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Author Topic: Familiar vs. Sea Hag  (Read 2776 times)

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GeoLib

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Familiar vs. Sea Hag
« on: September 11, 2013, 04:40:36 pm »
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I played a game the other day with this kingdom:




My opponent opened potion, and after a little thought I decided to go for sea hag instead because I saw little potential for an engine and decided to set up for a sloggy game with beggar reacting to his frequent familiar for bonus silvers and not being too bad as a terminal gold in a sloggy deck. I lost the curse split 7-3 and he was able to trash all of his curses with salvager, but I ultimately won, I think largely due to poor endgame play on his part (those last several Harems should have been duchies in my mind). What do you guys think? Is Sea Hag the way to go on this board? And how could I have played it better?


Edit: forgot to post the log. Oops. http://dom.retrobox.eu/?/20130910/log.50ca9bbae4b0c3bfb6b97227.1378849840361.txt
« Last Edit: September 11, 2013, 05:11:27 pm by GeoLib »
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Warfreak2

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Re: Familiar vs. Sea Hag
« Reply #1 on: September 11, 2013, 04:56:59 pm »
+1

I would go for Familiar, then clean up with Trading Post. Copper is your friend in Gardens/Silk Road slogs, but Provinces are the target here. If you have a lucky 5-Copper hand after getting a few Silvers, you can do Mint/Harem.
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Jorbles

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Re: Familiar vs. Sea Hag
« Reply #2 on: September 11, 2013, 05:05:12 pm »
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How did you lose the Curse split? Bad Sea Hag draws? Also did you go 1 or 2 hags? I have a hard time seeing how Familiar could regularly beat Sea Hag on this board which has 0 engine potential.

I'd probably go Sea Hag with the plan to clean up with Trading Post. Beggar is a good counter to Familiar on a big money board. Opening Sea Hag means there a much better chance than usual that a Potion buyer won't hit his $3P.

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Jorbles

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Re: Familiar vs. Sea Hag
« Reply #3 on: September 11, 2013, 05:08:53 pm »
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How often were you picking up 3 Coppers with the Beggar? If you did it a lot in the early game that could be how you lost the Curse split because that's 3 extra cards you have to draw through before you see a Sea Hag again. Not something you should consider doing until later in the game (I probably wouldn't even buy a Beggar until my opponent had 2 Familiars).
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GeoLib

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Re: Familiar vs. Sea Hag
« Reply #4 on: September 11, 2013, 05:15:46 pm »
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Sorry. Forgot to post the log. I edited into the first post.

I got 1 Sea Hag and then a beggar on T3 after he picked up a familiar. I only played Beggar once (T7) to go from a silver to gold buy. All the other times I used it as a reaction.
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Jorbles

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Re: Familiar vs. Sea Hag
« Reply #5 on: September 11, 2013, 05:23:09 pm »
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That first Beggar could have been a second Sea Hag, that would have helped you dish out curses a lot, and you still would have been able to get a Trading Post* on your next turn. Basically I'd say you lost the split because you got 1 Sea Hag and he got 3 Familiars. Sea Hag is faster than Familiar usually, but it's not faster than 3 Familiars.

Edit: *A Mystic might actually be better at this point in the game as you'd already have 2 terminals, but the earlier you get a Trading Post the better. Not sure which is actually better here.
« Last Edit: September 11, 2013, 05:26:45 pm by Jorbles »
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Warfreak2

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Re: Familiar vs. Sea Hag
« Reply #6 on: September 11, 2013, 05:38:20 pm »
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T6: I prefer another Trading Post to Mystic. (again at T14)
T7: Getting three Coppers along with your Gold is just worse than buying Silver.
T24: Why Duchy instead of Province? There are three Provinces left, no?

Mainly that Cache-tastic T7, without that maybe you'd have only lost the Curse war 6-4. One Sea Hag to three Familiars, though, that's what's going to happen. By the end of the game you still have all 7 Curses left, so really Trading Posts would have been doing more for you than Mystics.
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DG

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Re: Familiar vs. Sea Hag
« Reply #7 on: September 11, 2013, 06:09:46 pm »
+1

One problem here is related to beggars and trading posts. They push your deck in different directions. The beggar wants to work in a messy expanding deck that can shrug off the familiars with the pure bulk of gained treasure. The trading post offers a contracting deck that will clean up to moderate quality. This becomes more apparent when you compare adding a salvager to a beggar based deck or a trading post deck.

Your opponent won however since he was able to give you far more curses. This was due to better draws, specifically his salvager coming into play at the same time as your sea hag, meaning that his deck hardly deteriorated and was able to cycle the familiars quickly.
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GeoLib

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Re: Familiar vs. Sea Hag
« Reply #8 on: September 11, 2013, 09:25:08 pm »
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T6: I prefer another Trading Post to Mystic. (again at T14)
T7: Getting three Coppers along with your Gold is just worse than buying Silver.
T24: Why Duchy instead of Province? There are three Provinces left, no?

Mainly that Cache-tastic T7, without that maybe you'd have only lost the Curse war 6-4. One Sea Hag to three Familiars, though, that's what's going to happen. By the end of the game you still have all 7 Curses left, so really Trading Posts would have been doing more for you than Mystics.

T6: That's fair
T7: also fair
T24: He trashed a province earlier on with salvager, so no, there were only two.

Your opponent won however since he was able to give you far more curses. This was due to better draws, specifically his salvager coming into play at the same time as your sea hag, meaning that his deck hardly deteriorated and was able to cycle the familiars quickly.

I actually won... Though I think he would have if he'd played the end game right
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Warfreak2

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Re: Familiar vs. Sea Hag
« Reply #9 on: September 12, 2013, 05:12:20 am »
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Oh, I didn't notice the Province trash. (It would be nice if the log viewer gave some more information, like contents of the trash, or piles nearly empty)
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soulnet

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Re: Familiar vs. Sea Hag
« Reply #10 on: September 12, 2013, 09:23:20 am »
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Opening Sea Hag means there a much better chance than usual that a Potion buyer won't hit his $3P.

This is absolutely wrong. Everything in T3/T4 is the same if the card you skipped would have been in the bottom of the deck and no skipping occurs. T5/T6 are a little different, but unless you skip the Potion, no big difference. And if you are buying silvers or drawers or something with purchase power in T3/T4 (assuming no Familiar), its extremely bad luck to get no $3P in T5/T6, both in the no opponent sea hag and in the opponent's sea hag skipping the Potion. The minor differences in favor of Sea Hag skipping Potion are probably more than offset by the likelyhood of skipping an Estate or even a Copper and make it better for the Potion in T5/T6.

About the game, I think Beggar is a mistake and double Sea Hag with a Trading Post or two afterwards should win you the game (Mint only if you get an early lucky $5). I would guess double Sea Hag wins the Curse war here, but even if you tie and end up 1 dead card more, you will have better economy because you started on Silver/Gold earlier.
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Warfreak2

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Re: Familiar vs. Sea Hag
« Reply #11 on: September 12, 2013, 10:02:55 am »
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If Player 1 draws Sea Hag on T3, it could destroy Player 2's T4 hand, possibly missing the Familiar. Player 2 doesn't have such a possibility.
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Jorbles

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Re: Familiar vs. Sea Hag
« Reply #12 on: September 12, 2013, 10:08:01 am »
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Opening Sea Hag means there a much better chance than usual that a Potion buyer won't hit his $3P.

This is absolutely wrong. Everything in T3/T4 is the same if the card you skipped would have been in the bottom of the deck and no skipping occurs. T5/T6 are a little different, but unless you skip the Potion, no big difference. And if you are buying silvers or drawers or something with purchase power in T3/T4 (assuming no Familiar), its extremely bad luck to get no $3P in T5/T6, both in the no opponent sea hag and in the opponent's sea hag skipping the Potion. The minor differences in favor of Sea Hag skipping Potion are probably more than offset by the likelyhood of skipping an Estate or even a Copper and make it better for the Potion in T5/T6.

About the game, I think Beggar is a mistake and double Sea Hag with a Trading Post or two afterwards should win you the game (Mint only if you get an early lucky $5). I would guess double Sea Hag wins the Curse war here, but even if you tie and end up 1 dead card more, you will have better economy because you started on Silver/Gold earlier.

It is not absolutely wrong. If you draw your Sea Hag T3 than you have a chance of hitting a Copper, Potion or Silver of your opponent that could let them get $3P on T4. If you draw it T4 you could hit it if their Potion missed the reshuffle (or affect their next hand if it comes up early in the reshuffle).
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Warfreak2

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Re: Familiar vs. Sea Hag
« Reply #13 on: September 12, 2013, 12:02:36 pm »
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That is assuming you're Player 1. Player 2 can only hit Player 1's T5 hand if he draws Sea Hag on T3. Geolib was Player 2 in this game.
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Jorbles

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Re: Familiar vs. Sea Hag
« Reply #14 on: September 12, 2013, 01:01:31 pm »
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That's a good point. It is pretty miniscule in that situation.
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soulnet

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Re: Familiar vs. Sea Hag
« Reply #15 on: September 12, 2013, 01:26:04 pm »
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It is not absolutely wrong. If you draw your Sea Hag T3 than you have a chance of hitting a Copper, Potion or Silver of your opponent that could let them get $3P on T4. If you draw it T4 you could hit it if their Potion missed the reshuffle (or affect their next hand if it comes up early in the reshuffle).

I understand, but you are not affecting the chance to hit $3P in T3/T4 at all. For that probability, it does not matter if you flip a card or not, you are still are going to see two exclusive sets of 5 out of your 11 or 12 cards in those two turns, and all possibilities have the same probability. Of course, with a fixed shuffle you are changing the outcome by playing Sea Hag, but the probabilities given by the fact you don't know the order of the cards are the same in both cases.

Probabilities of hitting $3P in T5/T6/T7 do change with the Sea Hag play, but I don't think they change enough for it to matter in the analysis.
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sudgy

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Re: Familiar vs. Sea Hag
« Reply #16 on: September 12, 2013, 01:26:56 pm »
+1

It is not absolutely wrong. If you draw your Sea Hag T3 than you have a chance of hitting a Copper, Potion or Silver of your opponent that could let them get $3P on T4. If you draw it T4 you could hit it if their Potion missed the reshuffle (or affect their next hand if it comes up early in the reshuffle).

I understand, but you are not affecting the chance to hit $3P in T3/T4 at all. For that probability, it does not matter if you flip a card or not, you are still are going to see two exclusive sets of 5 out of your 11 or 12 cards in those two turns, and all possibilities have the same probability. Of course, with a fixed shuffle you are changing the outcome by playing Sea Hag, but the probabilities given by the fact you don't know the order of the cards are the same in both cases.

Probabilities of hitting $3P in T5/T6/T7 do change with the Sea Hag play, but I don't think they change enough for it to matter in the analysis.

The main thing is that on T4 they will have a four card hand instead of a five card hand because of the curse.
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soulnet

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Re: Familiar vs. Sea Hag
« Reply #17 on: September 12, 2013, 01:28:57 pm »
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It is not absolutely wrong. If you draw your Sea Hag T3 than you have a chance of hitting a Copper, Potion or Silver of your opponent that could let them get $3P on T4. If you draw it T4 you could hit it if their Potion missed the reshuffle (or affect their next hand if it comes up early in the reshuffle).

I understand, but you are not affecting the chance to hit $3P in T3/T4 at all. For that probability, it does not matter if you flip a card or not, you are still are going to see two exclusive sets of 5 out of your 11 or 12 cards in those two turns, and all possibilities have the same probability. Of course, with a fixed shuffle you are changing the outcome by playing Sea Hag, but the probabilities given by the fact you don't know the order of the cards are the same in both cases.

Probabilities of hitting $3P in T5/T6/T7 do change with the Sea Hag play, but I don't think they change enough for it to matter in the analysis.

The main thing is that on T4 they will have a four card hand instead of a five card hand because of the curse.

Oh, the Curse, right. Flipping a Copper also changes the outcome. Nevermind, not my day, I'll be back after some self analysis.
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GeoLib

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Re: Familiar vs. Sea Hag
« Reply #18 on: September 12, 2013, 02:53:31 pm »
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Oh, I didn't notice the Province trash. (It would be nice if the log viewer gave some more information, like contents of the trash, or piles nearly empty)

Yeah. I made that feature request a while ago. I think it's something nutki wrote though, so it's difficult for michaeljb and ragingduckd to edit it.

Thanks all for your input. I always thought that the second hag wasn't usually worth it, but I see what you guys mean. I think this game is also an important lesson in learning your end game tactics. Based on our strategies I should have lost this.
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Re: Familiar vs. Sea Hag
« Reply #19 on: September 13, 2013, 03:30:44 pm »
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Usually open sea hag, not potion, engine or no. Exceptions: transmute is the only trasher on the board, or theres good trashing and good potiom cards other than familiar.
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