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Author Topic: Has anyone learned Hearthstone yet?  (Read 274689 times)

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Drab Emordnilap

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Re: Has anyone learned Hearthstone yet?
« Reply #1900 on: October 30, 2014, 10:49:45 pm »
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If it's all about trading favorably with a 1-health minion, seems like Elven Archer/Mortal Coil/etc. do it just as well.


It's not all about that. It's also about trading your 1 drop for their 2 drop.
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ashersky

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Re: Has anyone learned Hearthstone yet?
« Reply #1901 on: October 30, 2014, 11:03:05 pm »
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If it's all about trading favorably with a 1-health minion, seems like Elven Archer/Mortal Coil/etc. do it just as well.


It's not all about that. It's also about trading your 1 drop for their 2 drop.

I guess.

Still seems like I'm always happy to see my opponent drop one and it's never serving it's purpose when I do.
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Re: Has anyone learned Hearthstone yet?
« Reply #1902 on: October 30, 2014, 11:03:33 pm »
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Separately, I've still yet to find a good guide on optimal resigning.  Anyone else seen anything to that effect?
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Re: Has anyone learned Hearthstone yet?
« Reply #1903 on: October 30, 2014, 11:17:59 pm »
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Separately, I've still yet to find a good guide on optimal resigning.  Anyone else seen anything to that effect?

Never resign? Honestly, there are tons of games that people give up on too early. Even when things seem hopeless they can turn around sometimes. Unless your opponent has obvious lethal and you can't stop it, don't resign. And even then, so many people miss super easy lethals that it almost worth sticking around just to see if they don't get it.
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Re: Has anyone learned Hearthstone yet?
« Reply #1904 on: October 30, 2014, 11:34:46 pm »
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Separately, I've still yet to find a good guide on optimal resigning.  Anyone else seen anything to that effect?

Never resign? Honestly, there are tons of games that people give up on too early. Even when things seem hopeless they can turn around sometimes. Unless your opponent has obvious lethal and you can't stop it, don't resign. And even then, so many people miss super easy lethals that it almost worth sticking around just to see if they don't get it.

I'm not talking about resigning mid/late game.  I mean resigning before it starts.  Discussions/guides on knowing which matches to bail on before wasting time on them are what I'm seeking.
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Re: Has anyone learned Hearthstone yet?
« Reply #1905 on: October 30, 2014, 11:50:05 pm »
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Separately, I've still yet to find a good guide on optimal resigning.  Anyone else seen anything to that effect?

Never resign? Honestly, there are tons of games that people give up on too early. Even when things seem hopeless they can turn around sometimes. Unless your opponent has obvious lethal and you can't stop it, don't resign. And even then, so many people miss super easy lethals that it almost worth sticking around just to see if they don't get it.

I'm not talking about resigning mid/late game.  I mean resigning before it starts.  Discussions/guides on knowing which matches to bail on before wasting time on them are what I'm seeking.

You mean if the match up is bad? Your odds are never so low that resigning is worth it before the game starts I don't think. Unless you're freeze mage vs warrior.
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Re: Has anyone learned Hearthstone yet?
« Reply #1906 on: October 31, 2014, 12:57:39 am »
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You mean if the match up is bad? Your odds are never so low that resigning is worth it before the game starts I don't think. Unless you're freeze mage vs warrior.

Yeah.  I see it often enough that I figured it was theorycrafted out.

Ranked play is attempting to win your way up the ladder, and your win/loss record actually doesn't matter whatsoever.  So it comes down to using your time as efficiently as possible to get more wins than losses.

For example, in the time it takes me to lose a 27 turn game to a Control Warrior, I could have gone 4-1 or 3-2 against a number of other opponents.  Even if I only get two wins and no losses in during the time it would have taken me to lose the game I resigned, I'm ahead on stars.

For me, it seems like the decision tree looks something like:

#1 - Have I won two or more games previous to this one?  If yes, play the game.  If no, go to #2.
#2 - Is your opponent's class, regardless of deck type, one that will result in a game of >X turns more than X% of the time?  If no, play the game.  If yes, go to #3.
#3 - Is the amount of time it takes to play >X turns greater than playing X other games?

And so on...I don't know all the right questions yet, or the right numbers to fill in the Xs, so I was hoping the work had been done.

There may be other variables (i.e., is your opponent golden? etc.) to take into account for sure.  And this is all pre-legend, so I'm sure there's even more though to be put into it depending on specific rank.  Then again, if you are Legend, the stars thing doesn't matter and the level of competition is invariably better, so there's even more to compute.

Basically, there's an equation that weighs the time you have to spend to possibly/probably lose.  So for example, if I lose 60% of all games against Warriors, and 80% of all those losses take 10 minutes or more, it's more cost-effective to just resign all games against warriors before wasting the time in favor or seeking better matchups (numbers still made up).
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Re: Has anyone learned Hearthstone yet?
« Reply #1907 on: October 31, 2014, 01:04:25 am »
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Just finished an Arena run (4-3 on a druid) and opened up Al'Akir! I'm pretty excited as it's been awhile since I opened a legendary.
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Re: Has anyone learned Hearthstone yet?
« Reply #1908 on: October 31, 2014, 01:06:20 am »
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Just finished an Arena run (4-3 on a druid) and opened up Al'Akir! I'm pretty excited as it's been awhile since I opened a legendary.

Congrats!  Al'Akir always seemed really strong to me.  Al'Akir + Rockbiter x2 is nice.
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Re: Has anyone learned Hearthstone yet?
« Reply #1909 on: October 31, 2014, 02:28:24 am »
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Resigning before a match starts is often done by botters to artificially keep their rank low to make winning easier. If you're playing to get better, I don't think resigning is ever in your best interests. There are always going to be bad matchups, but unless you're nearing legend you can probably get a decent enough win rate just by being a better player and getting practice on how to play against those decks. If nothing else, if you ever do switch to a deck like Control Warrior, it helps to know how other people play against a deck like that.

Edit: tl;dr Resigning to get a better matchup improves short term win rate at cost of long term win rate. Think of it like learning how to build engines in Dominion by making all the stupid ones you see, eventually you'll start pulling together some really interesting combos on otherwise boring kingdoms.
« Last Edit: October 31, 2014, 02:30:48 am by Titandrake »
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Re: Has anyone learned Hearthstone yet?
« Reply #1910 on: October 31, 2014, 02:47:22 am »
+1

Basically, there's an equation that weighs the time you have to spend to possibly/probably lose.  So for example, if I lose 60% of all games against Warriors, and 80% of all those losses take 10 minutes or more, it's more cost-effective to just resign all games against warriors before wasting the time in favor or seeking better matchups (numbers still made up).
I agree that in principle pre-resigning could be part of an optimal ranking strategy, since really it's just an extreme case of resigning a game that's all-but-lost but dragging on. I really doubt that it's optimal with any typical ladder deck. But it may be fun to analyze, so here goes.

Let's ignore win streaks to start with. It's worth resigning when
E[stars earned by finishing the game] < E[stars earned during the time gained by resigning] - 1.
The "- 1" comes in because you're immediately losing a star by resigning the game. Note: the right-hand side better be bigger than -1 or you're not going to be ranking up on average.

Let P be the probability of winning the current game. Let T be the expected time remaining in the current game. Let S be your average star gain per time elapsed. Then we can rewrite the above inequality as
2*P - 1 < S*T - 1.

To compute this, you'll need some rough estimate of these quantities. But just to see whether pre-resigning could plausibly be a good strategy, let's use some rough bounds: let's assume each game takes 5-15 minutes and the probability of winning is in 20%-80%. Then, at best, you can play 12 games per hour and earn an average of 2*0.8 - 1 = 0.6 stars each. So S <= 7.2 stars per hour. If you're at the beginning of a game, P >= 0.2, and T <= 0.25 hours.

So
2*P - 1 = 0.4 - 1 = -0.6
and
S*T - 1 = 7.2 * 0.25 - 1 = 0.8.
That means it's at least plausibly correct to pre-resign hopeless long matches. You'd need to actually know your per-matchup probabilities and game lengths to do so, though.
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Re: Has anyone learned Hearthstone yet?
« Reply #1911 on: November 03, 2014, 01:17:42 am »
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More experienced people are probably jaded to this, but I put together a Miracle rogue and oh my goodness is it ridiculous to see go off. I just missed lethal in a game, not because I didn't add correctly, but because I didn't account for drawing the damage I needed out of the 6 cards I drew that turn. And in retrospect my play was entirely wrong, because it was actually very, very likely that I would draw into lethal, and letting my enemy get one more turn would have made me lose a lot of the time (9 heath left against a Hunter with a clear board on turn 8 is still not very safe.)

The deck is very not-optimized, but it feels like you can play Miracle really terribly and still do decent, because the burst is that good.
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Drab Emordnilap

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Re: Has anyone learned Hearthstone yet?
« Reply #1912 on: November 03, 2014, 07:55:48 am »
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You can play Miracle terribly and do decent in a given game if things come together for you, but a deck with that many moving parts surely gives you many more opportunities to misplay than a simpler deck does.
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Re: Has anyone learned Hearthstone yet?
« Reply #1913 on: November 03, 2014, 01:18:33 pm »
+1

For example, in the time it takes me to lose a 27 turn game to a Control Warrior, I could have gone 4-1 or 3-2 against a number of other opponents.  Even if I only get two wins and no losses in during the time it would have taken me to lose the game I resigned, I'm ahead on stars.
I can't imagine the expected time of any matchup is 5x as long as other matchups (including search time).

Quote
Basically, there's an equation that weighs the time you have to spend to possibly/probably lose.  So for example, if I lose 60% of all games against Warriors, and 80% of all those losses take 10 minutes or more, it's more cost-effective to just resign all games against warriors before wasting the time in favor or seeking better matchups (numbers still made up).
I don't think there is any deck that has a hope of making legend that wants to resign immediately vs any class. It's much more likely that there's a decision to be made at turn 4 or something, where you're pretty sure of what variation of deck they have and how your hand/board is looking. All in all, it seems very complex for minimal gain. I can't imagine your win probability discrepancy can be big enough for this to significantly increase your rate of gaining stars.
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Re: Has anyone learned Hearthstone yet?
« Reply #1914 on: November 03, 2014, 01:40:06 pm »
+1

For example, in the time it takes me to lose a 27 turn game to a Control Warrior, I could have gone 4-1 or 3-2 against a number of other opponents.  Even if I only get two wins and no losses in during the time it would have taken me to lose the game I resigned, I'm ahead on stars.
I can't imagine the expected time of any matchup is 5x as long as other matchups (including search time).

Quote
Basically, there's an equation that weighs the time you have to spend to possibly/probably lose.  So for example, if I lose 60% of all games against Warriors, and 80% of all those losses take 10 minutes or more, it's more cost-effective to just resign all games against warriors before wasting the time in favor or seeking better matchups (numbers still made up).
I don't think there is any deck that has a hope of making legend that wants to resign immediately vs any class. It's much more likely that there's a decision to be made at turn 4 or something, where you're pretty sure of what variation of deck they have and how your hand/board is looking. All in all, it seems very complex for minimal gain. I can't imagine your win probability discrepancy can be big enough for this to significantly increase your rate of gaining stars.

I agree with HME. I can see the merit of quick resigning if you're grinding quests where it's more about meeting victory conditions in minimal time and you just care about getting gold for Arena runs or packs or w/e, but you have to win 2 games to make up for any games you resign when grinding stars (plus it breaks streaks). It doesn't seem worth it if you care about reaching a high rank.
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Re: Has anyone learned Hearthstone yet?
« Reply #1915 on: November 03, 2014, 07:54:47 pm »
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For example, in the time it takes me to lose a 27 turn game to a Control Warrior, I could have gone 4-1 or 3-2 against a number of other opponents.  Even if I only get two wins and no losses in during the time it would have taken me to lose the game I resigned, I'm ahead on stars.
I can't imagine the expected time of any matchup is 5x as long as other matchups (including search time).

Quote
Basically, there's an equation that weighs the time you have to spend to possibly/probably lose.  So for example, if I lose 60% of all games against Warriors, and 80% of all those losses take 10 minutes or more, it's more cost-effective to just resign all games against warriors before wasting the time in favor or seeking better matchups (numbers still made up).
I don't think there is any deck that has a hope of making legend that wants to resign immediately vs any class. It's much more likely that there's a decision to be made at turn 4 or something, where you're pretty sure of what variation of deck they have and how your hand/board is looking. All in all, it seems very complex for minimal gain. I can't imagine your win probability discrepancy can be big enough for this to significantly increase your rate of gaining stars.

I think your second point may very well be right -- the problem with waiting until T4 or so is that you end up with what I call the "human factor" in that you start thinking "well if I draw X next, I can do Y and possible hold out long enough to draw Z" and then you end up on T27 and the mage has 15 life + 16 shield and an Ice Block waiting to be triggered.  And at that point, I've wasted 15 minutes just to lose a star.

I want to optimize every minute I spend on Hearthstone because I have a limited amount of time for games.  The best use of my time is winning games, especially in sets of three (for 10 gold).  The second goal is gaining stars.  I'm not tracking win/loss record or anything else, as that doesn't actually matter for anything.

So when I'm playing my aggro hunter deck, I'm always thinking "can I win?  should I resign?" from the moment my opponent is chosen.  Sometimes it's T5 when I can make the call, but the fewer turns it takes (down to zero turns) to figure it out, the better.

It's why I don't play my Druid decks anymore -- waiting until T9 for the win condition takes too long.
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Re: Has anyone learned Hearthstone yet?
« Reply #1916 on: November 03, 2014, 09:15:34 pm »
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From the sounds of it, you would probably get more mileage out of getting a more accurate guess in the midgame (around T5/T6) on whether you can win, rather than just resigning at the start. Depending on how much you value stars, you could be resigning every game to artificially keep yourself at rank 20 if you really wanted to, but that's a bit silly (you're essentially grinding like it's an MMORPG at that point.)

If your worry is gold, then arena should be better, and you always have the option to switch your gold bank into packs from the shop if you want the packs now. If your worry is both gold and time, I think arena is still better than constructed for building a collection, but not 100% on that...of course you have to like arena in the first place.

If you aren't already doing so, you may want to do quest optimization too. If the limiting factor is time, reject all quests except 40 gold ones (60 gold ones are 12 gold a win, the 100 gold quest is ~14 gold a win). If you have time to finish a quest every day, reject all the 40s.
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Re: Has anyone learned Hearthstone yet?
« Reply #1917 on: November 04, 2014, 02:28:30 am »
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Good points.  I do quest optimization already.

On arena, man, I just don't win enough, so I average a net loss of 15 gold or so. 

The grind does feel like WOW in a lot of ways...opening packs is like boss loot...generally DE for dust.
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Re: Has anyone learned Hearthstone yet?
« Reply #1918 on: November 04, 2014, 08:37:39 am »
+1

The grind does feel like WOW in a lot of ways...opening packs is like boss loot...generally DE for dust.

Seriously, we only have three mages, and fucking Netherwind Pants again?!
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Re: Has anyone learned Hearthstone yet?
« Reply #1919 on: November 05, 2014, 01:37:03 pm »
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Re: Has anyone learned Hearthstone yet?
« Reply #1920 on: November 05, 2014, 03:39:54 pm »
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Re: Has anyone learned Hearthstone yet?
« Reply #1921 on: November 07, 2014, 01:15:42 am »
+3

Just opened Cairne!
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Re: Has anyone learned Hearthstone yet?
« Reply #1922 on: November 07, 2014, 06:59:35 pm »
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Quite a controversy in decider match of group D. Kolento was losing 2nd match when connection failed, then won rematch. 1:1 now
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Re: Has anyone learned Hearthstone yet?
« Reply #1923 on: November 07, 2014, 07:04:59 pm »
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Quite a controversy in decider match of group D. Kolento was losing 2nd match when connection failed, then won rematch. 1:1 now
I was watching it and I wouldn't say that he was losing. As the commentators mentioned, top-decking Savage Roar would have instantly won him the game. Even if he hadn't, the game wasn't over yet. Maybe he was behind (due to running low on cards), but not hopelessly.
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Re: Has anyone learned Hearthstone yet?
« Reply #1924 on: November 07, 2014, 08:07:44 pm »
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Quite a controversy in decider match of group D. Kolento was losing 2nd match when connection failed, then won rematch. 1:1 now
I was watching it and I wouldn't say that he was losing. As the commentators mentioned, top-decking Savage Roar would have instantly won him the game. Even if he hadn't, the game wasn't over yet. Maybe he was behind (due to running low on cards), but not hopelessly.

If he was behind on cards, and he just needed a specific topdeck, I'd say he was winning.
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