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Robz888

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Re: Survivor
« Reply #125 on: April 24, 2014, 02:12:30 am »
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SPOILERS................................................









Spencer blows it again! He HAD to play the idol on his buddy, there.

Tony finding the magic idol really makes things great for him. I assume it can't be played at F4, like the other idols. In which case, that's the only chance to vote him out, and if they don't, he wins. So he's either going to get fourth, or win. The guy's not like a proven challenge winner, though, so I don't think the outcome is guaranteed.

I am expecting either a Tony win, or a Trish win if Tony is voted out at four. In fact, I would say the odds of one of these two people winning is at least 80%. The only way for that not to happen is basically Spencer (or Tasha) to win immunity from here to the finals. Not impossible, but unlikely.

Woo, Kass, and Jefra are goats who will lose to whoever the other person is, unless they somehow are all three of the final three (very unlikely).
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Re: Survivor
« Reply #126 on: April 24, 2014, 06:56:06 am »
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SPOILERS................................................
You need more space there, since it's the first post on the page you still see the actual text as soon as you open the page.
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Robz888

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Re: Survivor
« Reply #127 on: April 24, 2014, 12:36:59 pm »
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SPOILERS................................................
You need more space there, since it's the first post on the page you still see the actual text as soon as you open the page.

I mean, people should know not to look in this thread until they have seen the episode.
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Re: Survivor
« Reply #128 on: April 24, 2014, 12:49:21 pm »
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SPOILERS................................................
You need more space there, since it's the first post on the page you still see the actual text as soon as you open the page.

I mean, people should know not to look in this thread until they have seen the episode.
I agree.


Trish is playing a surprisingly good game, she is very good socially. Tash is also very solid, this has been a good season as far as the level of play goes. Woo seems very non-strategic and Jefra is of course only there because she is pretty and reliable.

I agree it's looking great for Tony, we'll get to see more of him. His spyshack had me rolling on the floor, dude is so awesome! I hate that they brought back the super-idol though, it just seems so overpowered.

It's interesting what Spencer should have done there. I think playing the idol on yourself is probably the worst move? The problem is, even if he succeeds and they get Woo, they are still down in numbers and now Spencer has no idol. It might be that the best move would have been to keep the idol a secret, hope they  vote out Jeremiah and try to do some damage with Tash in the next tribal (they've both been immunity beasts, either of them pulling that off would have forced the six to turn on each other). I think Spencer let the fact that he'd regret going home with an idol get the best of him.

Robz, if he uses it on Jeremiah this tribal and is right, how much is his position really improved? They are still down in numbers, no with no idol.

Seems like they could have leveraged the Jefra situation better. I mean, at least get her to tell you who the other side is voting for? I understand her wanting to stay with the six, but they could have promised her they never target her if she just tells them how the six is voting for, and people could have even orchestrated multiple people offering her secret F3 deals if need be. Just seems like they had her on the hook and just let her go without getting anything from her. She recognizes her position in the alliance, so she definitely had the motive to help them a bit, even if she wasn't comfortable voting with them yet. Trish calming her down was once again masterful to watch. She really is very aware socially.
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Robz888

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Re: Survivor
« Reply #129 on: April 24, 2014, 12:58:58 pm »
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Robz, if he uses it on Jeremiah this tribal and is right, how much is his position really improved? They are still down in numbers, no with no idol.

Well, then theoretically Spencer has to find the re-hidden idol next week, Tasha or Jeremiah have to win immunity, Spencer tells no one, the other alliance votes Spencer, Spencer plays his idol and they get out like Trish or Kass or something. I guess in practice this will never work, because they don't know they can't actually target Tony. Really, they are probably just screwed.
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Re: Survivor
« Reply #130 on: April 24, 2014, 01:07:24 pm »
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Robz, if he uses it on Jeremiah this tribal and is right, how much is his position really improved? They are still down in numbers, no with no idol.

Well, then theoretically Spencer has to find the re-hidden idol next week, Tasha or Jeremiah have to win immunity, Spencer tells no one, the other alliance votes Spencer, Spencer plays his idol and they get out like Trish or Kass or something. I guess in practice this will never work, because they don't know they can't actually target Tony. Really, they are probably just screwed.
That doesn't seem very good. I don't think he should have played the idol on Jeremiah, it just doesn't improve his win odds enough. I think he should have gambled and saved it, but if you're voted out, your win equity goes to zero and this way he ensured he is there for three more days to create some chaos (as he seems to be doing in the preview).
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Re: Survivor
« Reply #131 on: April 24, 2014, 01:08:31 pm »
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I think the odds of them voting out Tony are rising all the time? People do perceive him as a threat, the problem is that the remaining brain members are also threats - major threats. Plus they don't realize that he has an idol. Still, I'd love to see Tony targeted at least a little more.
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Robz888

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Re: Survivor
« Reply #132 on: April 24, 2014, 01:11:11 pm »
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I think the odds of them voting out Tony are rising all the time? People do perceive him as a threat, the problem is that the remaining brain members are also threats - major threats. Plus they don't realize that he has an idol. Still, I'd love to see Tony targeted at least a little more.

The odds of them TRYING to vote him out might be rising, but these efforts will fail until F4 because of that idol. I would systematically eliminate Jeremiah, Spencer and Tasha at this point and then turn on Tony at F4, if I was someone in his alliance.
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Re: Survivor
« Reply #133 on: April 24, 2014, 01:12:11 pm »
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I think the odds of them voting out Tony are rising all the time? People do perceive him as a threat, the problem is that the remaining brain members are also threats - major threats. Plus they don't realize that he has an idol. Still, I'd love to see Tony targeted at least a little more.
Yeah, the problem for Jefra/Woo/Kass is that they aren't any better of with Tash and Spencer because they are equally hopeless against them in  F3 situation. It would be fun to see Tony lose the control for little bit, yes. The super idol makes that all but impossible, though. :/
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Robz888

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Re: Survivor
« Reply #134 on: April 24, 2014, 01:14:03 pm »
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I think Woo could win if the final ended up being Kass/Jefra/Woo. I don't think he is smart enough to realize that he needs to work toward that endgame, though.
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Re: Survivor
« Reply #135 on: April 24, 2014, 01:18:27 pm »
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I think Woo could win if the final ended up being Kass/Jefra/Woo. I don't think he is smart enough to realize that he needs to work toward that endgame, though.
Agreed. That's the only F3 any of them has any equity in. Somehow I don't see them suddenly starting to work towards that, though.
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Robz888

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Re: Survivor
« Reply #136 on: April 24, 2014, 01:22:33 pm »
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I think Woo could win if the final ended up being Kass/Jefra/Woo. I don't think he is smart enough to realize that he needs to work toward that endgame, though.
Agreed. That's the only F3 any of them has any equity in. Somehow I don't see them suddenly starting to work towards that, though.

I actually think Kass, ideally, SHOULD know that that's what she has to do to have any chance of winning. But she's such an arrogant fool, she actually thinks she is this suave mastermind who is going to get lots of appreciative votes. She totally thinks she could go toe to toe with anyone. So she won't bother engineering the F3 she needs. Fool.
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Re: Survivor
« Reply #137 on: April 30, 2014, 09:22:36 pm »
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SPENCER!SPENCER!SPENCER!

Spencer just trampled Tony with the "girl-alliance"! Although, I shudder at the thought, I think spencer is a goner. I'm looking forward to next week's episode. I'd like to correct a previous statement: Tony is sealed in the final three.
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Robz888

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Re: Survivor
« Reply #138 on: May 01, 2014, 01:11:52 am »
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That was such a stupid, foolish move for Tony. What does he have to fear from an all-girl alliance against him, even if it were true? He has two idols! He can't be voted out! He's not in danger until F4, at which point it doesn't matter who is left, they will all be voting for him if they can. He needs to win that immunity. He needs to weed out the players likely to beat him there, and the players likely to beat him in the end. These are the same goals: Tasha and Spencer. Saving Spencer here was absolutely ludicrous.
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AdamH

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Re: Survivor
« Reply #139 on: May 05, 2014, 11:50:12 pm »
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Just watched last week's episode.

Spencer <3 (just one heart. I'm trying to tone it down for this post)

I'll just say a couple of things. I feel like this cycle (S27 and this one) was where they revisited terrible ideas that everybody already decided were really bad for really good reasons. Redemption Island was universally hated and was a terrible thing for so many valid reasons, and any good parts to it were just invisible to everyone except for Jeff Probst because the bad parts just completely ruined the game for me/everyone who watches Survivor ever (this is an exaggeration, but I've never heard from anyone who said they didn't hate RI with a fiery passion). They brought it back and it continued to suck.

Then, Tony's OP idol? Why did they think that was a good idea to bring back?! Come on, it just takes so much out of the game. It guarantees that a certain person makes F4. Why do we want that? It's a much more exciting and difficult game if everybody is vulnerable at every vote but there's always a way (immunity) to save yourself. An OP idol like that requires no skills to actually use, I can't appreciate it like I do normal idols because those are hard to use correctly. This idol is just so OP that it ruins all of that for me and I've never heard anyone say they liked that version of the idol more than what they have now.

Robz, I think your wording is so strong it comes across as closed-minded. I get that you don't like Spencer, and he doesn't do everything perfectly, but that doesn't mean that everything he does is totally wrong. He made F6 and he's still there. Usually I react to that by just posting more hearts, but I'll just say that I think there's much more to the game than it appears you're seeing.

Even with Kass, I agree she said some things this episode that made me want to see her lose, but I think that's the edit talking. Just because we aren't hearing the intelligent confessionals we used to from back before the merge doesn't mean she turned into an idiot out there. It means that her move probably didn't work out for her and we're supposed to understand/feel better about why it happened.

Tony is flexing his Survivor-muscles. People say they don't trust him, but he's the one controlling every vote and he holds all of the power in the game. Granted, he's really lucky in a lot of cases, but you make your own shuffle luck. The only two reasons I wouldn't root for him are as follows:

1. He has an OP idol, so if he wins it will be cheapened by that. I'd be OK if he never told anyone and didn't have to use it, so KEEP HOPE ALIVE.

2. I have a giant man-crush on Spencer and I'd spend weeks doing nothing but crying into my pillow if he doesn't win the game.

Neither of these are good reasons, really. Tony is playing hard and I'd love to see someone playing that hard win the game. Tony listened to Spencer because Spencer had some good reasons and it could very well be that his move was in his best interests. We'll have to see if it works out for him.

Finally, I'd just like to announce that I'm thrilled that the last remaining model/actor  recruit   boobs/southern accent   "beauty" tribe member is gone. I didn't think any of them were all that attractive anyways (except for maybe Brice  :'( ). I'd actually be OK with any of the remaining people winning at this point except for maybe Woo because he hasn't really done anything.

Why was there a love scene between Probst and Woo over ribs? Now I'm hungry.
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Dsell

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Re: Survivor
« Reply #140 on: May 13, 2014, 05:49:47 pm »
+1

I'm rewatching heroes vs villains, just starting the final episode. Despite having a great season, I just cannot stand Russell. He makes all my spider senses tingle and he just has so many moments where he's a huge bully; it's more than just the edit talking.

I am so so so excited for him to get humbled when Sandra wins.

Also, my roommate and I decided to try to watch every season this summer! :D
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mcmcsalot

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Re: Survivor
« Reply #141 on: May 13, 2014, 05:52:59 pm »
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Also, my roommate and I decided to try to watch every season this summer! :D

Bold move my friend, I would love to but the filming of the old shows is so low quality it's hard for me to deal with.
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Dsell

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Re: Survivor
« Reply #142 on: May 13, 2014, 05:58:47 pm »
+1


Also, my roommate and I decided to try to watch every season this summer! :D

Bold move my friend, I would love to but the filming of the old shows is so low quality it's hard for me to deal with.

It is! :'( It's still survivor, but the switch to HD was a very, very good thing.
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Eevee

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Re: Survivor
« Reply #143 on: May 13, 2014, 06:48:47 pm »
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I'm rewatching heroes vs villains, just starting the final episode. Despite having a great season, I just cannot stand Russell. He makes all my spider senses tingle and he just has so many moments where he's a huge bully; it's more than just the edit talking.

I am so so so excited for him to get humbled when Sandra wins.

Also, my roommate and I decided to try to watch every season this summer! :D
Does he ever humble at all? As a recent rewatcher it seems to me his takeaway was more of the "this game is flawed"-persuasion.
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Re: Survivor
« Reply #144 on: May 13, 2014, 11:22:29 pm »
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I'm rewatching heroes vs villains, just starting the final episode. Despite having a great season, I just cannot stand Russell. He makes all my spider senses tingle and he just has so many moments where he's a huge bully; it's more than just the edit talking.

I am so so so excited for him to get humbled when Sandra wins.

Also, my roommate and I decided to try to watch every season this summer! :D
Does he ever humble at all? As a recent rewatcher it seems to me his takeaway was more of the "this game is flawed"-persuasion.

I had to leave midway through the episode. ::) But I thought I remembered him being really crushed...maybe humbled isn't the correct word, but I haven't watched since it originally aired. I guess at this point I'm in it for the schadenfreude one way or another.
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Eevee

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Re: Survivor
« Reply #145 on: May 15, 2014, 09:40:04 am »
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What a great episode! This season is so good, loving every minute of it.

The themes for 29 and 30 got spoilered I think. 29 will be blood versus water with all new players, and 30 will be an all legends season.

I will cry if Woo wins (and Kass obviously cannot win), but either of Tony or Spencer winning would be a  very satisfying ending to one of the best seasons ever. I think Spencer would be almost guaranteed to win a head to head match-up, but I also think Spencer needs one more immunity to make it to the end. Dream scenario is Spencer wins immunity, they buy Tony's lie about his idol being good until the end, and vote out Kass or Woo (=Woo) and we get to see Tony vs Spencer in the finals.
« Last Edit: May 15, 2014, 09:43:16 am by Eevee »
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Re: Survivor
« Reply #146 on: May 15, 2014, 09:56:33 am »
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I actually watched this episode live For The First Thyme In Forever™

Spencer clearly deserves more man-crush gushing, so <3 <3 <3 Spencer <3 <3 <3

Also, I really like the way Tony is playing. Yeah it seems reckless but he always ends up making very smart decisions, and you can afford to play much more aggressively when you have an idol, and even WAY more aggressively when you have two of them and one of them is totally broken. I just wish we could have heard why he decided to vote for Trish, but it would have killed the suspense for this vote. Hopefully we'll get to hear his thoughts about it in a week.

I think his bluff about the special idol's powers is brilliant, mostly because his idea for what that idol does is much, much better for the game than what it actually does. That idol would actually be interesting!

And Kass. You were doing so well until the last 10 seconds of the episode when you showed everyone your favorite finger. Trish was going to the jury and she was going to show them her true colors (did you SEE her face as she was casting her vote? Scary.) and you were going to come out fully on top of that exchange, but then you did that and now it all went to crap. I had so much respect for you until that gesture and now I don't. That's too bad.

Anyways, I'll be disappointed if Spencer (<3 <3 <3) doesn't win, but I'm quite OK with a Tony win at this point.
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Re: Survivor
« Reply #147 on: May 15, 2014, 12:18:37 pm »
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I just wish we could have heard why he decided to vote for Trish, but it would have killed the suspense for this vote. Hopefully we'll get to hear his thoughts about it in a week.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uOyeNvXZyqM
This is the most I found on that.
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Re: Survivor
« Reply #148 on: May 15, 2014, 12:27:46 pm »
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This makes sense. I was thinking it could have been possible that the other three people said they were definitely voting for Trish and he didn't want to give up on his special idol bluff to save her. I'm curious to know how much he's putting into that, particularly since we only got to see him tell Trish about it and she's gone now. I wonder if he's given that bluff to anyone else past implying things at Tribal Council.
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Re: Survivor
« Reply #149 on: May 15, 2014, 07:56:15 pm »
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I'm rewatching heroes vs villains, just starting the final episode. Despite having a great season, I just cannot stand Russell. He makes all my spider senses tingle and he just has so many moments where he's a huge bully; it's more than just the edit talking.

I am so so so excited for him to get humbled when Sandra wins.

Also, my roommate and I decided to try to watch every season this summer! :D
Does he ever humble at all? As a recent rewatcher it seems to me his takeaway was more of the "this game is flawed"-persuasion.

Reporting back on this - you were exactly right. I must be remembering his reaction to a different season because I def remember him on the verge of tears on some reunion. His actual reaction here didn't make me like him any better though...
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