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Author Topic: ZM15: Time for Something Completely Different (Town wins!)  (Read 45191 times)

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Twistedarcher

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Re: ZM15: Time for Something Completely Different (Day 1!)
« Reply #200 on: July 23, 2013, 01:17:53 pm »

Vote Count 1.5

ashersky (1, u3): nkirbit
nkirbit (1, u1): ashersky
Liopoil (1, u1): UmbrageofSnow
EFHW (1, u1): Liopoil
UmbrageofSnow (0, u1):

Not voting (3): Jimmmm, EFHW, sudgy

With 7 players alive, it takes 4 to lynch
Deadline is 10 pm forum time on Tuesday, July 23rd

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liopoil

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Re: ZM15: Time for Something Completely Different (Day 1!)
« Reply #201 on: July 23, 2013, 01:25:33 pm »

guys, as of now, ashersky is still getting lynched...
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sudgy

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Re: ZM15: Time for Something Completely Different (Day 1!)
« Reply #202 on: July 23, 2013, 01:56:11 pm »

Nkirbit, I will vote for you if you don't unvote soon.

Also, lio, how many times have both of us been suspected on D1?  Three times now?  I can't remember...

EFHW, why do you say not going for the plan was bad when I showed that it wasn't a good idea?
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   Quote from: sudgy on June 31, 2011, 11:47:46 pm

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Re: ZM15: Time for Something Completely Different (Day 1!)
« Reply #203 on: July 23, 2013, 02:06:20 pm »

FoS: Nkirbit.

He's hidden, but he's online. http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?action=profile;area=summary;u=2143

he was last active 5 minutes ago.
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nkirbit

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Re: ZM15: Time for Something Completely Different (Day 1!)
« Reply #204 on: July 23, 2013, 02:20:49 pm »

Yes, I just got online.

Unvote

My account was set to be always offline.  Why isn't it set that why now?  How do I change that?
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nkirbit

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Re: ZM15: Time for Something Completely Different (Day 1!)
« Reply #205 on: July 23, 2013, 02:22:18 pm »

Nkirbit, I will vote for you if you don't unvote soon.

Also, lio, how many times have both of us been suspected on D1?  Three times now?  I can't remember...

EFHW, why do you say not going for the plan was bad when I showed that it wasn't a good idea?

This is bad.  Threatening to vote people because they're offline is an easy excuse.  I didn't unvote because I wasn't here.
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liopoil

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Re: ZM15: Time for Something Completely Different (Day 1!)
« Reply #206 on: July 23, 2013, 02:30:33 pm »

Yes, I just got online.

Unvote

My account was set to be always offline.  Why isn't it set that why now?  How do I change that?
it is set that way. you appear offline. but if I go to your profile, I can see the last time you were active. at about 1:58 it said you were last active at 1:55, then later when I checked again at 2:05 it said you were last active at 2:00.
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EFHW

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Re: ZM15: Time for Something Completely Different (Day 1!)
« Reply #207 on: July 23, 2013, 02:33:20 pm »

Lio is posting more than his usual self
don't really think this is true... I'm usually on the upper-half of post counts. I was the highest town-aligned poster in mean girls, I think I was the most active while I was alive in bankers+S&N, and didn't exactly lurk through my other 3 completed games either.
Really?  I guess I was thinking about an ongoing game or something.  Still, you are in the town half of my reads anyway, and your unique vote thing was towny to suggest.
Sudgy is gaining scum points for not chiming in/agreeing.
Yay, when I'm not on I get more scum points!  My plan is working perfectly!
but are you on board for my plan?
If it gets close to the deadline, we could change our votes to change the uniqueness of them.  I don't think it's that important.

Here is where you said you didn't want to do it.  It is before liopoil said he thought it was a bad idea. 

And I completely disagree with both of you about "if it's close, I'll fix it then".  What if the other person is at L-1?  Then you can't balance it without lynching.  Sudgy's argument finds only one scenario in which balancing would be problematic - if we get close to mislynching someone, it will be easier to avoid if they have fewer unique votes than Ash or UoS.  Having unique votes unbalanced b/c of RVS is not a good precaution against mislynching, especially since it does make it more likely that Ash or UoS would be lynched, maybe mislynched. 

I have more to say, but no time right now.  Back later.

Re: Uos tunneling,
that latest post really makes me start to think that umbrage is starting to be trying too hard to find reasons to suspect me, that is, he's pushing a mislynch.

I've been thinking the same thing.  To others that have played with him, does he usually tunnel this hard?

Also, Umbrage, I thought it out, and figured out that voting everybody else now has NEGATIVE impact:

1. If we don't vote everybody else:
     A. We get someone other than Umbrage or Ash in a wagon (but me and lio aren't voting for it), then we lynch him.  Nothing bad happens.
     B. We get someone other than Umbrage or Ash in a wagon (but me and lio aren't voting for it), then we don't want to lynch him.  He has less unique votes now, so it was a good thing we didn't vote them.
     C. We get Umbrage or Ash in a wagon, we don't want to lynch them anymore, then we vote for others to increase their unique vote count.  Nothing bad happens.
2. If we do vote everybody else:
     A. Same situation, nothing bad happens.
     B. Same situation, but now he has more unique votes, then we accidentally lynch him.  This is bad.
     C. Same situation, but we already fixed it earlier.  Nothing bad happens.

So you see, we do NOT want to vote everybody else, there is a possiblity of something bad happening.


Also, random question for TA: If two people are tied for most votes and unique votes, what happens?
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sudgy

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Re: ZM15: Time for Something Completely Different (Day 1!)
« Reply #208 on: July 23, 2013, 02:35:28 pm »

Re: Uos tunneling,
that latest post really makes me start to think that umbrage is starting to be trying too hard to find reasons to suspect me, that is, he's pushing a mislynch.

I've been thinking the same thing.  To others that have played with him, does he usually tunnel this hard?

Also, Umbrage, I thought it out, and figured out that voting everybody else now has NEGATIVE impact:

1. If we don't vote everybody else:
     A. We get someone other than Umbrage or Ash in a wagon (but me and lio aren't voting for it), then we lynch him.  Nothing bad happens.
     B. We get someone other than Umbrage or Ash in a wagon (but me and lio aren't voting for it), then we don't want to lynch him.  He has less unique votes now, so it was a good thing we didn't vote them.
     C. We get Umbrage or Ash in a wagon, we don't want to lynch them anymore, then we vote for others to increase their unique vote count.  Nothing bad happens.
2. If we do vote everybody else:
     A. Same situation, nothing bad happens.
     B. Same situation, but now he has more unique votes, then we accidentally lynch him.  This is bad.
     C. Same situation, but we already fixed it earlier.  Nothing bad happens.

So you see, we do NOT want to vote everybody else, there is a possiblity of something bad happening.


Also, random question for TA: If two people are tied for most votes and unique votes, what happens?

I don't get this...  Could you explain what point you were trying to make with this?
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   Quote from: sudgy on June 31, 2011, 11:47:46 pm

EFHW

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Re: ZM15: Time for Something Completely Different (Day 1!)
« Reply #209 on: July 23, 2013, 02:36:26 pm »

Ok, I have a couple minutes.  The end of my last post is about sudgy's comment re: tunneling.  He says "I've been thinking the same thing.  To others that have played with him, does he usually tunnel this hard?"  Obviously I don't know if sudgy was really thinking that, but to my ear it sounds like fanning flames. 

liopoil coming down so hard and even voting me (when I didn't vote him OR sudgy) makes me think I am on the right track.
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EFHW

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Re: ZM15: Time for Something Completely Different (Day 1!)
« Reply #210 on: July 23, 2013, 02:37:34 pm »

Yes, I just got online.

Unvote

My account was set to be always offline.  Why isn't it set that why now?  How do I change that?
it is set that way. you appear offline. but if I go to your profile, I can see the last time you were active. at about 1:58 it said you were last active at 1:55, then later when I checked again at 2:05 it said you were last active at 2:00.

I know that information is available, but I really don't like making cases based on it.
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nkirbit

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Re: ZM15: Time for Something Completely Different (Day 1!)
« Reply #211 on: July 23, 2013, 02:58:28 pm »

Well, I was clearly wrong about Ash trying to build his case as scum to catch people.  My bad.  I still find it weird how my claim of not being a cop is sandwiched in between two claims of people being cop, and mine was taken seriously while the other two weren't.  You shouldn't have taken it seriously.  I may or may not be a cop.

I disagree with Snow's reasons on Lio.  He should have unvoted, but I would guess that it was more carelessness than intent to actually cause something on Ash.  My main suspicion from this goes to Sudgy.  Putting someone to L-1 can cause claims, and did here.  Sure, Ash was quick to claim, but I think it's Sudgy fault for putting him in a position to do so.

I'm also unhappy with his threat to vote me unless I unvoted soon.  I hadn't been online since Ash claimed.  I can't unvote if I'm not online.  Why are you trying to make me seem suspicious for not doing something that I was unable to do?

Vote: Sudgy
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Re: ZM15: Time for Something Completely Different (Day 1!)
« Reply #212 on: July 23, 2013, 03:12:14 pm »

I disagree with Snow's reasons on Lio.  He should have unvoted, but I would guess that it was more carelessness than intent to actually cause something on Ash.  My main suspicion from this goes to Sudgy.  Putting someone to L-1 can cause claims, and did here.  Sure, Ash was quick to claim, but I think it's Sudgy fault for putting him in a position to do so.

I did not realize it was putting ash to L-1, and I am extremely sorry I did it.

Quote
I'm also unhappy with his threat to vote me unless I unvoted soon.  I hadn't been online since Ash claimed.  I can't unvote if I'm not online.  Why are you trying to make me seem suspicious for not doing something that I was unable to do?

Vote: Sudgy

I had no idea when you were on last.  I was just asking/threatening you to unvote.  I didn't mean to make a big deal out of it.
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   Quote from: sudgy on June 31, 2011, 11:47:46 pm

UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: ZM15: Time for Something Completely Different (Day 1!)
« Reply #213 on: July 23, 2013, 05:34:48 pm »

Afternoon check-in:
1. I'm not clear how focussing on Liopoil for a couple hours this morning constitutes tunnelling, particularly when I also suspect Sudgy (although not as strongly, because I think the L-1 thing might have been too much of a derp for scum to not be aware of).  On the other hand, it forced a claim, so...

2. I believe nkirbit about logging on and not being unable to unvote before then.  He didn't put Ash at L-1 and he didn't RVS vote, so I'm willing to give him benefit of the doubt there.

3. Regarding Sudgy's threat to nkirbit: if nkirbit has himself set to always offline, it makes sense to threaten him when he isn't online because we can't be sure.  On the other hand, I think an actual vote at that time (rather than like early tonight or something) would have been a bit scummy and Sudgy could have been setting himself up for that.  I look at it as null-leaning-scummy, not a big thing against him, but not a great towny thing either.

4. Sudgy/Liopoil: Sudgy said something about both of you being suspected a lot on Day 1.  Do other players think this is true?  (I don't know, having never played with sudgy and only one on-going game with Liopoil)  If it is, does anyone have any ideas as to why it might be true?

It seems like getting mislynched a lot puts town in a tough place (for reasons that may not be your fault.)  It makes it easier for you to claim that as scum, and it makes it harder for us to be sure if we should not be lynching you as town.  I'm not sure what we can do about that, but my thought is to talk about what behaviors get you mislynched a lot, and I'm curious how you two have played in games when you are scum.  I hate to just ask this without input, but meta-arguments are something that seem important in this situation and to which I'm not really qualified to contribute.

Be back around 8ish, maybe a touch later.  (But definitely well before the deadline!)
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EFHW

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Re: ZM15: Time for Something Completely Different (Day 1!)
« Reply #214 on: July 23, 2013, 05:48:50 pm »

Also, his vote put me at L-2, which is awful dangerous in a 7-player blitz game.  But he didn't note it or take in into consideration.

I don't think it's dangerous.  If scum want to quickhammer you, I'd be ecstatic.  L-1 is the dangerous point, since we have only two scum.
Rereading, I don't get this.  Why does having 2 scum make L-1 more dangerous?  And isn't it always the most dangerous?  Are you saying L-2 isn't dangerous?  With 2 scum, it is.
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Re: ZM15: Time for Something Completely Different (Day 1!)
« Reply #215 on: July 23, 2013, 05:54:43 pm »

Actually, I agree with Jimmmmm.  Vote: ashersky.  Either his plan was made before the game or he did to make himself seem like his town self, and he FoSed people who hadn't posted for a tiny bit.

These aren't reasons to vote someone.  You FOS'd nkirbit for not being on, did you not?  And because he could have made up the plan to seem towny, then therefore he did?  And Jimmmmm didn't vote Ashersky, or even find him scummy, so what is it you agree with?

vote: sudgy
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Re: ZM15: Time for Something Completely Different (Day 1!)
« Reply #216 on: July 23, 2013, 06:00:39 pm »

Afternoon check-in:
4. Sudgy/Liopoil: Sudgy said something about both of you being suspected a lot on Day 1.  Do other players think this is true?  (I don't know, having never played with sudgy and only one on-going game with Liopoil)  If it is, does anyone have any ideas as to why it might be true?

I think it is true lately, actually.  I don't know why - they don't have similar playstyles, so not for the same reasons, I'd guess.  But I don't think we can use that to sway our votes.  I haven't kept track of which of those times they actually were scum, for example
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Re: ZM15: Time for Something Completely Different (Day 1!)
« Reply #217 on: July 23, 2013, 06:12:59 pm »

I've never been mislynched, but more often than not when I am town there is a wagon on me D1. I don't know about sudgy, but I do remember that D1 in samurai and ninjas we both were town, both got wagons on us (and many people seemed confident that we were scumbuddies), but neither got lynched.
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Re: ZM15: Time for Something Completely Different (Day 1!)
« Reply #218 on: July 23, 2013, 06:27:14 pm »

I'm here, and should be around until deadline.
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Re: ZM15: Time for Something Completely Different (Day 1!)
« Reply #219 on: July 23, 2013, 06:27:40 pm »

I'm willing to vote sudgy, but won't put him to L-1 yet.
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ashersky

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Re: ZM15: Time for Something Completely Different (Day 1!)
« Reply #220 on: July 23, 2013, 06:38:19 pm »

Theory post incoming.

Note to fellow town members: you may not want to respond directly to this post.  It will include a number of theory items which could be seen as helping scum with decisions during the night.  Remember that I know this as I write it, and take into consideration what they may think.  I may leave stuff out (if you think I did, maybe don't point it out).  I may add things in that are wrong.  TLDR: I am ensuring there is a ton of WIFOM here.

As town, we've outed the Doctor (me).  No one will counterclaim, as 1) I'm the real doctor, and 2) it's dumb for scum.  Town needs to focus on the fact that there are only two scum, and losing your only partner is very, very bad.

So, what happens?  We'll lynch someone today.  If we lynch town, we go into the night with 4 town and 2 scum.  If we lynch scum, we go into the night with 5 town and 1 scum.

Lynch town: I have a 40% chance of targeting someone protectable (2/5)
Lynch scum: I have a 60% chance of targeting someone protectable (3/5)

That's a huge difference, of course.

Scum will NK someone.  We know this.  The Doctor, a known PR, is the most likely target.  So I probably will die, and it won't matter who I target.  But I am NOT the most dangerous PR.  Here are some chances for the Cop:

Lynch town: Cop has a 50% chance of targeting scum (2/4)  (This is so good in fact, that I would have claimed no matter what today)
Lynch scum: Cop has a 25% chance of targeting scum (1/4)

That is awesome, as liopoil might say.  I'll take lynching scum today over 50% chance of finding scum tonight every time.

What's my point?  My point is, scum has a tough decision to make tonight, which I've laid out for them on a silver platter.  No matter who scum is, they would have arrived at this point themselves, so I don't mind posting it.  I threw out my odd 3-cop plan to add to the cofusino.  The main reason I did this post, though, is to help town scumhunt.

Remember, no matter what, D2 starts with one less town membr.  Having either myself OR the cop alive puts town in a great place, and that is guaranteed.
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Re: ZM15: Time for Something Completely Different (Day 1!)
« Reply #221 on: July 23, 2013, 06:38:59 pm »

FoS: Nkirbit.

He's hidden, but he's online. http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?action=profile;area=summary;u=2143

he was last active 5 minutes ago.

This is not scummy.  It's a known thing people use.  He FoS'ed, didn't vote.  I'm okay with this particular post.
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Re: ZM15: Time for Something Completely Different (Day 1!)
« Reply #222 on: July 23, 2013, 06:40:33 pm »

Afternoon check-in:
4. Sudgy/Liopoil: Sudgy said something about both of you being suspected a lot on Day 1.  Do other players think this is true?  (I don't know, having never played with sudgy and only one on-going game with Liopoil)  If it is, does anyone have any ideas as to why it might be true?

I think it is true lately, actually.  I don't know why - they don't have similar playstyles, so not for the same reasons, I'd guess.  But I don't think we can use that to sway our votes.  I haven't kept track of which of those times they actually were scum, for example

I will agree.  Both liopoil and sudgy are seem as scummy by most.  Sudgy is D1 lynch often, I think.
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Re: ZM15: Time for Something Completely Different (Day 1!)
« Reply #223 on: July 23, 2013, 06:41:25 pm »

I want to point out that I think scum working together in a thread (i.e., protecting each other, given each other town reads, etc.) is MORE likely in this set-up, and in any set-up with only two scum.  This is especially true given this is blitz.

Hence, a sudgy-liopoil team makes sense.
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Re: ZM15: Time for Something Completely Different (Day 1!)
« Reply #224 on: July 23, 2013, 06:42:32 pm »

Having re-read nkirbit, the only thing I really thought was worth mentioning was his interaction with ashersky. From the outset this gives him some scum points since I'm treating ash as confirmed Town. I did find his "I am no cop" a little weird and contrary to the plan, although not as damning as ash did. I do disagree with nkirbit's reaction to ash's reaction to him, that just struck me as regular ash. So slight scumread on nkirbit, half based on the opinion of someone who I believe to be Town, and half for what may have been an overreaction to ash's reaction.

My nkirbit read was the best out of many weak reads, and I was going to be gone, so I wanted to place my vote somewhere.  He's not my top scum read anymore by any means.
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