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Author Topic: WW's Power Rankings  (Read 235599 times)

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dondon151

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Re: WW's Power Rankings
« Reply #50 on: June 30, 2013, 07:24:54 pm »
0

Maybe expound on why you disagree? What makes it a better card, in your view, than what WW said,?

Honestly, if you replaced about half of the negative adjectives in WW's reasoning with positive ones, that would quite adequately explain why I disagree... Of course it's a worse (Remodel variant) that costs a lot, but that doesn't stop me from wanting to use it when it's good, and it's good far more often than its company in the bottom part of the power rankings.
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brokoli

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Re: WW's Power Rankings
« Reply #51 on: June 30, 2013, 08:07:37 pm »
0

For instance, we can compare Harvest to Navigator. Navigator always makes 2, Harvest makes 1-4 (usually 2-4, probably most often 3 followed by 4 followed by 2, 3 being about average). Navigator looks at one more card than Harvest. Navigator lets you keep the cards on top of your deck if you want. Navigator lets you re-order the cards if you keep them. Navigator costs less. Harvest can be sapped at no money if you draw all of your deck, whereas Navigator can't. So almost the only thing for Harvest here is that it tends to make more money. Okay, that is one of the most significant factors here, obviously. But I also think the cost is really big, as Harvest has a lot more to compete with at $5 than Navigator does at $4. So it seems to me that Navigator is pretty clearly better than Harvest.

Little analyses like ^that^ are some of my favorite things to do.
Harvest and navigator is an interesting comparison.
Harvest gives $3, often $4 (and $4 is a lot of money). It discard cards which is good unless you don't want to trigger a reshuffle. The discarding effect can be useful in decks with sifters, or things like courtyard, mandarin or opponen'ts ghost ship. So yeah, in this case the discarding effect is a little bit like navigator. But often, navigator is simply a waste of time because it simply doesn't provides enought money, and can't really help to get a province. It compares to silver which is cheaper. Harvest compares to gold, which is more expensive. Harvest gives like $3,5 and with 4 other cards in hand (a good average money density) you are likely to have at least $8.

I see Harvest as a money provider, and while there are a lot of good $5 for drawing or attacking, there are not so many money-providers. And when you need one, Harvest is great at this task, and IMO generally better than say, Royal Seal, Merchant Ship, Mandarin, Stash...
« Last Edit: June 30, 2013, 08:08:42 pm by brokoli »
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Schneau

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Re: WW's Power Rankings
« Reply #52 on: June 30, 2013, 08:45:45 pm »
+2

I'm ranking them based on what is best, yes it's vague. But to try to explain, it's a combination of 'How often do I want this card over the alternatives' and 'When I do get it, how much better am I for having gotten it than the alternative?" with a little bit of "How does this change how I play even if nobody buys it maybe" (e.g. Noble Brigand really dissuades Silver/Gold strategies, Young Witch makes you get banes you otherwise wouldn't, etc.)

So I guess I would say "How much more likely am I to win by getting this card compared to the best alternative, averaged over all possible kingdoms". Now that might be a little confusing, because you don't count it as extra negative when it's not the best alternative - it just gets a 0 above baseline in those cases.

I hope this makes things clearer, but I fear that it does not.

This reminds me of the baseball sabermetrics idea of "Wins Above Replacement". I wonder if it would be possible to do something similar for Dominion in a statistical way?
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Powerman

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Re: WW's Power Rankings
« Reply #53 on: June 30, 2013, 08:49:24 pm »
0


Harvest gives $3, often $4 (and $4 is a lot of money).

I very rarely get $4 from Harvest.  I'd say it's like:
$1 : 5%
$2 : 25%
$3 : 50%
$4 : 20%

Or something like that.  And on average, discarding 4 cards from your deck does not help or hurt you. 
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Obi Wan Bonogi

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Re: WW's Power Rankings
« Reply #54 on: June 30, 2013, 09:58:51 pm »
+11

I think the amount of times I've received a $4 from Harvest is about equal to the number of times I've had it in my hand when I've drawn my entire deck and said "I'm never buying this card again."
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HiveMindEmulator

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Re: WW's Power Rankings
« Reply #55 on: June 30, 2013, 10:36:54 pm »
0

The tough thing about ranking Expand is dealing with the price. $7 is a really rough price-point in Province games, so that hurts a lot. I remember when the "win rate given turn purchased" graphs existed on councilroom.com, the value was below 0.8 regardless of turn number for Expand, since usually just the fact that you hit $7 is bad. But I think there are definitely a reasonable number of situations in which Expand is really, really good. In Colony games, where the competition from Province isn't so strong at the $8 price-point, it's good more often than it's bad, I'd say.
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rrenaud

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Re: WW's Power Rankings
« Reply #56 on: July 01, 2013, 12:58:59 am »
+4

This reminds me of the baseball sabermetrics idea of "Wins Above Replacement". I wonder if it would be possible to do something similar for Dominion in a statistical way?

Get some expert equally skilled players.  Tell one ahead of time that they won't be able to buy card X.  Let the other play as normal (Indeed, its best if the "control" player doesn't even know there is a weird experiment going on).  Measure the difference in winning percentage between the players as a function of the disallowed card.

Unfortunately, people probably won't let you do this to them enough to get a good data set.  So replace them with a solid AI ;).
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Re: WW's Power Rankings
« Reply #57 on: July 01, 2013, 04:11:57 am »
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And on average, discarding 4 cards from your deck does not help or hurt you.
But it does. Before greening, you reshuffle faster, which means you get your newly-gained improvements to your deck faster, which means your deck is going to keep improving faster and faster. Except when it triggers the reshuffle when you're about to buy a good card. After greening, reshuffling fast means you get your green cards to your deck faster, which hurts you, unless you trigger the reshuffle when you're about to buy a green card.
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brokoli

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Re: WW's Power Rankings
« Reply #58 on: July 01, 2013, 05:39:19 am »
0

I very rarely get $4 from Harvest.  I'd say it's like:
$1 : 5%
$2 : 25%
$3 : 50%
$4 : 20%
25% for $2, really ? I would say not more than 10%. I get $4 way more often. If you get $2 so often, it means that you shouldn't have bought that Harvest at all. However, just like menagerie, getting $4 different cards is easy (well, menagerie is easier because of disappearing cash, but even)
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ragingduckd

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Re: WW's Power Rankings
« Reply #59 on: July 01, 2013, 07:11:47 am »
+6

Maybe expound on why you disagree? What makes it a better card, in your view, than what WW said,?

Honestly, if you replaced about half of the negative adjectives in WW's reasoning with positive ones, that would quite adequately explain why I disagree...

It's often like a worse mine, or a better taxman, or a worse graverobber, or a better rebuild, or a worse altar, and it's more cheap than all these cards, to boot.

Did I get the right ones?
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Watno

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Re: WW's Power Rankings
« Reply #60 on: July 01, 2013, 10:15:56 am »
+2

I'm surprised we have seen Rats already, but not  something like Counting House. Both cards are usually but, but situationally awesome. But I feel Rats is much more awesome when it shines, and does so more often.
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Powerman

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Re: WW's Power Rankings
« Reply #61 on: July 01, 2013, 10:59:56 am »
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I very rarely get $4 from Harvest.  I'd say it's like:
$1 : 5%
$2 : 25%
$3 : 50%
$4 : 20%
25% for $2, really ? I would say not more than 10%. I get $4 way more often. If you get $2 so often, it means that you shouldn't have bought that Harvest at all. However, just like menagerie, getting $4 different cards is easy (well, menagerie is easier because of disappearing cash, but even)

Except menagerie is usually used in engines, where you like will trash (at least some) of your starting Estates and Coppers.  Harvest is not really an engine card, and if you can't trash your starting cards, there is very little control of your top 4.  Sure, you can use it in an engine, but... better not draw your deck first!
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markusin

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Re: WW's Power Rankings
« Reply #62 on: July 01, 2013, 11:56:19 am »
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I see Harvest as being the Adventurer for $5. Both cards are terminal actions that rely on cards on top of your deck to generate coin, and (usually) discard cards from your deck in the process. They both fail once there are no cards in your deck/discard. Also, they both pretty much suck in the early game. Harvest just has a lower cap on what it can potentially do; Harvest only gives a maximum of $4, but can only discard a maximum of 4 cards from your deck.

The big difference between the two cards is that Harvest costs $5, and therefore doesn't necessarily compete with Gold, but Adventurer does and Gold is present in every game.

The sad part is, it's hard to get Adventurer to reliably give more than $4. That requires you to replace your starting Coppers with Golds and Silvers. I'd say that it's more likely that your deck has a variety of cards that end up powering Harvest than it is to have only strong treasures that power-up Adventurer. For the record, I attribute Harvest a $4 play percentage that's higher than 20% (more like 25-30%) in any deck that you'd want to add Menagerie to.

Then there's Venture, which is more like the fixed Adventurer. Even Venture is not a particularly standout card, and usually wants the same conditions that Adventurer wants.
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dondon151

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Re: WW's Power Rankings
« Reply #63 on: July 01, 2013, 12:09:38 pm »
+2

Did I get the right ones?

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Watno

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Re: WW's Power Rankings
« Reply #64 on: July 01, 2013, 12:19:12 pm »
0

So let's play a game and predict what will be #1.

I think it will be Goons, because it's almost always usefull, and often insanely strong.
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jsh357

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Re: WW's Power Rankings
« Reply #65 on: July 01, 2013, 12:21:38 pm »
+1

Probably Rebuild or King's Court.  I'd personally choose Chapel.
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HiveMindEmulator

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Re: WW's Power Rankings
« Reply #66 on: July 01, 2013, 12:28:15 pm »
+1

I would probably pick Ambassador, followed by Goons. But this is WW's list, so I'd guess Masq is #1.
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Robz888

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Re: WW's Power Rankings
« Reply #67 on: July 01, 2013, 12:28:23 pm »
0

Probably Rebuild or King's Court.  I'd personally choose Chapel.

I also expect it will be Rebuild or King's Court. And personally, I would choose Rebuild or King's Court, so yeah.
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jsh357

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Re: WW's Power Rankings
« Reply #68 on: July 01, 2013, 12:40:38 pm »
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For the record my top 5 are Chapel, Ambassador, Masquerade, Rebuild and King's Court (not necessarily that order). 

I wouldn't put Goons that high--it's great, but the other ones totally shape your deck and transform the game.  Sea Hag is top 20, but it has so many counters and boards where it's questionable nowadays that I don't think it's nearly as good.
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Robz888

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Re: WW's Power Rankings
« Reply #69 on: July 01, 2013, 12:41:54 pm »
+1

For the record my top 5 are Chapel, Ambassador, Masquerade, Rebuild and King's Court (not necessarily that order).  I wouldn't put Goons that high--it's great, but the other ones totally shape your deck and transform the game.

I don't see how you can put Ambassador above Masquerade, but maybe that's just me.
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jsh357

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Re: WW's Power Rankings
« Reply #70 on: July 01, 2013, 12:43:56 pm »
+4

For the record my top 5 are Chapel, Ambassador, Masquerade, Rebuild and King's Court (not necessarily that order).  I wouldn't put Goons that high--it's great, but the other ones totally shape your deck and transform the game.

I don't see how you can put Ambassador above Masquerade, but maybe that's just me.

Man, I said they weren't in order.  Learn to read, Mr. Journalist.  Man.

(I would have put Ambassador at #1 before Dark Ages)
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Robz888

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Re: WW's Power Rankings
« Reply #71 on: July 01, 2013, 12:44:44 pm »
0

For the record my top 5 are Chapel, Ambassador, Masquerade, Rebuild and King's Court (not necessarily that order).  I wouldn't put Goons that high--it's great, but the other ones totally shape your deck and transform the game.

I don't see how you can put Ambassador above Masquerade, but maybe that's just me.

Man, I said they weren't in order.  Learn to read, Mr. Journalist.  Man.

(I would have put Ambassador at #1 before Dark Ages)

Ya got me.
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SCSN

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Re: WW's Power Rankings
« Reply #72 on: July 01, 2013, 12:48:09 pm »
+1

Rebuild, KC, Goons, in that order.

My only real disagreement so far is that Advisor is either slightly or way too high. The card is terrible.
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Mic Qsenoch

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Re: WW's Power Rankings
« Reply #73 on: July 01, 2013, 12:57:50 pm »
+1

I'm not sure I can even squeeze KC into the top 10.
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liopoil

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Re: WW's Power Rankings
« Reply #74 on: July 01, 2013, 12:58:51 pm »
0

I've yet to play a board with KC that hasn't been an insane engine or megaturn game.
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