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Author Topic: Simulator able to do small number of turns?  (Read 8745 times)

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Toskk

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Simulator able to do small number of turns?
« on: October 28, 2013, 01:46:08 pm »
+1

I was hoping someone may know of an existing simulator that can accomplish this.. but I'm wanting to simulate (only) the first four turns of a game, and then determine the percentage distribution of all possible decks.

For example, going Big Money, after four turns what is the percentage breakdown of four silver buys vs. a gold in there? Repeat for various 4/3 and 5/2 openers. I'm really interested in the buying power of the deck after four turns, if that helps (i.e. how many gold and/or silver does the deck contain).

Is there an existing simulator that can handle something like this? :)
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DStu

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Re: Simulator able to do small number of turns?
« Reply #1 on: October 28, 2013, 02:27:14 pm »
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I don't think one of them does this by default, if you are willing to set up dominiate i guess it's about 10 lines of code to et it do what you want.  But it's not that easy to set up without expirience, i don't know your background, i could make a branch that does what you want
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Toskk

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Re: Simulator able to do small number of turns?
« Reply #2 on: October 28, 2013, 02:36:41 pm »
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I don't think one of them does this by default, if you are willing to set up dominiate i guess it's about 10 lines of code to et it do what you want.  But it's not that easy to set up without expirience, i don't know your background, i could make a branch that does what you want

Hi DStu,

I'm comfortable-enough with coding that I could *probably* hack my way through the necessary changes, but I haven't looked at Dominiate's coding at all before.. so if it would be quick for you to do, that would be awesome (not to mention probably save me a lot of time fumbling around)! ;) Will it be able to output deck percentage breakdowns, though? Dominiate's output (like other simulators) is focused on win/loss ratios, but I actually want to see the deck buying power (averaged is fine) at the fourth-turn state.
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DStu

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Re: Simulator able to do small number of turns?
« Reply #3 on: October 28, 2013, 02:56:39 pm »
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I don't think one of them does this by default, if you are willing to set up dominiate i guess it's about 10 lines of code to et it do what you want.  But it's not that easy to set up without expirience, i don't know your background, i could make a branch that does what you want

Hi DStu,

I'm comfortable-enough with coding that I could *probably* hack my way through the necessary changes, but I haven't looked at Dominiate's coding at all before.. so if it would be quick for you to do, that would be awesome (not to mention probably save me a lot of time fumbling around)! ;) Will it be able to output deck percentage breakdowns, though? Dominiate's output (like other simulators) is focused on win/loss ratios, but I actually want to see the deck buying power (averaged is fine) at the fourth-turn state.
Depensds on how pretty it should look, this is limitied by my design talent (which is a strong limit) i could easily get some statistics into the game logs or somewhere on the site, nicegraphs will take time.  Have time on friday.
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meandering mercury

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Re: Simulator able to do small number of turns?
« Reply #4 on: October 28, 2013, 03:34:48 pm »
+1

You probably already know this but in case you don't, you can first consult

http://dominionstrategy.com/2011/03/09/basic-opening-probabilities/

and

http://dominionstrategy.com/2011/06/21/opening-probabilities-part-ii/

Moneylender covers Silver/Silver-like cases; Bishop is kinda like a generic +$1; Sea Hag is like a +$0. What other probabilities are you looking to get?
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Sparafucile

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Re: Simulator able to do small number of turns?
« Reply #5 on: October 28, 2013, 03:52:49 pm »
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Quote
but I actually want to see the deck buying power (averaged is fine) at the fourth-turn state.

Are you looking for someothing like this?  It's an average graph of the buying power per turn .... (Big Money vs Big Money Bishop)
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Toskk

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Re: Simulator able to do small number of turns?
« Reply #6 on: October 28, 2013, 04:36:21 pm »
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@Sparafucile,

Yeah, that's *probably* enough information right there. What sim is that? :) You can choose turn 4 there specifically, it looks like? :)

@MeanderingMercury,

Yes, I've looked through those opening probabilities quite a lot.. and I can do them by hand, if necessary, but I'd really rather not, if a sim can do them for me. ;)

Ultimately, I'm interested in (once again) building a method of determining opener 'strength' into my card picker program, to provide an option for minimizing the impact of the 4/3 vs. 5/2 split on the game 'decisions'. I'm not entirely sure if attacks and heavy trashing can be adequately evaluated in terms of opening strength, however. :P
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Sparafucile

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Re: Simulator able to do small number of turns?
« Reply #7 on: October 28, 2013, 04:51:20 pm »
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Quote
What sim is that? :)

Dominulator: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=9566.0

I also just added a bunch of graphs like this one - as inspired by your question.
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DStu

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Re: Simulator able to do small number of turns?
« Reply #8 on: October 28, 2013, 04:55:53 pm »
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@Sparafucile,

Yeah, that's *probably* enough information right there. What sim is that? :) You can choose turn 4 there specifically, it looks like? :)

@MeanderingMercury,

Yes, I've looked through those opening probabilities quite a lot.. and I can do them by hand, if necessary, but I'd really rather not, if a sim can do them for me. ;)

Ultimately, I'm interested in (once again) building a method of determining opener 'strength' into my card picker program, to provide an option for minimizing the impact of the 4/3 vs. 5/2 split on the game 'decisions'. I'm not entirely sure if attacks and heavy trashing can be adequately evaluated in terms of opening strength, however. :P
Money graph isalso in dominiate...
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Toskk

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Re: Simulator able to do small number of turns?
« Reply #9 on: October 28, 2013, 05:34:00 pm »
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Money graph isalso in dominiate...

Yeah, I looked at Dominiate.. but I wasn't able to figure out how to get it to output an exact value for the average coin amount available at turn x? i.e. labels for the graphed values. Also, it looks like, for the purposes of evaluating the opening strength of various attacks and heavy trashers, I'd need to evaluate the strength of the deck a whole lot later than turn 4. :P Chapel/Witch, for example, doesn't visibly start stomping BM until around turn 10. :P Hmm..

Edit: I forgot to mention the other item that I wasn't able to figure out a way to do in Dominiate.. simulate a (fixed) 5/2 opening for one player vs. a variable (either 4/3 or 5/2) for the other. e.g. How does a Chapel/Witch opening do against both 4/3 and 5/2 BM openings? :P
« Last Edit: October 28, 2013, 06:03:53 pm by Toskk »
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SCSN

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Re: Simulator able to do small number of turns?
« Reply #10 on: October 28, 2013, 09:31:13 pm »
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Ultimately, I'm interested in (once again) building a method of determining opener 'strength' into my card picker program, to provide an option for minimizing the impact of the 4/3 vs. 5/2 split on the game 'decisions'. I'm not entirely sure if attacks and heavy trashing can be adequately evaluated in terms of opening strength, however. :P

Early buying power negatively correlates with a strategy's long-term strength when you consider reasonable strategies only (e.g. not things like opening double Curse).
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Toskk

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Re: Simulator able to do small number of turns?
« Reply #11 on: October 28, 2013, 11:37:09 pm »
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Ultimately, I'm interested in (once again) building a method of determining opener 'strength' into my card picker program, to provide an option for minimizing the impact of the 4/3 vs. 5/2 split on the game 'decisions'. I'm not entirely sure if attacks and heavy trashing can be adequately evaluated in terms of opening strength, however. :P

Early buying power negatively correlates with a strategy's long-term strength when you consider reasonable strategies only (e.g. not things like opening double Curse).

Umm.. can you provide examples of this? Treating card draw as effective treasure amounts, I don't really see how that is possible (barring deck-junking attack strategies). Smithy/Silver, for example, is mathematically superior to Silver/Silver specifically because the effective treasure value of the +3 cards is greater than that of the Silver (for the vast majority of the game).

Yes, strategies that involve degrading the value of the opponent's deck may negatively correlate with the deck's (early) buying power.. that's one of the reasons I'm interested in using a simulator for this analysis. For example, as mentioned above, if I compare the buying power of Chapel/Witch vs. Big Money, Chapel/Witch doesn't pull ahead until around turn 8-10.. so I'd need to evaluate the relative value of these two at about the turn 8-10 range in order for this method of analyzing the relative strength of 5/2 vs 4/3 openings to work.

Edit: I take it back slightly.. strategies involving VP chip accumulation, or some mega-turn strategies, can't be evaluated using an effective-buying-power method.
« Last Edit: October 28, 2013, 11:51:30 pm by Toskk »
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florrat

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Re: Simulator able to do small number of turns?
« Reply #12 on: October 28, 2013, 11:54:46 pm »
+1

Umm.. can you provide examples of this? Treating card draw as effective treasure amounts, I don't really see how that is possible (barring deck-junking attack strategies). Smithy/Silver, for example, is mathematically superior to Silver/Silver specifically because the effective treasure value of the +3 cards is greater than that of the Silver (for the vast majority of the game).

Yes, strategies that involve degrading the value of the opponent's deck may negatively correlate with the deck's (early) buying power.. that's one of the reasons I'm interested in using a simulator for this analysis. For example, as mentioned above, if I compare the buying power of Chapel/Witch vs. Big Money, Chapel/Witch doesn't pull ahead until around turn 8-10.. so I'd need to evaluate the relative value of these two at about the turn 8-10 range in order for this method of analyzing the relative strength of 5/2 vs 4/3 openings to work.
Well, most trashers really improve the deck while they degrade the buying power (or give buying power which is often less than silver). Also gainers don't give much buying power...

And there are quite a few strategies who aren't (even in long-term) aiming for buying power (at least not as their main goal), for example:
-Garden/Silk Road rushes
-Vineyard strategies
-Combo's like NV/Bridge or Hermit/MS.

What, I think, would give pretty much information is the "average deck" after X turns. For example, for Big Money the average deck after 4 turns would look something like

3 Estates
7 Copper
3.4 Silver
0.4 Gold
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SCSN

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Re: Simulator able to do small number of turns?
« Reply #13 on: October 29, 2013, 09:55:18 am »
+1

Umm.. can you provide examples of this?

Sure. Florrat already covered the gist of it, but here's some more:

Quote
Treating card draw as effective treasure amounts, I don't really see how that is possible

Treating card draw as effective treasure amounts is an acceptable approach only when you consider Big Money strategies, that is, when you ignore almost everything Dominion is really about.

The usual pattern of building an engine is to first get rid of most if not all of your junk (starting Coppers and Estates), then work on your draw until you can reliably draw your deck each turn, and then start improving your buying/gaining power. In practice you can't always follow this pattern of course, e.g. if the only trasher is Forge, you have to invest in some economy first; if it's Mint you want some good draw to trash a lot of Coppers at once, but the general pattern shows why early buying power is a very poor indicator of anything.

An example game where I trash down to only 6 cards after T8, at which point my only buying power comes from a Market and a Count. I proceed to gain a whole bunch of stuff (including Duchies for VP) by developing Fortresses, and the only real "buying power" I eventually amass is but an unfortunate side-effect of playing a Pillage each turn, for Spoils are not much better than Curses in a Double-Tactician engine. If you'd do a buying-power/turn analysis, my strategy would be judged as really awful, yet it worked out pretty good ;)

Another example, here I go for some early buying power because I want the Forge, but then I trash down to only $4 buying power halfway T12, after which I bring it back up to $8. I could actually build it quite a bit further, say, to $16. A "buying power" analysis would conclude that this is better, but it's not: due to the lack of +buy, 16 is as good as 8. Furthermore, such an analysis would also say that a strategy that does not use 2 Forges to trash Fortresses into Provinces but does get to 8 a little faster is better, yet it clearly isn't.

These aren't exceptions, they are specific examples of the general rule that in actual high-level Dominion play Big Money strategies (and hence BM-focused analysis as well) are usually irrelevant. The only reason they feature prominently in discussions on this forum (particularly when simulation is concerned) is that they are very easy to learn, and for beginners they are thus a great way to quickly improve their play (which until then consisted mostly of "buy the shiniest card you can afford"), and for simulators they are easy to implement. If, however, you've been playing Dominion for more than a few weeks, or you've progressed beyond your first "hello world, look at me, I can play Big Money!" strategy in a simulator, their only use is as a baseline against which to compare other strategies, for if your envisioned strategy can't even beat Big Money, you can dismiss it right away.
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Toskk

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Re: Simulator able to do small number of turns?
« Reply #14 on: October 29, 2013, 12:17:48 pm »
0

Treating card draw as effective treasure amounts is an acceptable approach only when you consider Big Money strategies, that is, when you ignore almost everything Dominion is really about.

An example game where I trash down to only 6 cards after T8, at which point my only buying power comes from a Market and a Count. I proceed to gain a whole bunch of stuff (including Duchies for VP) by developing Fortresses, and the only real "buying power" I eventually amass is but an unfortunate side-effect of playing a Pillage each turn, for Spoils are not much better than Curses in a Double-Tactician engine. If you'd do a buying-power/turn analysis, my strategy would be judged as really awful, yet it worked out pretty good ;)

Another example, here I go for some early buying power because I want the Forge, but then I trash down to only $4 buying power halfway T12, after which I bring it back up to $8. I could actually build it quite a bit further, say, to $16. A "buying power" analysis would conclude that this is better, but it's not: due to the lack of +buy, 16 is as good as 8. Furthermore, such an analysis would also say that a strategy that does not use 2 Forges to trash Fortresses into Provinces but does get to 8 a little faster is better, yet it clearly isn't.

Hi SheCan'tSayNo,

I think I haven't been clear-enough as to the intent of the analysis. I'm not looking to play an entire match using an effective-treasure-value method. I'm interested in developing another method (my previous one used the councilroom.com best and worst buys data) for determining (and minimizing) the potential discrepancy between the 'best' 5/2 opener and the 'best' 4/3 opener on the outcome of a match (i.e. artificial kingdom selection). Basically, a checkbox option for the card picker program (found here, in case you're interested: http://inprogressgaming.com/dominion-card-picker/) that would attempt to compare the best-available 5/2 opening with the best-available 4/3 opening, and throw out the kingdom set if the strength discrepancy (e.g. the likelihood of the 4/3 player to immediately capitulate on seeing their opponent open with the 5/2) was outside of a specific range. As something like the councilroom.com best and worst buys data isn't available anymore, I've been looking for another method of approximating this same kind of data, and I'm currently looking into the possibility of evaluating the starting/early-game deck using effective-treasure-value methods to do this.

Looking at your two example games there, yes, both of them involved 'upgrade'-focused strategies (the first one being a Fortress -> Duchy Develop 3-pile game, and the second being a Fortress -> Province Forge game), which would certainly cause an effective-treasure-value analysis some problems mid-to-late-game.. but if you look at only your opening buys, in both cases you follow the effective-treasure-value method to the letter:

In your first match you open Count/-, with a higher effective-treasure-value (potential) than any other 5/2 opening available (thanks to the +3 coins available on Count). In your second match you open Conspirator/Silver, once again, when taking into consideration the (eventual) opportunity to activate Conspirator's draw ability, the highest effective-treasure-value opener available for a 4/3 opening.

But once again, I'm interested in using this method to evaluate the Kingdom selection, rather than the specific plays. In your first match, Wareagle opened Silver/Silver against your Count/-. I certainly wouldn't say that match came down to luck on the opener.. you played a very different strategy than Wareagle did. So an effective-treasure-value method of kingdom selection would need to not rule that opening strength difference as 'too great'. In your second match, you opened Conspirator/Silver against Masterpiece+1/Silver, both of which come out a bit 'stronger' for effective-treasure-value than something like Rabble/-, and somewhat similar to the value of Cache/-. Neither of you got the 5/2 opening, but again I wouldn't think that an effective-treasure-value comparison of those 5/2 options to the 4/3 options would have suggested that one or the other was out-of-line strong or weak.
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flies

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Re: Simulator able to do small number of turns?
« Reply #15 on: October 29, 2013, 04:25:22 pm »
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I don't think you're goign to convince anyone that money density after 4 turns  (or any other $ based metric) is the end-all and be-all way to measure the discrepancy you're after, though I might be a bit more sympathetic to it than SCSN.  The effects of trashers, attacks, and gainers are all ignored by that kind of metric (or at you don't see their full benefits), and that means you're missing a lot.  Money is always useful, but it's not always the priority.

That's not to say that as an approximation, the metric you're suggesting isn't worth investigating. If you got it working, you could look at what kinds of boards it rejects, and ask whether it's filtering out the right things.
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Toskk

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Re: Simulator able to do small number of turns?
« Reply #16 on: October 29, 2013, 04:36:07 pm »
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I don't think you're goign to convince anyone that money density after 4 turns  (or any other $ based metric) is the end-all and be-all way to measure the discrepancy you're after, though I might be a bit more sympathetic to it than SCSN.  The effects of trashers, attacks, and gainers are all ignored by that kind of metric (or at you don't see their full benefits), and that means you're missing a lot.  Money is always useful, but it's not always the priority.

That's not to say that as an approximation, the metric you're suggesting isn't worth investigating. If you got it working, you could look at what kinds of boards it rejects, and ask whether it's filtering out the right things.

Hi Flies,

Oh I agree.. overall I was much happier with using the councilroom.com best and worst buys database, and I really wish a new version of it could be built around Goko's logs. :P Even that, though, had definite problems at times, based on the exact Kingdom composition (in particular with combo cards that are bought right after the openers). An effective-treasure-value assessment after 4 turns (or 8, or 10, or any number of turns) seems like a pretty crude method of checking for overly-strong 5/2 or 4/3 openers, but I'm at a loss for coming up with a better one currently. :P Also important is the question of just how 'close' does the 'best' 5/2 vs. 4/3 opening need to be, for players not to feel like the match came down to just opening split luck. For example, if Witch/Chapel (or god forbid something like Mint/Fool's Gold) is available as an opener, what 4/3 opening is 'good enough' to still have a competitive/non-luck-based match? That's somewhat subjective, certainly, and based on the opinions of the players involved.
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flies

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Re: Simulator able to do small number of turns?
« Reply #17 on: October 29, 2013, 04:39:09 pm »
0

of course, if you're playing IRL you can just have symmetric opening turns...
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Toskk

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Re: Simulator able to do small number of turns?
« Reply #18 on: October 29, 2013, 04:46:55 pm »
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of course, if you're playing IRL you can just have symmetric opening turns...

*hehe* This is very true. ;) A lot of players don't seem to like this option (maybe because it's more of a house 'rule'), though. Not to mention I don't know of any tournament/competition that uses symmetric opening turns. Artificial kingdom selection, though, is often used for competitive play, so having the option to have a card picker automatically check for really lopsided 5/2 vs. 4/3 split openers makes sense to me.. provided I can come up with some method of adequately (and on average) evaluating the relative 'strength' of each 5/2 and 4/3 opener pair available in the Kingdom. :P
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Re: Simulator able to do small number of turns?
« Reply #19 on: October 30, 2013, 04:03:00 pm »
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In my opinion, the most efficient solution to your problem is probably making a list like Qvist, i.e., collecting the wisdom of the community. In contrast to his list, you would not ask for the strength of the cards but of the suitability as an opening buy. To make it easier, I would introduce a few tiers, e.g.,
  • Best tier: I always open with this card. (99/100 games*)
  • Top tier: Only in very few games it is possible to ignore this card as an opener. (9/10 games*)
  • Good tier: I frequently buy this card as opener. (7/10 games*)
  • Average tier: On some boards, this card is suitable as a opener. (4/10 games*)
  • Odd tier: Usually, I prefer Silver/Nothing**, but occasionally this card is better. (1/10 games*)
  • Bad tier: I'd always prefer Silver/Nothing** to this card. (1/100 games*)
*= of the games it is present and my initial card distribution would allow for it, i.e., for Witch consider only games where you open 5/2
**= Silver for cards costing 3 or more, Nothing for cards costing less than 3

If you get a sufficient amount of people to contribute to such a list, you will have a reasonable estimate for the strengths of the openers. Then I would try to always include a similar amount of the important tiers in the 3 and 5 price category.
Now that I think about it, one should probably also rank silver.

Alternatively one could make this ranking once for 5/2 and once for 4/3 (ignoring Baker and Nomad Camp).
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DStu

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Re: Simulator able to do small number of turns?
« Reply #20 on: November 01, 2013, 06:22:33 am »
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Sorry, I felt a bit ill this week and think I will take the day to recover, and not with programming.

Anyhow, I have the impression that maybe we should do a serious implementation of some variants, which will also take a bit more work as a quick-and-dirty hack to abort after some turns and output some statistics in an inappropriate part of the site (which would have been my take)
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