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LastFootnote

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Doctor overpay
« on: August 27, 2013, 07:04:53 pm »
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Now that we have some time with Guilds under our belt, how do we feel about the Doctor overpay? I've still had the best luck when I opportunistically buy a Doctor for $8 or more, but if memory serves, that wasn't the experience of the majority. Everybody seems to have accepted that you should open with Doctor, perhaps overpaying by $1. Have any of the better players tried doing a big Doctor overpay more than once or twice? Can someone explain to me why it's a bad idea?
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Beyond Awesome

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Re: Doctor overpay
« Reply #1 on: August 27, 2013, 07:08:22 pm »
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I find opening Doctor is best. $4 seems okay, but $5 or especially $6 is ideal. If you track your deck well, you can trash most of it very quickly. I did a late Doctor overpay once. I found it worked okay because I had an idea of my deck contents, but I am not sold on Doctor as a late game trasher.
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ragingduckd

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Re: Doctor overpay
« Reply #2 on: August 27, 2013, 07:22:06 pm »
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The problem with a $4 Doctor on T1/T2 is that it triggers a reshuffle.
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Beyond Awesome

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Re: Doctor overpay
« Reply #3 on: August 27, 2013, 07:31:07 pm »
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The problem with a $4 Doctor on T1/T2 is that it triggers a reshuffle.

Sometimes, you want that.
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serakfalcon

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Re: Doctor overpay
« Reply #4 on: August 27, 2013, 07:57:32 pm »
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Quote
The problem with a $4 Doctor on T1/T2 is that it triggers a reshuffle.
T1 Doctor with overpay gives you a 40% chance of trashing an estate from your second hand, and then a further ~17% chance of getting to play the doctor on T2, and a ~67% chance that you'll have a 4/4 start.
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Re: Doctor overpay
« Reply #5 on: August 27, 2013, 08:38:34 pm »
+2

Quote
The problem with a $4 Doctor on T1/T2 is that it triggers a reshuffle.
T1 Doctor with overpay gives you a 40% chance of trashing an estate from your second hand, and then a further ~17% chance of getting to play the doctor on T2, and a ~67% chance that you'll have a 4/4 start.
...with one of those 4s opening with a 3.
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ednever

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Re: Doctor overpay
« Reply #6 on: August 27, 2013, 08:42:19 pm »
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I like opening Dr overpay with 4/3.
I've never done it with 3/4.

I think I've only bought Dr after turn 1 once. I can remember why.

But Dr is only really good if you can use it early to kill Estates and Coppers (or you have excess actions and some way to monitor your deck).

Over-paying for Dr is good I guess, but then it's a trade off for other cards. Most useful if it's a weak kingdom I guess?
It would be good with a slog where you have a bunch of curses to get rid of, but when are you going to draw $8 on a slog like that and want an over-paid Dr over a Province?

There are likely edge cases, but I'll bet in general not a good choice.

Ed
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LastFootnote

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Re: Doctor overpay
« Reply #7 on: August 27, 2013, 10:04:42 pm »
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But Dr is only really good if you can use it early to kill Estates and Coppers (or you have excess actions and some way to monitor your deck).

But why do you say that? Why is killing Estates and Coppers early so much better than killing them on turn 5 to 8? Usually you want the strong trasher early because it's easier to line up your trasher with your junk. You sacrifice early economy for that trashing. But with Doctor you have the opportunity to get the early economy and make up the strong trashing after the fact. It seems to me that could very well be worth $8 or $9.

Over-paying for Dr is good I guess, but then it's a trade off for other cards. Most useful if it's a weak kingdom I guess?
It would be good with a slog where you have a bunch of curses to get rid of, but when are you going to draw $8 on a slog like that and want an over-paid Dr over a Province?

I don't think it's great in a slog. I think it's better when you get an early $8 hand in an engine-ish game. Usually you don't want a turn 5 Province. Would you rather have a Gold or would you rather trash about 4 bad cards? I'm sure the answer is "it depends", but it seems to me you'd take the trashing pretty often.
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scott_pilgrim

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Re: Doctor overpay
« Reply #8 on: August 27, 2013, 11:06:22 pm »
+1

But Dr is only really good if you can use it early to kill Estates and Coppers (or you have excess actions and some way to monitor your deck).

But why do you say that? Why is killing Estates and Coppers early so much better than killing them on turn 5 to 8? Usually you want the strong trasher early because it's easier to line up your trasher with your junk. You sacrifice early economy for that trashing. But with Doctor you have the opportunity to get the early economy and make up the strong trashing after the fact. It seems to me that could very well be worth $8 or $9.

With most other trashers, much of the early game economic sacrifice comes in the fact that you have to give up a buy every time you want to trash.  Since Doctor doesn't trash from hand, you don't get that with Doctor; you can keep buying Silvers or whatever while doing the trashing.  Not sure that that's enough to make it substantially better than trashing via the overpay, but it's certainly a factor to consider.
Over-paying for Dr is good I guess, but then it's a trade off for other cards. Most useful if it's a weak kingdom I guess?
It would be good with a slog where you have a bunch of curses to get rid of, but when are you going to draw $8 on a slog like that and want an over-paid Dr over a Province?

I don't think it's great in a slog. I think it's better when you get an early $8 hand in an engine-ish game. Usually you don't want a turn 5 Province. Would you rather have a Gold or would you rather trash about 4 bad cards? I'm sure the answer is "it depends", but it seems to me you'd take the trashing pretty often.
If you know you're going to hit $8 by turn 5, then by all means, wait until then to trash via the overpay.  I think people prefer to open with Doctor because they have no idea how things are going to turn out that far into the game, and they would rather have the more reliable early trashing than try to get lucky for a good early overpay.  This may not always be the right call, but I think in most cases it's probably safer.  Often times at $6, Gold is better than an overpaid Doctor; at $7, it's probably pretty close; and then maybe at $8 Doctor is better.  But since you don't know whether you'll be hitting $8 any time soon, I would think it is best to play it safe.

Then again, I haven't played much Guilds, so that's mostly speculation rather than experience.

Edit: Actually I'm sure those price points depend too much on the board to say anything useful about when Doctor is preferable to Gold...
« Last Edit: August 27, 2013, 11:08:58 pm by scott_pilgrim »
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AJD

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Re: Doctor overpay
« Reply #9 on: August 28, 2013, 12:14:30 am »
+5

 
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Re: Doctor overpay
« Reply #10 on: August 28, 2013, 12:15:49 am »
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(...and so she's definitely not my employee or anything, I mean, I don't control her paycheck)
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Re: Doctor overpay
« Reply #11 on: August 28, 2013, 02:23:58 am »
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It's great when you have all or most of your good cards in a single hand (typically after playing a +cards card). Other than that, it's mostly just a solid opening trasher.
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SCSN

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Re: Doctor overpay
« Reply #12 on: August 28, 2013, 03:03:47 am »
+4

But Dr is only really good if you can use it early to kill Estates and Coppers (or you have excess actions and some way to monitor your deck).

But why do you say that? Why is killing Estates and Coppers early so much better than killing them on turn 5 to 8? Usually you want the strong trasher early because it's easier to line up your trasher with your junk.

That's not the main reason. You want to trash early because it's the fastest way to get you to a lean deck that allows you to play your key cards every turn. If you get to that point before your opponent does, you usually win the game.
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jaybeez

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Re: Doctor overpay
« Reply #13 on: August 28, 2013, 03:44:07 am »
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Doctor overpay on T1:
$4 = decent
$5 = strong
$6 = DOMINI-OWNED
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Re: Doctor overpay
« Reply #14 on: August 28, 2013, 09:07:20 am »
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Doctor is also really weak against looters. It, Journeyman, Wishing well and Mystic are the anti-cornupica cards.
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LastFootnote

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Re: Doctor overpay
« Reply #15 on: August 28, 2013, 09:25:12 am »
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But Dr is only really good if you can use it early to kill Estates and Coppers (or you have excess actions and some way to monitor your deck).

But why do you say that? Why is killing Estates and Coppers early so much better than killing them on turn 5 to 8? Usually you want the strong trasher early because it's easier to line up your trasher with your junk.

That's not the main reason. You want to trash early because it's the fastest way to get you to a lean deck that allows you to play your key cards every turn. If you get to that point before your opponent does, you usually win the game.

So you claim it's better to trash early, which often delays acquisition of key cards, rather than to do a mega-trash later after you have some of them?
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SCSN

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Re: Doctor overpay
« Reply #16 on: August 28, 2013, 09:55:50 am »
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But Dr is only really good if you can use it early to kill Estates and Coppers (or you have excess actions and some way to monitor your deck).

But why do you say that? Why is killing Estates and Coppers early so much better than killing them on turn 5 to 8? Usually you want the strong trasher early because it's easier to line up your trasher with your junk.

That's not the main reason. You want to trash early because it's the fastest way to get you to a lean deck that allows you to play your key cards every turn. If you get to that point before your opponent does, you usually win the game.

So you claim it's better to trash early, which often delays acquisition of key cards, rather than to do a mega-trash later after you have some of them?

Absolutely.
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LastFootnote

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Re: Doctor overpay
« Reply #17 on: August 28, 2013, 10:13:09 am »
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But Dr is only really good if you can use it early to kill Estates and Coppers (or you have excess actions and some way to monitor your deck).

But why do you say that? Why is killing Estates and Coppers early so much better than killing them on turn 5 to 8? Usually you want the strong trasher early because it's easier to line up your trasher with your junk.

That's not the main reason. You want to trash early because it's the fastest way to get you to a lean deck that allows you to play your key cards every turn. If you get to that point before your opponent does, you usually win the game.

So you claim it's better to trash early, which often delays acquisition of key cards, rather than to do a mega-trash later after you have some of them?

Absolutely.

Why?
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scott_pilgrim

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Re: Doctor overpay
« Reply #18 on: August 28, 2013, 11:03:03 am »
+3

Doctor is also really weak against looters. It, Journeyman, Wishing well and Mystic are the anti-cornupica cards.
Don't forget Hunting Party.
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Mic Qsenoch

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Re: Doctor overpay
« Reply #19 on: August 28, 2013, 11:09:20 am »
+1

But Dr is only really good if you can use it early to kill Estates and Coppers (or you have excess actions and some way to monitor your deck).

But why do you say that? Why is killing Estates and Coppers early so much better than killing them on turn 5 to 8? Usually you want the strong trasher early because it's easier to line up your trasher with your junk.

That's not the main reason. You want to trash early because it's the fastest way to get you to a lean deck that allows you to play your key cards every turn. If you get to that point before your opponent does, you usually win the game.

So you claim it's better to trash early, which often delays acquisition of key cards, rather than to do a mega-trash later after you have some of them?

Absolutely.

Why?

One reason to prefer early trashing is that most of your deck is junk, you are almost guaranteed to have a suitable target for your trasher. There are other reasons as well, but mostly they follow the principle of: "trashing can lead to rapid acceleration of your deck quality and you want that acceleration as soon as possible." I'm sure there are times to opportunistically overpay Doctor for big trashing, but it isn't something I would rely on in general, because 1) you can't be sure you will get a suitably large amount of money in a single turn in a reasonable amount of time, and 2) the longer you delay your trashing the more likely your big overpay just cycles some of your okay/good cards instead of trashing your junk.
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Re: Doctor overpay
« Reply #20 on: August 28, 2013, 01:49:01 pm »
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The exception to waiting for doctor, is, of course, treasure map.  Get a few support cards, get two treasure maps, and when you have four golds in hand most of your deck after that is junk.  Overpay for doctor by at least $9, and you're good to go.
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Re: Doctor overpay
« Reply #21 on: August 29, 2013, 10:08:42 am »
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But Dr is only really good if you can use it early to kill Estates and Coppers (or you have excess actions and some way to monitor your deck).

But why do you say that? Why is killing Estates and Coppers early so much better than killing them on turn 5 to 8? Usually you want the strong trasher early because it's easier to line up your trasher with your junk.

That's not the main reason. You want to trash early because it's the fastest way to get you to a lean deck that allows you to play your key cards every turn. If you get to that point before your opponent does, you usually win the game.

So you claim it's better to trash early, which often delays acquisition of key cards, rather than to do a mega-trash later after you have some of them?

Absolutely.

Why?

Because trashing early is easy. Trashing later is difficult. You need more trashers, and more drawing to draw those trashers with the stuff you want to trash. The economy you saved by delaying your trashing gets used up on enabling trashing, while your opponent builds up the same economy you had but with more consistency because he's not subject to the swinginess your junk causes. Then once you've trashed, the three Rabbles you needed aren't that useful for awhile.
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Re: Doctor overpay
« Reply #22 on: August 29, 2013, 10:45:24 am »
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Once problem with the doctor is that quickly becomes a weak terminal that clogs up your deck. The trashing is haphazard in mid or late game. The sorting is rarely of value. It's easier to draw a bigger hand to keep the utility of a chapel, say, than arrange your draw deck to keep the utility of a doctor. This means that the doctor needs to trash a large number of cards to cover (1) the opportunity cost of buying it and (2) the space it occupies in the deck. Overspending moves the expense of a doctor from (2) to (1) rather than resolving both problems.
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Re: Doctor overpay
« Reply #23 on: August 29, 2013, 02:20:39 pm »
+3

Doctor is also really weak against looters. It, Journeyman, Wishing well and Mystic are the anti-cornupica cards.
Don't forget Hunting Party.

Hunting Party is in the WRONG SET!
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