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[Teproc]

By the way, since it seems relevant, here's a votecount :

Voltaire (2) : yuma, Walrus
mail-mi (1) : Teproc
EFHW (1) : Voltaire

Not voting (3) : EFHW, mail-mi, Eevee

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

Day 2 ends November 13 at 8:00 p.m.
Soft deadline: November 11 at 8:00 p.m.

[EFHW]

Ok, so there are two possible scenarios with a BPT in play :
VT x3, BPT, Tracker, Goon x2
VT x3, BPT, JK, Goon, Roleblocker.

So if BPT claims, Mafia gets perfect information.

If there's a Tracker, I'd rather have him claiming, because
- Mafia still doesn't have perfect information
- Tracker can have semi-useful information this day, and another shot at info the next day.
- This puts mafia in an awkward situation. They want to get rid of the tracker, but there's a 50% chance of him being protected by a doctor. I think they will probably try to get the Doctor. In this process, they migt hit the BPT, giving us a no-kill night
- If the BPT claims, they just shoot the Tracker

The JK scenario is different but the BPT does not know which one we are in, and should therefore not claim.

PPE : 9 replies

You are taking the tracker claiming as assumed when you say the BPT should not claim.  I agree if the tracker claims, the BPT should not. 

[Teproc]

If they know there is a tracker they still have to try to shoot someone, risking detection.  Knowing who the BPT is also reduces the people the tracker/jk might target, increasing their chances of a successful night action.

This makes some sense in the JK scenario (though I still disagree with it), but not in the Tracker scenario, because we want the Tracker to claim. If the BPT claims in a Tracker scenario, the Tracker gets NKed and we get not good info from him (assuming he didn't catch scum N1).

[Teproc]

Ok, so you get what I'm saying. Good.

[Twistedarcher]

Vote Count 2.2:

Voltaire (2): Yuma, Walrus
Mail-mi (1): Teproc
EFHW (1): Voltaire
Not Voting (3): Eevee, mail-mi, EFHW

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

Day 2 ends November 13 at 8:00 p.m.

[Voltaire]

ok, I'm seeing what you mean about the perfect information.  I'm not sure how much of a problem that is, though.  If they know there is a jk, they still don't know who that is.  If they know there is a tracker they still have to try to shoot someone, risking detection.  Knowing who the BPT is also reduces the people the tracker/jk might target, increasing their chances of a successful night action.

Not if the BPT has claimed - they'll just shoot the tracker! The tracker can't speak from beyond the grave.

[Voltaire]

You are taking the tracker claiming as assumed when you say the BPT should not claim.  I agree if the tracker claims, the BPT should not.

Missed this. OK then.

[Teproc]

So I guess our disagreement is that you don't think Tracker should claim, EFHW. That doesn't make much sense considering you seem to really want an IC ? Tracker claiming is basically the same as BPT claiming (an IC that can't get killed because there might be a doctor - you might think Mafia will target him still, I don't), with the upside of less info for Mafia, and still chances of no kill.

[Voltaire]

So I guess our disagreement is that you don't think Tracker should claim, EFHW. That doesn't make much sense considering you seem to really want an IC ? Tracker claiming is basically the same as BPT claiming (an IC that can't get killed because there might be a doctor - you might think Mafia will target him still, I don't), with the upside of less info for Mafia, and still chances of no kill.

Yep, this again. Teproc makes all the sense.

[yuma]

catching up. I'll post as I see stuff to comment on

[yuma]

The purpose of claiming is not so much their results/power, it's to make them Named Townies and POE scum. That's the spirit behind it. And like yuma points out, we could end up in lylo tomorrow where scum could highly consider fakeclaiming or counterclaiming a PR because it could win them the game, so the time to claim is likely now.*

*again, I want to think through all the versions of this setup and check yuma's suggest claiming order. I have no reason to think he's trying to mislead us, I just want to make sure we're not missing anything

Yes like I said the main reason I like the BP townie claiming now is that it eliminates that potential lylo counterclaim issue...

Here is how I see it, I am approaching this from a point of view that we have a mislynch and a NK tonight (worst case scenario). If the BP claims he/she won't be killed, regardless of whether or not the other PR claims if there is one...

This leaves: 2 Mafia Goons, 1 VT 1 VT/PR (depending on who mafia kills), 1 BPTownie. The BP townie won't be killed this means from a neutral point of view we have a 50% chance of getting the correct lynch: 2 goons vs 1 VT, 1 VT/PR.

Contast this to what teproc says later on (I have received e-mails throughout the day, so I know he says this at some point) that if the BP townie stays hidden they have a chance of absorbing a night kill.... if we mislynch that puts us tonight at 2 Mafia goons, 1 BPT, 2 VT, 1VT/PR. so 1/4 chance.

So I think the 1/4 chance of the BP absorbing the kill is less than the 1/2 chance of us getting a correct lynch tomorrow....


....


Although i just realized I am dumb. News flash! This whole issue is based off me not wanting to have to worry about figuring out between counterclaims tomorrow and having to decide between two players... which is essentially a 50% chance... so the same as if the BP claimed today. Duh...

So yeah, the BP should stay hidden and try to make the best use of that 1/4 chance.

sorry for the long post explaining what everyone probably already knew but that I needed to work out for myself.

[yuma]

I don't think Voltaire's reaction to Robz's (is that correct ?) flip is particularly scummy... partly because I had a similar one.

My vote at least isn't based off Voltaire's reactions to Robz's flip. It is much more fully based on my observations of him from yesterday which I still believe to be valid and scummy. I'll repost it and reclarify some points when I get some time, but (I am not sure if you know this, but this is my busy on week at work and I've got a newborn at home, so time isn't at its highest atm.)

[yuma]

I find it hard to care about soft deadlines, because in my limited experience I've never seen them work. From what I've seen, people like to grandstand about it because it looks pro-town, but then it never actually accomplishes anything. Sure that sounds fine though, I'll believe it when I see it.

Likewise.

[yuma]

vote: Voltaire

This is L-1, right ? Someone unvote, please, at least until we get the claim situation right. I'm not sure Voltaire is town at all (had a null read on him going into day 2, his points about the claim question improved that to a slight town read), but

More town points to Teproc for catching this.

This is a very silly reason to give town points for... We should all be aware of where we are voting... being aware of something and stating the obvious isn't townie...

[yuma]

OK, so yeah that's the case. And then I've asked numerous times what specifically he means by "asking permission" or "validation". It was about that one mail-mi thing? Really, is that all? Do you have any other examples, since he hasn't provided any? I don't call this case "very clear" at all. Less so that it's so stale by now.

^In reference to eevee's case on walrus. I competely agree. It is stale now, it was crappy then. I find it bizarre that voltaire would call this case "strong."

[Teproc]

I've been doing a reread on EFHW, to see what a case against her would look like, and I don't see much here, honestly. She mostly seems towny to me, sometimes misguided, sometimes not. I remember having a slight scum read on her but I'm leaning slight town now.

There's one thing that stood out to me though, and that's the fact that she entirely flipped her position on BPT claiming. When faust brought it up at he very beginning of the game, she was anti-claiming, now she's pro. That's the only really scummy thing I've seen, and even then it's not necessarily that scummy.

So yuma, since you're here, what's your take on claims now (aside from the BPT thing, about which we apparently agree) ?

[yuma]

So yuma, since you're here, what's your take on claims now (aside from the BPT thing, about which we apparently agree) ?

I think, (this is kinda tentative) that the Cop should claim with any type of result as long as it isn't on Robz.

I know the doc and jk should stay silent

I think the BPT should stay silent.

I am not sure about the tracker. Obviously if they have a good result otherwise probably not. I guess having them as an IC is nice, especially as mafia wouldn't know if there is a doc or not... so they might not want to shoot that player (meaning that if the tracker claims the BPTownie should not claim as that gives away that there isn't a doctor).

So yeah, I think a cop should claim and the tracker should claim. Everyone else shouldn't is where I am at right now. I think this is where you are at as well?

[yuma]

There's one thing that stood out to me though, and that's the fact that she entirely flipped her position on BPT claiming. When faust brought it up at he very beginning of the game, she was anti-claiming, now she's pro. That's the only really scummy thing I've seen, and even then it's not necessarily that scummy.

I can't put much stock in that as day1 claiming I think was bad and unnecessary and today is a completely new situation in day2... It probably is still bad, but I understand her desire to figure it out and see if it is worth doing today or not.

PS: I think we need to resolve the claiming in the next ~12 hours and either do it or not do it and then bunker down and focus completely on scum hunting. Talking about claiming is necessary and I am glad we are doing it, but it can get out of hand and distract from everything else that will actually win us the game.

[Teproc]

So yeah, I think a cop should claim and the tracker should claim. Everyone else shouldn't is where I am at right now. I think this is where you are at as well?

Pretty much, yeah. And I think if the tracker claims, he should say who he tracked (implying they're town, otherwise he'd be calling them out on targeting Robz), but not say the exact result, to avoid outing the doctor or making it easy for the mafia to NK him.

[EFHW]

There's one thing that stood out to me though, and that's the fact that she entirely flipped her position on BPT claiming. When faust brought it up at he very beginning of the game, she was anti-claiming, now she's pro. That's the only really scummy thing I've seen, and even then it's not necessarily that scummy.

I can't put much stock in that as day1 claiming I think was bad and unnecessary and today is a completely new situation in day2... It probably is still bad, but I understand her desire to figure it out and see if it is worth doing today or not.

PS: I think we need to resolve the claiming in the next ~12 hours and either do it or not do it and then bunker down and focus completely on scum hunting. Talking about claiming is necessary and I am glad we are doing it, but it can get out of hand and distract from everything else that will actually win us the game.

There is also post in there somewhere where I say a Day 2 IC is preferable to Day 1 IC.

Since everyone wants to start with tracker, I don't think the difference is all that great and I'll go along with that.

If there is no tracker and no cop, and there is a BPT, I will still prefer that the BPT claim today.

[EFHW]

I've been doing a reread on EFHW, to see what a case against her would look like, and I don't see much here, honestly. She mostly seems towny to me, sometimes misguided, sometimes not. I remember having a slight scum read on her but I'm leaning slight town now.

Thank you for your open mind!

[EFHW]

I find it hard to care about soft deadlines, because in my limited experience I've never seen them work. From what I've seen, people like to grandstand about it because it looks pro-town, but then it never actually accomplishes anything. Sure that sounds fine though, I'll believe it when I see it.

Likewise.

We have made them work when there were bankable deadlines.  Another reason for getting this claiming over with early is there is less need for a soft deadline.

[yuma]

If there is no tracker and no cop, and there is a BPT, I will still prefer that the BPT claim today.

I am thinking outside the box here....

It might be bad, but let me work through it...

If there is no tracker claim and no cop claim and there is a BPTownie out there then there is certainly a JK.

So maybe what we should do is if no cop claims and no tracker claims we should have one--or maybe both of the other PRs--claim "Power Role" but not specify which one. I say maybe one because...

Ugh... I am confusing myself... let's try again.

If not cop or tracker claims:

6 Vanilla Townies, 1 Town Jailkeeper, 2 Mafia Goons
5 Vanilla Townies, 1 Town Cop, 1 Town Doctor, 1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Roleblocker
5 Vanilla Townies, 1 1-Shot Bulletproof Townie, 1 Town Tracker, 2 Mafia Goons
5 Vanilla Townies, 1 1-Shot Bulletproof Townie, 1 Town Jailkeeper, 1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Roleblocker
6 Vanilla Townies, 1 Town Cop, 2 Mafia Goons
5 Vanilla Townies, 1 Town Doctor, 1 Town Tracker, 2 Mafia Goons

That means we have one of two setups: Ok... this won't work. Mafia will know the setup if there isn't a cop or tracker claim and if only the JK claims then that would be bad... if there is a JK and a BPT then both could claim, but the JK wouldn't know that so wouldn't claim first so the BPT would have to claim "PR" first so mafia would know that player was the BPT.

[yuma]

I posted the above to see if anyone else can figure out a way to make having them claim "Power Role" but not getting into specifics works based off anything I just wrote. I don't think it will, but I just kinda confused myself in the process.

[EFHW]

nvm, BPT should NOT claim if we have no cop or tracker.  Unless yuma or someone else figures out an out of the box plan.