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Author Topic: Updating the Top 5 lists  (Read 75694 times)

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DStu

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Re: Updating the Top 5 lists
« Reply #275 on: January 06, 2012, 05:29:27 pm »
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A good heuristic I think is to ask yourself "if card X had a one-way embargo on it that only affected me and not my opponent, how much would I rage?". Rank them in order of decreasing rage.
+2

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Right, but the interesting thing is how this effect differs card to card. I almost always buy a tactician if it's available, and two any time double-tactician is plausible (and often when it isn't!). But I think even in a six-player game it would be rare to see the Tactician pile emptied. Minion I also buy frequently, but a single Tactician is way better. But if you don't buy any and let your opponent get ten, that's just asking to lose. So how do we compare the cards?  Does the embargo heuristic work? Because a single curse wouldn't stop me from buying a Tactician, but it sure would stop a minion strategy in its tracks. So based on "relative rage" Minion seems stronger, when I think the opposite is true.
I think you should not be so objective while raging comparing how much it actually harms you, just rage about how unfair it is that there is a card you really want to buy where you have to gain a Curse and your opponent does not.
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Elyv

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Re: Updating the Top 5 lists
« Reply #276 on: January 06, 2012, 05:36:25 pm »
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A good heuristic I think is to ask yourself "if card X had a one-way embargo on it that only affected me and not my opponent, how much would I rage?". Rank them in order of decreasing rage.
+2

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Right, but the interesting thing is how this effect differs card to card. I almost always buy a tactician if it's available, and two any time double-tactician is plausible (and often when it isn't!). But I think even in a six-player game it would be rare to see the Tactician pile emptied. Minion I also buy frequently, but a single Tactician is way better. But if you don't buy any and let your opponent get ten, that's just asking to lose. So how do we compare the cards?  Does the embargo heuristic work? Because a single curse wouldn't stop me from buying a Tactician, but it sure would stop a minion strategy in its tracks. So based on "relative rage" Minion seems stronger, when I think the opposite is true.
I think you should not be so objective while raging comparing how much it actually harms you, just rage about how unfair it is that there is a card you really want to buy where you have to gain a Curse and your opponent does not.
If there is a one-way embargo on the chapel, I'm probably not going to be more than somewhat annoyed; I doubt it's much more harmful than drawing the chapel on turn 5. I think tlloyd is right, the one-way embargo doesn't work well for things that you don't want many of.
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chwhite

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Re: Updating the Top 5 lists
« Reply #277 on: January 06, 2012, 05:39:30 pm »
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I don't think "how many of these do you want" is really something that affects my rankings too much.  Sure, you'd rather have one Chapel or one Outpost and you'd rather have as many Minions or Fool's Golds as you can muster, I'd just assume that you'd be buying as many as you need.  The only case where it really makes a difference is to possibly dock the spammable cards a tiny bit on the theory that they're worse in multiplayer if you can't consistently get 5-6 of them.

As for balancing "how often you want this in your deck" versus "how crucial is it when you buy it" I'll agree with everyone that says you should weight them more or less equally.  For the best cards this isn't really so much an issue: the top of every list is going to be full of cards that you want well over 80 percent of the time AND dominate your strategy.  (Possible exception: Ill-Gotten Gains, which isn't worth buying 80 percent of the time but is so dominant when the rush is viable).  The bottom is really where we have these conflicts, between cards that are always mediocre and cards that are sometimes so bad but dominate your strategy in a sliver of games.  Ideally the very worst cards are going to be those that are both rarely worth buying AND not that useful even in favorable situations, but that sort of perfect storm is rare.  I might err slightly on the side of populating the Worst list with niche cards that can sometimes explode, but it's probably important to have a couple slots for cards which might be buyable more often, but never shine.
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tlloyd

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Re: Updating the Top 5 lists
« Reply #278 on: January 06, 2012, 05:49:54 pm »
+1

My point is that we sometimes slip into comparing a Minion deck with other $5 cards, etc. Thus cards that only shine in bunches get an inflated ranking. But I understand that it is hard to maintain the line between ranking cards and ranking strategies.

I will go ahead and put out there, supplemental to the Embargo heuristic, the Black Market heuristic: how mad are you when your opponent pulls the card from BM?
« Last Edit: January 06, 2012, 05:52:32 pm by tlloyd »
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mischiefmaker

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Re: Updating the Top 5 lists
« Reply #279 on: January 06, 2012, 07:21:19 pm »
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(Possible exception: Ill-Gotten Gains, which isn't worth buying 80 percent of the time but is so dominant when the rush is viable). 
Completely off-topic: wait what? In the IGG topic, rrenaud says you can ignore it about 30% of the time and about 30% of the time it is good but not dominant. That seems closer to my experience, unless by "not worth buying" you mean "not worth buying, unless your opponent goes for them, and then maybe you need to buy a few to prevent yourself from getting all 10 curses", in which case 80% seems a little high, but not crazy (probably closer to 70%).

Quick survey of top players reveals no buy rate under 65% and no average number gained under 1.5, which seems to support that interpretation.
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timchen

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Re: Updating the Top 5 lists
« Reply #280 on: January 07, 2012, 03:34:18 am »
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Exact same question I have here.

Except that I cannot even really think of a situation where you'd like to block, and get away with other strategy. I just never see how this work before. And it sounds problematic. The problem is, if you are blocking by buying it and have some other engine going on, you just add another copper into your deck which is barely better than a curse, wasted your $5 buy which can instead be some other engine card, and also make the rush happen quicker. In my experience, in those games there's no such "block"; it's who executes the rush strategy better.

On the other hand, surely one can block by ignoring the IGG completely (or take one or two when he's in a good mood), by having some trasher available. It can't be 70% of the games though.
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Qvist

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Re: Updating the Top 5 lists
« Reply #281 on: January 07, 2012, 07:58:28 am »
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theory, interesting question.

In my opinion there are 3 problems in making these lists. I mentioned them also in my thread.

1.) Cards that are great openers, but less effective later in the game. Chapel, Remake and Trading Post are the main examples. And of course vice versa like Trade Route or City.
How do you rank those?

2.) Victory cards. How do you rank cards that only give VP and do have no effect (with exception of Tunnel and Farmland of course) in the game?

3.) Cards that heavily depend from the board, like Coppersmith, and are either bad or very strong.

The answer for all 3 questions is in my opinion the same: If this card is on the board, how much does this card dominate your decisions in buying? That could also mean: I fear buying X because he could buy Y. For example: X = Mountebank, Y = Trader. Here Trader is a dominating card even if you don't buy it.

But either way, make your list how YOU want as it is your list. Your list inspired me to do compile "my" list to see another side and initiate discussion. Keep it up.

ackack

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Re: Updating the Top 5 lists
« Reply #282 on: January 07, 2012, 01:46:47 pm »
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I think people are misreading the chwhite post. He is not saying 80% of the time IGG is not worth buying; he is saying that IGG is worth buying in less than 80% of games, contrasted with other cards that you do want to buy 80% of the time.
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timchen

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Re: Updating the Top 5 lists
« Reply #283 on: January 07, 2012, 02:56:29 pm »
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hmm, difference between

(isn't worth buying) 80% of the time or isn't (worth buying 80% of the time)

Seriously, which one is the correct way to read in English? I still feel it is the first one...
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ackack

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Re: Updating the Top 5 lists
« Reply #284 on: January 07, 2012, 03:37:45 pm »
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hmm, difference between

(isn't worth buying) 80% of the time or isn't (worth buying 80% of the time)

Seriously, which one is the correct way to read in English? I still feel it is the first one...

It is a pretty ambiguous construction. In this case, my interpretation is based on the context of the rest of the post - immediately before the parenthetical he is discussing cards that he does wish to purchase more than 80% of the time.
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chwhite

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Re: Updating the Top 5 lists
« Reply #285 on: January 07, 2012, 05:15:35 pm »
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I think people are misreading the chwhite post. He is not saying 80% of the time IGG is not worth buying; he is saying that IGG is worth buying in less than 80% of games, contrasted with other cards that you do want to buy 80% of the time.

Yeah, that's what I meant: IGG is not worth buying 80 percent of the time.  But it is so dominating when it is worth buying that perhaps it breaks the rule that "the best cards are those which are both dominating when bought AND worth buying so often". Sorry for not being clear.
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