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[mathguy]

I played a game a while ago where scheme showed up as the bane card for Young Witch. Here you get in the situation where you can always just "scheme your scheme" to keep scheme in your hand during your opponent's turn. So now you have a full stop to Young Witch.

1) What messes this up? Minion does for sure.

2) This seems pretty rare that you will get Young Witch with scheme as the bane card. Does one of you calculation beasts know what the probability is of "Given that Young Witch is around, card X will be the bane card?". I've since played 3 games like this in the past week or so.

[AJD]

Well... "mathguy"... isn't the probability of any given Bane card just 1/41 (or 1 in whatever the number of Bane-eligible cards is, which I think is 41)?

[dondon151]

Well, you also have to consider the probability that any number of the eligible Bane cards are already in the kingdom, and can no longer be Bane cards. Of course, whether that still results in a 1/41 probability, I don't know.

[Jack Rudd]

Well, you also have to consider the probability that any number of the eligible Bane cards are already in the kingdom, and can no longer be Bane cards. Of course, whether that still results in a 1/41 probability, I don't know.

Yes, it does - the probability you referred to affects all eligible bane cards equally.

[mith]

Actually, I think the probability is slightly higher than 1/(number of two- or three-cost cards), because of the possibility of the Young Witch showing up in the Black Market deck.

[Jack Rudd]

Actually, I think the probability is slightly higher than 1/(number of two- or three-cost cards), because of the possibility of the Young Witch showing up in the Black Market deck.

Aargh, Black Market. I forgot about its... uh, unusual rules.

(In which case the answer is somewhere between 1/40 and 1/41, and depends on the size of your Black Market deck.)

[mathguy]

Well... "mathguy"... isn't the probability of any given Bane card just 1/41 (or 1 in whatever the number of Bane-eligible cards is, which I think is 41)?

I definitely do math  , but figuring out probabilities is my least favourite kind of math. Also, I didn't know how many eligible 2/3 cost cards there are (and I figured someone out there just knows this number).

[DG]

The bane doesn't need to be scheme itself. Schemes can keep your bane card in your next draw often enough to deter or defeat the young witch. You would however needs to play the bane card, so you'd better hope that it is not embargo.

[Empathy]

The bane doesn't need to be scheme itself. Schemes can keep your bane card in your next draw often enough to deter or defeat the young witch. You would however needs to play the bane card, so you'd better hope that it is not embargo.

Good point. I am not sure how viable it is as a hard counter. It looks like a pretty good soft deterrent.

Buying enough schemes to keep the bane card in hand seems somewhat of a waste of time (unless ironworks, conspirator or peddler is around?). If a single witch buy makes you waste 4-5 scheme buys (and forces you to reserve one card and action slot each turn for the bane), then she probably did her job.

I mean, if the bane card is a terminal, you are not going to be happy anyway (because you prefer playing a powerful terminal each turn) and if it's a cantrip, just hoard those instead of hoarding schemes?