Thank you for your thoughtful analysis. It's been a while since the contests and I don't have time to look through the posts, but I do remember (and Polk evidently does too) that there was at least one discussion about the fact that "safer" cards had much better chances of winning than cards with new mechanics or ones that significantly changed games in interesting ways. I remember many cards that got very few votes (from myself included) because they did something interesting, but were significantly over- or under-powered, even if they could be fixed by simple cost changes or vanilla bonuses. I would encourage people to vote for these types of cards in the new contest, since I personally feel it would result in more interesting results.
Well, that's democracy for ya. Of course, that was the reason I brought up Soothsayer; it was a very original card that likely won
because it was fresh and exciting, but now the only thing we can agree on now is that we have no idea how to balance it.
But interestingly, the few playtest reports suggest the opposite of your intuition here. Apparently the players almost always discarded, all the way to the end.
Yeah, I re-read that thread just now and I must not have been paying attention the first time. I'll just move this discussion to the actual Soothsayer thread.