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Author Topic: Updating the Top 5 lists  (Read 87795 times)

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werothegreat

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Re: Updating the Top 5 lists
« Reply #200 on: December 15, 2011, 11:16:45 am »
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Real-world example: I want to buy a 22" monitor.  I see one on sale for $200.  I don't really know if that's a good deal or not, but I have a gut feeling that it isn't.  I search Google and find 23" monitors that are otherwise identical and on sale for $150.  That is pretty good evidence to me that the 22" for $200 is a bad deal -- even if the 23" monitors are temporarily out of stock.  It could be that the 23" monitor people are insane and wildly underpricing their stuff, but I assume market pressures keep them in line.  (Market pressures in the analogy being Donald X.'s sense of design.)

On the flip side, if I see 23" monitors on sale for $100, that's pretty awesome.  When I then see a 24" monitor for $50, which I instinctively know is an unbelievable deal, that isn't proof that the 23" for $100 a bad deal.


So back to Cellar/Warehouse.  Warehouse is not causing Cellar to be "The Worst", any more than the 23" for $150 "causes" the 22" for $200 to be a bad deal, because 22" for $200 really is just inherently bad even if all the 23" are sold out right now.  But to an uninformed consumer, it's good evidence that Cellar can't be very good, because even when Cellar is a lot better, it's still not overpowered.

This isn't the real world.  :)  There's no going to Best Buy to see if you can get a better deal.  You're stuck with the 10 kingdom cards you have.  So whatever else might be out there isn't relevant.
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werothegreat

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Re: Updating the Top 5 lists
« Reply #201 on: December 15, 2011, 11:17:36 am »
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Well, unless there's Black Market.
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mnavratil

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Re: Updating the Top 5 lists
« Reply #202 on: December 15, 2011, 11:58:15 am »
+1

Saying all cards power is board dependent, although partially true, goes totally counter to the spirit of these lists.

For a new player it is extremely helpful to know which cards to look for and which cards you can safely ignore MOST OF THE TIME. I think these lists in particular helped me to go from novice to intermediate play for this reason.

Once you become better, sure, things get a lot less black-and-white; but who cares at that point? If you are good enough to argue over the intracacies of when a card is good, you are probably good enough to ignore the Best/worst lists.

As I stated before, I like to view these lists as a good way for beginners to avoid some of the pitfalls of cards, as well as capitalize on the power of others.
For instance, before these posts, I thought ambassador was a terrible card.
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theory

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Re: Updating the Top 5 lists
« Reply #203 on: December 15, 2011, 11:59:13 am »
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This isn't the real world.  :)  There's no going to Best Buy to see if you can get a better deal.  You're stuck with the 10 kingdom cards you have.  So whatever else might be out there isn't relevant.
I'm not sure how to explain this to you again.  If you can't wrap your mind around the fact that a Dominion card can simultaneously be very good in some setups and yet very bad overall, then I'm afraid you should probably just stop reading the blog on Fridays for a couple months.
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Fabian

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Re: Updating the Top 5 lists
« Reply #204 on: December 15, 2011, 12:09:20 pm »
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That's kinda harsh theory, seeing as how werothegreat is right.

Does it worry you that, as far as I can tell, no one in this thread agrees with your way of evaluating a card's strength? Speaking of "hints" or indicators, isn't that a hint that your way might just not be good?
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jotheonah

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Re: Updating the Top 5 lists
« Reply #205 on: December 15, 2011, 12:10:18 pm »
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The difference between Warehouse and Cellar itself is illustrative. Both leave you with one less card but hopefully up to 4 better cards. Warehouse lets you make the decision about which card is "better" after the fact, which means you don't have to agonize over playing it. If I have a hand that's  "Cellar, Copper, Silver, Silver, Silver" and there's a good $7 out like King's Court or Bank, and you know you have a few Golds left in your deck but also some Green, you have a lot of decisions to make and then you gamble on whether to keep $7 or go for $8 but risk having $6 or even $4. Warehouse's only advantage is that it avoids those situations. but Warehouse is so much better.

So what that tells us about Cellar is that those situations are really bad. It's really bad to have a card take up space in your hand only to give you a CHANCE at improving the other four. Because even when it comes up and you need it and you play it, it doesn't always help you. Meanwhile when it comes up and you don't need it it might as well be an Estate. And sometimes when you need it it doesn't come up.  Cellar is a band-aid for a situation you never should have been in in the first place, and it's a really swingy ineffectual band-aid. Warehouse doesn't change that and, in fact, suffers from the same problems, but does point out, by contrast, just how bad Cellar is.

Though of course, a well-timed Cellar buy in the right Kingdom is still better than no Cellar.
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DG

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Re: Updating the Top 5 lists
« Reply #206 on: December 15, 2011, 12:20:34 pm »
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Quote
So what that tells us about Cellar is that those situations are really bad. It's really bad to have a card take up space in your hand only to give you a CHANCE at improving the other four
Perhaps you need to be more selective about when you buy your cellars. As soon as you have a card taking up space in your hand with the chance to improve the other eight cards it looks a bargain at cost 2.
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olneyce

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Re: Updating the Top 5 lists
« Reply #207 on: December 15, 2011, 12:24:58 pm »
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That's kinda harsh theory, seeing as how werothegreat is right.

Does it worry you that, as far as I can tell, no one in this thread agrees with your way of evaluating a card's strength? Speaking of "hints" or indicators, isn't that a hint that your way might just not be good?
There are two separate conversations.  Werothegreat keeps intruding on the one about HOW to rate the cards by insisting that the cards shouldn't be rated at all.  Which is just totally unhelpful.  Again, it's not to say that you should be obliged to rank the cards; it's just to say that the willful ignorance about why other people might want to do this is annoying.

On the conversation about Cellar in particular, I think it's clear that theory has agreed about the awkwardness of the original phrasing.  He has ceded quite a bit of ground, and is basically agreeing with the original critique that was made--that Warehouse existing doesn't MAKE Cellar worth less, but just indicates its weakness.  I don't really see why there is still an argument here, actually.
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Fabian

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Re: Updating the Top 5 lists
« Reply #208 on: December 15, 2011, 12:33:36 pm »
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You might be right about the werothegreat thing.

The other thing.. I guess we're reading different threads :)
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werothegreat

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Re: Updating the Top 5 lists
« Reply #209 on: December 15, 2011, 12:36:05 pm »
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That's kinda harsh theory, seeing as how werothegreat is right.

Does it worry you that, as far as I can tell, no one in this thread agrees with your way of evaluating a card's strength? Speaking of "hints" or indicators, isn't that a hint that your way might just not be good?
There are two separate conversations.  Werothegreat keeps intruding on the one about HOW to rate the cards by insisting that the cards shouldn't be rated at all.  Which is just totally unhelpful.  Again, it's not to say that you should be obliged to rank the cards; it's just to say that the willful ignorance about why other people might want to do this is annoying.

On the conversation about Cellar in particular, I think it's clear that theory has agreed about the awkwardness of the original phrasing.  He has ceded quite a bit of ground, and is basically agreeing with the original critique that was made--that Warehouse existing doesn't MAKE Cellar worth less, but just indicates its weakness.  I don't really see why there is still an argument here, actually.

I have nothing against rating cards.  What I take issue with is the methodology.

You want a real-world example?  Here's one:

You go into a pie-shop.  They have cherry pie, apple pie, pumpkin pie, and pecan pie.  By your totally objective system ( ;) ) you know that apple pie is the best pie, and fittingly, it costs more, and so on down the line.  Cherry pie is pretty good, and you like what it adds to your palate, but it's on the cheap side.  But there's another pie-shop 100 miles away that you went to once that had the most amazing cherry pie.  Something with the spices or whatever, and it was a little more expensive.  But while you recognize that that pie was superior to the cherry pie currently facing you, that cherry pie is 100 miles away, so it doesn't matter.  You don't have the money today to get the apple pie, but you do have enough for the cherry pie.    Do you skip over this cherry pie because you know it's "worse" than the one 100 miles away?  Or do you pick up a slice because you're in the mood for cherry pie, even if it might be sub-par?  Pecan pie is the same price, but you hate pecans, so in this instance, you know that cherry pie is the one to go with for your price range.  So do you take the "worse" cherry pie, or do you go without?
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tlloyd

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Re: Updating the Top 5 lists
« Reply #210 on: December 15, 2011, 12:41:18 pm »
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Quote
So what that tells us about Cellar is that those situations are really bad. It's really bad to have a card take up space in your hand only to give you a CHANCE at improving the other four
Perhaps you need to be more selective about when you buy your cellars. As soon as you have a card taking up space in your hand with the chance to improve the other eight cards it looks a bargain at cost 2.

This is right on. Cellar is probably not worth buying if you are using it as you would your opponent's vault (trading two cards for one). But if you've got a decent engine going, Cellar helps in three ways: it makes your engine more resilient to cursing attacks, it mitigates the chance of an unlucky draw that stalls your engine, and it allows you to sustain momentum longer while greening (or put differently, it allows you to green earlier). Cellar can also help cycle your deck, help you find and play key cards more frequently, and help bring key combos together. Warehouse does all of these things, and generally better, so it costs more. But given sufficiently large hand sizes, Cellar can outstrip Warehouse.

In all, Cellar is generally a weak card that can help occasionally when used correctly and isn't too damaging even when you buy it for no clear purpose. Sounds about right for $2. My only objection is to the argument that the existence of a better $3 card somehow changes the ranking of the $2 cards.
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jotheonah

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Re: Updating the Top 5 lists
« Reply #211 on: December 15, 2011, 12:49:49 pm »
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In all, Cellar is generally a weak card that can help occasionally when used correctly and isn't too damaging even when you buy it for no clear purpose.

In general, I'm willing to eat my words here. You all have opened my eyes about buying Cellar as a late-game engine card rather then as a poor man's Chapel. But I'll stick on this point - it's really bad when you buy it willy-nilly. I think that's probably what gives it such a bad rap.
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olneyce

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Re: Updating the Top 5 lists
« Reply #212 on: December 15, 2011, 12:52:19 pm »
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I have nothing against rating cards.  What I take issue with is the methodology.

Your original statement was:
"Given that it seems most people in this forum go by the random selection method of choosing cards, why are these "best to worst" lists so prevalent?  You're only dealing with 10 cards at a time, and usually you don't have a say in what those 10 are.  So the whole process seems silly."

If all you're NOW saying is that Cellar should be judged according to all the boards it could potentially be on, rather than against Warehouse, then fine.  I have no problem with that.  I personally have it right in the middle of the $2 cards for all the reasons discussed here.

But YOU were the one who brought up this 'there are only the 10 cards on the board' thing as if it were a reason to not rank cards at all.
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werothegreat

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Re: Updating the Top 5 lists
« Reply #213 on: December 15, 2011, 01:09:26 pm »
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I have nothing against rating cards.  What I take issue with is the methodology.

Your original statement was:
"Given that it seems most people in this forum go by the random selection method of choosing cards, why are these "best to worst" lists so prevalent?  You're only dealing with 10 cards at a time, and usually you don't have a say in what those 10 are.  So the whole process seems silly."

If all you're NOW saying is that Cellar should be judged according to all the boards it could potentially be on, rather than against Warehouse, then fine.  I have no problem with that.  I personally have it right in the middle of the $2 cards for all the reasons discussed here.

But YOU were the one who brought up this 'there are only the 10 cards on the board' thing as if it were a reason to not rank cards at all.

Touche.  I still agree with what I first said, but I also agree with what I'm saying now.  If that makes any sense.
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theory

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Re: Updating the Top 5 lists
« Reply #214 on: December 15, 2011, 01:33:02 pm »
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I think the best lesson to be drawn from all of this is that I should rephrase how I wrote up Cellar, namely, why it's bad on its own, and refer to Warehouse only as supportive evidence that Cellar is a poor card.

Does this wording satisfy everyone?

Quote
Cellar is a card to buy only if its superior alternatives (Warehouse, Crossroads, Vault) are not available.  The fact that you discard before drawing makes it considerably worse than Warehouse, and giving up a potential Silver for a chance at redrawing up to 4 other cards in your hand is just not worth it.  It's nice in very big draw decks, because it keeps your engine flowing, but it implicitly depends on bad cards in your hand (and not just in your deck) in order to truly succeed.  Against hand-discard attacks in particular, it completely collapses and leaves you with unpalatable options all around.

Nevertheless, unlike the cards above it, Cellar still sees quite a bit of use in 2-player games.  You'll wish it was a Warehouse instead, but in big draw decks, and towards the end of the game, you'll grudgingly take the Cellar nevertheless.
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tlloyd

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Re: Updating the Top 5 lists
« Reply #215 on: December 15, 2011, 01:45:03 pm »
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I think the best lesson to be drawn from all of this is that I should rephrase how I wrote up Cellar, namely, why it's bad on its own, and refer to Warehouse only as supportive evidence that Cellar is a poor card.

Does this wording satisfy everyone?

Quote
Cellar is a card to buy only if its superior alternatives (Warehouse, Crossroads, Vault) are not available.  The fact that you discard before drawing makes it considerably worse than Warehouse, and giving up a potential Silver for a chance at redrawing up to 4 other cards in your hand is just not worth it.  It's nice in very big draw decks, because it keeps your engine flowing, but it implicitly depends on bad cards in your hand (and not just in your deck) in order to truly succeed.  Against hand-discard attacks in particular, it completely collapses and leaves you with unpalatable options all around.

Nevertheless, unlike the cards above it, Cellar still sees quite a bit of use in 2-player games.  You'll wish it was a Warehouse instead, but in big draw decks, and towards the end of the game, you'll grudgingly take the Cellar nevertheless.

I agree with all of this. Cellar is stronger than Crossroads against Curses, but is still inferior on average.
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werothegreat

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Re: Updating the Top 5 lists
« Reply #216 on: December 15, 2011, 01:52:33 pm »
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I think the best lesson to be drawn from all of this is that I should rephrase how I wrote up Cellar, namely, why it's bad on its own, and refer to Warehouse only as supportive evidence that Cellar is a poor card.

Does this wording satisfy everyone?

Quote
Cellar is a card to buy only if its superior alternatives (Warehouse, Crossroads, Vault) are not available.  The fact that you discard before drawing makes it considerably worse than Warehouse, and giving up a potential Silver for a chance at redrawing up to 4 other cards in your hand is just not worth it.  It's nice in very big draw decks, because it keeps your engine flowing, but it implicitly depends on bad cards in your hand (and not just in your deck) in order to truly succeed.  Against hand-discard attacks in particular, it completely collapses and leaves you with unpalatable options all around.

Nevertheless, unlike the cards above it, Cellar still sees quite a bit of use in 2-player games.  You'll wish it was a Warehouse instead, but in big draw decks, and towards the end of the game, you'll grudgingly take the Cellar nevertheless.

Very much.  :)
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Re: Updating the Top 5 lists
« Reply #217 on: December 15, 2011, 02:01:36 pm »
+1


Maybe a counter-example will help illustrate: assume Minion is better than Lab. Now Horse Traders comes out. Horse Traders actually changes the value of Minion in absolute terms. Even though we won't often have Minion and Horse Trader in the same kingdom, it at least makes sense that the existence of cards like Horse Traders would change our valuation of Minion, not relative only to Horse Traders but relative to everything. It is thus a plausible argument that the creation of Horse Traders (a $4 card) could change the ranking of Minion and Lab ($5 cards) relative to each other.


I randomly thought this post was very instructive.
Here tlloyd notes that "Horse Traders actually changes the value of Minion in absolute terms."  It does so because, when Horse Traders is on the board, Minion becomes weaker, where weaker means that it's a worse buy.

If this is in fact true, then the existence of Warehouse does decrease the value of cellar in absolute terms.  This is because in just as frequent a situation (i.e. where Warehouse and Cellar are both available) Cellar is a weaker card.  It's weaker because in those situations Warehouse is also available.  Thus the very existence of Warehouse actually does decrease the absolute value of Cellar, the same way the existence of Hunting Party actually does decrease the absolute value of Lab.  I'll also note that the hypothetical diamond card would decrease the value of Gold...it wouldn't make Gold a bad card, because Gold is a very good card.  It would just make it slightly worse, which would still be very good.

This happens because we play with cards in sets of 10, therefore every time new cards are created, it changes the value of other cards.  How many times have people noted that Hinterlands has "made several previously underpowered cards stronger"?  This happens because the situations in which those cards are useful have become more (or less) frequent.

So, Warehouse did make Cellar a worse card, because we are considering all possible boards and some of those boards do have Cellar and Warehouse.  If Seaside did not have Warehouse, then there would be more situations where Cellar would be useful.

Anyways, I'm just trying to say, that Theory's old wording was fine.  His new wording I think is better, because it's broader, but to argue that Warehouse had no impact on the absolute value of Cellar is just silly, maybe a small impact, but it did have an impact.

All of this happens because the only meaningful way to rank cards in Dominion is to rank them across all possible layouts. 

While there's no formula or anything going on, it's just based on experience and feelings.  based on the paragraphs, and various explanations given by others there seem to be a couple factors which go into ranking the cards.
1. How often do I want to purchase the card (this is equal to how often is the card worth the opportunity cost to purchase which is very similar to how often will this card help my deck)
2. How much help does it give me when I get it

The second piece above is easy to understand, and I think most people agree.

The first piece above seems to generate lots of misunderstanding...people saying for instance "you can't judge a card based on how bad it would be in your deck...you shouldn't be purchasing it in that case".  Well, how do I determine if I should purchase a card?  If it would actively harm my deck, then I shouldn't buy it.  That means that it isn't a good card (of course when I say "me" I mean someone who's very good at the game, who could make these judgments)
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mischiefmaker

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Re: Updating the Top 5 lists
« Reply #218 on: December 15, 2011, 02:11:32 pm »
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theory, is it worth mentioning rinkworks' excellent Crossroads analysis as a point in favor of why Cellar is weak? That is, Cellar's value implicitly depends on drawing it with bad cards in your hand, as your new writeup mentions. But the more likely you are to draw it with bad cards in hand, the more likely you are to have bad cards in your deck, which you then draw.


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Re: Updating the Top 5 lists
« Reply #219 on: December 15, 2011, 02:30:30 pm »
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^I don't think the arguments about crossroads hold for cellar. Crossroads requires you to have victory cards, which have to be useless. Cellar doesn't really rely on you having "bad" cards in your deck. It's really at its best when you're not using it to chuck bad cards, but to get cards that are more useful in your current hand. For example, if you're going for some variety of village/smithy, but draw a hand of [cellar, smithy, smithy, smithy, copper], you'll gladly discard a couple smithies to try to find a village so you can get your chain going.
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werothegreat

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Re: Updating the Top 5 lists
« Reply #220 on: December 15, 2011, 03:01:43 pm »
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^I don't think the arguments about crossroads hold for cellar. Crossroads requires you to have victory cards, which have to be useless. Cellar doesn't really rely on you having "bad" cards in your deck. It's really at its best when you're not using it to chuck bad cards, but to get cards that are more useful in your current hand. For example, if you're going for some variety of village/smithy, but draw a hand of [cellar, smithy, smithy, smithy, copper], you'll gladly discard a couple smithies to try to find a village so you can get your chain going.

Right.  If I have a Moat, an Estate, a Cellar, and two Silvers in my hand, I'm glad I had the Moat to protect against Attacks, but when it comes to my turn, I'm going to cellar the Moat and the Estate, rather than playing the Moat and risk drawing Actions dead.  If that were a Crossroads, it would be different - it might in fact even be better - I'd draw a card because of my Estate, then play the Moat, and still have two Actions.  But if that Estate is a Curse, you'd be mighty glad you have a Cellar.

I'm really liking this discussion.
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Re: Updating the Top 5 lists
« Reply #221 on: December 15, 2011, 03:05:09 pm »
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Another thing I find interesting is that for the trashers, Chapel (restricted to four cards) is $2, whereas Forge (unrestricted) is $7, although it does give you another card in return.  Whereas Warehouse (restricted to three cards) is $1 more than Cellar (unrestricted).  Also interesting - Scheme is to Herbalist as Apprentice is to Salvager - the Cards/Actions cards are $1 more than their Money/Buy analogues.
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tlloyd

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Re: Updating the Top 5 lists
« Reply #222 on: December 15, 2011, 03:20:22 pm »
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Maybe a counter-example will help illustrate: assume Minion is better than Lab. Now Horse Traders comes out. Horse Traders actually changes the value of Minion in absolute terms. Even though we won't often have Minion and Horse Trader in the same kingdom, it at least makes sense that the existence of cards like Horse Traders would change our valuation of Minion, not relative only to Horse Traders but relative to everything. It is thus a plausible argument that the creation of Horse Traders (a $4 card) could change the ranking of Minion and Lab ($5 cards) relative to each other.


I randomly thought this post was very instructive.
Here tlloyd notes that "Horse Traders actually changes the value of Minion in absolute terms."  It does so because, when Horse Traders is on the board, Minion becomes weaker, where weaker means that it's a worse buy.

If this is in fact true, then the existence of Warehouse does decrease the value of cellar in absolute terms.  This is because in just as frequent a situation (i.e. where Warehouse and Cellar are both available) Cellar is a weaker card.  It's weaker because in those situations Warehouse is also available.  Thus the very existence of Warehouse actually does decrease the absolute value of Cellar, the same way the existence of Hunting Party actually does decrease the absolute value of Lab.  I'll also note that the hypothetical diamond card would decrease the value of Gold...it wouldn't make Gold a bad card, because Gold is a very good card.  It would just make it slightly worse, which would still be very good.

This happens because we play with cards in sets of 10, therefore every time new cards are created, it changes the value of other cards.  How many times have people noted that Hinterlands has "made several previously underpowered cards stronger"?  This happens because the situations in which those cards are useful have become more (or less) frequent.

So, Warehouse did make Cellar a worse card, because we are considering all possible boards and some of those boards do have Cellar and Warehouse.  If Seaside did not have Warehouse, then there would be more situations where Cellar would be useful.

Anyways, I'm just trying to say, that Theory's old wording was fine.  His new wording I think is better, because it's broader, but to argue that Warehouse had no impact on the absolute value of Cellar is just silly, maybe a small impact, but it did have an impact.

Man, just when I think this silly debate is over...

To be blunt, you're wrong. And while I'm glad you read my post, I don't think you understood it. Cellar does what it does whether Warehouse is in the game or not. You may prefer Warehouse, but that speaks to relative, not absolute, value. Minion and Horse Traders are different. The value of Minion is partly based on the ability to leave your opponent with a hand of four random cards (in contrast to Militia which leaves them with three above-average cards.) But if your opponent is holding a HT, playing Minion will instead leave him with a hand of six cards. Thus, the presence of HT changes what effect Minion has. There is nothing comparable about Warehouse/Cellar.
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Re: Updating the Top 5 lists
« Reply #223 on: December 15, 2011, 03:39:18 pm »
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Man, just when I think this silly debate is over...

To be blunt, you're wrong. And while I'm glad you read my post, I don't think you understood it. Cellar does what it does whether Warehouse is in the game or not. You may prefer Warehouse, but that speaks to relative, not absolute, value. Minion and Horse Traders are different. The value of Minion is partly based on the ability to leave your opponent with a hand of four random cards (in contrast to Militia which leaves them with three above-average cards.) But if your opponent is holding a HT, playing Minion will instead leave him with a hand of six cards. Thus, the presence of HT changes what effect Minion has. There is nothing comparable about Warehouse/Cellar.

Right.  The existence of Platinum makes Noble Brigand weaker, but the existence of Thief doesn't make it stronger or weaker.
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Re: Updating the Top 5 lists
« Reply #224 on: December 15, 2011, 03:45:16 pm »
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How is that different?  Let's say you had Chapel, and then you had BadChapel, which only trashed up to 3.  BadChapel is probably still a super-strong $2, but when Chapel is later released, BadChapel obviously loses some absolute value because it becomes a weaker card when Chapel is also in the game.

Much like Minion becomes weaker when HT is out, BadChapel is weaker when Chapel is out.  It still does the same thing, but you will lose if you buy it and your opponent buys Chapel.

In other words, there's no such thing as "absolute" value, because the point of Dominion is to build the fastest and best possible deck.  There's an aggregate "absolute" value, but that's an average of many individual "relative" values.  BadChapel has a worse aggregate "absolute" value because its average drops every time it and Chapel are both on the board.
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