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Author Topic: The Omniscient Spy  (Read 7073 times)

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JacquesTheBard

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The Omniscient Spy
« on: July 07, 2013, 05:29:32 pm »
+1

Reading through the Lucky Chancellor board, I got an odd idea. The original idea was to add an extra obstacle to the Lucky Chancellor strategy by giving the chancellor an "omniscient spy," guaranteed to always discard the cards you really needed. This complicated the original challenge too much to be really enjoyable, but the impact it had on the player's ability to build was remarkable. For instance, in the "worst luck scenario" that the Chancellor puzzle ran off of, the spy would easily prevent the player from ever using his chapel, or even his ironworks, by positioning the cards at the 6th and 12th spots in the reshuffles. This becomes increasingly more complicated as the cantrip-control over your draws increases, but still presents an interesting block. Interesting enough to be a challenge in its own right.

Here is the challenge: from turn 3 onward, you are subjected to a perpetual spying effect with a P1 advantage. Assume your deck's structure is such that the spy impairs your success as much as possible (always hits your key cards, anticipates you playing or not-playing draw cards). Given any other 9 cards you wish for the board, what is the fastest turn-time you can get in acquiring all 8 provinces? Assume worst possible shuffle luck.
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Just a Rube

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Re: The Omniscient Spy
« Reply #1 on: July 07, 2013, 05:39:11 pm »
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Are we assuming they just play Spy every turn (so we can use reactions), or just treating it as if we have been Spied upon?
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JacquesTheBard

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Re: The Omniscient Spy
« Reply #2 on: July 07, 2013, 08:29:16 pm »
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You get spied every turn. Reactions are technically possible, but the spy can permanently intercept the reactions before you draw them. A high reaction density is therefore needed to pull off something successful. And once that happens, assuming this spy is intelligent, he'll let the reactions all collide in one hand, leaving you attack-proof but also inhibited.

In the case of secret chamber, that raises an interesting point. Would the spy bother spying if you had the secret chamber in hand? I think both versions should be looked into, but for now, assume the spy always plays itself. 
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SirPeebles

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Re: The Omniscient Spy
« Reply #3 on: July 07, 2013, 08:42:10 pm »
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I don't quite get it.  Does your opponent have nothing in their deck aside from a Spy?
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JacquesTheBard

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Re: The Omniscient Spy
« Reply #4 on: July 07, 2013, 08:50:22 pm »
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Originally, I proposed this as an odd variant on the Lucky Chancellor challenge. The variant was considered arbitary, but during the thought experiments, I was surprised how much it slowed certain strategies down. This is an attempt to see what that spy effect would do in a vacuum. Essentially, you're playing a solitaire game with a spy effect throwing you off every turn. If it helps matters, assume an opponent who opens Chancellor/Spy, keeps getting both in hand, but never buys anything.

The main reason I'm proposing this is to get an understanding for how the omniscient spy effect impairs your attempts to "get the ball rolling" on your deck.
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eHalcyon

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Re: The Omniscient Spy
« Reply #5 on: July 07, 2013, 08:57:02 pm »
+1

I don't quite get it.  Does your opponent have nothing in their deck aside from a Spy?

It's adding Spy to the Lucky Chancellor.  So presumably the bot goes like this:

Open Chancellor/Spy
T3: play Spy, play Chancellor, buy Gold
T4+: Spy, Chancellor, Province

Every Spy discards an important card from your deck.
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JacquesTheBard

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Re: The Omniscient Spy
« Reply #6 on: July 07, 2013, 09:34:27 pm »
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Exactly like that, eHalcyon. Thank you.
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scott_pilgrim

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Re: The Omniscient Spy
« Reply #7 on: July 07, 2013, 11:33:56 pm »
+1

I think this is actually a pretty interesting challenge.  You'll need something pretty creative to be able to get anywhere at all.  A few potential key cards:

Nomad Camp - Early on this might give you a little boost, since it won't get hit by Spy the first time.
Inn - The on-gain effect might help later to make sure that you can actually get several important cards in one turn.  However, that requires hitting $5 near the end of a shuffle, which you might not have control over with worst case shuffle luck...
Scavenger - Helps you get a key card in your next hand.
Scheme - Sets up next turn while dodging Spy.
Pillage? - I'm not sure if this counts; can you discard the Spy, or is it like he has a deck of cantrips that culminates in him drawing Spy every turn?
Minion? - Kind of the same situation; can you discard his Spy?
Native Village - Store away cards for a megaturn.
Golem - Search for your actions even if they're not near the top of your deck.
Watchtower - Get the card you buy into your next hand.  This might be the most important card.  Still, you need a way to get to your Watchtower, so maybe not.

Is it exactly like eHalcyon's explanation, so that I can kill the Spy and/or Chancellor with Minion/Pillage?  (It also matters for things like Tribute/Jester.)
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JacquesTheBard

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Re: The Omniscient Spy
« Reply #8 on: July 07, 2013, 11:47:05 pm »
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For now, let's think of it as eHalcyon's explanation. It's closest to the original spirit of the thing. The big obstacle, as I see it, is getting a large enough number of useful cards in the deck that some will be useful even if the best are discarded. Nomad camp is probably a useful tool, considering the fact that it can easily dodge the spy's strikes. For thought experiment purposes, I plan to identify the course of events that would befall a pure Big Money board.

Assuming the worst possible split would give us 2/5, but this can naturally be improved with Baker in kingdom. It doesn't complicate things excessively, and most of us will use a Baker anyway, so let's grant that the player opens double-silver, spending the coin token in the process. The silvers fall to the 6th slot and 12th slot, and are removed by the spy. Turn 3 is 2 coppers, 3 estates, and turn 4 is all copper. Therefore, pure BM player purchases a single silver. On turn 5, there are 13 cards in the deck. If the spy knocks out silvers on cards 6 and 12, that leaves 1 silver guarenteed in this shuffle. turns 5 and 6 once more mirror the opening splits, and a 4th silver is purchased. Then the reshuffle occurs, with the first silver the BM player actually has in hand. Let's pair this with three coppers and a single estate. At this point, you can see the sort of problems any player would have.

I wonder, though, what impact it would have if the BM player didn't spend the coin token early. That would allow the BM player to score a Gold on any 5-value hand, which might accelerate things. Of course, that Gold would likely see little use given the powers of the spy. Is it an option worth considering for the BM player?
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JacquesTheBard

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Re: The Omniscient Spy
« Reply #9 on: July 07, 2013, 11:49:11 pm »
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And an odd thought: the topdecking ability of Royal Seal bypasses the spy very neatly. If the BM player purchases that on 5 instead of silver, his options open up slightly, and the spy is more limited (he has to specifically eliminate the Royal Seals before targeting silver, which forces his hand slightly).
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scott_pilgrim

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Re: The Omniscient Spy
« Reply #10 on: July 08, 2013, 12:27:45 am »
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Yeah I just noticed Royal Seal too.  Top-decking seems like it's really, really useful for this.  Armory and Develop could both potentially be great.  I think the hardest part is getting it started.  If you can actually get any of the top-deckers into your hand, it probably starts to snowball.

Also, how about Secret Chamber?  That can give you control over what the Spy sees.  I guess it's not really much better than Moat though.

Treasury is probably very good for consistency.  Same for Alchemist.  But you can't get more than five of either of them to stack.

Sage could also be nice, skipping straight to a "good" card.  Wandering Minstrel tries to get to your actions, but it's probably not good enough at it.  Herald's overpay effect is kind of like a more reliable Inn.
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Just a Rube

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Re: The Omniscient Spy
« Reply #11 on: July 08, 2013, 12:31:40 am »
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Stash is also an interesting option; you "know" where he will spy, so you can place them to avoid his spying. I was also thinking of lighthouse; it has the advantage of giving unblockable money this turn and next turn, as well as blocking spies.

Scavenger stash wouldn't be that hard to set up, although you'd have to have redundancy, because the worst shuffle luck means that you will get Scavenger-Scavenger-Stash-Stash-Stash every time.
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eHalcyon

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Re: The Omniscient Spy
« Reply #12 on: July 08, 2013, 02:22:25 am »
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I suspect that it may be impossible.  The Lucky Chancellor alone is already very difficult to beat -- the solution we know involves trashing down quickly and setting up a pin.  With the "Omniscient Spy" thrown in, what can you really do?  All the suggestions so far have one crucial flaw -- there isn't time.  The first important piece you get will only be discarded again and again by the Spy.  It will make it difficult to even pick up the pieces you need.  By the time you have enough to create any sort of consistency against the Spy, the Chancellor will have already won.

A strategy like Scavenger Stash is likely too slow to beat even the Chancellor without the Spy.  What you need is a strategy that can beat the Lucky Chancellor that is still resilient against the Spy.
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JacquesTheBard

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Re: The Omniscient Spy
« Reply #13 on: July 08, 2013, 09:58:10 am »
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eHalcyon, a similar point was brought up when I proposed this on the Lucky chancellor threat. The combination of quick province buy-up from the chancellor and vicious attack from the spy made success almost impossible. The goal of this thread is to break the impossible challenge into two manageable pieces. The chancellor challenge already exists by itself, and demonstrates the clever maneuvers players will have to use if they want to outrace a wickedly fast opponent. This spy-in-a-vacuum challenge, in which the chancellor-spy bot buys nothing, is purely to see how players respond to the spy attacks. If someone stumbles upon a strategy that can win the game against the spy in a reasonable amount of time, then we might make the chancellor-bot buy provinces. But for now, the human player doesn't have to race anyone but himself.
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eHalcyon

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Re: The Omniscient Spy
« Reply #14 on: July 08, 2013, 11:19:36 am »
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Oh, I missed that you changed it so that he buys nothing.
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jomini

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Re: The Omniscient Spy
« Reply #15 on: July 08, 2013, 03:39:54 pm »
+1

I think the best opening might be something like:
Mint/Chap (use baker coin if needed)

If he spies your chap, then on T3/T4 you can buy another Chap.
On T6 you then can force the ability to Chapel a Copper.
T7 is then MintCEEE (presumably) and T8 is CChapChapCsomething.

For here you can chap out something and either buy Pawns (or other cantrip) to eventually splurge on Peddlers, possibly using Stone mason to convert Peddlers into Kc/Good stuff. Or you can buy Squires and Chapel them out (eventually) for attacks (e.g. Pillage can pitch the spy once and you need to buy or Grave rob another pillage).

If you mint 5 starting coppers, then you can just use the coin later on a MintCEEE hand to buy a second chapel and start trashing estates.

Against a very limited guess of what is "worst" (thanks to reshuffle timing), I can clean my deck of everything but Pawns and a Chapel after T10. T11 can purchase Stonemason and Peddler and T12 can get me say Kc/Wt/Ped x3. This should within a turn or two let me explode into something huge (e.g. a Kc/Bridge turn or mass Goons).

I think this will be almost impossible to prove as it is quite possible that letting you chapel earlier will let the spy hit you harder later at a reshuffle.
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JacquesTheBard

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Re: The Omniscient Spy
« Reply #16 on: July 08, 2013, 04:06:08 pm »
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jomini, the idea of opening with mint is fantastic. Immediately, you are down to an 8-card deck, meaning that you reshuffle extra quickly. The spy must take great pains to prevent the chapel from connecting. The rebuild phase is interesting. In all likelihood, the spy will ensure that your coppers collide with your chapel rather than your estates. This means that you must think ahead in terms of what you will be able to buy.

Although long-term, the pawns are more promising economically, I suspect that squire into pillage is where we want to go. Picking off the spy is nice, but if we assume that this is the Chancellor/Spy variation where the opponent doesn't buy anything, we've got a much nastier attack on our hands. Pillaging the Chancellor ruins his ability to spy us on future turns, and he must wait until the reshuffle to get his stamina back. If his deck is sufficiently small, it's relatively weak. Against a "hard mode" scenario, though, where the opponent has been buying green the whole time, this can be devastating.

And of course, two spoils in a trimmed deck are nothing to sneeze at.

And as for chapel empowering the spy, I think it actually hurts it. Some of the Lucky Chancellor threads reached a point where the deck had only 4 non-cantrip cards, meaning that the whole deck could be drawn regardless of the hand's contents. Once that point is reached, the spy is powerless. Oddly enough, as frustrating as the omniscient spy can be when blocking chapel attempts, it becomes abysmal once you've finally chapeled down.
« Last Edit: July 08, 2013, 04:09:57 pm by JacquesTheBard »
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jomini

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Re: The Omniscient Spy
« Reply #17 on: July 08, 2013, 05:05:39 pm »
+1

The point where you can assure Chap/Sqr hitting has got to be pretty close to the point where you have 4 - non-cantrips in deck. My quick analysis says you are looking at T9 or 10 for Sqr collision at this point, hence why I suspect Pwn -> Ped -> Stnmsn is a quicker build out than Pillage. Remember, unless there is something is horridly off by T10 you have just Wt, Chap, Kc, Stnmsn as non-cantrips.

I suspect that optimal strategy for the Spy discarding is to get me to go:
MintEEEC (discard Chap) CCEEE (discard Chap/I buy a second chap) MintCEEE

Now I have ChapChapCC (in some order) on top.

Proving that this is the Spy's best course (and my worst) is going to be extremely hard. The number of non-degenerate cases is in the hundreds (if not the thousands).

From ChapChapCCX I can trash one card and replace it with a useful 2 coin card. However the spy's next move is hard one to define worst. What is worst for me with X? Is it letting it be a Copper so I have to trash it and then wait to hit 2C again or does that let me buy a useful 3 (like say Develop) and just pitch the Chapel [side note: I suspect you may actually want to open Mint/Chap/Develop where you go Mint/Chap on a natural 5/2 and Mint/Dev on a natural 4/3]? Okay let's assume I always need to trash the C, the Spy might still be best served by forcing me to trash my Mint rather than say letting me Stone mason it. Of course if I'm using Stmsn on Mint to bootstrap then I should skip Chap/Chap and just go Chap/Stmsn and pitch coppers ... which then makes the earlier simplified analysis invalid.

Yeah, I use a Mint opening to bootstrap to a game winning condition (e.g. mass Goons) at some point in time with a Spy always hitting. I cannot easily prove that there is no possible course of action for the spy (and my bad draw luck) that says I can't do worse. My guess is that I can line up something like Kc/Kc/Bridge/Bridge/Bridge by T14, but proving that will be very difficult unless there are some simplifications I can't see to prune the tree.
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SCSN

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Re: The Omniscient Spy
« Reply #18 on: July 09, 2013, 04:17:01 pm »
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Spend T1-T10 piledriving Mandarins, buy a Duchy on T11 and spend the rest of your time piledriving Estates and Curses for a 1VP victory :)

Another possible solution is based on jomini's idea, but instead of going for double-Chapel, you go for Lighthouse-Chapel.

Open Mint(M)/Lighthouse(L), and then something like

T3 hand: MCEEE, deck: LC; L gets discarded, you mint a Copper and buy a Copper.
T4 hand: MCEEE, deck: LCCC; L gets discarded, you do nothing.
T5 hand: CCCCE, deck: LMEE; L gets discarded, buy a Chapel(Ch)
T6 hand: MEEEC, deck: [L/Ch]CCC[Ch/L]; [L/Ch] gets discarded, you do nothing

Now on T7 you get either the Lighthouse or the Chapel in hand (possibly both, but that's even better). If it's the Ligthouse, play it and you're guaranteed to get your Chapel in hand during one of your next two turns, because either it's in your T8 5-card hand or in your T8 4-card deck which he can't touch. Once you have the Chapel in hand anywhere between T7-T9, trash 4 cards (3 if you also have the Lighthouse). The worst case is that all those 4 are Coppers. You now have a 6/7 card deck and before long you can play the Chapel again. Trash down until your whole deck is {Lighthouse, Chapel}, then buy a Copper, buy a second Lighthouse (playing one each turn) and start adding Peddlers/Tournaments/KC/Goons/w/e (just not too many terminals). The rest should be easy.
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scott_pilgrim

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Re: The Omniscient Spy
« Reply #19 on: July 10, 2013, 04:48:39 am »
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Spend T1-T10 piledriving Mandarins, buy a Duchy on T11 and spend the rest of your time piledriving Estates and Curses for a 1VP victory :)
Piledriving Mandarins is an interesting thought.  I think you are supposed to get all 8 provinces though (presumably have them all in your deck too, although I don't know if that was stated in the OP).

Here is a rough sketch of a very very slow method I just thought of:
Trash down with some method involving Mint, whatever turns out to be fastest/most efficient.  Get your deck down to 2 Copper, 2 Native Villages, and 1 Mint.  (You might have to NV your other trasher somehow.  Actually now that I think about it that's probably really hard.)
Every turn, play NV1 to set aside a card (which you can't do with no cards in your deck).  Then Mint a Copper, and play NV2 to set it aside.
Do this every turn until Coppers are out.  Then cry because you realize you don't have enough Copper that even if you did get +buy from somewhere it wouldn't be enough for 8 Provinces.

Well, I thought maybe I was onto something, even if it was going to be incredibly slow.  I guess you could add in a Coppersmith.  Still, you'll need +buy from something, I guess you could pick up Hamlets with $2.  Since they are cantrips, they won't get in your way, so you can pick them up even as you're Minting coppers.  I still can't think of a good way to get a Coppersmith into the deck at that point though.  Even with 2 Coppersmiths, you'll need around 20 Coppers (maybe more to discard with hamlet?), so add in about 10 turns of trashing and it would still take about 30 turns total.  Presumably I guess you get the Coppersmith(s) during your trashing stage and somehow control them to the NV mat in the same way you did with your trasher.
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Davio

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Re: The Omniscient Spy
« Reply #20 on: July 10, 2013, 05:36:01 am »
+1

If we can choose the opening, how about opening Chapel/Inn guaranteeing that both Chapel and Inn are in your hand on T3?

You'd draw IChCCC. An Estate gets discarded by Spy, you draw 2 more Coppers discard 2 Coppers and trash 3 Coppers.
Now you'll draw EECC (reshuffle), E, rest of the deck is IChCC.
Do nothing (or buy something like Pawn), draw IChCC (reshuffle), C, rest of the deck is ECEE.
Opponent discards an Estate, but you can still Chapel 1 Estate and 2 Coppers this turn.
You now have 6 cards remaining in your deck: I, Ch, 2E and 2C.
So you'll draw E (reshuffle) and whatever happens, you can clear out the Estates this turn.
If an E is on the bottom, you'll draw it with Inn. If Chapel is on the bottom, same thing. Doesn't matter if Inn is on the bottom. Either way, this turn you can always trash down to I-Ch-C-C and start building.

So it takes you 6 turns to clear out the Estates and get things going. You can even Chapel the Inn if you think it helps. And you can start doing the Tournament into Peddler into whatever thing.
« Last Edit: July 10, 2013, 05:41:01 am by Davio »
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SCSN

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Re: The Omniscient Spy
« Reply #21 on: July 10, 2013, 08:16:13 am »
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Now you'll draw EECC (reshuffle), E, rest of the deck is IChCC.

After which the Spy discards Chapel.

Quote
Do nothing (or buy something like Pawn), draw IChCC (reshuffle), C, rest of the deck is ECEE.

So this won't happen.
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Davio

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Re: The Omniscient Spy
« Reply #22 on: July 10, 2013, 08:37:38 am »
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Hmm, let's recheck, but less verbose this time.

2. +IChCCC (EEECCCC)
3. ^E; I: +CC, ^CC; Ch: -CCC; +EECC*E (IChCC)
4. ^Ch; %Ch2 ; +ICC*EE (ChCh2ECC)
5. ^Ch; I: +EC, ^EC; +Ch2*CCCI (EEECCh)
6. ^Ch; I: +CCh, ^CCh; Ch2: -CCC; +EEE*ICh (CCh2)
7. ^Ch2; I: +C*Ch2, ^CCh2; Ch: -EEE; +ChCh2IC

As you can clearly see, adding an extra Chapel on T4 still allows us to clear all Estates by turn 7 at which point we can chapel the rest and start building. Maybe we can sneak in a Market Square at some point.
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florrat

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Re: The Omniscient Spy
« Reply #23 on: July 10, 2013, 09:30:19 am »
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Hmm, let's recheck, but less verbose this time.

2. +IChCCC (EEECCCC)
3. ^E; I: +CC, ^CC; Ch: -CCC; +EECC*E (IChCC)
4. ^Ch; %Ch2 ; +ICC*EE (ChCh2ECC)
5. ^Ch; I: +EC, ^EC; +Ch2*CCCI (EEECCh)
6. ^Ch; I: +CCh, ^CCh; Ch2: -CCC; +EEE*ICh (CCh2)
7. ^Ch2; I: +C*Ch2, ^CCh2; Ch: -EEE; +ChCh2IC

As you can clearly see, adding an extra Chapel on T4 still allows us to clear all Estates by turn 7 at which point we can chapel the rest and start building. Maybe we can sneak in a Market Square at some point.
The Spy is definitely not discarding your estate in T3. Probably what hurts you most is putting back a copper, so that's what he does. And probably he will not even play the Spy in T4, so that you reshuffle only at the end of T4. If you have bought a second chapel by then your deck is ChChICCCCEEE. But hey, then you also get a guaranteed chapel in turn 5 or 6... So maybe this doesn't hurt you much more...

Also, why are we assuming we can choose our opening split when we have worst possible shuffle luck?
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JacquesTheBard

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Re: The Omniscient Spy
« Reply #24 on: July 10, 2013, 09:47:20 am »
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Inn is a neat way of bypassing the spy, but florrat is correct. Controlling the opening split to that degree rather goes against the spirit of the puzzle.
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