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[Voltaire]

Resuming re-read...

Yuma keeps on defending Walrus. Like really defending Walrus. Like what if we lynch Walrus (which seemed possible at the time), yuma would have to know that this would make him look suspicious. I guess knock down the odds they're partners a little bit, but 2-man game you have to keep your partner and all that. If yuma is town he just doesn't like the case, if he's scum he's going for towncred maybe more than saving a partner?

At one point yuma says he wants to lynch (mail-mi, chairs, EFHW, eevee, faust) and not (voltaire, Robz, Walrus, yuma) on D1. Obviously some of this changed, and I added flips from my POV.

Yuma just really drives the faust mislynch. Which if he's scum he has to know is a mislynch and how it will look. So...is it because it's avoiding his partner? No, he could have shifted to Robz.  He also drove EFHW today, he couldn't know she'd "flip" town today instead of tomorrow...where I am going with all of this is tiny tiny tiny town points for yuma about this.

Eevee comes out against a Robz lynch when it's at L-1, Robz says look off his wagon for scum (except chairsTeproc, so that's also yuma, Eevee, mail-mi [and EFHW who is now town]).

Fun post by yuma to review, I don't know what to make of it but everyone should read it! Click below!!!

Oh man and this one too!

Now the wagon on me... it's already late D1, and the wagons on Robz and Walrus don't seem to end in a lynch. Scum needs a viable lynch candidate that isn't them. yuma has been pushing me a long time, and is perceived as a good player and a driving force by town. Agreeing with him will not look too bad, even if he's wrong. I think scum is likely to jump this wagon now, and that makes mail-mi and chairs look quite suspicious.

This is a very good point, if you are town. I am very interested in seeing what players who I have townier reads on (robz, walrus and voltaire to an extent think of this case) because it is concerning when the only players agreeing with me are on the scummier side... one seemingly doing so for survival reasons...

So this all makes it confusing now because maybe mail-mi and Teproc DO need to go back in. In which case we're ****ed because I don't know how to vote and the deadline is soon-ish.

But the problem with Teproc is that he's the one who pointed out the vote-hopping chairs did. That argument just blew up with EFHW. So take Teproc out? Add in mail-mi? Consider mail-mi teams? Ugh.

Crap, I forgot chairs was a growing wagon when he /outed.

My ONE MISLYNCH FOREVER is also another argument for town!yuma now after faust's flip.

unvote.

So yeah.

Also let's remember this:

Vote Count 1.Final:

Eevee(1): Faust
WalrusMcFishSr (1): Eevee
Voltaire(2): EFHW,Walrus
Faust(5): Voltaire, Robz, Yuma, Chairs, Mail-mi

Aaaaaaaaaand...maybe Walrus is my top choice? I dunno, I want to hear from others.

[Voltaire]

do you see what I am saying? Make assumptions. But don't make so many that what you are left with is a bunch of nothing.

Yes. But I also also have a scum read on you, Walrus, and Eevee, so it's not like this is leaving me going WOAH I GUESS LET'S QUICKLYNCH EFHW THEN GUYS.

[Voltaire]

Actually, regardless of mail-mi's alignment Voltaire's unexplainable town read on him is very scummy.

Except like yuma says, what does scum hate to do? Give out free town reads.

Look, the few times I've seen scum mail-mi were HP where he was obvscum because he was hyper-eager to claim the least plausible thing, and then the lipoil tables 11-player Dominion one...he was mcmc's partner...actually how did we catch him there?

[WalrusMcFishSr]

Yep I still believe Volt to be the more promising lynch.

vote: Voltaire

That's L-1 right?

[yuma]

So the one thing I still want to do is analyze Walrus more fully. I do have a townread on him that has existed since mid-day1. I need to question that and see if should be a townread. Because it is kinda a carryover from my views back then. That should get done after I get back from the store.

PPE: unvote now that walrus has voted...

[Voltaire]

Oh wait woah I got at least two votes while I was re-reading the thread!

Well, maybe I'm being discredited. I'll be hyper-paranoid that's what's going on until I have a game where I'm hilariously wrong about everything.

In what universe does

PPE WTF

[Voltaire]

Let me freakin' reply people!

[Voltaire]

In what universe does it make sense for me to hand out crazy mad cred to mail-mi? If I'm scum, only two: the one where he's my partner, and the one where I'm shooting for town cred. In the second one, that's crazy obvious terrible play. In the first, sure, I guess, why not. Except the problem is there are also universes where I am town, like this one, and the reason he still gets a pass, yuma, is because it is not yet POE mail-mi time and so he hasn't had to start playing yet.

Also I made a post calling out three players and then all three voted for me. I win the OMGUS Olympics!

[WalrusMcFishSr]

I hardly think my vote counts for Olympic-level OMGUS. Minor league tops. I've had my vote on you all day and you're still my preferred lynch.

[Voltaire]

The case against yuma (who is no longer my top scum read but still a scum read):

Subtly pushed bad claiming. Drove mislynches on faust and EFHW. POE. Aggressively counters cases against him in a way which implies his attacker is scum (EFHW pointed this out on D1, go find the post it's quite good).

The case against Eevee:

POE, lurking

The case against Walrus:

Wagon-happy, faust on/off when called out, lots of stuff actually.

vote: Walrus is where I want to be actually.

vote count please

[Voltaire]

I hardly think my vote counts for Olympic-level OMGUS. Minor league tops. I've had my vote on you all day and you're still my preferred lynch.

No, it's all three of you collectively. 

[Voltaire]

At this point, I most want to hear from EFHW, Teproc, and mail-mi. My three voters are also my three suspects, so they're not making it any easier for me to figure out which of them is town.

[Voltgloss]

TA doesn't have forum access at the moment - he expects to have it tonight - and so asked in the speccy for one of us to post a votecount.  So:

Vote Count 2.8:

Eevee (1): EFHW
Walrus (2): Mail-mi, Voltaire
Voltaire (2): Eevee, Walrus

Not voting (2): Teproc, yuma

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

Day 2 ends November 13 at 8:00 p.m.

[Teproc]

Well, things are happening. Catching up right now.

[Teproc]

To be honest I still like the Voltaire lynch best. I feel like his praise of Teproc is laying it on a bit thick (trying to butter up the new guy?), and he continues to not hit it home with the level of analysis I would expect from town!Volt. Teproc is behaving more like Voltaire than Voltaire is, as I see it, and I think Volt is almost sheeping that.

I don't like it either, FWIW. I don't know what to make of the fact that he's still doing it even though he got called out on it though. Seems too obvious to be scum to me.

POE post

I'm not a huge fan of trying to go for scum teams before we lynch scum, if only because it makes the scum team aware that they're being suspected together, and also because that kind of reasoning is dangerous. If your first scum read is wrong, your whole reasoning falls apart. For example, I was seeing EFHW/mail-mi scum team earlier which... yeah.

[Eevee]

Voltaire, you are dodging my question.

The case on me, as you put it, is PoE and lurking. Why doesn't that apply to mail-mi?

[Teproc]

Ok, so the case against Voltaire is :

1. Tunneling on Robz and flip-flopping on yuma day 1
2. Weird town-read on mail-mi
3. Faulty reasoning with the POE post
4. Not changing his reads at all during day 2 (except for EFHW)
5. Sheeping yuma on EFHW

1. Voltaire's day 1 behavior is somewhat scummy, I agree with that.

2. His town read on mail-mi I have a hard time evaluating, because it's based on meta, and I'm not familiar with the relevant games here. However, didn't you have a similar reaction to my case on mail-mi, yuma ? Also, I thought the idea was that mafia didn't want strong town reads, but Voltaire has two of them. Have you changed your mind entirely because EFHW turned out to be JK ?

3. I don't findhis POE post scummy. I think it's flawed, but still reads townie to me. I'm coming at it from a town-read on Voltaire though.

4 and 5 I don't get, but they were only mentioned by yuma so that's ok. If we're lynching people for sheeping yuma on EFHW... let's just say I don't look too good either.

All in all, I see why Voltaire is a viable lynch candidate, but I just don't buy it myself.

[Teproc]

I like the Walrus wagon though. I liked Eevee's case against him day 1 and I think his pretty radical change day 2 is an indicator of him going out of his way to avoid what Eevee called him out on day 1. I'm interested in what EFHW has to say, but I defeinitely intend to vote Walrus at this point.

[EFHW]

Just popping in to say I'm keeping up but haven't had time for serious thinking.  I started a reread of Voltaire, I don't know how yuma does those so fast!  I was willing to vote Voltaire Day 1 and I am leaning that way again now.  But people keep mentioning Walrus, so need to look there too. 

[yuma]

Ok, so the case against Voltaire is :

Keep in mind that my big posts were kinda a comprehensive analysis of voltaire. Not everything htere I would include in the case, and some points are certainly stronger than others. So it doesn't really work to say Points X,Y I agree with but points A, B, C I don't so that is only 2/5 points so I think the case is weak. (which isn't exactly what you are doing, but in a way are.)

But I'll respond to some of your comments. Not quoting to prevent a giant quote tree...

Point 2. I do agree with voltaire about mail-mi, but not nearly as strongly as voltaire seems to be doing. I am saying "mail-mi probably shouldn't be lynched today". Voltaire is saying that "mail-mi shouldn't be lynched today and because of that the two scum must not include him." Do you see the difference? As for the point about EFHW.... Again, my point was never really about what I thought mafia would do. It was much more about what I thought town would never do. I just couldn't believe that town would go into a game and not have townreads. It still blows my mind. So as a result I felt that since I couldn't believe EFHW was town, she must be scum and I could see EFHW or anyone else really doing that as scum as a result. We have established that everyone else in this game has had town reads on someone. There are two scum in this game, so obviously scum is going to have town reads at this point.

3. Yeah, if you start with a town read on voltaire you are going to think what he does is town. It is hard to get passed that bias. In the same way if I start with a scum read on him, I am going to think what he is doing is scummy.

4. I just found it strange that his reads wouldn't change at all. That they have stayed the same. Maybe that is more a product of today, as frankly my reads have stayed very much the same as well. So it isn't really a scum point, but like I said, something I mentioned in my comperhensive analysis of him.

5. had more to do with voltaire creating a bad case on EFHW--and voting for her--but when the case was dissolved because it was bad, but when I created a case he had very little hesitation to join it again. So it isn't just that he sheeped, it was that he sheeped onto a person he suspected before for bad reasons. It looked like a convenient reason to go back to voting someone he had suspicion of before.

[yuma]

I started a reread of Voltaire, I don't know how yuma does those so fast!

When you have a baby you have to type and read fast cause you never know when your window to be online is going to disappear!

[WalrusMcFishSr]

I like the Walrus wagon though. I liked Eevee's case against him day 1 and I think his pretty radical change day 2 is an indicator of him going out of his way to avoid what Eevee called him out on day 1. I'm interested in what EFHW has to say, but I defeinitely intend to vote Walrus at this point.

OK, more adherents to Eevee's case! Can SOMEBODY tell me why this damn case is so appealing? People keep referencing it and saying it's "very clear" and such. But then when I ask for clarification everybody goes silent. Eventually I just gave up; it wouldn't do to harp on that forever.

So let me try this again. Eevee's case is, so far as I can tell, related to my probing the town's interest about a mail-mi lynch. (I know there has been some other stuff brought against me too, like the faust on-off-on vote, but this was the crux of Eevee's argument.)

And then you say that my behavior has changed "radically" Day 2. Well if I had to say something it's that I've been less present D2 than D1, especially over the weekends. My real life schedule has a lot to do with that. But you suppose that I have changed my behavior intentionally to respond to Eevee's criticism.

This seems ridiculous to me. It suggests that either you have more examples of what Eevee was talking about, and then counterexamples from D2, in which case go ahead and post them. OR it's just that I did that one thing, one time, and then stopped? Not much to draw a conclusion from there.

If you've got your own reasons for finding me scummy, fine. But I'm tired of people referencing Eevee's case off-hand without bringing anything else to the table.

[yuma]

Alright time to look at walrus and as he said, specifically the points brought up against him.

My vote on him was the first one for his unvoting faust. I didn't find him scummy for revoting though. I felt that scum wouldn't do that. Why? Because scum doesn't want to look like they are trying to be townie. Yes, there is an argument that scum would want to try and appeal to town, but that seems like a horrible way to do it. This is where my town read started.

chairs then had a vote for this reason although it took him forever and a half to spit it out. He basically says that walrus called out his own vote on robz as a wagon building attempt.

faust then votes him for a handful of things such as snarky comments, buddying me, and not understanding walrus's read on voltaire. This vote put him to L-1.

Mail-mi votes for walrus for being less jokey?

eevee votes for him pleasing the crowd

I was then asked where I stood on Walrus and said this which basically said that the three votes on him weren't very good, concluding with this:

So I think I actually just talked myself into having walrus as my biggest town read (finally a strong read). And I think my lynch pool is everyone currently voting for Walrus+EFHW (who was strongly considering it). I think it is very likely that there is at least one scum here looking for the "easier mislynch"

For clarity that is mail-mi, chairs, EFHW, eevee, faust (so yeah, my lynch pool is five people) I won't be lynching voltaire, Robz, Walrus or yuma today barring something crazy happening.

And not much has changed with me in regard to walrus, but now I want to go back, because where this stands right now. I dont' like the case. It doesn't have anything that I think is compelling. So now I need to go back and look for myself and see if there is anything compelling worth being suspicious about. I am really going to try and have an open mind...

And I'll do another post as this is already getting big.

[Voltaire]

Voltaire, you are dodging my question.

The case on me, as you put it, is PoE and lurking. Why doesn't that apply to mail-mi?

It does! But you and mail-mi do not have the same metas. Surely you can see this.

[Voltaire]

Yuma, your most recent post in reply to Teproc basically says you started with a scum read on me, so you find me scummy. Is there actually anything I can reply to there, or is your case just confirmation bias?