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Author Topic: ZM15: Time for Something Completely Different (Town wins!)  (Read 45229 times)

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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: ZM15: Time for Something Completely Different (Day 2!)
« Reply #400 on: July 24, 2013, 12:17:06 pm »

Jimmmmm and UoS, what were your thoughts leading you to not claim/claim cop at the beginning of the game?

Should we try to answer this at the same time or something?

Maybe we should set a minute at which we both hit "submit" to questions?  We'd need to both agree first, of course, so that would slow things down.  I'm happy to answer individuallly if you want, but it's a thought.

If we don't give 3 word answers and submit within the minute of each other, we shouldn't be able to change much based on what the other says.
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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: ZM15: Time for Something Completely Different (Day 2!)
« Reply #401 on: July 24, 2013, 12:18:28 pm »

Although I guess for this question, we should have very different answers.
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EFHW

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Re: ZM15: Time for Something Completely Different (Day 2!)
« Reply #402 on: July 24, 2013, 12:23:21 pm »

I think you can just answer.
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Jimmmmm

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Re: ZM15: Time for Something Completely Different (Day 2!)
« Reply #403 on: July 24, 2013, 12:26:10 pm »

I don't think it's that big a deal, but I have my answer ready.
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Jimmmmm

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Re: ZM15: Time for Something Completely Different (Day 2!)
« Reply #404 on: July 24, 2013, 12:30:10 pm »

Get in here, Ash!

I think it's like 4 am in Australia right now.

It's 2:30am, and I told myself I wouldn't stay up much past midnight tonight. So I'll be going shortly.
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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: ZM15: Time for Something Completely Different (Day 2!)
« Reply #405 on: July 24, 2013, 12:32:05 pm »

I spent a lot of time thinking about Ash's plan, which was hard because soon after I started reading the thread, EFHW claimed cop.  I started making this big list:
Case A: 3 VTs
Case B: Me + 2 VTs
Case C: 1 Scum + 2 VTs
Case D: Me + 1 Scum + 1 VT
Case E: 2 Scum + 1 VT
Case F: Me + 2 Scum

I decided that scum would want to try to get any real information out of this that they could, so Cases E and F were unlikely, since scum would be prematurely cutting off the number of town that would have to make a statement or not.

I decided that Case A was bad, because if scum came down on the not-cop side of the argument, I'd be caught with only one other townie and two scum.  I also thought Ash might be doctor at this point, based on his plan and how much he seemed to be thinking about what the doctor should do.  I wasn't sure of course, but I was kind of expecting, whether he were doctor or scum, he'd not want to be one of the 3 for his plan.  It might have made him a more likely nk target if scum thought he came up with the thing as a ballsy way to prevent himself being guessed doctor, it would have reduced whatever information he was hoping to gain as scum.

So I thought claiming would make it either Case B or Case D, partly because I thought it would be unlikely for the Doctor to claim Cop, and that way both power roles would be less likely to be in one subset.  I did think Ash was doctor, but I thought if he was scum, doctor wouldn't be likely to claim either.

I also, admittedly, thought it was the more ballsy move, and that scum would probably assume Macho Cop would not take a risk like that, since I'm already not protected by doctors and am extra-vulnerable.
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Jimmmmm

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Re: ZM15: Time for Something Completely Different (Day 2!)
« Reply #406 on: July 24, 2013, 12:34:41 pm »

Jimmmmm and UoS, what were your thoughts leading you to not claim/claim cop at the beginning of the game?

I assume you're talking about ash's plan? Well I had a feeling that at least one scum would want to be one of the three. I think I probably would if I was scum. I also thought that they had a higher chance of killing someone who had claimed Cop than someone who hadn't. I know WIFOM's a big thing here, but I felt like it would be better if someone other than me had the target painted on their back. When sudgy bolded his "I am the Cop, not them" claim, I hoped that if sudgy was Town scum would take that as a semi-genuine claim.
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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: ZM15: Time for Something Completely Different (Day 2!)
« Reply #407 on: July 24, 2013, 12:43:20 pm »

I think Jimmmm and I should prepare to post on why we chose to investigate EFHW.
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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: ZM15: Time for Something Completely Different (Day 2!)
« Reply #408 on: July 24, 2013, 12:43:41 pm »

Also, when are you likely to be back online after you go to sleep, Jimmmm?
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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: ZM15: Time for Something Completely Different (Day 2!)
« Reply #409 on: July 24, 2013, 12:47:40 pm »

I think Jimmmm and I should prepare to post on why we chose to investigate EFHW.

Honestly, I just wrote such a post, but I'm thinking it might provide more helpful information if I hold off on it so Jimmmmm doesn't have time to sheep my reasoning and we each post relatively close together.
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Jimmmmm

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Re: ZM15: Time for Something Completely Different (Day 2!)
« Reply #410 on: July 24, 2013, 12:48:44 pm »

My message to Twisted upon receiving my PM kind of sums up how I felt at the start of the game.

Quote
...

Confirmed. Okay, here we go. Last time I was Cop I was killed night 1 and scum had a flawless victory I think. Just for reference at the end of the game: I bet you I will be the first nightkill, and go to my grave with vital information. That's just how these things seem to go.
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Jimmmmm

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Re: ZM15: Time for Something Completely Different (Day 2!)
« Reply #411 on: July 24, 2013, 12:52:03 pm »

I think Jimmmm and I should prepare to post on why we chose to investigate EFHW.

Because she was looking like the next lynch, so if I survive I either catch scum or save us from at least one particular mislynch at lylo. I could barely imagine scum killing a VT and giving me perfect information.
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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: ZM15: Time for Something Completely Different (Day 2!)
« Reply #412 on: July 24, 2013, 12:52:32 pm »

Are we allowed to copy and paste what we sent to Twistedarcher?  So it's just his messages to us we can't paste?
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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: ZM15: Time for Something Completely Different (Day 2!)
« Reply #413 on: July 24, 2013, 12:53:00 pm »

Pulling the trigger now:

I also should probably say that a large part of my slight town read on EFHW yesterday was that she got the plan started, and in a way that felt goofily carefree, almost like daring scum to think a cop would be so bold as to start things off that way.

Liopoil's demand that the cop investigate EFHW last night was really tough to follow through on, because I was worried they'd kill her for either being cop or because of that.  But I thought if they shot Ash, well it would be good to know if a scum player and gotten onto my townreads, and if she was town, I liked the idea of confirming her as town since I thought she'd get some heat from today.

And because knowing if both wagons were on town (they were) would have a significant impact on how important it was to analyze who voted for who and when.  While if EFHW were scum, it would be good for helping find her partner.

Finally, I thought Ashersky would probably protect EFHW, given what Liopoil said and the liklihood of scum targeting her in case the cop followed his instructions, I know I would have done so if I were Ash.
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Jimmmmm

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Re: ZM15: Time for Something Completely Different (Day 2!)
« Reply #414 on: July 24, 2013, 12:53:25 pm »

Are we allowed to copy and paste what we sent to Twistedarcher?  So it's just his messages to us we can't paste?

Yep, I made the mistake of including the timestamp in DS9, which was a big no no.
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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: ZM15: Time for Something Completely Different (Day 2!)
« Reply #415 on: July 24, 2013, 12:54:48 pm »

Here's what I sent to Twistedarcher last night:
Quote
Ugh.  This is hard.  I kind of want to investigate EFHW, since I suspect people will be calling for her head tomorrow and it makes sense to know, but I also kind of want Jimmmmm.  If Jimmmm is scum, it makes a Jim-EFHW scumteam more likely, if he's town we know nothing, because I really do think Liopoil was acting scummier, so it's not a stretch to think he thought the same thing...

Liopoil's commanding me to investigate EFHW makes this that much harder, but I think the best bet is to just
Investigate: EFHW

Unless they night kill her because Liopoil told the cop to investigate her. Gah!

Okay, well that's my investigation for now, am I allowed to change my mind if I say so before the deadline?
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Jimmmmm

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Re: ZM15: Time for Something Completely Different (Day 2!)
« Reply #416 on: July 24, 2013, 12:56:35 pm »

Here's what I send to Twisted last night:

Quote
Cop: EFHW
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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: ZM15: Time for Something Completely Different (Day 2!)
« Reply #417 on: July 24, 2013, 12:57:51 pm »

Here's what I send to Twisted last night:

Quote
Cop: EFHW

We are clearly men of very different amounts of words!
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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: ZM15: Time for Something Completely Different (Day 2!)
« Reply #418 on: July 24, 2013, 12:58:15 pm »

Here's what I send to Twisted last night:

Quote
Cop: EFHW

We are clearly men of very different amounts of words!

As if that wasn't clear from the postcount.
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Jimmmmm

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Re: ZM15: Time for Something Completely Different (Day 2!)
« Reply #419 on: July 24, 2013, 12:59:05 pm »

Here's what I send to Twisted last night:

Quote
Cop: EFHW

We are clearly men of very different amounts of words!

Well, I was at work at the time.
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Twistedarcher

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Re: ZM15: Time for Something Completely Different (Night 1!)
« Reply #420 on: July 24, 2013, 01:09:17 pm »

Vote Count 2.4



EFHW (1, u1): Nkirbit
Nkirbit (0, u2):
UmbrageofSnow (0, u1):


Not voting (4): Jimmmm, Ashersky, UmbrageofSnow, EFHW

WIth 5 players alive, it takes 3 to lynch.

Deadline is at 10 pm on Thursday, July 25.


Mod will be on a train with no internet access for the next few hours.
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nkirbit

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Re: ZM15: Time for Something Completely Different (Day 2!)
« Reply #421 on: July 24, 2013, 01:10:21 pm »

I think we should end the day now and lynch EFHW!
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Jimmmmm

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Re: ZM15: Time for Something Completely Different (Day 2!)
« Reply #422 on: July 24, 2013, 01:23:56 pm »

Okay, final thoughts for tonight before heading to bed.

Despite all the analysis Umbrage claims to have done about the game, he claims to have had perfect knowledge and not realised it for four of his posts. It seems highly likely that he was using this time to decide whether he was going to make his big play. He was "rereading the thread now, in light of knowing Sudgy and Liopoil were town", also "knowing" EFHW is Town. Who exactly was he reading it for? If he was really looking for potential scum and there were only two possibilities, this would have dawned on him immediately. It sounds much more like an excuse to give himself time to psych himself up for his big claim.

As soon as I got the result on EFHW I knew exactly that my suspects were Umbrage, nkirbit and sudgy, and as soon as I read that sudgy had been killed, I thought, "Holy crap. I've got this."

"That seems like a tactical error" seems like he's annoyed at his teammate for making it a 50/50 between him and the real Cop, instead of claiming Cop himself and making it 33/33/34. (Not sure who the 34 would be, I'm pendatic okay?)

Also, wouldn't scum hold onto this for later in the day, given that if we mislynch we lose, this would make it 50-50 vs. the counterclaiming cop, compared to picking 1 of 5.

Obviously Umbrage wanted to claim early to get extra credit for an early claim, and here he's trying to enforce the idea that the real Cop must be the one who claims first.

Then in #384, #385 and #388 he overplays his supposed sadness/embarrassment/whatever at not seeing a possibility, when he obviously knew some kind of claim would be coming.
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Jimmmmm

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Re: ZM15: Time for Something Completely Different (Day 2!)
« Reply #423 on: July 24, 2013, 01:24:30 pm »

Anyway, I'm going to bed. Hopefully we can sort this out tomorrow morning. I have work again in the afternoon.
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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: ZM15: Time for Something Completely Different (Day 2!)
« Reply #424 on: July 24, 2013, 01:38:04 pm »

It didn't occur to me immediately, sorry.  I thought there was one more player in the game.  I started rereading, trying to figure out who scum would be, in light of Sudgy, Liopoil, Me, Ash and EFHW being town, it took me a page or two to realize that only two people remained.  I'm sorry I didn't count sooner.

And yes, it then did take me a minute to psych myself up with the claim, I'd solved the game, I thought I had it, I waned to be sure that if there was a counterclaim, I was the one more likely to be believed over nkirbit or Jimmmm.

I thought that one of them would claim VT, and that would sway EFHW.  I admit to not thinking this all the way through.  I should have.

I don't see how this benefits scum at all.

It also seems like the interaction with nkirbit would have require a lot more coordination if it was him and me than if it was Jim and him.  And what would it have gained scum?

Let's keep in mind that this is my 2nd online game (and the other isn't complete, so I can't talk about it).   In real life werewolf, which I've played a couple times, people can usually read my sincerity versus the scum panic, at least with the people I played with. (Admittedly this situation never came up, but I don't think it would be nearly so hard there.)

I didn't think things through, but which is more likely, some elaborate, well-choreographed scum gambit that seems to gain nothing, or rookie mistake?

« Last Edit: July 24, 2013, 01:42:41 pm by Twistedarcher »
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