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Author Topic: Topdecking Scheme  (Read 1840 times)

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BadAssMutha

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Topdecking Scheme
« on: October 25, 2013, 12:36:55 pm »
+15

I'd imagine that most of us play Scheme pretty similarly - use it to topdeck good actions when possible, putting Scheme itself on top only if you can't topdeck anything else worthwhile. This can actually be less effective than topdecking a Scheme instead of your good action - namely, this occurs when you are close to the reshuffle.

Suppose a case where I have 16 cards in my deck - all treasure, plus a Scheme and a Militia. It's the end of a turn where I just played both the Scheme and the Militia, and I'm at the very bottom of the shuffle, with no cards left in my draw pile. I imagine most people here would just automatically topdeck the Militia. You'll actually play it more if you topdeck the Scheme. Putting the Militia on top, you have a 4/15 chance of drawing your Scheme with it, and getting to play the Militia twice during this shuffle. If you miss, you only play Militia once this time around. Putting the Scheme on top, you have a 5/15 chance of drawing the Militia with it and getting to play it twice. Even if you don't, you can just topdeck the Scheme again and have a 5/10 chance of getting the Militia and still playing it twice this shuffle. Worst case, the Militia is in the last 5 cards and you only play it once this shuffle. Overall, you have a 66% chance of playing your attack twice during this shuffle if you topdeck the Scheme, compared to 27% by topdecking the Militia.

This happens because topdecking at the bottom of a shuffle might not have any effect - you might have gotten lucky and drawn that card anyway. You're better off topdecking your topdecker, so that you can play it early in the shuffle when it will certainly have an effect. This seems counterintuitive; I usually play my Schemes on autopilot, only Scheming Schemes as a last resort (or to enable Conspirator or KC shenanigans). This gets a little more complicated in reality because by not topdecking your attack, it might miss the reshuffle (playing it 0 times this shuffle), but this gets less likely as your deck gets bigger. Plus, timing of attacks can be important - sometimes it may be better to play an attack earlier rather than an extra time. Overall, though, I think the right play might be to topdeck the Scheme if you're about to shuffle, and hope your attacks get drawn at the top of the deck.
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Schneau

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Re: Topdecking Scheme
« Reply #1 on: October 25, 2013, 02:34:36 pm »
+3

This is really interesting. But, I don't know if Militia is the best example, since having weak cantrips like Scheme in your hand is usually considered not a good idea with discarding attacks like Militia around. This is because if you get Militia'd, if you hold onto Scheme it will end up of average quality of the cards in your deck, instead of knowing what the next card is and deciding whether or not to discard it.

In fact, one point you did not mention is that even though you might get to play Militia twice during your next reshuffle, those plays might not be as early as if you topdeck Militia. This can be important if your opponent is about to reshuffle, since you can make them not able to improve their deck as much. Since there is a snowball effect in Dominion, this could be better than playing Militia twice during your opponent's next reshuffle. This can be seen even stronger if you consider Cursing attacks -- playing a Witch next turn might be better than playing it twice during your next reshuffle if you can get the Curse into their deck sooner.

In fact, I think that a better example for your point would be a strong non-Attack card rather than an Attack card, since most of those are better the earlier you play them. Something like Wharf or Vault.
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BadAssMutha

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Re: Topdecking Scheme
« Reply #2 on: October 25, 2013, 03:02:29 pm »
+1

I agree, once we're talking about attacks, the timing becomes more important. One Militia or Witch now might be better than two a little later, if you can affect your opponent before HIS next reshuffle. I actually did briefly mention that at the very end of the post. The point with Scheme is probably better illustrated with a non-attack card that doesn't draw other cards and isn't a duration - let's say Monument. If you can consistently play that twice a shuffle while your opponent only does it once, you'll be in good shape.
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soulnet

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Re: Topdecking Scheme
« Reply #3 on: October 25, 2013, 04:10:03 pm »
0

I agree, once we're talking about attacks, the timing becomes more important. One Militia or Witch now might be better than two a little later, if you can affect your opponent before HIS next reshuffle. I actually did briefly mention that at the very end of the post. The point with Scheme is probably better illustrated with a non-attack card that doesn't draw other cards and isn't a duration - let's say Monument. If you can consistently play that twice a shuffle while your opponent only does it once, you'll be in good shape.

With monument you are still forgoing +2$ next turn, which is probably above-average for your deck, and thus are improving less (say, buying Silver instead of Gold) which, because of the snowball thing, can still be suboptimal even if you play Monument more. But anyway, I think usually you use Schemes by massing them, and if you have several Schemes, it is better to topdeck the terminal because it is not too unlikely that you will have a new scheme to re-topdeck it in the next hand.
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sudgy

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Re: Topdecking Scheme
« Reply #4 on: October 25, 2013, 04:14:59 pm »
+2

I agree, once we're talking about attacks, the timing becomes more important. One Militia or Witch now might be better than two a little later, if you can affect your opponent before HIS next reshuffle. I actually did briefly mention that at the very end of the post. The point with Scheme is probably better illustrated with a non-attack card that doesn't draw other cards and isn't a duration - let's say Monument. If you can consistently play that twice a shuffle while your opponent only does it once, you'll be in good shape.

With monument you are still forgoing +2$ next turn, which is probably above-average for your deck, and thus are improving less (say, buying Silver instead of Gold) which, because of the snowball thing, can still be suboptimal even if you play Monument more. But anyway, I think usually you use Schemes by massing them, and if you have several Schemes, it is better to topdeck the terminal because it is not too unlikely that you will have a new scheme to re-topdeck it in the next hand.

Even if you forgo +$2 next turn, you're still getting it sometime within the next reshuffle, before that bonus hits.
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   Quote from: sudgy on June 31, 2011, 11:47:46 pm

BadAssMutha

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Re: Topdecking Scheme
« Reply #5 on: October 25, 2013, 04:16:12 pm »
0

Quote
With monument you are still forgoing +2$ next turn, which is probably above-average for your deck, and thus are improving less (say, buying Silver instead of Gold) which, because of the snowball thing, can still be suboptimal even if you play Monument more. But anyway, I think usually you use Schemes by massing them, and if you have several Schemes, it is better to topdeck the terminal because it is not too unlikely that you will have a new scheme to re-topdeck it in the next hand.

$2 now is generally better than $2 next turn, but it doesn't matter as much so long as it comes before the reshuffle. I don't care if I get a small hand now and a big hand next turn or a big hand now and a small hand next turn, so long as I get them both before I shuffle again. Either way, the deck will be the same at the shuffle. The problem is when I get a small hand now, shuffle, and then get a big hand. This is where the snowball effect starts, because I could have had big hand, shuffle, small hand, which would give me an extra "good" card in the deck. So long as the Monument doesn't miss the reshuffle, it shouldn't matter too much.
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