely posted today ? Having town reads on them, why not, but starting POE on such little material (manda and Robz being wrong on setup, what's the reason for ash again ?) is downright stupid.

Waitwaitwait... when was I wrong on the setup?
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Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day2)
« Reply #963 on: December 06, 2013, 12:54:56 pm »

What ?

We're not even 24 hours into day 2 and your lynch pool is 4 people ? That makes no sense. What warrants excluding ash, manda and Robz when 2 of these people have barely posted today ? Having town reads on them, why not, but starting POE on such little material (manda and Robz being wrong on setup, what's the reason for ash again ?) is downright stupid.

Waitwaitwait... when was I wrong on the setup?

Well then, I'll try to be a good IC for you all.

Before we really get started, I would like everyone to answer the following question:

If you were mafia in this game, which (if any) powers would you have picked?

Everyone's answer should include his preferred set of powers (as mafia). Don't just say "well, this looks neat, but maybe I would have also chosen that."

Think about whether this is actually a good idea or not. I think in the past pick your poison setups, we determined it was not. It helps the Mafia determine who has which PR.

I haven't read any past games with a similar set-up to this one, but I think Robz makes a good point. Since there's not a way to get that info to the IC privately and let him interpret it without everyone knowing, it seems like it would give way too much information to the mafia.
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mcmcsalot

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Night1)
« Reply #964 on: December 06, 2013, 12:55:05 pm »

Okay sure. But this isn't about Robz is it? This is about my reaction to it. Do you think it makes sense for me from a Town point of view to not give Robz the Town points?

Yes. But it makes more sense for you, as scum, to quickly shut down Robz (and manda, but you wouldn't know that) becoming an IC. You don't know how town is going to take his comment, so just steer the reaction the way you want it to go.

I cannot for the live of me find the other post that makes you scummy though, that is the one that has been hanging around in the back of my mind. It had to do with mcmc and I thought it was related to the D1 ash/Jimmmmm fight.

Do you mean my first post of Day 2, and mcmc saying that I've been called out for that before but he couldn't remember my alignment?

I believe he is referring to day 1, we got into a omgusish thing for I believe the same discussion about giving robz town cred. If I remember found robz towny(not just for that) you disagreed I voted you for you opinion on robz and volt and you claimed omgus. I believe jorbles got involved somehow as how.
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

Teproc

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day2)
« Reply #965 on: December 06, 2013, 12:56:06 pm »

Ok, it's true that scum could be trying to frame him and lead me to my reasoning. Again, I wasn't "pushing" for a lynch, just trying to see what we could get out of the Jorbles flip, but then you seem to love using that phrase against me for some reason.

PPE : manda : I think you did early on and Voltaire is giving you town points (and even taking you out of his lynch pool... sigh) for that.
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mcmcsalot

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Night1)
« Reply #966 on: December 06, 2013, 12:56:59 pm »

I did say something earlyish Day 1 about mcmc's play reading scummy to me and him reminding me of scum mcmc in DS9. He's still a slight scumread for me, and I'll have another look at this at some point.

That's it!

It's not at all what I remembered. unvote

Or this
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Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Night1)
« Reply #967 on: December 06, 2013, 12:58:29 pm »

I did say something earlyish Day 1 about mcmc's play reading scummy to me and him reminding me of scum mcmc in DS9. He's still a slight scumread for me, and I'll have another look at this at some point.

That's it!

It's not at all what I remembered. unvote

Or this

Actually it's not at all what I remembered - because your summary is what I'm remembering, but I can't find the posts! You described it just now. Can you send me to the post numbers?
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manda2014

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day2)
« Reply #968 on: December 06, 2013, 01:01:36 pm »

That kind of confidence is just insane. What if you're wrong ? What if e/ash/Robz is the scum team or something ? You've just guaranteed scum you're not going to vote for them. In fact, with 7 town alive, if youre town and you're wrong, it means ALL the other town players must vote correctly to lynch scum. Are you that sure that manda didn't repeat a mistake from the QT, and are you that confident in your read of ash ? If you are, you're just delusional.

This. Generally scum's number one goal is to convince people they're Town. Taking people out of the lynch pool for "acting like their Town selves" is ridiculous. faust is an IC. e should be off the table for now in my opinion. Everyone is 100% fair game.

This is essentially what I was trying to say early on about too much meta-analysis not being helpful. People generally know how they normally act, and if they're scum, they're going to be extra careful to sound just like they do when they're town.
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Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day2)
« Reply #969 on: December 06, 2013, 01:02:30 pm »

This is essentially what I was trying to say early on about too much meta-analysis not being helpful. People generally know how they normally act, and if they're scum, they're going to be extra careful to sound just like they do when they're town.

Of course that's what scum is always trying to do. It sounds simple, but it isn't simple.
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manda2014

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Night1)
« Reply #970 on: December 06, 2013, 01:04:04 pm »

Okay sure. But this isn't about Robz is it? This is about my reaction to it. Do you think it makes sense for me from a Town point of view to not give Robz the Town points?

Yes. But it makes more sense for you, as scum, to quickly shut down Robz (and manda, but you wouldn't know that) becoming an IC. You don't know how town is going to take his comment, so just steer the reaction the way you want it to go.

I cannot for the live of me find the other post that makes you scummy though, that is the one that has been hanging around in the back of my mind. It had to do with mcmc and I thought it was related to the D1 ash/Jimmmmm fight.

Do you mean my first post of Day 2, and mcmc saying that I've been called out for that before but he couldn't remember my alignment?

I believe he is referring to day 1, we got into a omgusish thing for I believe the same discussion about giving robz town cred. If I remember found robz towny(not just for that) you disagreed I voted you for you opinion on robz and volt and you claimed omgus. I believe jorbles got involved somehow as how.

hmmmm I'm gonna go reread that.
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manda2014

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Night1)
« Reply #971 on: December 06, 2013, 01:18:22 pm »

Okay sure. But this isn't about Robz is it? This is about my reaction to it. Do you think it makes sense for me from a Town point of view to not give Robz the Town points?

Yes. But it makes more sense for you, as scum, to quickly shut down Robz (and manda, but you wouldn't know that) becoming an IC. You don't know how town is going to take his comment, so just steer the reaction the way you want it to go.

I cannot for the live of me find the other post that makes you scummy though, that is the one that has been hanging around in the back of my mind. It had to do with mcmc and I thought it was related to the D1 ash/Jimmmmm fight.

Do you mean my first post of Day 2, and mcmc saying that I've been called out for that before but he couldn't remember my alignment?

I believe he is referring to day 1, we got into a omgusish thing for I believe the same discussion about giving robz town cred. If I remember found robz towny(not just for that) you disagreed I voted you for you opinion on robz and volt and you claimed omgus. I believe jorbles got involved somehow as how.

hmmmm I'm gonna go reread that.

Fairly certain this didn't actually happen.

Aaaanyway.

Okay I need to post as I go since there has been a lot of stuff.

This
vote: ashersky

Tell me I didn't just call that.

Along with this
I think it's amazing that I was able to predict it so accurately. As soon as I saw the NK that's what my brain screamed at me. You know, I didn't know if I should post it to be honest, because I felt like it would just look weird and paranoid. But I am of the mind that it's better to post your thoughts even if they're kind of crazy.

And I'm glad I did. Not so crazy at all.

Seem really scummy to me. I mean first off I got what ashersky did instantly, but that second post by walrus feels like scum getting really excited about a knock out case and then weirdly covering/explaining why it happened. Throw in some typical scum tells such as "wasn't sure if I should post and not wanting to look paraniod" I think this is really scummy.

Next page;
 2.7 reacts towny confused/angry about joke suspicion(he is coming across as a smart player I don't think he would complain about the joke suspicion if he was scum)
Jimm reacts like Jimm, null tell to be honest
Ash reacts like ash, null tell as well.

Have not read past that will contuniue while posting.


I'm still trying to figure out how I feel about Walrus's posts here. On the one hand, mcmc's interpretation of it makes a lot of sense, BUT... I'm also inclined to think that he was almost TOO self-congratulatory in that post for it to be scum (or at least for it to be scum played well). It's so very "oh look what I did" that it seems too sloppy for scum.
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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Night1)
« Reply #972 on: December 06, 2013, 05:24:14 pm »

Ok.  I have been reading everything that has happened since I left last night and trying to make sense of it all.  Here we go:

Jimmmmm:  I find the case on him (described best by Voltaire and that is what I am using as the "official" case against Jimmmmm - correct me if you think differently) to be rather underwhelming.  As far as his exchange with Ashersky goes, I didn't get any huge scum reads from it.  In fact, it looked a lot more like town/town arguing with each other in my opinion.

Ashersky: As I just said, the Jimmmmm exchange looked like town/town arguing to me.  However, Jorbles had a scum read on Ash enough to make him want to vote, so would scum!Ash NK jorbles for that?  I don't think so, especially since Ash is the only scum read Jorbles had that we can actually do much with.  (Manda and myself were the other two.  Manda because of her vote on Jorbles but there is really not much there to look into since Manda disappeared the rest of the Day.  Me because I was making jokes that he thought were scummy but then after my claim he delayed lynching me until we had some night data.)

Walrus: Not getting the joke right away is fine.  But his original post very much looked like a "I will put this out so no one can challenge me on it today without being scummy because I said so."  so slightly scummy.  I do not really see him as scummy for his reaction to Ash, but rather that original post trying to stop accusations before they happen.

Voltaire: Interesting posts so far today, and helpful.  I don't quite know whether his assertiveness is his scumhunting style (as he told Manda and myself, you scumhunt on your own) or whether it is actually scummy by his own declaration here:
Town is unsure. Mafia picks reasonable-sounding stances.
Because I have to admit, he is well on his way to convincing me of his position.  I just don't have that good of a feeling about Voltaire right now.  Not based on a scum read.  Just not a town read either.  Null read.  (I hate null reads, and am therefore uncomfortable about Voltaire right now)  So nothing on Voltaire yet, but he is on my watch carefully list.

Robz: No posts today? oh well.  Real life happens

Manda:
Obviously I was on the [Jorbles] wagon, for (real life and in-game) reasons I think were justified--there was little enough information to go on that I was comfortable with a random lynch that would provide more information, and I knew that I wouldn't have time to commit to any serious analysis. However, the fact that he got NK'd definitely adds a new dimension to that wagon.
I am still uncomfortable with Manda's Jorbles vote.  The NK does bring an interesting dimension to it.  It also makes me suspect Manda more as town similar to the way I suspect Ash more as town because of the NK.  Because of the way she voted on the wagon, and how it makes her look after the NK, would she be so bold as to off the person she voted for just before disappearing?  I don't think so.

Teproc/mcmc:  neither of them have said much today at all.  So I don't really have much to say about them right now.  mcmc did help convince Voltaire to vote walrus.  Teproc said he was rereading me.  I need a bit more time to figure out about them.

I didn't mean for this to become a scummary (I will call them that for the rest of this game) but it became on (of sorts).  Big takeaway: The NK shifted D1 scum reads on Manda and Ashersky to town reads.  So either this NK was brilliant by scum (if at least one of them is scum) or it was a blunder (if both Ash and Manda are town). 
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Teproc

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day2)
« Reply #973 on: December 06, 2013, 06:09:00 pm »

Walrus: Not getting the joke right away is fine.  But his original post very much looked like a "I will put this out so no one can challenge me on it today without being scummy because I said so."  so slightly scummy.  I do not really see him as scummy for his reaction to Ash, but rather that original post trying to stop accusations before they happen.

This is very true (the part about lampshading your own scumminess being scummy).

I won't reread you actually, because I've been convinced that the NK doesn't actually tell us anything about you, and we're better off waiting. I don't like it, but we can't risk lynching another PR. Instead, I'll reread Walrus. I had a town read on him day 1 but his interaction with ash was very scummy (as has been pointed out by mcmc).
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WalrusMcFishSr

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day2)
« Reply #974 on: December 06, 2013, 06:30:16 pm »

Yeah yeah I know. Not one of my finer moments. I thought I had done something extremely brilliant, instead I acted very foolish. Quite embarrassing...it sort of makes me want to crawl under a rock and just try again next game lol.

Give me a minute and I'll take a look at what has transpired since then.
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