Just about all of you know about the link to the Councilroom "Popular Buys" page at
http://councilroom.com/popular_buys . Looking at that, it struck me as interesting that a lot of very popular cards actually don't fare that well, if you compare "win rate with" to "win rate without" that card. So I thought I would calculate an
overvaluation rating, to indicate the cards that are often bought but have poor win rates. Using the equation:
overvalue=p/(1-p)*(win_rate_wo-win_rate_with) where p=pct. of time card was bought, here are the top ten
overvalued cards, starting with the most overvalued (keep in mind that these stats precede Dark Ages and Guilds, so none of those cards are considered here):
1.
Silver: pct.=87.8%, win rate with=.98, win rate wo=1.13. Interestingly, those situations where silver is not bought does much better than when silver
is bought. What does this mean? I guess, think twice about buying silver if there are other good options available. Perhaps it
is generally better to buy two kingdom cards then buying that silver on your first two turns. Does anybody else have a better interpretation of this?
2.
Highway: pct=82.9%, win rate with=.98, win rate w/o=1.09. Highway is deceptive. Even though Highway is rated right in the middle at 25th out of 48 5-cost cards on latest Qvist rankings, Councilroom evidence is that the rare individual that stays away from it does much better. Why? I guess it is no better than Peddler without a source of buy, and at a cost of 5, there are likely better choices in the kingdom available at the 5 cost point.
3.
Worker's Village!: pct=84.9%, win rate with=.99, win rate w/o=1.07. Considered one of the best villages, what a surprise this one is! By itself, it takes care of two of the necessary items for an engine: +actions and +buy. But does that justify its use 85% of the time? It is rated 17th out of 53 of the top 4-cost cards in Qvist rankings.
4.
Throne Room: pct=73.4%, win rate with=.96, win rate w/o=1.12. Interestingly, while the stats show that King's Court is generally an excellent buy, it's younger brother should generally be skipped. Throne Room is ranked 15th in the top 4-cost cards in the Qvist rankings. Why is it so overrated? Well, I can only speak for myself... it is alarming how often my Throne Room appears in a hand with no other actions, in which case it is a dead card.
5.
Black Market: pct=71.0%, win rate with=.95, win rate w/o=1.13. Black Market may be the "funnest" card in the game, but if you are playing to win, evidence shows that most of the time you should pass it by.
6.
Bridge: pct=77.0%, win rate with=.97, win rate w/o=1.10. Hmmm, are you starting to notice a pattern here? All of the cards so far, including this one, are used heavily in engines. Perhaps the temptation to build engines when they are not the best choice is too high? Bridge is rated all the way up to 10th out of 53 4-cost cards in the Qvist rankings.
7.
University: pct=63.8%, win rate with=.92, win rate w/o=1.13. Another village good for engines, it requires a side step to buy a potion as well. It is doubtful that that should warrant a 63.8% usage rate, especially considering the 21% win rate difference between those using it and those not.
8.
Pirate Ship: pct=52.1%, win rate with=.84, win rate w/o=1.16. A whopping 32% win rate difference shows what a trap card this can be. I guess "boys" like to be pirates. Then they get whipped by the men on the other side of the table.
9.
Festival: pct=83.1%, win rate with=.99, win rate w/o=1.06. What a surprise this one is to me! On a card that is almost always better than silver. But people are likely to bypass better 5-cost cards, I guess. I suspect that people are buying it too often, this card might be better passed up unless building an engine. Festival is rated 28th out of 61 5-cost cards in the Qvist rankings.
10.
City: pct=80.9%, win rate with=.99, win rate w/o=1.06. Until one or more stacks are emptied, this is just an expensive village. City is rated 34th out of 61 5-cost cards in the Qvist rankings.
Honorable Mentions: (11th-15th, in order): Great Hall, Village, Smugglers, Walled Village, Farming Village.
General comments: Notice that the top 15 has 7 villages and almost all the cards are best used in engines [and the next eight includes 3 more villages]. I suspect that people are trying to force engines on boards that are best suited to "big money", since engines are fun to build. At least I know that I am oriented this way. It doesn't mean that these cards are never good. Thirteen of the fifteen cards are bought at least 70% of the time. Perhaps people are assuming that by themselves, they make an engine, rather than that all the pieces are there.
I would be interested in other's take on these statistics. By the way, this is my first post on these forums!
Jim