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Author Topic: ZM15: Time for Something Completely Different (Town wins!)  (Read 12276 times)

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sudgy

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Re: ZM15: Time for Something Completely Different (Day 1!)
« Reply #50 on: July 22, 2013, 08:26:18 pm »

Why make scum WIFOM when we could just not claim at all and make them have no idea whatsoever of who to kill?
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   Quote from: sudgy on June 31, 2011, 11:47:46 pm

liopoil

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Re: ZM15: Time for Something Completely Different (Day 1!)
« Reply #51 on: July 22, 2013, 08:27:43 pm »

I don't really see why the claims mean anything. The people aren't actually saying that they're the cop. scum can just ignore the claims.
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nkirbit

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Re: ZM15: Time for Something Completely Different (Day 1!)
« Reply #52 on: July 22, 2013, 08:28:06 pm »

7 people is not very many. to win, we MUST lynch both scum before mislynching twice, unless our doc stops the kill TWICE. but we've got some PRs to help us!

our cop is super-awesome. they should investigate scum and report back so we can win and stuff.
our doc isn't too powerful. If he manages to block the kill once, all we get is an extra night of investigations after no lynch. If he blocks it twice we get an extra mislynch, which is awesome, but unlikely. Plus he can only save VTs, not the cop.
actually, the main utility of our doc is as a named townie I think. that is, the only way we can mislynch him is if scum fakeclaims.

I think a scum fakeclaim is stupid, since I'd trade the Doc for a scum lynch any day of the week.

In fact, as an alternative to my plan: the Doctor could claim right away.  Scum would have to decide between killing the Doctor N1 or trying to hit the cop out of the other 4.  That helps scum in that they have a 25% chance of hitting the cop, instead of 20%.  But do they risk leaving the Doctor around as an IC?  I mean, all other townies go from 2/6 scum search to a 2/5, which is pretty great.

This is interesting.  The doctor has marginal utility at one save, and great utility at two saves, but is it realistic for him to get two saves?  An IC might be better.  And he's slightly better than an IC.
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ashersky

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Re: ZM15: Time for Something Completely Different (Day 1!)
« Reply #53 on: July 22, 2013, 08:28:33 pm »

I don't really see why the claims mean anything. The people aren't actually saying that they're the cop. scum can just ignore the claims.

But can they?  What if the real cop is amongst the three?  We're also WIFOMingly reducing the number of mistargets for the Doc.
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sudgy

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Re: ZM15: Time for Something Completely Different (Day 1!)
« Reply #54 on: July 22, 2013, 08:29:03 pm »

7 people is not very many. to win, we MUST lynch both scum before mislynching twice, unless our doc stops the kill TWICE. but we've got some PRs to help us!

our cop is super-awesome. they should investigate scum and report back so we can win and stuff.
our doc isn't too powerful. If he manages to block the kill once, all we get is an extra night of investigations after no lynch. If he blocks it twice we get an extra mislynch, which is awesome, but unlikely. Plus he can only save VTs, not the cop.
actually, the main utility of our doc is as a named townie I think. that is, the only way we can mislynch him is if scum fakeclaims.

I think a scum fakeclaim is stupid, since I'd trade the Doc for a scum lynch any day of the week.

In fact, as an alternative to my plan: the Doctor could claim right away.  Scum would have to decide between killing the Doctor N1 or trying to hit the cop out of the other 4.  That helps scum in that they have a 25% chance of hitting the cop, instead of 20%.  But do they risk leaving the Doctor around as an IC?  I mean, all other townies go from 2/6 scum search to a 2/5, which is pretty great.

This is interesting.  The doctor has marginal utility at one save, and great utility at two saves, but is it realistic for him to get two saves?  An IC might be better.  And he's slightly better than an IC.

But scum could fakeclaim...
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   Quote from: sudgy on June 31, 2011, 11:47:46 pm

nkirbit

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Re: ZM15: Time for Something Completely Different (Day 1!)
« Reply #55 on: July 22, 2013, 08:30:16 pm »

doctor shouldn't claim. The doctor is functionally IC because he won't be lynched. by claiming we give scum a better chance of killing the cop.

Oh, this is true.  If the doctor is about to get lynched, claiming doctor is pretty good in that spot.  Either there's no counterclaim, at which point we get our IC, or there is, and we either immediately catch scum or at worse trade the doctor for a scum, which is not a horrible trade (although not as good as it is in a normal game).
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ashersky

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Re: ZM15: Time for Something Completely Different (Day 1!)
« Reply #56 on: July 22, 2013, 08:30:34 pm »

7 people is not very many. to win, we MUST lynch both scum before mislynching twice, unless our doc stops the kill TWICE. but we've got some PRs to help us!

our cop is super-awesome. they should investigate scum and report back so we can win and stuff.
our doc isn't too powerful. If he manages to block the kill once, all we get is an extra night of investigations after no lynch. If he blocks it twice we get an extra mislynch, which is awesome, but unlikely. Plus he can only save VTs, not the cop.
actually, the main utility of our doc is as a named townie I think. that is, the only way we can mislynch him is if scum fakeclaims.

I think a scum fakeclaim is stupid, since I'd trade the Doc for a scum lynch any day of the week.

In fact, as an alternative to my plan: the Doctor could claim right away.  Scum would have to decide between killing the Doctor N1 or trying to hit the cop out of the other 4.  That helps scum in that they have a 25% chance of hitting the cop, instead of 20%.  But do they risk leaving the Doctor around as an IC?  I mean, all other townies go from 2/6 scum search to a 2/5, which is pretty great.

This is interesting.  The doctor has marginal utility at one save, and great utility at two saves, but is it realistic for him to get two saves?  An IC might be better.  And he's slightly better than an IC.

But scum could fakeclaim...

And the real doc counterclaims, we lynch one, then the other.  The trade is worth it.
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Re: ZM15: Time for Something Completely Different (Day 1!)
« Reply #57 on: July 22, 2013, 08:31:33 pm »

doctor shouldn't claim. The doctor is functionally IC because he won't be lynched. by claiming we give scum a better chance of killing the cop.

Oh, this is true.  If the doctor is about to get lynched, claiming doctor is pretty good in that spot.  Either there's no counterclaim, at which point we get our IC, or there is, and we either immediately catch scum or at worse trade the doctor for a scum, which is not a horrible trade (although not as good as it is in a normal game).

The issue with this is, the game is blitz.  If we waste the day getting the Doctor close to lynching, then the claim, then the backtrack...who do we lynch next?

And depending on unique votes, we could lynch the doctor anyway, without wanting to.
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Re: ZM15: Time for Something Completely Different (Day 1!)
« Reply #58 on: July 22, 2013, 08:33:34 pm »

Vote Count 1.2

UmbrageofSnow (1, u1): Sudgy
Ashersky (1, u1): Liopoil

Not voting (5): Jimmmm, EFHW, Nkirbit, UmbrageofSnow, Ashersky

With 7 players alive, it takes 4 to lynch
Deadline is 10 pm forum time on Tuesday, July 23rd.
« Last Edit: July 22, 2013, 11:19:47 pm by Twistedarcher »
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liopoil

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Re: ZM15: Time for Something Completely Different (Day 1!)
« Reply #59 on: July 22, 2013, 08:34:30 pm »

because of the blitz setting, we should:

-get someone close to a lynch well before the deadline.
-have the doctor claim before there's an intent to hammer.

it only takes 4 to lynch, so I think claiming doctor/not doctor at L-1 is good, then only claiming cop/VT once it's clear that the lynch WILL go through otherwise.
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liopoil

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Re: ZM15: Time for Something Completely Different (Day 1!)
« Reply #60 on: July 22, 2013, 08:36:06 pm »

Vote Count 1.2

UmbrageofSnow (1, u1): Sudgy
Ashersky (1, u1): Liopoil

Not voting (5): Jimmmm, EFHW, Nkirbit, UmbrageofSnow, Ashersky

With 7 players alive, it takes 4 to lynch
Deadline is 8 pm forum time on Tuesday, July 23rd.

hmmm. I have a plan:

what if sudgy and I both vote for every single player except ourself, to balance the unique votes on ash and umbrage that shouldn't really be there?
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nkirbit

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Re: ZM15: Time for Something Completely Different (Day 1!)
« Reply #61 on: July 22, 2013, 08:37:23 pm »

because of the blitz setting, we should:

-get someone close to a lynch well before the deadline.
-have the doctor claim before there's an intent to hammer.

it only takes 4 to lynch, so I think claiming doctor/not doctor at L-1 is good, then only claiming cop/VT once it's clear that the lynch WILL go through otherwise.

I dislike having set procedures for how to claim when under pressure, since it makes it easier for scum to fakeclaim.  We should try and use the timing of the claim to help us find out whether it's a true claim or not.
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ashersky

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Re: ZM15: Time for Something Completely Different (Day 1!)
« Reply #62 on: July 22, 2013, 08:38:12 pm »

Vote Count 1.2

UmbrageofSnow (1, u1): Sudgy
Ashersky (1, u1): Liopoil

Not voting (5): Jimmmm, EFHW, Nkirbit, UmbrageofSnow, Ashersky

With 7 players alive, it takes 4 to lynch
Deadline is 8 pm forum time on Tuesday, July 23rd.

hmmm. I have a plan:

what if sudgy and I both vote for every single player except ourself, to balance the unique votes on ash and umbrage that shouldn't really be there?

With an unvote at the end?  That removes both of your powers for unique vote manipulation.  Towny suggestion, I think.



Strongest scum reads at this point are Jimmmmm and EFHW.
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liopoil

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Re: ZM15: Time for Something Completely Different (Day 1!)
« Reply #63 on: July 22, 2013, 08:38:41 pm »

because of the blitz setting, we should:

-get someone close to a lynch well before the deadline.
-have the doctor claim before there's an intent to hammer.

it only takes 4 to lynch, so I think claiming doctor/not doctor at L-1 is good, then only claiming cop/VT once it's clear that the lynch WILL go through otherwise.

I dislike having set procedures for how to claim when under pressure, since it makes it easier for scum to fakeclaim.  We should try and use the timing of the claim to help us find out whether it's a true claim or not.
okay, that's fair. But in general - the doc should claim at a time that gives us enough time to find a decent alternative.
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ashersky

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Re: ZM15: Time for Something Completely Different (Day 1!)
« Reply #64 on: July 22, 2013, 08:40:07 pm »

because of the blitz setting, we should:

-get someone close to a lynch well before the deadline.
-have the doctor claim before there's an intent to hammer.

it only takes 4 to lynch, so I think claiming doctor/not doctor at L-1 is good, then only claiming cop/VT once it's clear that the lynch WILL go through otherwise.

I dislike having set procedures for how to claim when under pressure, since it makes it easier for scum to fakeclaim.  We should try and use the timing of the claim to help us find out whether it's a true claim or not.

The utility of fake claims in this set-up are predicated on how useful it is for scum to give up a partner in exchange for a PR.

With a 2-man team, losing a partner is bad news bears.  It's only worth it, maaaaybe, to get the Cop, not the Doctor.  I'd be wary of Cop fake claims.

In either case, counterclaims will happen if they fake claim, and we've got one scum dead.  I'm okay with that.  I just think scum is much more likely to claim VT if NOT under duress, and will absolutely fake claim if we're about to lynch them to get info for their partner.
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Re: ZM15: Time for Something Completely Different (Day 1!)
« Reply #65 on: July 22, 2013, 08:51:04 pm »

Post Count!

1. Jimmmm - 0 (1)
2. EFHW - 0 (1)
3. Liopoil - 11 (1)
4. Sudgy - 7 (1)
5. Nkirbit - 6 (1)
6. UmbrageofSnow - 0 (3)
7. Ashersky - 11 (2)
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Re: ZM15: Time for Something Completely Different (Day 1!)
« Reply #66 on: July 22, 2013, 08:52:01 pm »

In parentheses are pre-game posts.

Jimmmm/EFHW/UoS are all hardcore lurking.  No posts yet.

Lio is posting more than his usual self, but townread so far on what he's said.

sudgy/nkirbit look fine so far activity and content-wise.
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nkirbit

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Re: ZM15: Time for Something Completely Different (Day 1!)
« Reply #67 on: July 22, 2013, 08:55:46 pm »

Strongest scum reads at this point are Jimmmmm and EFHW.

Why not UoS?  These aren't serious reads (I hope), but what was your reasoning for leaving him out?
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Re: ZM15: Time for Something Completely Different (Day 1!)
« Reply #68 on: July 22, 2013, 08:57:17 pm »

Lio is posting more than his usual self
don't really think this is true... I'm usually on the upper-half of post counts. I was the highest town-aligned poster in mean girls, I think I was the most active while I was alive in bankers+S&N, and didn't exactly lurk through my other 3 completed games either.
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Re: ZM15: Time for Something Completely Different (Day 1!)
« Reply #69 on: July 22, 2013, 08:57:51 pm »

Strongest scum reads at this point are Jimmmmm and EFHW.

Why not UoS?  These aren't serious reads (I hope), but what was your reasoning for leaving him out?

Missed his existence.  He's in there now.
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Re: ZM15: Time for Something Completely Different (Day 1!)
« Reply #70 on: July 22, 2013, 08:58:36 pm »

Lio is posting more than his usual self
don't really think this is true... I'm usually on the upper-half of post counts. I was the highest town-aligned poster in mean girls, I think I was the most active while I was alive in bankers+S&N, and didn't exactly lurk through my other 3 completed games either.

Really?  I guess I was thinking about an ongoing game or something.  Still, you are in the town half of my reads anyway, and your unique vote thing was towny to suggest.

Sudgy is gaining scum points for not chiming in/agreeing.
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Re: ZM15: Time for Something Completely Different (Day 1!)
« Reply #71 on: July 22, 2013, 08:59:20 pm »

Vote Count 1.2

UmbrageofSnow (1, u1): Sudgy
Ashersky (1, u1): Liopoil

Not voting (5): Jimmmm, EFHW, Nkirbit, UmbrageofSnow, Ashersky

With 7 players alive, it takes 4 to lynch
Deadline is 8 pm forum time on Tuesday, July 23rd.


Also, we are 1 hour past deadline already...who got lynched?
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2015 f.ds Representative, World Forum Mafia Championships
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Town: 47 Games, 24 Wins
Scum: 22 Games, 13 Wins
11x MVP: M30, M83, ZM16, M25, M38, M61, M76, RMM5, RMM41, RMM46, M51

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Re: ZM15: Time for Something Completely Different (Day 1!)
« Reply #72 on: July 22, 2013, 09:01:14 pm »

Sudgy is gaining scum points for not chiming in/agreeing.
well, he's offline right now... unless he's hidden.
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Re: ZM15: Time for Something Completely Different (Day 1!)
« Reply #73 on: July 22, 2013, 09:04:12 pm »

Have you given up on your three cop plan, Ash?
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Re: ZM15: Time for Something Completely Different (Day 1!)
« Reply #74 on: July 22, 2013, 09:09:04 pm »

Have you given up on your three cop plan, Ash?

No.  I think it is still worthwhile.  I mean, as others may have pointed out, at the very worst, it does absolutely nothing.

3 players claiming cop early messed with scum heads more than town reads.
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Games (30): Mafia: 17, 21, 24, 31, 39, 43, 67, 72, 86 || Newbie: 7 || RMM: 6, 7, 10, 20, 22, 26, 32, 45 || Blitz: 4-7, X, 17-19, 22, 24 || BM: 14, 19

2015 f.ds Representative, World Forum Mafia Championships
2013, 2014 Mafia Player of the Year (Tie)

Town: 47 Games, 24 Wins
Scum: 22 Games, 13 Wins
11x MVP: M30, M83, ZM16, M25, M38, M61, M76, RMM5, RMM41, RMM46, M51
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