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[AdamH]

Brain tribe, the least successful tribe in the history of the show?

Hey, Ulong was less successful, at least Spencer and Kass made it deep in the game that season. And however successful they were, I still liked them, especially Spencer <3 <3 <3

[Dsell]

Eevee, I agree with virtually every word of what you said! This season feels full of a lot of a lot of real and interesting people.

On that note, Adam, why do you call no collar the recruit/model tribe? I've enjoyed watching them quite a lot, though sure they've been making plenty of mistakes (chief among them was voting out Vince, which fell squarely on Will and surely doomed them). Calling them recruits seems to really belittle their genuinely interesting qualities, and the fact that they have the looks to be what you've called the "model" tribe shouldn't actually diminish their value as players. Jenn KEEPS talking about how she's been a fan since she was 8, and Haley is a criminal justice lawyer trying to overturn the freaking system! Of course, they must be judged on how they actually play, and so far it's so-so at best.

If I was gay, I'd want to date Joe.

F*** yes!! He's made some seriously questionable decisions, but all can be forgiven. I have a soft spot for Nina since I have moderate hearing loss myself, and I think that she may well have performed better than Will, but both of them are/were weak. Nina was playing pretty poorly and seemed to be overreacting to how the others were treating her.

Hey, Ulong was less successful, at least Spencer and Kass made it deep in the game that season. And however successful they were, I still liked them, especially Spencer <3 <3 <3

I loved brain tribe! Tosha was great too. A few of my friends who know Survivor say he and I are eerily similar. O.o

Edit: it's Hali and she's actually in law school rather than already a lawyer, oops.

[AdamH]

On that note, Adam, why do you call no collar the recruit/model tribe?

They're all from the LA area or were found on YouTube. As a YouTube sensation myself who has applied repeatedly, I recognize and embrace my personal bias on this issue.

But anyone who was recruited or anyone who says they're a fan of the show has something to prove to me. If Jenn was really a fan of the show I'd really expect her to play better than what she did. She was on her way to proving me wrong during the first episode but took steps backwards in both of the last two episodes.

Maybe I'm expecting too much, but I really enjoy watching people on reality TV who aren't caricatures, but are real people with real flaws and quirks and have depth to their personality. You know, people like me who would make great TV and aren't completely one-dimensional, and could arguably play the game at a high level at the same time (are you reading this CBS?) Joe is an attractive guy, don't get me wrong, but I just have trouble connecting with him. I tried connecting with Jenn but that hasn't gone so well. The other people on the tribe, meh.

As for the Blue Collar tribe, if I was into tattoos I could consider them to be pretty attractive too. And yeah they have character flaws and seem to be real people, but again they're one-dimensional (with the exception of Dan). They seem to cast a lot of law enforcement/firefighters and less software engineers and I wish they would showcase some other professions, you know? Hey, CBS, did you see my video? I develop software for a living! 

So yeah it's personal bias, I embrace that. Cast me, Probst.

[AdamH]

NOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!

You make me like him and then you vote him out!!!! 

This is so sad 

[Eevee]

Great double episode! I think Max, as a student of the game, took the old saying "you can't hide who you really are in survivor" a little too far and didn't even try to blend in.

Little gestures like orchestrating a birthday party go a long way in survivor. Despite Will knowing he is in the bottom in the NC 4, I don't doubt they'll stay together after the merge. If they can get together with some WC through Carolyn, we could see a lot of BC boots after the merge. Jenn is taking the narrator role, which is nice. Kelly is insanely tough, holy hell she stayed calm despite not seeing anything and bleeding all over. She is going to go far in the game, I'm sure. It's amazing how well she is staying under the radar.

Interested to see where the Joaquin/Rodney friendship develops. Fun times ahead! I really love this casting. I find Sierra annoying, and Hali is kind of a dud, but everyone else seems like a great character. Lots of powerful players left too, really hard to say how things will work out after the merge. The three tribe format seems pretty great.

edit: I loved Carolyn's flip. Tyler is still the only person who knows about her idol, right? She is going to be in a great position come the merge.

[AdamH]

Great double episode! I think Max, as a student of the game, took the old saying "you can't hide who you really are in survivor" a little too far and didn't even try to blend in.

Yeah this is sadly true. Here's a thought I had, though, along these same lines. When it came down to it, Jenn took the road of making fun of the hardcore fans of the show even though she claims to be a fan herself.

I wonder how many Geminis have won?

[Eevee]

Great double episode! I think Max, as a student of the game, took the old saying "you can't hide who you really are in survivor" a little too far and didn't even try to blend in.

Yeah this is sadly true. Here's a thought I had, though, along these same lines. When it came down to it, Jenn took the road of making fun of the hardcore fans of the show even though she claims to be a fan herself.

I wonder how many Geminis have won?

Being a fan doesn't have to mean obnoxiously bringing up weird little facts about the game all time. I don't think it was being a survivor fan that rubbed people the wrong way about Max (and Shirin).

I'm sort of sad no one seems to like Shirin. I find her quirkiness endearing, even if she is getting a horrible edit.

[AdamH]

Being a fan doesn't have to mean obnoxiously bringing up weird little facts about the game all time.

[Dsell]

Once again I agree with you, Eevee! Except that I don't think Hali is a dud, she seems interesting but just doesn't get tons of screen time. I didn't love the moment about the feet in the water pot, but I don't really think that was about feet in a water pot. She also has this super unique way of lounging on sand for confessionals.

I don't even think Shirin is getting that bad of an edit; the worst thing anyone can say about her is that she talks too much which appears demonstrably true. I think she seems really fun to be around, just not 24/7.

I'm really happy that no former tribe is dominating or getting decimated. White collar appears to be in the weakest position, but only because Shirin is in the weakest position.

I am unhappy that the new tribes are super unbalanced, which is only exacerbated by the loss of Max. The only sane prediction is total steamrolling by the red tribe unless something gets shaken up. Which is a shame because their tribal dynamics seem like they'd make for very juicy tribals.

[AdamH]

A few other thoughts about this episode.

The challenge with the "maze of holes" was such a cool idea! I was really thrilled to see that happen. I also liked that there were reward-only challenges, but they messed with me on the second one. There were clearly three slingshots there and you knew the tribe switch-up was coming. I thought for a moment that there would still be three tribes, which would have been amazing, but then they took away one of the slingshots after the switch-up and I was sad.

And finally, I think the editors are doing something really different this season -- they set up Rodney for a big fall and he didn't get one. They set up Jenn for a big fall two episodes ago and she didn't get one. They set it up so Shirin looked like a sure boot this time and she wasn't. Now I'm questioning a lot of things I normally think about the "winner's edit." They didn't have to show a lot of Rodney's scenes and they wouldn't have if he's going to win, but maybe he wins anyways! I've sort of dismissed a lot of people from winning this season but maybe they're trying to get us.

And finally, I really don't think Carolyn chose the best place to make her move. If she didn't like the other White Collars, she had options that would have moved her forward in the game (voting out Will was really good for her) but would have still kept around Max and Shirin, who actually still had loyalty to her -- it's actually the best kind of loyalty where you don't return the same loyalty if you can pull it off. She could have gotten together with Kelley and formed a bond there in the process and had a great position both now and when the tribes merge.

But she didn't want to keep people she felt were annoying around long enough to benefit from it, and now she's taken the good position she could have had and given it to the No Collars. I think she made a huge mistake.

[Eevee]

I don't think the red tribe will have time to get decimated, I would expect them to merge at 10. It will be interesting to see if Carolyn "flips back" and keeps Shirin now that she has nowhere else to go. The reason I liked her split was that the WC tribe was clearly divided anyways, and this way she got to do it on her terms. She also didn't lose anyone's but Shirin's trust, and she has absolutely no allies left, even that could be remedied.

I thought the editing was kick-ass already last season. So many power players seemingly destined for greatness crashing and burning the very next episode. I think they are being extra deceptive this time around though, especially the blue collar makes have been portrayed in a way that's not necessarily accurate. It just seems they didn't get along at all, and now suddenly they are all buddies again. Boston Knob (I love these nicknames) is of course a total spazz, but Dan and especially Mike almost seemed like they might have half a clue after all in the last episode. Dan definitely not way smarter than he looks though..

[Robz888]

NOTE: I have not watched this season yet, and am avoiding this thread like the plague. I'll post my thoughts when I catch up.

[Eevee]

NOTE: I have not watched this season yet, and am avoiding this thread like the plague. I'll post my thoughts when I catch up.

You should catch up! It's a good season.

Fine episode again (this was the one where Joaquin went home, for reference to Robz). Some thoughts:

Jenn in a good position and a lot of fun to root for. Mike has really cleaned up after a slow start, I'd put them two as the two most likely to win right now. I guess we'll see how good Tyler is as a player now that he is potentially in trouble for the first time. I think he has still played well, but his position isn't looking too good now and he's been very invisible lately. I'm officially giving up hope on Joe, I like him a lot but he is just not a very good survivor player. He definitely should have offered a place in the NC alliance for Sierra, it's two girls roughly her age, Will who must seem fun even from afar and Joe who everyone ever must have a crush on, what's not to love for her? She even said she hates all her options multiple times, Joe should really have offered her a new one. It's never a promising sign when everyone is throwing your name around all episode and you only get one confessional, Joe seems to just be floating around hoping everything will turn out fine and amazingly, that's exactly what happened here. Dan had a strong showing in the challenge, he's hanging in there surprisingly well. Shirin really impressed me with how well she took Max being voted out. I really liked how she realized her situation is bad, but tried to think of ways of fixing it instead of feeling sorry for herself. Honestly, she seems like someone that would be fun to have in your life. I'm hoping she'll find another friend in the island before she gets voted out. Joaquin gained my respect for taking the blindside in stride. "This was my faith, and I'm going to take it with a smile on my face" is the best way to go out of survivor.

So, seems like it's merge time next episode. Are Mike, Dan, Kelly and Sierra and the no collars forming a power alliance? That would leave Shirin, Hot Rod (it's really so easy), Tyler and Carolyn in trouble. That would be really interesting, since the alliance would be 4 no collars and 4 blue collars with Will knowing he is on the bottom on one side and Sierra really hating one person on the other and generally not feeling very in with them. Seems like Mike was the one that got her to stay with them this episode and is generally keeping her in the fold, so it will be interesting to see how he does going forward. Again, this was a really strong episode for Mike.

The challenges have been fun this season, by the way.

I'm liking Jenn, Joe and Shirin the most. Tyler seems to have played well but needs to do something more than avoid making mistakes now. Carolyn's stock fell this episode. Kelly is still a potential winner, her position in the game seems good and I don't think they could have made her look any better in the fiasco with the challenge. I hate Sierra. I feel the swing votes are often people I most dislike, I guess that's because they are often people who feel wronged by their alliance and act really whiny about it. Hali is still boring to me, but I don't actively dislike her. It's hard to say what Will will do, he definitely has the cards to getting far but needs to play them well. He won't get to the end ever by just riding the NC alliance, but it really gives him room to maneuver. I'm holding out hope he won't just stay idle until he is in the bottom and voted out, but we'll see.

It could also be that NC and BC don't go together, but I think the NC 4 will be in the majority no matter what (which is fine by me, I like them). The other option I see possible is NC staying with Carolyn, who would bring in Tyler and maybe Shirin (?), which would leave Rodney, Mike, Sierra, Dan and Kelly (later, as I think the bonds she's formed with the no collar will have some value) in trouble.

Either way, Jenn is looking good, so officially calling her to win now! The NC4 seems to be in a power position, but Hali and Joe seem incapable of making any moves, and while Will seems capable of moves, it's still highly questionable if he's capable of good moves. If they go with the WC, I see Tyler and Carolyn as her biggest competition, and if they go with BC, I see Mike and Kelly as the 2nd and 3rd most likely winners.

Looking forward to Rodney's reaction to the boot next week. It's going to be great tv.

[AdamH]

My fiancee and I were watching this episode together, and we were pretty sure Joe was going home as TC started, but then she noticed something (that went completely over my head). When Sierra was talking at TC about her situation and Mike gave her that awkward from-behind-hug, Sierra's expression was genuine, like she truly enjoyed it. This highlights a social game Mike seems to have that we're led to believe he doesn't, or at least that he didn't have for the first 9 days of the game. Could this be a story of personal growth for him that we'll see him reference at a FTC as a reason why he should win?

They showed a lot of the Blue Collar tribe early on when they really didn't have to, I'm pretty suspicious that one of them is going to win the game, which is unfortunate because the only one of them that I really like is Dan and there's just no way for him.

I'm really scared Rodney is going to win. I really hope he doesn't, but I just feel like it's going to happen. Please don't let that happen.

[Eevee]

Rodney can't win. No way no how.

[Eevee]

I've changed my mind!

In the latest episode, Sierra referring to Joaquin and Tyler as "the most trustworthy people around here", and that struck to me as weird. Joaquin certainly seemed like everything but trustworthy from the edit we got, starting with how he handled the decision in episode 1. Now, in his RHAP exit interview, Joaquin had nothing but highest praise to say about Tyler, he repeated how he loves the kid over and over and said he is probably the best person and purest soul he's ever met. Huh. I'm piecing together that it was Tyler's good guy qualities that also impressed Sierra, who then sort of projected them to Joaquin by association because he was fun to be around?

I think Mike's decision to vote Joaquin out over Joe is going to end up coming back to haunt him. Carolyn and Tyler were close with Joaquin, and Joe is an obvious threat from the opposing alliance, so I don't see Carolyn and Tyler being too happy with what happened. I think the BC alliance is in shambles. Sierra hates Dan and Rodney, who in turn is just wicked mad at all of them. The three of Kelly, Dan and Mike is solid, but the prospect of a solid five must seem threatening to everyone else in the game and the group is much less unified than it appears. If someone sees the block of five as a threat and goes looking for a crack, they don't exactly have to dig deep to find a huge canyon.

I think we'll have an unpredictable post-merge, but I wouldn't count out Tyler yet, and I think the great edit Mike has been getting is setting him up for a downfall. Dan should be safe for a while because he is the polar opposite of threatening, and Kelly has connections everywhere which might make the people who decide things want to keep her as a potential future number. That leaves Mike, who is also the head chief of the alliance and a big dude (who has sucked in challenges, but still), as the person to target for everyone else in the game. I don't necessarily credit the NC's with enough strategic acumen to see this, but I think Tyler and Carolyn will bring enough people, whoever they are, together to take Mike down. And soon.

[Eevee]

Omg this season is amazing. Both post-merge episodes have been incredible!

[WanderingWinder]

Being a fan doesn't have to mean obnoxiously bringing up weird little facts about the game all time.

This gif will get you an upvote from me in virtually any context.

[Eevee]

That Dan sure seems like a smart cookie.. At least you don't have to worry about him going through your mail and reading it since it seems he can't read.

[Dsell]

That Dan sure seems like a smart cookie.. At least you don't have to worry about him going through your mail and reading it since it seems he can't read.

This was such good tv. His pomposity is hilarious.

[AdamH]

Several points to make from the last few episodes, but I've either been lazy or forgotten to post about them.

Remember that challenge when Kelley got hit on the head and was bleeding everywhere? Well they bandaged her up for the rest of the challenge, which I agree with, but they didn't clean the blood off of her! Isn't that extremely dangrous? I remember feeling really uncomfortable watching that on TV, just feeling like I was going to catch something. Even when they went back to camp she still had some blood on her. I mean, wow.

So who's going to win this season? I can tell you lots of people who definitely aren't going to win, the ones I'm most sure of are Joe, Dan, and Carolyn. As for the other people, I think the people who have the strongest chances are:

Tyler: everybody trusts him, everybody likes him, nobody wants to vote him out.

Shirin: so this may seem like a bit of a stretch, but let's talk through some stuff about her. First, she's very similar to Sandra, people have been saying this all along since before the season started, her game has been very similar to Sandra's, which means she's very dangerous if she makes the merge. She made the merge. She's dangerous. She has a very good chance of being taken to the finals, because other people think she's not a threat to get jury votes, just like Sandra.

But you say she's been edited poorly? You say nobody actually likes her? Well first of all Sandra never had a glowing edit so that. But a few episodes ago after Max got voted out, Shirin had this confessional where she was very well-spoken and intelligent, she said that her game wasn't working for her because people didn't like her, so she needed to bond with these people and form friendships to get herself further. Well she certainly got on the No-Collar-Alliance's good side as it seems, so there's one success. She's in a great position now because Joe is a bigger threat than her and Jenn might just blow up next week (I have more on that later), so as the last member of that alliance who is standing, she has a great chance to crack the opposing alliance and have people on the jury who like her. Then there was this week, with her talk in the water with Dan. Listen to the music during that entire scene. Dan is heavily edited to look like a jerk and Shirin has totally stolen Rodney's 3Cs (cool, calm, and collective) and looked very intelligent. Why would they set that up without some kind of payoff? We now want Shirin to get the best of Dan, so my theory is that Dan is the real F3 goat and Shirin beats him in front of a jury. It would be a personal growth story arc for Shirin and I think she has a real shot at it.

Rodney: Yeah yeah I still haven't counted out the possibility that the editors are just messing with us and Rodney wins. I hope I'm wrong, and it will just make things so much more satisfying when he gets voted out :-)

So the previews for next episode, "Jenn might throw in the towel." I've been tough on Jenn all season, saying she's a fan but I don't really think she is. This preview alone is enough to show me I was right about her. No fan would ever get caught being out there and being like that, I don't know if she's talking about quitting but hopefully this episode will confirm that I was right about her. I don't get to be right very often so I'll be enjoying that :-)

And finally, I don't know how people feel about cast "spoilers" for future seasons, but there was some news just recently released on that front. Does anyone object to talking about that in this thread?

[Eevee]

I think I've seen the same stuff, but I think casting spoilers are fair game and an interesting topic. Maybe use spoiler tags?


Taking it back, Rodney absolutely can win. And I'm sort of pulling for it..

[AdamH]

Taking it back, Rodney absolutely can win. And I'm sort of pulling for it..

After this last episode I'm a little more freaked out about the possibility of a Rodney win. Both myself and my fiancee will be highly disappointed if that happens.

Shirin, though. If she survives next week I think she has a real shot at winning. Once Mike gets on the jury, that will be 4 people on the jury that really like her, and nobody left in the game even realizes that -- they could try to take her to the end as a goat and then just get crushed. At this point, I'm rooting for that to happen.

[Eevee]

I definitely agree about Shirin, both about the fact that she could win and about how she wouldn't be a bad winner.

Rodney was definitely the big winner in the last episode.

[Eevee]

Carolyn and Mike are overwhelming favorites to win out the rest of the immunities at this point, right? Which would make one of them a very likely winner. Mike is obviously winning in all scenarios if he gets there, but surviving any vote where he isn't immune seems like such an uphill battle. Carolyn's position hinges largely on how mad Rodney is at her, I guess we'll find out next week. Dan's double vote might not even be a factor, ever? It would be very good against split votes or for a faction with an idol, but not so much in the hands of a goat in the majority alliance.
 
If Sierra or Rodney can pull out an immunity win at some point and we see Rodney sweeping FTC against Will and Dan, it will be an amazing day.