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[EFHW]

Harry Potter Mafia

Player List
1.  yuma
2.  Jimmmmm Death Eater -- lynched Day 4
3.  liopoil -- House lynched Night 3
4.  Galzria
5.  chairs  Death Eater and Roleblocker  -- lynched Day 1
6.  Voltaire
7.  mail-mi Death Eater -- lynched Day 2
8.  Robz Ministry-aligned Wizard -- rendered unconscious Night 1
9.  UmbrageOfSnow
10.  nkirbit Ministry-aligned Wizard -- lynched Day 3
11.  Eevee
12.  ashersky


Tag:
Shraeye

Backup mod: Twistedarcher

Day starts:
Day 1
Day 2
Day 3

Base Setup– see PM’s for powers

You are the incoming first year class at Hogwarts.  Each of you has a mentor helping to guide you through this difficult first year.  These mentors are veterans of the war against You-Know-Who.  Some of them are dead, but this is magic, so that's ok.  But some of the mentors are Death Eaters, and they have converted 3 of your class into Death Eaters as well.  It will be up to the rest of you to root out these evildoers.  And even though you are surrounded by highly skilled witches and wizards, you have to do this all on your own (and be sure to face lots of mortal danger so it's a good story).  But some of you have already learned some skills from your mentors that may come in handy...
 
2 Death Eaters
1 Death Eater Legilimens/Impedimenta (Rolecop/Roleblock)
1 Ministry-Aligned Vote Fixer
1 Ministry-Aligned Healer (Doctor)
1 Ministry-Aligned Auror (Tracker/Watcher)
6 Ministry-Aligned Witches/Wizards

Each player is also a Neighbor with two other people.

Role PMs

Each player will have this section in their role PM:

You are a member of [House name here].  You will be Neighbors with your fellow [House name]s,  [playername] and [playername] and will have night chat in the [House] Common Room.

• Each night you and your housemates may choose one player who you think is scum.  This player gets a permanent vote from your House.  If any player has permanent votes from all the Houses except their own, they are lynched at the start of the next Day.  Your House has to reach a unanimous consensus to place a permanent vote.
  

Welcome to Hogwarts, [PlayerName]. You are a Ministry-Aligned Witch/Wizard .  Your mentor is [flavor name here]

• Your weapon is your vote, you have no night actions. (But keep your wand handy too, just not in your back pocket.)

You win when all threats to the Town have been eliminated and there is at least one Ministry player alive.

Welcome to Hogwarts, [PlayerName]. You are a Ministry-Aligned Healer.  Your mentor is Madam Pomfrey

• Once each night you can submit the name of a player.  That player will be protected from nightkills that night.
• Your probability of success as healer depends the number of permanent House votes you have at the END of the night phase.  Each vote reduces your probability of success by 25%.
• One night only you may choose a player to give an Invisibility Potion, a 1-shot means of escape from attack, rendering 1 killing spell ineffective (1-shot Bulletproof).  You can only give this potion to someone who has no permanent votes at the beginning of the night.

You win when all threats to the Town have been eliminated and there is at least one Ministry player alive.

Welcome to Hogwarts, [PlayerName]. You are a Ministry-Aligned Auror/Combined Tracker-Watcher.  Your mentor is Alistair (Mad-Eye) Moody.

• Each night you may submit the name of one player via PM.  At the end of the night you will be told the names of anyone that player targeted that night and anyone who targeted that player that night.
• Because your mentor is a bit paranoid, you can be kind of jumpy too.  You are suspicious of everyone, and each night that you catch someone there will be one other person in your results list who doesn't belong there (randomly chosen from the other players still alive that night).  This person will always be in a list with at least one other person.  So if you get "targeted X" and "was targeted by noone" (besides you) as your true results, you also will receive "targeted Z" as a result.  You could not receive a random "targeted by" result because there are no true names on that list other than your own.

You win when all threats to the Town have been eliminated and there is at least one Ministry player alive.

Welcome to Hogwarts, [PlayerName]. You are a 2-shot Vote Fixer .  Your mentor is Dolores Umbridge.  While you are associated with the Ministry, you like to be behind the scenes pulling the strings so things go the way you want them to. 

• During two different night phases you may submit the name of one player and one House via PM.  That player’s permanent vote by the House you specify will be erased.
• This action can be tracked and watched, with the chosen player as your target.

You win when all threats to the Town have been eliminated and there is at least one Ministry player alive.

Welcome to Hogwarts, [PlayerName]. You are a Death Eater, along with your Death Eater partners, [PlayerName] and [PlayerName].  Your mentor is [mentor name here]

• Your safeclaim mentor is [safename here].
• During each Night Phase you may talk with your partners here: [QuickTopic link].
• Each night phase, you or one of your partners may perform the factional Avada Kadavra. 

You win when the Death Eaters control half the town and it is impossible for a Death Eater to be House-lynched, or if nothing can stop this from happening.

Welcome to Hogwarts, [PlayerName]. You are a Death Eater Legilimens/Impedimenta, along with your Death Eater partners, [PlayerName] and [PlayerName].  Your mentor is Barty Crouch, Jr.

• Your safeclaim mentor is [safename here].
• During each Night Phase you may talk with your partners here: [QuickTopic link].
• Each night phase, you or one of your partners may perform the factional Avada Kadavra. 
• Each night phase you may choose to either investigate another player's role, or block another player's night actions.  You can submit your orders by PM or in the QT thread.

You win when the Death Eaters control half the town and it is impossible for a Death Eater to be House-lynched, or if nothing can stop this from happening.

Flavor names ARE relevant to roles and therefore alignment.

Mafia Ruleset (blatantly stolen from Axxle Jimmmmm)

Game Rules:
General Gameplay and Etiquette:
1. You may not quote private Moderator-supplied information (either real or fabricated) of any kind. Paraphrasing (for role claims, etc.) is acceptable.
2. There is to be NO personal communication outside of the forum postings unless your role PM specifically allows it. Mafia members All roles with a quicktopic may communicate at night.  House members may also talk in their Common Rooms during the confirmation stage. Death Eaters will not have access to their QT until N1.
3. If you have a role with a Night action your choices are due to me by the posted deadline. If I do not receive your choice via PM by the posted deadline you will forfeit your actions. In case of multiple submissions, the last valid one before the deadline will be used.
4. Roles with Night actions will not be able to submit an action on Night 0 (i.e. during the confirmation stage).
5. Any player or house with a Night action may instead submit a “No Action” PM or bolded QT post to let the Mod know that you do not want to perform your expected action that Night phase.
6. As a general rule you should aim for one post every 48 hours, minimum, to keep the game moving.

Voting, Deadlines, and Player Death:
1. A simple majority (rounded up) of all living members must agree on one person for a lynch to occur prior to deadline.
2. Once you have reached a simple majority, no further unvoting will change someone’s fate. Further votes will also be ignored.
3. Once a player is lynched the game enters twilight until I post a death scene; all players including the one who was lynched may continue to post during twilight.
3a.  House lynches do not trigger the end of a day.
4. Please submit votes as: Vote: PlayerName. Votes will NOT be counted if they are not bold! Obvious abbreviations or nicknames will be counted so long as they are unambiguous.
5. Please submit vote revocations as either Unvote: PlayerName or Unvote. Unvotes are not necessary before changing votes.
6. You may Vote: No Lynch - a simple majority of this vote type is required to send the game to Night phase without a lynch.
7. In-House voting:  House votes must be agreed upon unanimously to become permanent.  The lynch is not instantaneous, however.  Players may change their minds until Day starts.  At the start of Day, any change ordered by the Fixer will be applied and then the House vote counts will be presented, and if applicable, lynched players will die and flip.
8. This game will have 2 week a base of 7 day lynch deadlines and 48 72-hour night deadlines, extended at my discretion for weekends and holidays.  Unused Daytime real-time days can accumulate with a reasonable degree of approximation to be used in future Days.
9. Once you are killed (either via lynch or night kill) you may no longer post. This means that you do not even get a “Bah” post. The dead in this game are silent.
10. Do not edit or delete posts. We don't want some players having more information than others.  If you want to clarify posts, feel free to double post.

Miscellaneous/Mechanics:
1. Bold, blue text is reserved for the Mod. No invisible/small text is allowed, nor is cryptography.
2. If you have an issue/problem with the game, please PM the Mod privately. Do not post issues/complaints in the game thread.
3. The Mod may make mistakes - please point out any mistakes gently. Mistakes will be corrected where possible, but sometimes mistakes are made that cannot be reversed. These will stand as final to be commiserated over after the game.
4. Please bold all requests to the Mod so that they don’t get missed.
5.Prods of missing players will be issued upon request after 48 hours of no activity. A prodded player has 48 hours to respond or risks replacement. A player who has been prodded 3 times is subject to replacement without further notice.
6. Rule violations will be dealt with according to their severity, up to and including a Modkill.
7. If you anticipate being unavailable for more than a 48-hour period please post a notice to that effect in the thread. Treat this game as a commitment. Be considerate – don’t leave us hanging.
8. No QT links are to be shared with any other player. So for example if a member of Ravenclaw is also a Death Eater, he or she is not allowed to share the Ravenclaw QT link with his or her Death Eater partner(s) from other houses. Real or fake quoting of players (not mods) from QTs is acceptable.

The Golden Rule:
Please remember that this is a game and your main objective is to have fun! Be considerate of each other, don’t get personal, and enjoy the game.  If you haven’t already, check out and endorse the Civility Pledge.

Helpful Links:

Main Wiki Page

Newbie Guide

Frequently Asked Questions

Commonly Used Abbreviations

Mafia Theory
[/list]

[EFHW]

PM's have been sent.  Please confirm by pm or in House QT.

[EFHW]

DAY 1 START

Twelve nervous first year students filed into the Great Hall, led by Hagrid in his heavy moleskin coat.   Four long tables of Hufflepuffs, Ravenclaws, Slytherins and Gryffindors looked on expectantly.  Eevee, Jimmmmm, liopoil, chairs, ashersky, Robz, yuma, mail-mi, Galzria, UmbrageOfSnow, Voltaire and nkirbit gathered in front of the long staff table where tiny Professor Flitwick waited, standing on a stack of books next to a stool, on which sat a battered leather wizard’s hat.  Professor McGonagall, Headmistress of Hogwarts, looked down austerely from her spot in the center seat.  Professors Trelawny, Sinistra, Vector, EFHW and Twistedarcher also looked on with interest at the new class of wizards joining Hogwarts.  “Has Hogwarts become an all boys’ school?” whispered Professor Sprout to the portrait of Albus Dumbledore propped up in the seat next to Professor McGonagall.  But he was prevented from answering by the leather hat which broke into song (well, more like free verse, really). 

I am the Sorting Hat. 
Every year I sing a song
Of friendship, magic and rivalry.
This year I fear
I have to add
There is evil coming to Hogwarts.
Our twelve new students are innocent now,
But three will be corrupted.
Be on your guard – it might be you.
And don’t trust anything
That can think for itself,
Unless you can see
Where it keeps its brain!

   The staff all looked shocked and worried and the twelve first years looked at each other uneasily, and seemed to move away from each other, while trying to look innocent.  Professor Flitwick called out the first name: “ashersky!”  ashersky came forward and perched himself on the stool.  Professor Flitwick put the hat on his head and everyone waited.  But nothing seemed to be happening!  Then ashersky nodded, hopped down from the stool and took off the hat.   Everyone in the Hall clamored for him to tell them what house he was in, but he would only shrug and say “I have a plan, but it’s not time for that yet.”   One by one, Professor Flitwick called the names: “chairs!”, “ Eevee!”, “Galzria!”, until finally he reached “yuma!”  Each time the student would nod and give back the hat, keeping their conversations with the Sorting Hat private.  At the end, all the first years were still standing around, because none of them would tell anyone their house, so they couldn’t go to a table.  Professor McGonagall said “Very well” and conjured up a table and benches just for them, complete with golden plates.  She asked Professor Flitwick to notify the house elves of the new table after he put away the hat and stool.  “I guess you will be sleeping here, too,” she said, “I’ll conjure you some sleeping bags after the feast.” 

Several Hours Later:  Exhausted by the long day, and stomachs full of really yummy food, the twelve first years quickly dropped off to sleep in their puffy purple sleeping bags.  No one noticed the three malevolent ghostly figures appear above their group in the early morning hours.  The ghosts drifted down noiselessly, grimaced nastily at each other, and finally disappeared into the bodies of three of the slumbering students.

TO BE CONTINUED .....

Not voting (12): Eevee, Jimmmmm, liopoil, chairs, ashersky, Robz, yuma, mail-mi, Galzria, UmbrageOfSnow, Voltaire, nkirbit

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch

Deadline: Monday August 5th, 10 pm Forum time

[yuma]

first for the first time ever! be back later after work

[Eevee]

Heya, Eevee be second. The crowd of players looks super interesting in this game!

[ashersky]

Tagging for now.  Active starting tomorrow a.m. given it is late here.

[shraeye]

/tag; also /in as a sub if needed

[Jimmmmm]

Oh forgot about this. Hi!

[mail-mi]

You forgot?!?! vote: Jimmmmm

[Eevee]

You forgot?!?! vote: Jimmmmm

What do you mean?

[Voltaire]

Hey e'r'body. Fascinating to start a game with two reads already!

vote: Galzria because I haven't played with you in forever.

[chairs]

You're going to vote for Jimmm? But he's such a nice guy!

vote: mail-mi

[mail-mi]

You forgot?!?! vote: Jimmmmm

What do you mean?

Oh forgot about this. Hi!

[Eevee]

Why is that grounds for a vote?

[mail-mi]

Why is that grounds for a vote?

Cuz it's RVS, brah.

[chairs]

Why is that grounds for a vote?

Cuz it's RVS, brah.

The first rule of RVS is that you don't talk about RVS... or something.

uh, revote you I guess?

[UmbrageOfSnow]

At the risk of violating the double-secret rules of RVS or something, I did some math!

Interesting results:
The odds of having 1 scum in each of three houses or 2 scum in one house and 1 in another are equal.
So we know we have 1 scum-free house, and we have a ~51% chance of having 2 scum-free houses.

Odds of a house member being scum are the same as odds of a random player being scum.
The odds of there being scum in your house (if you're  town) are about 50-50.

Code: [Select]

220 possible scum distributions, ignoring roles
4/220 have 3 scum in 1 house 1.8%
108/220 have 2 scum in 1 house and 1 in another 49.1%
108/220 have 1 scum in each of 3 houses 49.1%

So from my point of view, if I'm town, 165 combinations of scum among other players
3/165 are all in one house (can't be mine) 1.8%
27/165 no scum in my house, 1 in every other 16.4%
54/165 1 scum in my house, 1 in two others 32.7%
9/165 2 scum in my house, 1 in one other 5.5%
54/165 no scum in my house, 2 in one other, 1 in one other 32.7%
18/165 1 scum in my house, 2 in one other, 10.9%

That means, if I'm town:
84/165 No Scum In My House 50.9%
72/165 1 Scum In My House 43.6%
9/165 2 Scum In My House 5.5%

Although
Random player is scum 27.27%
Random House Member is scum 27.27%
Let me know if you see anything wrong with this?

[UmbrageOfSnow]

Holy crap,

Code: [Select]

creates scrolling!

Is this a good way to post long chains of reasoning with conclusions at the top?

[chairs]

At the risk of violating the double-secret rules of RVS or something, I did some math!

Interesting results:
The odds of having 1 scum in each of three houses or 2 scum in one house and 1 in another are equal.
So we know we have 1 scum-free house, and we have a ~51% chance of having 2 scum-free houses.

Odds of a house member being scum are the same as odds of a random player being scum.
The odds of there being scum in your house (if you're  town) are about 50-50.

Code: [Select]

220 possible scum distributions, ignoring roles
4/220 have 3 scum in 1 house 1.8%
108/220 have 2 scum in 1 house and 1 in another 49.1%
108/220 have 1 scum in each of 3 houses 49.1%

So from my point of view, if I'm town, 165 combinations of scum among other players
3/165 are all in one house (can't be mine) 1.8%
27/165 no scum in my house, 1 in every other 16.4%
54/165 1 scum in my house, 1 in two others 32.7%
9/165 2 scum in my house, 1 in one other 5.5%
54/165 no scum in my house, 2 in one other, 1 in one other 32.7%
18/165 1 scum in my house, 2 in one other, 10.9%

That means, if I'm town:
84/165 No Scum In My House 50.9%
72/165 1 Scum In My House 43.6%
9/165 2 Scum In My House 5.5%

Although
Random player is scum 27.27%
Random House Member is scum 27.27%
Let me know if you see anything wrong with this?

I tried to do this over the weekend, but I wonder if we're not just overcomplicating it - since we don't care which person it is in the House that's scum, shouldn't the math boil down to something like this?

Code: [Select]

01 GGG
02 HHH
03 RRR
04 SSS
05 GGH
06 GGR
07 GGS
08 GHH
09 GRR
10 GSS
11 GHR
12 GHS
13 GRS
14 HRR
15 HRS
16 RRs

4 / 16 - all 3 one house
8 / 16 - 2 one house, 1 other house
4 / 16 - all 3 separate houses

[chairs]

(FWIW I asked for help in a math forum, and got this reply once I clarified that there were exactly 3 students in each house):

Ah, then things change. For your full universe, you have 12 students, and Choose 3 for G, 3 for H, 3 for R, and 3 for S. So you have a total of (12 Choose 3, 3, 3, 3) for your denominator.

Probability that all are in one house: You have 12 students, and want to choose 3 specific ones. You have 4 Houses, and want to choose 1 specific one.

Probability that two are in one House, and one is in another: Choose a House that has 2, then a House that has 1. You can do this in (4 Permute 2) ways. For the House that has 2 DEs in it, you have (3 Choose 2) choices for the DEs, and then (9 Choose 1) for the other student. In the other House, you have (1 Choose 1) Death Eater, and (8 Choose 2) non-Death eaters.

Probability that all are in different Houses: Two ways you could do this. One is 1 - (sum of answers to the previous questions). The other: You have (4 Choose 3) Houses with Death Eaters. In one House, you have (3 Choose 1) Death Eater and (9 Choose 2) non-DEs. In the next House you have (2 Choose 1) and (7 Choose 2). In the third, you have (1 Choose 1) and (5 Choose 2).

[Robz888]

Not back from v la yet, just tagging thread. Will check In for real hopefully tonight.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

[/derp]

Anyway, I've been thinking about the house mechanic, and I think it's best to avoid a house claim on Day 1, but it might be a good idea on Day 2 or Day 3:

If scum are in 3/4 houses, they know what house everyone is in anyway, and in this instance they have much more information than us.  But if scum are in 2/4 houses, 6 players are unaccounted for.  If they know how those 6 players divide into houses, it might make it easier for them to manipulate the permanent house votes.  For example, say Bob is scum and the other members of Bob's house want to put a vote on his scumbuddy Alice.  If Alice and Eve are both in the same house (in a 2-1-0-0 scum distribution), then Bob would be lynching Alice if the two houses that have no scum both vote Alice.  If he knows that Nkirbit, Jimmmmmm, and Sudgy have been trying to push the Alice lynch all day, maybe he fights back and potentially tips his housemates off to his scuminess.  But if he knows that Nkirbit, Jimmmmmmm, and Sudgy are all in the same house, maybe he doesn't worry about the other house and doesn't give himself away.

I think once we lynch 1 scum, there may be a good deal of positive utility in house-claiming, or once we get a few days in without lynching scum and have to start worrying about what houses scum might control, there could be some positive utility in house-claiming, but I don't think there is any on Day 1, and the longer we put it off, the better.  Up until the point where we risk scum manipulating House Votes against town more severely (as by completely controlling houses.)

[mail-mi]

(FWIW I asked for help in a math forum, and got this reply once I clarified that there were exactly 3 students in each house):

Ah, then things change. For your full universe, you have 12 students, and Choose 3 for G, 3 for H, 3 for R, and 3 for S. So you have a total of (12 Choose 3, 3, 3, 3) for your denominator.

Probability that all are in one house: You have 12 students, and want to choose 3 specific ones. You have 4 Houses, and want to choose 1 specific one.

Probability that two are in one House, and one is in another: Choose a House that has 2, then a House that has 1. You can do this in (4 Permute 2) ways. For the House that has 2 DEs in it, you have (3 Choose 2) choices for the DEs, and then (9 Choose 1) for the other student. In the other House, you have (1 Choose 1) Death Eater, and (8 Choose 2) non-Death eaters.

Probability that all are in different Houses: Two ways you could do this. One is 1 - (sum of answers to the previous questions). The other: You have (4 Choose 3) Houses with Death Eaters. In one House, you have (3 Choose 1) Death Eater and (9 Choose 2) non-DEs. In the next House you have (2 Choose 1) and (7 Choose 2). In the third, you have (1 Choose 1) and (5 Choose 2).

You really shouldn't be talking about this game outside this thread, but I like the maths and it makes sense. Probably harmless, we'll let the mod decide.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

Chairs I'm not sure what you did (in the post with the AAA letters), but if you're coming up with 1/4 chance of all scum being in one house, you're pretty clearly doing something wrong.

[EFHW]

You really shouldn't be talking about this game outside this thread, but I like the maths and it makes sense. Probably harmless, we'll let the mod decide.

The vets can chime in here, but I think consulting re: math is fine.  It's comparable to looking up Shakespeare quotes or watching the Clue movie, I think.