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[UmbrageOfSnow]

Rather, I didn't think there were 8 players, the 7-2-3=2 process of elimination didn't occur to me.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

Should I be building a case on Jimmmm like that?

It occurred to me, but it also occurred to me that anything I say is kind of meaningless, and possibly makes good evidence look worse or directs your attention away from something that's more important so I thought I should keep my mouth shut, but I can start building a case if that has any meaning.  Should I?

Also, why does me thinking a lot about the game make me infallible?  I was pretty convinced Liopoil was scum, clearly I make mistakes.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

Rather, I didn't think there were 8 players, the 7-2-3=2 process of elimination didn't occur to me.

To further clarify, when I said "I thought there was one more player" I meant that I thought there were probably 3 players unaccounted for as town so I had to try to find the scumteam out of two of them.

I logged on basically immediately upon waking up this morning.

[Twistedarcher]

I removed a paragraph from snows most recent post that mentioned another game.

Please do not mention ongoing games, even in generalities. When in doubt, don't do it, or ask for my permission first.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

Sorry.

I didn't think that was anything more than saying a game existed.  Didn't mean to break a rule.

[ashersky]

I'm here, too.  I will lay out some info and vote.  Give me 20 minutes or so.

[ashersky]

So, here's what I've got:

Pro/Con UoS:

--I had a towny read on UoS to begin with (Pro)
--claimed Cop first (Con)
--delayed claiming (Con)
--newbie mistake not realizing we'd won already (Pro - go see MX for when I did the same thing)
--checked EFHW (Pro)

Pro/Con Jimmmmm:

--I had decided last night that Jimmmm/nkirbit was the scumteam (Con)
--claimed cop second (Pro - second claimant is almost always the real one)
--suggested we lynch a cop, not nkirbit (Pro)
--started the PM quoting thing (Con)
--checked EFHW (Pro)



I believe nkirbit lost the game for his team though, by his reactions to both claims.  The thought process for scum NOT killing me (which was my plan, btw) was that the Cop was just too dangerous.  I made sure they were thinking about that by posting my big theory post before D1 ended.  Laying out the 50% chance of doom for them was pretty good for that, I think.

If scum had killed the Cop N1, we wouldn't be in this situation.  Now, scum would have planned for this situation right?  They had to think the Cop would claim.  So one was going to fakeclaim, no matter what.

We have to assume nkirbit is toast here.  He didn't counterclaim UoS, and Jimmmmm has since claimed.  We also have to assume that whoever is the partner was selected during the Night to claim, which is why nkirbit didn't counter UoS.  He was either playing into the fake claim, or waiting for Jimmmmm.

So, I think we have to gauge nkirbit's reactions to find the real cop.

When UoS claims, nkirbit votes, fights a bit.
When Jimmmmm claims, nkirbit gives up and says nonsense about EFHW.

Now for some quotes...

[ashersky]

nkirbit's reactions to the two claims:

Vote: UmbrageOfSnow

I am a VT.  UoS is lying.

And

Well, I guess I'm done here.

Vote: EFHW  She's scum!

Bad luck, EFHW and Ashersky!

Good luck, partner!

[ashersky]

Liopoil (4, u4): UmbrageofSnow, Ashersky, EFHW, Jimmmm
EFHW (3, u3): Liopoil, Sudgy, Nkirbit
ashersky (0, u3)
Sudgy (0, u2):
nkirbit (0, u1):
UmbrageofSnow (0, u1):

Wagon analysis.  Unfortunately, it tells me nothing, as I expected scum to be split on wagons, plus everyone voted for one of two people.

[ashersky]

Strongest scum reads at this point are Jimmmmm and EFHW.

Why not UoS?  These aren't serious reads (I hope), but what was your reasoning for leaving him out?

Re-reading for interactions.  This could be worry that I left out a towny, given I listed his partner.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

I know it isn't much, but it might be worth considering that I suggested nkirbit as an alternative lynch when we were debating last minute alternatives.

I'd think that would be risky to say "I'd hammer that" and then not follow through if nkirbit and I were the scum team.

[ashersky]

I guess there's a difference between saying "I claim not Cop" and "I don't claim Cop". If nkirbit is treating these two as the same, then we don't really have a problem, and his non-claim can't be any more or less trusted or suspicious than the claims of EFHW and Snow.

Slight Jimmmmm defense of nkirbit.

[ashersky]

Also, his vote put me at L-2, which is awful dangerous in a 7-player blitz game.  But he didn't note it or take in into consideration.

I don't think it's dangerous.  If scum want to quickhammer you, I'd be ecstatic.  L-1 is the dangerous point, since we have only two scum.

Funny in retrospect, given he's scum.

[ashersky]

We've really had two genuine claims on day 1? That kind of sucks really. Just hoping that scum aren't able to take out our two PRs in two nights.

I'm going out this afternoon/evening and should be back to post some time tonight and then tomorrow morning before deadline. Don't do anything stupid.

This confused me at the time, and still does.  This came after my claim.  What was the second genuine claim?  Was he believing sudgy?

[ashersky]

Having re-read nkirbit, the only thing I really thought was worth mentioning was his interaction with ashersky. From the outset this gives him some scum points since I'm treating ash as confirmed Town. I did find his "I am no cop" a little weird and contrary to the plan, although not as damning as ash did. I do disagree with nkirbit's reaction to ash's reaction to him, that just struck me as regular ash. So slight scumread on nkirbit, half based on the opinion of someone who I believe to be Town, and half for what may have been an overreaction to ash's reaction.

Jimmmmm on nkirbit.

[ashersky]

If we are wrong on lio/sudgy, it is in scum's best interest to lurk their way to the deadline.  So slight FoS on nkirbit/Jimmmmm, given activity and/or previous statements on availability/deadline movement.

See me call the scumteam yeterday.

[ashersky]

what the.... no idea how that happened.

For me, from scummiest down:

liopoil >/= sudgy > nkirbit = Jimmmmm > EFHW > UoS > ashersky

wow, that's almost exactly opposite my list, and we're both town.... that is not good.

Maybe scum is in the middle.

More hindsight hilarity.

[ashersky]

Here's UoS's reads post:

Also, everyone needs to do one of these lists right now, before the day ends.

I prefer to have more time to carefully consider a list like this, but I understand the desire to have some known-town reads from whomever gets night-killed.  So here's my list at the moment.  Ugh, I hate doing these things by gut...

Definitely Scum
No one, how can we be sure on Day 1?

Probably Scum
Liopoil

Scum-ish Null
Jimmmm
Nkirbit

Town-ish Null
EFHW (I'm not even sure if I'm putting her here to annoy Liopoil or not.)
Sudgy (I'm still processing his L-1 derp.  I thought it was scummy, now I'm thinking it's more towny, but scum could screw up too.  You're a tough one to read Sudgy, but in this moment, I'm leaning town.)

Probably Town
No one, I can't trust any of you!

Definitely town
Ashersky
UmbrageofSnow

[ashersky]

nkirbit's:

Scum to Town:

EFHW > Sudgy > Jimm > Lio > UoS > Ashersky > Nkirbit.

EFHW for what I just voted for.  Not a great case, but I think it's the best we have now.

Sudgy, because I still think his actions were anti-town.  True, he acted in a way that's consistent with town, but I think scum can do that as well, to look towny!  He got his claim and looked towny, perfect scum manuveur, or sloppy town?  I don't know.  Plus, I still don't like him calling out me for not unvoting Ash when I was simply sleeping overnight.  I think it's an easy way to get a wagon going on a player without needing a good reason.  Consistent lurking is hurtful and anti-town, but what he accused me was wasn't consistent lurking.. it was lurking for a specific period of time.


Jimm:  Pretty null, slight scum for lurking.  He's been pretty consistently lurking his way through the game

Lio:  While the same anti-town argument applies to him in that he should've been more careful to unvote Ash, I don't think the case against him is good, especially EFHW's case.

UoS:  Generally pro town work.  I disagree with his case on Lio, but don't find him scummy the way I did find EFHW, because the change of tone he picked up on was there.. I just disagree with his conclusion.

Ash:  Claimed doctor with no counter claim.. almost certainly the real doctor.

[ashersky]

And Jimmmmm's:

Leaning scum:
liopoil

Slight scum to null (in rough order):
sudgy
nkirbit
efhw

Leaning Town:
UoS

Town:
ash

[Jimmmmm]

We've really had two genuine claims on day 1? That kind of sucks really. Just hoping that scum aren't able to take out our two PRs in two nights.

I'm going out this afternoon/evening and should be back to post some time tonight and then tomorrow morning before deadline. Don't do anything stupid.

This confused me at the time, and still does.  This came after my claim.  What was the second genuine claim?  Was he believing sudgy?

sudgy's claim seemed more genuine than the others. I was trying to appear to believe him, and hopefully make him seem more likely to actually be the Cop, and me less likely.

[EFHW]

We've really had two genuine claims on day 1? That kind of sucks really. Just hoping that scum aren't able to take out our two PRs in two nights.

I'm going out this afternoon/evening and should be back to post some time tonight and then tomorrow morning before deadline. Don't do anything stupid.

This confused me at the time, and still does.  This came after my claim.  What was the second genuine claim?  Was he believing sudgy?

Since scum killed sudgy, this makes sense if Jimmmmm is scum.  It's also why the WIFOM claiming plan helps even though it seems like it wouldn't.  It's hard to see emphatic claims and not believe them on some level.  There was no reason to believe sudgy, but he was convincing anyway, and took the kill for the real cop.  Of course, scum might have also reasoned that sudgy wouldn't be protected because he was a likely lynch.

[EFHW]

I find I have a very strong bias toward UofS being town and the real cop.  I think that's because Jimmmmm has lurked so much.  It's almost like he started playing with his claim.  Ashersky says that usually the fakeclaim is first, especially with a town result, but in this case claiming wins the game. 

I think Jimmmmm is doing a very good job seeming like the real cop, but my opinion is feeling pretty established.  I'll give it some more time, though.  It's so easy to convince yourself of something and see everything in that light.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

Is the fakeclaim usually first even in non-pressure situations?  I mean, it makes perfect sense for fakeclaims to generally be first, particularly in the instance of "oh crap, I need to divert attention", but is this true in a "Oh, I think I have important information" claim?

Because I don't feel like there was any chance of me being lynched today, going into the day.

[EFHW]

nkirbit's reactions to the two claims:

Vote: UmbrageOfSnow

I am a VT.  UoS is lying.

And

Well, I guess I'm done here.

Vote: EFHW  She's scum!

Bad luck, EFHW and Ashersky!

Good luck, partner!

nkirbit didn't lose the game for his team here because it was already lost (assuming we pick right).  It was POE as soon as Jimmmmm claimed that one of UoS was scum and one was town, leaving nkirbit to be scum (since I was verified as town by one of the two claimed cops). 

BUT "good luck partner" after having said UoS was lying seems to refer to Jimmmmm.  Is that what you mean?  It's a very confusing post.  It's like he's admitting to being scum and not in the very same post, since he accuses me of being scum but acknowledges being "done".