Dominion Strategy Forum

Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length
Pages: [1] 2  All

Author Topic: Challenge: Highest winrate against big money  (Read 15333 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

NoMoreFun

  • Mountebank
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2012
  • Respect: +2127
    • View Profile
Challenge: Highest winrate against big money
« on: June 22, 2013, 05:41:19 am »
0

Is there a strategy out there that utterly annihilates the standard big money bot to the point where it never even wins a a single game?

I'm thinking there'd be a bot out there that can end the game or set up a Masquerade pin (with Monument to guarantee victory after it stops pinning) so fast that the Big Money bot never wins a single game.
Logged

Geronimoo

  • Saboteur
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1059
  • Respect: +868
    • View Profile
    • Geronimoo's Dominion Simulator
Re: Challenge: Highest winrate against big money
« Reply #1 on: June 22, 2013, 06:28:50 am »
+2

Here's an extremely simple one (Ironworks rushing Great Halls and Islands):

Code: [Select]
<player name="Ironworks Rush"
 author="Anonymous"
 description="No description available">
 <type name="Bot"/>
 <type name="UserCreated"/>
 <type name="Province"/>
 <type name="TwoPlayer"/>
   <buy name="Ironworks"/>
   <buy name="Great_Hall"/>
   <buy name="Island"/>
</player>
Logged

NoMoreFun

  • Mountebank
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2012
  • Respect: +2127
    • View Profile
Re: Challenge: Highest winrate against big money
« Reply #2 on: June 22, 2013, 06:51:54 am »
0

What's the winrate? 100%?

Edit: Did it on the simulator. Big money still won a few games (it was a 99% winrate)
« Last Edit: June 22, 2013, 10:19:47 am by NoMoreFun »
Logged

scott_pilgrim

  • Saboteur
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1102
  • Respect: +2146
    • View Profile
Re: Challenge: Highest winrate against big money
« Reply #3 on: June 27, 2013, 09:00:52 pm »
0

I added a Woodcutter (just one, prioritized over Silver) into the IGG/Gardens bot, and got a 100% win rate over 10,000 games.  Then I ran it for 100,000 games and got 1 win for BMU, and 2 ties.  I think that might be the best we can get.  Without the Woodcutter it was also very good, but since there are no other actions in the deck there's no reason not to throw in a Woodcutter.  I'm wondering if there is any other minor improvement that can be made to it?

Edit: With Nomad Camp instead of Woodcutter (but still getting a Woodcutter if it doesn't get $4 early), over 1 million games, I get 6 ties and 3 losses.  I know the challenge is to find something that's guaranteed to beat BMU, but this is really really close.  Maybe if there are just a few cases if awful shuffle luck vs. perfect shuffle luck it might be possible to track them down and force a win in another way just for those cases?
« Last Edit: June 29, 2013, 07:57:18 pm by scott_pilgrim »
Logged

blueblimp

  • Margrave
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2849
  • Respect: +1559
    • View Profile
Re: Challenge: Highest winrate against big money
« Reply #4 on: June 27, 2013, 11:16:27 pm »
+1

I'm pretty sure that a properly tuned Goons engine could win 100% against BMU. Unlike a rush, it doesn't depend on ending the game quickly, which means the only hope for BMU is to empty the Provinces ASAP, which isn't that fast even with perfect shuffle luck. Throw in a curser too and BMU is going to have a tough time.

I think a composition like Masquerade, Quarry, FV, Wharf, Witch, Goons, KC should do the trick. Maybe throw in some Worker's Villages too to rack up points and +buys. I can't test this now because my Java install is borked.

My submission to Simulation Tournament: Quints might do the trick, though Governors are not a great road to go if facing BMU with worst possible shuffle luck for you and best possible shuffle luck for BMU, because you'll tend to miss your Goons and cycle their deck.
Logged

sudgy

  • Cartographer
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 3431
  • Shuffle iT Username: sudgy
  • It's pronounced "SOO-jee"
  • Respect: +2707
    • View Profile
Re: Challenge: Highest winrate against big money
« Reply #5 on: June 27, 2013, 11:19:30 pm »
0

If there's space, you could get Watchtower+Trader to not get bogged down by coppers you buy...
Logged
If you're wondering what my avatar is, watch this.

Check out my logic puzzle blog!

   Quote from: sudgy on June 31, 2011, 11:47:46 pm

blueblimp

  • Margrave
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2849
  • Respect: +1559
    • View Profile
Re: Challenge: Highest winrate against big money
« Reply #6 on: June 27, 2013, 11:40:21 pm »
0

If there's space, you could get Watchtower+Trader to not get bogged down by coppers you buy...
You'll never need to buy coppers. By that point, you'll have more VP than exist as green cards. :)
Logged

Davio

  • 2012 Dutch Champion
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 4787
  • Respect: +3412
    • View Profile
Re: Challenge: Highest winrate against big money
« Reply #7 on: June 28, 2013, 04:02:50 am »
0

How about a Bishop-Fortress Golden deck helped by Chapel?

BMU really takes a long, long time to clear out Provinces on his own, ~30 turns or something?
That's plenty of time for a deck like this to come together and get 12 VP per turn until BMU buys out every card but one in the kingdom (if it's programmed not to suicide). And then you buy the last card for the win.
Logged

BSG: Cagprezimal Adama
Mage Knight: Arythea

Warfreak2

  • Saboteur
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1149
  • KC->KC->[Scavenger, Scavenger, Lookout]
  • Respect: +1324
    • View Profile
    • Music what I do
Re: Challenge: Highest winrate against big money
« Reply #8 on: June 28, 2013, 05:17:36 am »
0

Hermit/Market Square? Mega Poor House? Typically end the game on, like, turn 11-12. I expect there are lots of strategies with 100.000% win rates against BM.
« Last Edit: June 28, 2013, 05:18:42 am by Warfreak2 »
Logged
If the only engine on the board is Procession->Conspirator, I will play it.

Davio

  • 2012 Dutch Champion
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 4787
  • Respect: +3412
    • View Profile
Re: Challenge: Highest winrate against big money
« Reply #9 on: June 28, 2013, 05:35:25 am »
+1

I generally think that strategies that resolve around actually buying VP cards tend to lose at least 1 unlucky game against BM.
Not buying any VP cards, instead focusing on tokens, is better I think.
Logged

BSG: Cagprezimal Adama
Mage Knight: Arythea

Warfreak2

  • Saboteur
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1149
  • KC->KC->[Scavenger, Scavenger, Lookout]
  • Respect: +1324
    • View Profile
    • Music what I do
Re: Challenge: Highest winrate against big money
« Reply #10 on: June 28, 2013, 05:40:32 am »
0

Well, if you only buy green cards on the turn you end the game, you aren't risking stalling.
Logged
If the only engine on the board is Procession->Conspirator, I will play it.

Davio

  • 2012 Dutch Champion
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 4787
  • Respect: +3412
    • View Profile
Re: Challenge: Highest winrate against big money
« Reply #11 on: June 28, 2013, 05:47:32 am »
+1

Well, if you only buy green cards on the turn you end the game, you aren't risking stalling.
No, but you're risking BMU to get over half the VP before your final turn.
Logged

BSG: Cagprezimal Adama
Mage Knight: Arythea

DStu

  • Margrave
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2627
  • Respect: +1490
    • View Profile
Re: Challenge: Highest winrate against big money
« Reply #12 on: June 28, 2013, 05:55:52 am »
+4

So using blueblimps code for the unluckiest path for BigMoney to 8 Provinces, I got the luckiest path for it and it's 16 turns.
Code: [Select]
CCCVV CCCCV
CCCVV SCCCC V
SSCCV SCCCC GVV
GCVVV SSSCC GGCCC
SSSCC GSCCC GGCCV VVV
VVVVV SSSCC GSCCC GGCCV

 3  4  3  6  6  6  4  8  9  8  8  8  0  8  8  8
So that's the time you have when you always want to beat BM...
Logged

-Stef-

  • 2012 & 2016 DS Champion
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1574
  • Respect: +4419
    • View Profile
Re: Challenge: Highest winrate against big money
« Reply #13 on: June 28, 2013, 06:02:27 am »
+4

Many ways to go here, but I think the safest one is Thief.

Ironworks, Chapel, Wishing Well, Throne Room, Thief, Monument, Smithy.
If you really want to overdo it, you could add Highway, Laboratory, Kings Court.


Edit: I played a bit around with the simulator and got it to win 100% over 100.000 games.
But oh boy is that bot stupid! I just can't get him to trash his coppers. It says 'Agressive trashing' on chapel but still he loves to keep some coppers around.
In the end I just allowed him to steal some golds and only then he rids himself of the coppers.
Starting out with some wishing well's really helps, mainly because the bot knows how to play them.
I removed the throne rooms, because of the opposite reason.

<player name="Steal da money"
 author="Stef"
 description="No description available">
 <type name="UserCreated"/>
 <type name="Bot"/>
 <type name="TwoPlayer"/>
 <type name="Province"/>
  <board contents="King's Court, Village, Ironworks, Chapel, Laboratory, Smithy, Thief, Wishing Well, Throne Room, Witch" bane="null"/>
   <buy name="Ironworks">
      <condition>
         <left type="countCardsInDeck" attribute="Ironworks"/>
         <operator type="equalTo" />
         <right type="constant" attribute="0.0"/>
      </condition>
   </buy>
   <buy name="Chapel" strategy="aggressiveTrashing">
      <condition>
         <left type="countCardsInDeck" attribute="Chapel"/>
         <operator type="equalTo" />
         <right type="constant" attribute="0.0"/>
      </condition>
   </buy>
   <buy name="Wishing_Well">
      <condition>
         <left type="countCardsInDeck" attribute="Wishing_Well"/>
         <operator type="smallerThan" />
         <right type="constant" attribute="3.0"/>
      </condition>
   </buy>
   <buy name="Village">
      <condition>
         <left type="countCardsInDeck" attribute="Village"/>
         <operator type="equalTo" />
         <right type="constant" attribute="0.0"/>
      </condition>
   </buy>
   <buy name="Smithy">
      <condition>
         <left type="countCardsInDeck" attribute="Smithy"/>
         <operator type="smallerThan" />
         <right type="countCardsInDeck" attribute="Village"/>
         <extra_operation type="divideBy" attribute="3.0" />
      </condition>
   </buy>
   <buy name="Thief">
      <condition>
         <left type="countCardsInDeck" attribute="Thief"/>
         <operator type="equalTo" />
         <right type="constant" attribute="0.0"/>
      </condition>
   </buy>
   <buy name="Worker$s_Village">
      <condition>
         <left type="countCardsInDeck" attribute="Worker$s_Village"/>
         <operator type="equalTo" />
         <right type="constant" attribute="0.0"/>
      </condition>
   </buy>
   <buy name="Village">
      <condition>
         <left type="countCardsInDeck" attribute="Village"/>
         <operator type="smallerThan" />
         <right type="constant" attribute="5.0"/>
      </condition>
   </buy>
   <buy name="Thief">
      <condition>
         <left type="countCardsInDeck" attribute="Thief"/>
         <operator type="smallerThan" />
         <right type="constant" attribute="3.0"/>
      </condition>
   </buy>
   <buy name="Monument">
      <condition>
         <left type="countCardsInDeck" attribute="Monument"/>
         <operator type="smallerThan" />
         <right type="constant" attribute="2.0"/>
      </condition>
   </buy>
   <buy name="Laboratory">
      <condition>
         <left type="countCardsInDeck" attribute="Laboratory"/>
         <operator type="smallerThan" />
         <right type="constant" attribute="6.0"/>
      </condition>
   </buy>
   <buy name="Village">
      <condition>
         <left type="countCardsInDeck" attribute="Village"/>
         <operator type="smallerThan" />
         <right type="constant" attribute="9.0"/>
      </condition>
   </buy>
   <buy name="Gold">
      <condition>
         <left type="countCardsInDeck" attribute="Gold"/>
         <operator type="smallerThan" />
         <right type="constant" attribute="2.0"/>
      </condition>
   </buy>
   <buy name="Silver">
      <condition>
         <left type="countCardsInDeck" attribute="Gold"/>
         <operator type="equalTo" />
         <right type="constant" attribute="0.0"/>
      </condition>
      <condition>
         <left type="countCardsInDeck" attribute="Silver"/>
         <operator type="equalTo" />
         <right type="constant" attribute="0.0"/>
      </condition>
   </buy>
</player>
« Last Edit: June 28, 2013, 08:19:26 am by -Stef- »
Logged
Join the Dominion League!

Warfreak2

  • Saboteur
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1149
  • KC->KC->[Scavenger, Scavenger, Lookout]
  • Respect: +1324
    • View Profile
    • Music what I do
Re: Challenge: Highest winrate against big money
« Reply #14 on: June 28, 2013, 06:25:33 am »
0

So that's the time you have when you always want to beat BM...
Unless you have attacks. I think Chapel down to FV/Torturer would be a good start for the Poor House engine.
Logged
If the only engine on the board is Procession->Conspirator, I will play it.

ghostofmars

  • Moneylender
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 162
  • Respect: +71
    • View Profile
Re: Challenge: Highest winrate against big money
« Reply #15 on: June 28, 2013, 09:16:07 am »
+1

If you are starting player, you can get to more points than DStu's optimal BMU bot without attacks. Assuming worst shuffle luck here, i.e., Cha and IW always as late as possible and always collide.

In the beginning I use For just as a cantrip, so I don't display its plays
1/2 [Cha/IW]
3/4 [For]
5/6/7 IW(xFor),Cha (/CCC/)
8 IW(xFor),Cha (/CCC/)
9 IW(xBi),Cha (/CEE/)

At this point my deck is down to: Cha,IW,Bi,E,3xFor, so that I can play my whole deck every turn.
10 For,Bi(/For/),For,For,IW(xBi),Cha(/E/) VP:3
11 For,Bi(/Cha/),For,Bi(/For/),IW(xBi) [Ped] VP:8
12 Ped,For,Bi(/IW/),For,Bi(/For/),Bi(/For/) [For] VP:17
13 Ped,For,Bi(/For/),For,Bi(/For/),Bi(/For/) [Bi] VP:26
now the golden deck is completed, every turn I gain 12 VP, so that I have 62 VP by turn 16.

Probably this can be optimized further, so that one wins, when the BMU player starts as well.
Logged

Davio

  • 2012 Dutch Champion
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 4787
  • Respect: +3412
    • View Profile
Re: Challenge: Highest winrate against big money
« Reply #16 on: June 28, 2013, 09:58:22 am »
+2

Too bad Fortress isn't implemented in Dominiate, I really wanted to try fiddling with it.
And too bad there's never been an official update of Geronimoo's sim even though he's sneakily adding the cards for himself!
Logged

BSG: Cagprezimal Adama
Mage Knight: Arythea

DG

  • Governor
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 4074
  • Respect: +2624
    • View Profile
Re: Challenge: Highest winrate against big money
« Reply #17 on: June 28, 2013, 10:42:57 am »
+1

Most of the bots entered for the quints simulation tournament get 99%+ against big money.

This puzzle also reminds me of  the 'lucky chancellor' problem where you had to design a deck that could beat the chancellor on best draws even though your deck had the worst possible draws. I think I came up with something like chapel/ironworks gaining workers villages and a remodel, switching up to goons, and then buying out the peddler pile. I doubt a simulator could do the card play for that one though.
Logged

sudgy

  • Cartographer
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 3431
  • Shuffle iT Username: sudgy
  • It's pronounced "SOO-jee"
  • Respect: +2707
    • View Profile
Re: Challenge: Highest winrate against big money
« Reply #18 on: June 30, 2013, 01:47:55 am »
0

What about a KC-KC-Goons-Masquerade pin?  With Chapel trashing things, you might be able to get it set up quick enough.  Although you can't get the simulator to trash everything, I've tried...
Logged
If you're wondering what my avatar is, watch this.

Check out my logic puzzle blog!

   Quote from: sudgy on June 31, 2011, 11:47:46 pm

Warfreak2

  • Saboteur
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1149
  • KC->KC->[Scavenger, Scavenger, Lookout]
  • Respect: +1324
    • View Profile
    • Music what I do
Re: Challenge: Highest winrate against big money
« Reply #19 on: July 01, 2013, 05:09:34 am »
0

You have to guarantee setting it up quickly enough, in the worst case scenario.
Logged
If the only engine on the board is Procession->Conspirator, I will play it.

GendoIkari

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 9707
  • Respect: +10765
    • View Profile
Re: Challenge: Highest winrate against big money
« Reply #20 on: July 01, 2013, 09:43:46 am »
0

I'm curious as to what the chances are that the simulator will ever actually run the worse-case scenario (and best-case scenario for BMU). Even across 100,000 games, I'm assuming that the number of possible games FAR excedes that. Even if you ran over a million games, I doubt the sim would ever put BMU's best possible game against the submitted solution's worst possible game.
Logged
Check out my F.DS extension for Chrome! Card links; Dominion icons, and maybe more! http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=13363.0

Thread for Firefox version:
http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=16305.0

Warfreak2

  • Saboteur
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1149
  • KC->KC->[Scavenger, Scavenger, Lookout]
  • Respect: +1324
    • View Profile
    • Music what I do
Re: Challenge: Highest winrate against big money
« Reply #21 on: July 01, 2013, 09:57:22 am »
0

Indeed; once the probabilities are 100% to a few decimal places, you need a new method. Exhaustive search is one, it doesn't have to be brute-force. Some people will throw about big factorial numbers but these are nonsense when most of your cards are not unique.
Logged
If the only engine on the board is Procession->Conspirator, I will play it.

DStu

  • Margrave
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2627
  • Respect: +1490
    • View Profile
Re: Challenge: Highest winrate against big money
« Reply #22 on: July 01, 2013, 02:17:49 pm »
0

I have not thought it through completely, but I think you can guarantee to get your deck down to Chapel-Ironworks-Hamet-Scheme-Bridge in 9 turns when you start Chapel-Scheme, and from there it should take 5 turns for a Highway-Market Square megaturn into 13 Duchy-Dukes, which beats 8 Provinces, or one more for additional 10 Markets if you want to pile out.
Logged

GendoIkari

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 9707
  • Respect: +10765
    • View Profile
Re: Challenge: Highest winrate against big money
« Reply #23 on: July 01, 2013, 02:31:23 pm »
0

I have not thought it through completely, but I think you can guarantee to get your deck down to Chapel-Ironworks-Hamet-Scheme-Bridge in 9 turns when you start Chapel-Scheme, and from there it should take 5 turns for a Highway-Market Square megaturn into 13 Duchy-Dukes, which beats 8 Provinces, or one more for additional 10 Markets if you want to pile out.

Remember that BMU will be buying some Duchies in the meantime though.
Logged
Check out my F.DS extension for Chrome! Card links; Dominion icons, and maybe more! http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=13363.0

Thread for Firefox version:
http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=16305.0

DStu

  • Margrave
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2627
  • Respect: +1490
    • View Profile
Re: Challenge: Highest winrate against big money
« Reply #24 on: July 01, 2013, 02:39:32 pm »
0

I have not thought it through completely, but I think you can guarantee to get your deck down to Chapel-Ironworks-Hamet-Scheme-Bridge in 9 turns when you start Chapel-Scheme, and from there it should take 5 turns for a Highway-Market Square megaturn into 13 Duchy-Dukes, which beats 8 Provinces, or one more for additional 10 Markets if you want to pile out.

Remember that BMU will be buying some Duchies in the meantime though.

Quote
3  4  3  6  6  6  4  8  9  8  8  8  0  8  8  8
BMU is busy buying Provinces....
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  All
 

Page created in 0.082 seconds with 20 queries.