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Author Topic: Just noticed something interesting about Storeroom  (Read 2207 times)

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Titandrake

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Just noticed something interesting about Storeroom
« on: June 26, 2013, 10:46:39 pm »
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If you open Storeroom/Silver, you have a very, very good chance of getting $5 on turn 3/4.

I haven't mathed it out, but here's the gist: if Storeroom collides with Silver, guaranteed $5. If Storeroom doesn't collide, you can discard your hand, and if you draw a Silver it's guaranteed $5. There's not that many configurations where you miss the $5, because your deck has to be pretty specific in its layout.
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ftl

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Re: Just noticed something interesting about Storeroom
« Reply #1 on: June 26, 2013, 10:54:22 pm »
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Something similar has been discussed with Storeroom being really good at hitting $3P for Familiar.
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Warfreak2

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Re: Just noticed something interesting about Storeroom
« Reply #2 on: June 27, 2013, 06:54:11 am »
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Storeroom/Potion has about 8/9 probability of hitting $3+P, and any $3+P hand with Silver instead of Potion is a $5 hand. So, hitting $5 with Storeroom/Silver is strictly more likely, because there's also the chance you draw five Coppers together.
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WanderingWinder

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Re: Just noticed something interesting about Storeroom
« Reply #3 on: June 27, 2013, 07:47:04 am »
+1

Storeroom/Potion has about 8/9 probability of hitting $3+P, and any $3+P hand with Silver instead of Potion is a $5 hand. So, hitting $5 with Storeroom/Silver is strictly more likely, because there's also the chance you draw five Coppers together.
Or Silver and 3-4 coppers.

I calculated this last night (take it with a grain of salt - I did it in my head and have slept since) and got that it would miss for sure 23/396 times, which is just under 6%. This also doesn't include what happens if you get silver t3 and storeroom t4, because it's then a bit complicated (what did you buy on t3 for instance), and assumes that these situations would always produce a qualifying $5. So in actuality, it should be a little more than that, but not much, probably around 6%. So this is good, but keep in mind that silver/silver is already only a couple percent worse - really should go down to what's better for your deck in the long run (possibly also how important the cycling is).

Warfreak2

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Re: Just noticed something interesting about Storeroom
« Reply #4 on: June 27, 2013, 08:23:45 am »
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Or Silver and 3-4 coppers.
That corresponds to the $3+P hands you can get without drawing your Storeroom, so is included in the 8/9 probability already.

This also doesn't include what happens if you get silver t3 and storeroom t4, because it's then a bit complicated (what did you buy on t3 for instance), and assumes that these situations would always produce a qualifying $5.
If you buy Silver (or something equivalent like Royal Seal or Counterfeit*) on T3, then your T4 Storeroom can see two reshuffled cards out of 6, so you have a 1 - (4C2/6C2) = 3/5 chance of hitting a Silver for $5. Anything else, it's 1 - (5C2/6C2) = 1/3, except Stash, in which case of course you can draw it for sure...

*OK, drawing Counterfeit and three Estates is theoretically possible, if two of them are the last two cards in your deck, and you draw one of them reshuffled.
« Last Edit: June 27, 2013, 08:39:53 am by Warfreak2 »
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RTT

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Re: Just noticed something interesting about Storeroom
« Reply #5 on: June 27, 2013, 09:00:12 am »
+1

OK how often is someone who buys the storeroom silver opening for getting a pretty save 5$ really buying stash,Royal seal or cache turn 3$ just to connect it with his storeroom turn 4  ;)
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Warfreak2

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Re: Just noticed something interesting about Storeroom
« Reply #6 on: June 27, 2013, 09:18:30 am »
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Storeroom/Stash doesn't sound like a terrible combo, the Storeroom lets you cycle enough to reshuffle often.

Cache fails equivalency because of those two extra Coppers, which reduce your T4 chance of drawing it to 1 - (6C2/8C2) = 13/28, though it's more likely to hit $6.

Anyway, as with the Potion, it's just calculating probabilities, not recommending strategies. Courtyard is one percentage point better than Warehouse for buying a Familiar, for example, but both are reliable, and you probably prefer the Warehouse because it lets play Familiar when you draw it.
« Last Edit: June 27, 2013, 09:24:42 am by Warfreak2 »
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Witherweaver

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Re: Just noticed something interesting about Storeroom
« Reply #7 on: June 27, 2013, 09:28:16 am »
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Storeroom/Stash doesn't sound like a terrible combo, the Storeroom lets you cycle enough to reshuffle often.

Cache fails equivalency because of those two extra Coppers, which reduce your T4 chance of drawing it to 1 - (6C2/8C2) = 13/28, though it's more likely to hit $6.

Anyway, as with the Potion, it's just calculating probabilities, not recommending strategies. Courtyard is one percentage point better than Warehouse for buying a Familiar, for example, but both are reliable, and you probably prefer the Warehouse because it lets play Familiar when you draw it.

But Courtyard just delays the Familiar play to next turn.  Is that a lot worse?  You also get more money on that turn for a $5 or $6 compared to Warehouse, which could put you in a better position after all the cursing is done.
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Warfreak2

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Re: Just noticed something interesting about Storeroom
« Reply #8 on: June 27, 2013, 10:49:16 am »
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It can be a lot worse; with Warehouses you can play the Familiar again next turn, too. Warehouse actually does cycle one card faster than Courtyard, helping you get to your Familiar again sooner. It also matters if your opponent will reshuffle before you can play the Familiar, because you want that Curse to be shuffled into their deck. Also, the Curses might run out before your next turn, especially when your opponent has multiple Familiars. Then there's that small chance of drawing two Familiars dead at once. Courtyard has clear advantages besides the Curse split, sure, but I think I'd usually go for the Warehouse. If Junk Dealer or Upgrade are available, that would be a good reason to want the Courtyard, though!
« Last Edit: June 27, 2013, 11:02:35 am by Warfreak2 »
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