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Awaclus

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Re: Squire
« Reply #50 on: June 25, 2014, 01:07:39 am »
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@jomini: Thx for your detailed answer :) I do now understand, in which kind of situations you see squire as a one-shot-gold.
You precisely described the necessary effort to make it work, but it seems to me like you underestimate it:

if your engine can support it, of buying Squire to trash and then feeding the attack to your scaling TfB

I highlighted all the required ingredients, and I agree with KingZog both here:

I've never seen any of this come into practice because it's just a pain

and here:


Maybe I'm wrong. I just have never ever seen this kind of thing be more effective than just buying components.
I've opened Watchtower on a Goons board with Squire before. So not to produce TfB fodder, but somewhat as a magical one-shot Gold-and-a-bit. And it is rather brutal. I could imagine there's some potential to add a TfB into the mix too in a setup like that.

Watchtower is special because it's effect is instant. You don't need to wait a shuffle and line up the two cards. So in the case of Watchtower I agree the on-trash ability is great and can be really useful.
Plus, it's guaranteed to hit the Squire and it's not something you could have used on an Estate in your deck instead.
« Last Edit: June 25, 2014, 01:09:36 am by Awaclus »
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Minotaur

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Re: Squire
« Reply #51 on: June 25, 2014, 04:48:44 am »
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@jomini: Thx for your detailed answer :) I do now understand, in which kind of situations you see squire as a one-shot-gold.
You precisely described the necessary effort to make it work, but it seems to me like you underestimate it:

if your engine can support it, of buying Squire to trash and then feeding the attack to your scaling TfB

I highlighted all the required ingredients, and I agree with KingZog both here:

I've never seen any of this come into practice because it's just a pain

and here:


Maybe I'm wrong. I just have never ever seen this kind of thing be more effective than just buying components.
I've opened Watchtower on a Goons board with Squire before. So not to produce TfB fodder, but somewhat as a magical one-shot Gold-and-a-bit. And it is rather brutal. I could imagine there's some potential to add a TfB into the mix too in a setup like that.

Watchtower is special because it's effect is instant. You don't need to wait a shuffle and line up the two cards. So in the case of Watchtower I agree the on-trash ability is great and can be really useful.
Plus, it's guaranteed to hit the Squire and it's not something you could have used on an Estate in your deck instead.

Squire is an ok $2 card even if you never trash it.  If you do trash it, it magically becomes an Attack card, most likely $4 or $5 in value, in addition to any other TfB effects your trasher may have.  It's a good target for Upgrade or Junk Dealer.  It's also a good target for Graverobber or Altar.  It's only a so-so target for Remodel, unless there's a really nice $4 card on the board.

If you have Chapel, then spamming Squires can be the most reasonable way to gain attacks - $5 and a Squire will get you $6 and 3 buys, after all.  Steward works too.  Gain Silver from Squire early, or +2 actions if you're at risk of a terminal collision, or go for the buys when your trashers are ready for the Squire fodder.

Would I go out of my way trying to Forge or Expand a Squire if I didn't want the Squire for anything else in the first place?  Well, no, but it's an ok $2 card, and it might be worth buying at the $3 mark often enough.
« Last Edit: June 25, 2014, 04:49:52 am by Minotaur »
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jomini

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Re: Squire
« Reply #52 on: June 25, 2014, 06:31:46 pm »
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Of course there need to be attack cards worth gaining, and a $6 card worth gaining. I've never seen any of this come into practice because it's just a pain to constantly line up two specific card if unless you already have a good engine going. And if you have a good engine going chance are a real Gold will help more than turn delays of fiddling with Squire and Upgrading them into things.

Maybe I'm wrong. I just have never ever seen this kind of thing be more effective than just buying components.

Upgrade/Chapel/Squire with any $5 attack. If you open 5/2, why on earth wouldn't you get to Gold via trashing the Squire? I can't imagine getting to $6 as fast while thinning down that much; not to mention that I get a freebie $3 (e.g. Silver). Other options, like Develop/Chapel can also get you built up faster with Squire.

The big thing is that using scaling TfB with Squire is a tactical trick that happens some games but not others just depending on how your early shuffle luck went. For instance, you hit $7 in your engine with 2 buys you can grab the gold, but that delays you on buying components just as much as Squire. Going Squire (which isn't that bad even in engines that have better parts)/Component lets you go just a half turn faster.

Minotaur:
Remodel though works in two other ways with Squire. Firstly, for an engine it is virtually always a good move to Remodel copper -> Squire. Squire's main weakness is the lack of +card, but when you are effectively decreasing deck size getting it, you are doing well. The other big thing is that Remodeling silver can be a strong option, particularly if you have strong engine options.

Much better, I find, is Butcher. Butchering Squires into Squires  (and estates into Squires) gives you nice coin. Any $4 or $5 attack can then be Butchered into a Province every other turn; late game you can either splurge on Butchering attacks or just spending mass coin. The fact that Squire is equal price to Estate and $2 up from copper make a lot of the Scaling TfB better. Even something like Develop really likes adding Squire to board - Silvers can now be useful $4s and Squires, with attacks you can get a lot of value out.

Though as you say, none of this is compelling of its own right, but I'd say at least a fifth of Squire boards make these sorts of things somewhat viable.
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KingZog3

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Re: Squire
« Reply #53 on: June 26, 2014, 10:23:00 pm »
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Of course there need to be attack cards worth gaining, and a $6 card worth gaining. I've never seen any of this come into practice because it's just a pain to constantly line up two specific card if unless you already have a good engine going. And if you have a good engine going chance are a real Gold will help more than turn delays of fiddling with Squire and Upgrading them into things.

Maybe I'm wrong. I just have never ever seen this kind of thing be more effective than just buying components.

Upgrade/Chapel/Squire with any $5 attack. If you open 5/2, why on earth wouldn't you get to Gold via trashing the Squire? I can't imagine getting to $6 as fast while thinning down that much; not to mention that I get a freebie $3 (e.g. Silver). Other options, like Develop/Chapel can also get you built up faster with Squire.


Because you aren't getting a Gold via trashing Squire. You are going through a process that takes a really long time. Probably longer than it takes Transmute to get a Gold.

So I need a strong trasher, Upgrade/Remake/Remodel, Squire, a $5 attack to what? Get a Gold? at the earliest you get to use this Gold by your third shuffle. And that assumes you open Squire+trasher, collide the two turn 3 or 4, then collide the attack card the next shuffle. And if you open chapel, my guess is that there is a better source of money on the board than Gold. Something like Bridge or Conspirator or something. Even if there's Grand Market, my guess is it's faster to just thin your deck and buy the GM's with $. Keep you attack cards you buy, keep the squires to gain silver and for actions, now you have more components in less time because you spent your time using your trashers to thin as opposed to gaining Gold.

I've played I don't know, 3000 games combining IRL and goko. Dark Ages was my very first expansion too. I have never, ever seen squire trashing to gain attack cards to then upgrade them as anything but a cute trick you can do once in a while under specific circumstances.


The big thing is that using scaling TfB with Squire is a tactical trick that happens some games but not others just depending on how your early shuffle luck went.

Exactly, it's a tactical trick. It happens, but really it's just so slow to turn you Squire into Golds. Transmute is bad, this is worse for Gold gaining.


For instance, you hit $7 in your engine with 2 buys you can grab the gold, but that delays you on buying components just as much as Squire. Going Squire (which isn't that bad even in engines that have better parts)/Component lets you go just a half turn faster.

That's why when I hit $7 early, I still buy the component. It does way more good than the gold. Like, way more. And if it's an attack, chances are you want to play it, not turn it into a gold. Buy the component, play the attack, Gold always comes later in an engine. Or even when there are even mildly strong attack cards.

Though as you say, none of this is compelling of its own right, but I'd say at least a fifth of Squire boards make these sorts of things somewhat viable.

On a fifth or Squire boards there may be attack cards worth gaining. But really, with trashing already at hand you won't need to trash Squires to get the $5 cards. It's those Estates taht stop you early on, and if you trash them you're fine. So use the Upgrade to turn the Estate into a Silver, keep the Squire for your engine and buy the attack card. I think the key word here is "somewhat." Just buying the cards is already "mostly" viable, so a somewhat vialbe trick that requires luck in essentially useless. Never mind the whole thing about not trimming you deck when you use your trashing ability to trash the Squire.
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Minotaur

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Re: Squire
« Reply #54 on: June 26, 2014, 11:36:48 pm »
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Trashing a Squire to get an attack is only sometimes good.  Certainly you want to be sure you're playing that attack at least once, if not twice.  But if you have +buys, getting a Squire or two here and there can help.  It's usually difficult to have too many Squires, so it shouldn't be that hard to force a mid-game trasher collision or two while having a Squire or two left over for +2 actions for your Rabble or Torturer or whatever.  This wouldn't be worth the trouble if Squire weren't already a decent $2 card that both helps you buy itself, and play terminal-draw Attack cards you might gain with it.  And it helps you recover from buying it instead of a Silver, though waiting a shuffle for it could hurt sometimes.

If I have $4 and two buys, there would probably have to be a strong $4 card on the board to make me skip double Squire (or a nice $2 card like Haven, depending on the board).

I would not pay $2 for an Estate you can trash to gain an Attack card, but that isn't what Squire is, either.  I agree that trying to TfB your Attack card for a Gold is a bit of unpredictable gymnastics that *could* happen that way, but not exactly a plan or anything.
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jomini

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Re: Squire
« Reply #55 on: June 28, 2014, 03:18:45 pm »
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Because you aren't getting a Gold via trashing Squire. You are going through a process that takes a really long time. Probably longer than it takes Transmute to get a Gold.


Not at all. Transmute requires you to:
1. Buy Potion.
2. Use a buy (early) on a 0P card.
3. Save a green.
4. Collide a green/Transmute
5. Use an action.

It slows you down in multiple ways. Squire, unlike Potion, is not a dead card. At worst it is a copper. This makes a big difference when you are going to engines, but unlike Transmute if you don't collide it, you still are pretty close to hitting $5. With Transmute you are carrying around three dead cards (potion, transmute, estate) waiting for the collision, with Squire you are carrying one at most. Transmute requires you use a $4 buy - something you virtually never see on a junk I-just-trashed-two-cards hand while Squire is just $2.


Quote
So I need a strong trasher, Upgrade/Remake/Remodel, Squire, a $5 attack to what? Get a Gold? at the earliest you get to use this Gold by your third shuffle. And that assumes you open Squire+trasher, collide the two turn 3 or 4, then collide the attack card the next shuffle. And if you open chapel, my guess is that there is a better source of money on the board than Gold. Something like Bridge or Conspirator or something. Even if there's Grand Market, my guess is it's faster to just thin your deck and buy the GM's with $. Keep you attack cards you buy, keep the squires to gain silver and for actions, now you have more components in less time because you spent your time using your trashers to thin as opposed to gaining Gold.
Okay Upgrade Chapel going for GM:
T3/T4: Most likely hands are something like CCCEChap/CCEEUpgradeC/C. We trash CCCEE, gain a Silver, buy a Silver.
Now our deck is C/CCCESSChapUpgrade
T5: CCCSChap - Trash CCC.
T6: EUpgradeSSChapC - Trash E -> S, trash C
T7: SSSUpgradeChap - Trash Chap (gain Silver) buy Gm.
T8: SSSSGmUpgrade - Buy Gm
T9: SSSSGmGmUpgrade - Buy Gm x2.
T10: SSSSGmGmGmGmUpgrade - buy Gm x2

Note The Upgrade was never "wasted" on a copper it always hit a leftover estate, the Chap never collided with the Upgrade and this gets us to a T6 Gm.

Now with Squire:
T3/T4: CCCEChap/CCEEUpgradeC/C. Trash CCCCE, buy Sqr. Deck: CCCEESqrUpgradeChap
T5: CCESqrChap- Trash CCESqr. Gain Sab
T6: UpgradeCESabChap: Upgrade (Sab -> Gm), trash CE
T7: UpgradeGmChap: Upgrade (Chap -> S) -> Gm buy Sqr x2.
T8: SqrSqrGmUpgradeS: Upgrade (Sqr -> S/Sab) -> Gm -> Sqr (gain S): Buy Gm.
T9: SqrSSUpgradeGmGmSab: Gm -> Gm -> Upgrade (Sab -> Gm) -> Sqr (gain S): buy Gm.
T10: SqrSSUpgradeGmGmGmGm: Gm x4 -> Upgrade Sqr (S/Sab): buy Gm x2.



Sqr gets its first Gm a turn earlier and ends on T10 with the same number of silvers plus a Sab that can either be played or turned into a freebie gold. And I gave both sets as close to the same shuffle luck on T5/6. Alternatively, Sqr has the option of skipping silver entirely and having far fewer stop cards at the expense of pounding Gm a turn or two slower. Upgrade/Chap/Sqr is just as fast as going for the money direct. Squire's silver gaining coupled with its cheap price and bonus gain on TfB lets you make up a slow T6/T7 with strong T8/T9. Now sure, if there is some better source of action-cash, then go for that ... but if the action cash costs $5 or $6 and your ultimate deck doesn't want silver, then Sqr can well be faster and better.


Quote
I've played I don't know, 3000 games combining IRL and goko. Dark Ages was my very first expansion too. I have never, ever seen squire trashing to gain attack cards to then upgrade them as anything but a cute trick you can do once in a while under specific circumstances.
Wonderful, and we care why again? 95% + of my Goko games don't require me to play in top form to win, IRL is higher with my wife and gaming friends, but you just don't need to play that well in the bulk of your games. The point is, shuffle luck sometimes hands you bad odds. You open Chapel/Upgrade and draw ChapEEEC on your first hand. Do you not get rid of the Chapels? Do you buy a Silver on 5C/Upgrade the next turn? Do you then save a copper on ChapCCCC the following turn? Squire is a tactical trick to remember when playing on boards where draw slots are less valuable (either through heavy trashing or easy drawing) than value gain.

Another easy example is something like Butcher/Scrying Pool. Will I mass Butcher coppers & estates to Squire? Yes. Will I, once I have a reliable draw deck with the Pools butcher a couple of Squires into Sabs and then Butcher those into Provinces? Yes. Particularly if there aren't other good +$ actions, I will take a turn delay over trying to fit gold into a Pool engine. Will I go engine with Butcher/Pool/Squire without an attack out at all? Sure, but if I'm deciding between two options of close value, the possibilities of even a crappy attack are worth recalling.


Quote

Exactly, it's a tactical trick. It happens, but really it's just so slow to turn you Squire into Golds. Transmute is bad, this is worse for Gold gaining.

No on your life. Transmute is massively slower. T3/4 to buy. T5/6/7 to get the gold. And it sucks down one of your better opening hands - a $4. It actively anti-synergizes with anything else that wants to preferentially trash estates (Salvager, Upgrade, Butcher, etc.) and is actively hurt by stronger trashing.

Squire shares none of that. At worst you carrying around one dead attack you are afraid to play. The better your trashing is, the easier it is to line up Tfb (Sqr -> Stuff); stuff -> better stuff. It works well with Salvager and Remake and you can even pick it up off of $2 hands (e.g. CCCCSteward).

If I'm deciding between something like Sqr engine/strong trashing and slog/Sqr I'm certainly going to see what options I have with attacks and TfB. In a close matchup between spamming Silver with Squire (or say Squire + B-crat), I can be swayed towards engine if there is a strong attack (e.g. Rabble) or a strong setup for leveraging a weak $5 attack (e.g. Butchering Sabs into provinces).




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That's why when I hit $7 early, I still buy the component. It does way more good than the gold. Like, way more. And if it's an attack, chances are you want to play it, not turn it into a gold. Buy the component, play the attack, Gold always comes later in an engine. Or even when there are even mildly strong attack cards. 

So why not get the Sqr/Component mix instead? Why not, if you then no longer need the Squire, but do need $, turn the Squire into a Gold?

Squire/scaling TfB/crappy $5 attack is a push towards going engine. If you do get $7/$3 instead of $5/$5 you can use Component/Squire to become Component/Gold rather than having just Component/Silver or Gold/Silver (or with a more flexible TfB, like Butcher, you can turn it into Component/Component).

Quote
On a fifth or Squire boards there may be attack cards worth gaining. But really, with trashing already at hand you won't need to trash Squires to get the $5 cards. It's those Estates taht stop you early on, and if you trash them you're fine. So use the Upgrade to turn the Estate into a Silver, keep the Squire for your engine and buy the attack card. I think the key word here is "somewhat." Just buying the cards is already "mostly" viable, so a somewhat vialbe trick that requires luck in essentially useless. Never mind the whole thing about not trimming you deck when you use your trashing ability to trash the Squire.
Depends on what I want to do. Take Remake, I can't buy actual value on a hand of RemakeEECC. So I can go E->S x2, buy Sqr. Sqr is no worse than a copper and with Remake having just punching two of three E -> S, I'm really unlikely to draw CCCESqr. However going Sqr -> attack is quite likely. Sqr here is literally competing against buy nothing on the inevitable $2 hands Remake gives you regularly. Buying able to get something out of those $2 is pretty good. And again even as a crappy Necropolis, Squire is not bad on these types of boards.

Regarding the deck thinning thing, eh not if the attack has draw. I have a hand of SquireRemakeSCC. Okay what are my options? Well I could:
1. Skip the Remake and gain a silver/buy a Margrave.
2. Skip the Remake and buy Margrave.
3. Remake CC
4. Remake CC buy a Sqr
5. Remake CC buy a S
6. Remake SqrC buy Sqr, gain Margrave, gain Silver.
7. Remake SqrC, gain Margrave/Silver, buy Silver

Option 1 nets me -1 cards, -1 a, and +$2 effectively.
Option 2 nets me -2 cards, -1 a, and +$0
Option 3 nets me -2 cards, +0 a, and -$2
Option 4 nets me -1 cards, +1 a, and -$1
Option 5 nets me -1 cards, +0 a, and +$0
Option 6 nets me -2 cards, +0 a, and +$1
Option 7 nets me -2 cards, -1 a, and +$2

For + 3 card attacks, almost invariably the move that makes your ability to draw deck go up the fastest is to kill the estates and then to preferentially turn Sqr into attacks and buy more Sqrs rather than just dumping coppers. Yeah luck can change if this actually works, but on balance I'm going to spend most of my plays on option 4 (if I'm deficient on action balance) and option 6 (if I'm about where I want to be on balance or expect to get there before the shuffle) with a few shots of option 7 nearing game end when I'm looking at getting $16 in deck total vs just $15 (or similar breakpoints). Your expected time between shuffles is the same if you burn two cards or you had (net) 2 draw. If I have something more useful than silver at $3 (like a village or maybe even Great Hall), then trashing the Squire, gaining a cantrip, gaining the Attack and buying a replacement Squire makes deck effectively thinner than just junking the copper (we'd have an option 8 of -3 cards, +0 actions, and -$2 which is obviously better than just trashing CC - option 3).

And while something like Remake is good here, even stuff like Steward or Chapel can make Squire stronger this way. I open Chapel/Silver. I hit ChapelSilverCCC, well that sucks - no attack for me and I have all those crappy estates ... but I get the Squire while tossing coppers. I then have the option of making a SCCSqrChap hand later into Sqr/Attack - and net trashing 2C or trashing 2C and buying Sqr or S.


Margrave, Torturer, and especially Rabble all make a strong case for killing the Squire - they very often make your deck effectively smaller than just trashing a C instead. Minion and Scrying Pool are special cases, but can make it massively better to trash the Squire than the coppers and just buy your way to $5. Cultist, Gship, and the odd Knight are less persuasive, but they can be the right move if you have a good $3.

About a fifth of boards with Squire are ones where the on-trash is something to consider. If Squire/trashing/attack is already a no-brainer, then we are talking about tactical play. What is the best way to gain the attacks. I found that be non-obvious. Is it better to open Potion/Silver or Trasher/Squire on a Pool board? Not an easy call. If I'm got some other potion, like Apothecary, that goes towards getting Pools with a Potion even if I have to delay trasher purchase. If I have a strong enough setup, I may just forget potion entirely (e.g. Remake/Scheme/Goons/Pool is a 0 potion game where I spam Squires and remake them into Schemes/Goons after I get the first Pool off my Squires). Likewise, if I come down to end game, what is a better shot with a spare $3 bucks if I need to dip into the duchies? Going for Silver for more buying power? Getting an estate for tie breaking if I make even on duchies & provinces? Or grabbing an extra Squire so I can trash it to a $5, draw the attack, and then trash it into a duchy?
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KingZog3

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Re: Squire
« Reply #56 on: June 29, 2014, 07:12:10 pm »
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Quote
I've played I don't know, 3000 games combining IRL and goko. Dark Ages was my very first expansion too. I have never, ever seen squire trashing to gain attack cards to then upgrade them as anything but a cute trick you can do once in a while under specific circumstances.
Wonderful, and we care why again? 95% + of my Goko games don't require me to play in top form to win, IRL is higher with my wife and gaming friends, but you just don't need to play that well in the bulk of your games.

Um, if you're trying to make an argument that Squire trashing into attack card into Gold is a good thing to do, it actually has to be a good thing to do. Not good in the sense of "I don't play well" kind of good, but like actually good. Sure, I can win by buying only villages against Serf Bot, but that doesn't make it a good strategy.

I think my point is that it's not that you shouldn't do all this Squire trashing stuff. Of course in the examples you give I'd trash the Squire for attack cards. But what I'm also saying is that this doesn't happen that often. Between simply buying cards faster than trashing and gaining and $5 attack cards you actually want to keep and play, Gold gaining through TfB and Squire is just not that good. And when this does happen, I probably don't want Gold anyway because there is a strong engine anyway. You're overselling the amazingness of turning a Squire into a Gold over multiple shuffles.
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silverspawn

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Re: Squire
« Reply #57 on: June 29, 2014, 09:14:50 pm »
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Trashing squire to gain attack cards to remodel them is definitely a good strategy on the some boards, but I doubt that it's good on a lot of boards. You'd need a lot of things to come together, like procession/upgrade/an engine supporting them/nothing better going on.

jomini

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Re: Squire
« Reply #58 on: June 30, 2014, 01:31:13 am »
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Um, if you're trying to make an argument that Squire trashing into attack card into Gold is a good thing to do, it actually has to be a good thing to do.
It actually is a good thing to do in some cases. Open Upgrade/Chapel. Hit CEEEChap on T3. Upgrade is just going to kill a copper and it takes, at most, one extra turn to Chapel all your crap if you grab Squire on T4.

Likewise, if there is no action cash and I reach mid game with really strong draw (such that draw slots are cheap but cash is not), then yeah I might well be able to buy a Squire this turn and next turn Upgrade the Squire to a Silver and upgrade the attack to a Gold and then draw everything into hand. How many boards are like that? Well considering that a decent number of the strong drawing boards have things like Margrave, Pool, Rabble, etc. around they aren't exactly uncommon when Squire can gain attacks. Say I have Remake with Village/Smithy. I draw deck and have $6 to spend. I can buy a gold. Next turn I can buy a gold and a village (need overdraw of 1 to get to $9). Next turn after that I can get two golds (need overdraw of 2 to get to $12).

I instead buy 2 Squires (need an overdraw of 2). Next turn I buy a Smithy (net +2 cards), Remake both Squires to Villages. Turn after that, I Remake both attacks to gold, and then draw them playing my Village/Smithy. I buy two more golds.

Net after three turns:
No Squire: Four golds (now I'm in 2 province territory), 1 village.
Squire: Four golds, 2 villages, 1 smithy.



 
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Not good in the sense of "I don't play well" kind of good, but like actually good. Sure, I can win by buying only villages against Serf Bot, but that doesn't make it a good strategy.
My point is, you don't even have a remotely accurate baseline. Squire trashing is faster than transmute - it doesn't take an opening buy, it doesn't compete with trashing your estates, it needs to carry one card until collision. You can get away with being this bad at gauging speed because you can beat a lot of 4000+ people pretty easily without ever even considering if using scaling TfB with Squire is a good shot.

Quote
I think my point is that it's not that you shouldn't do all this Squire trashing stuff. Of course in the examples you give I'd trash the Squire for attack cards. But what I'm also saying is that this doesn't happen that often.
Oh get over it. Squire comes up - itself, in less than 5% of games. Of those a vanishingly small number will be something like Gardens or Feodums where some of Squire's strongests synergies show. Nothing in Dominion happens that often. Squire/$5 attack/scaling TfB is more likely than Squire/Feodums, yet we'd consider anything that doesn't mention the latter on grounds of "doesn't happen all that often" deficient.

Quote
Between simply buying cards faster than trashing and gaining and $5 attack cards you actually want to keep and play, Gold gaining through TfB and Squire is just not that good. And when this does happen, I probably don't want Gold anyway because there is a strong engine anyway. You're overselling the amazingness of turning a Squire into a Gold over multiple shuffles.
I use Gold here because it is a common card with an easy to approximate value. If I want to keep and play the cards, that is just evidence that trashing Squire for attacks is valid of its own right - something people seem to be discounting.

You can do the same sorts of things to gain much needed components instead. The game that I know Squire trashing was a strong play was getting Hunting grounds out at $6. Spending $2, playing two non-terminal $5 cards and getting out $9 in value for two draw slots is pretty strong. You can just as easily butcher unwanted attacks into power $5's. Salvage them for cash. Or Forge a Silver + attack/Squire + Silver + Silver into a Province.

The ultimate point is that Squire means flexibility when you can start trashing it. Collide SCCCChap? Buy a Squire, maybe get the attack you really wanted on T5 (rather than hoping T6 hits $5 with an average value of <$1). Hit $7 right as the engine is about to kick in? Get a Squire/Component and trash the Squire for a $3/4 you want, maybe play Sab a time or two, and then convert the Sab into something useful (like say Graverob it into a Province). Even if, on average, buying direct is faster, Squire gives you options that aren't there otherwise when shuffle luck hits differently.

This, in turn tips the scales more towards Squire in an engine using scaling TfB and against other options - like Alt-VP slogs (at which Squire is very good)or using non-scaling TfB (Upgrade vs Junk dealer tips towards Upgrade when Squire is an option for busted hands). You can claim this is all trivial, but when people think the baseline for Squire and scaling TfB is worse than Transmute for a Gold, something is horridly wrong.
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jomini

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Re: Squire
« Reply #59 on: June 30, 2014, 01:32:49 am »
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Trashing squire to gain attack cards to remodel them is definitely a good strategy on the some boards, but I doubt that it's good on a lot of boards. You'd need a lot of things to come together, like procession/upgrade/an engine supporting them/nothing better going on.

Well look, how many boards are going to have Squire at all? How many of them are going to have say Squire/Gardens? The stuff you need to line up for Squire/TfB/attacks to be useful is far more likely than Squire/Gardens.
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silverspawn

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Re: Squire
« Reply #60 on: June 30, 2014, 05:29:30 am »
+3

Trashing squire to gain attack cards to remodel them is definitely a good strategy on the some boards, but I doubt that it's good on a lot of boards. You'd need a lot of things to come together, like procession/upgrade/an engine supporting them/nothing better going on.

Well look, how many boards are going to have Squire at all? How many of them are going to have say Squire/Gardens? The stuff you need to line up for Squire/TfB/attacks to be useful is far more likely than Squire/Gardens.
uh, no, squire/gardens is far more likely to be a thing than squire/trash to gain expensive attacks/remodel them into something useful

terminalCopper

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Re: Squire
« Reply #61 on: June 30, 2014, 10:40:17 am »
+2

... far more likely than Squire/Gardens.

The chance to have squire and gardens on board is: (202 choose 8 ) / (204* choose 10)= 0.00217328311,
in average this occurs every (204 choose 10)/(202 choose 8 )  = 460 games.

Open Upgrade/Chapel.

The chance to hit 5/2 on a board including squire, upgrade and chapel: 1/6 * (201 choose 7) / (204* choose 10)=0.0000143451,
you need to play 69710 games to get there. Maybe 200000 games if you need a strong attack among the 7 remaining cards. And maybe a million games if you want a useful $6 like grand market to come along (gold usually isn't that strong in these scenarios, as KingZog pointed out.)


Sure, these numbers don't prove you to be wrong in general. They just want to give you an idea why a couple of experienced posters are saying things like


I think my point is that it's not that you shouldn't do all this Squire trashing stuff.[...] I'm also saying is that this doesn't happen that often.


*Both calculations ignored Young Witch.
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KingZog3

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Re: Squire
« Reply #62 on: June 30, 2014, 11:34:36 am »
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I think my point is that it's not that you shouldn't do all this Squire trashing stuff.[...] I'm also saying is that this doesn't happen that often.

*Both calculations ignored Young Witch.

True, but I mean, that's still not going to change things enough to change the argument.
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enfynet

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Re: Squire
« Reply #63 on: June 30, 2014, 12:11:22 pm »
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While we're on the subject, I did miraculously manage the Watchtower-Squire-Familiar-Goons opening IRL. Maybe I should try that Turn4 solution as well.
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jomini

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Re: Squire
« Reply #64 on: June 30, 2014, 04:31:08 pm »
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Thanks for a textbook example of how to do statistical analysis either dishonestly or poorly.

What I, explicitly said is Squire, scaling TfB, and attacks. We are comparing the frequency of two sets of boards, both include Squire, so we can drop it from our calculations and just use 9 kingdom piles, ignoring Young Witch and Black market for simplicity.

How many scaling TfB's are there? Remodel, Apprentice, Upgrade, Remake, Forge, Develop, Expand, Bishop, Trader, Graverobber, Procession, Butcher, Stonemason, and Governor. I'll skip Trader as being completely unwieldy, but that means we have 13 cards that fit the scaling TfB bill. So what are the odds that a board with Squire will contain at least one of them? 1 - odds that a board has none of them. So what is that? 194 out of 205 (I'm using the 206 count with Prince as listed in the other forum, minus one for Squire already be taken) are the odds it won't be in pile 2 (squire being pile one), 193/205 for the 3rd pile and so on. 57.5% of Squire boards won't have scaling TfB; 42.5% will.

Okay so how many of those boards will also have an attack? Roughly speaking that is just the odds that any of the seven other piles has at least one attack in it. I'll just do it up for $5 or > attacks: Witch, Minion, Sab, Torturer, Gship, Mountebank, Rabble, Goons, Jester, Margrave, Cultist, Rogue, Pillage, Knights, and Soothesayer. So the odds that pile three (order not mattering) is not a $5 attack when pile 1 is Squire and pile 2 is a scaling TfB? 189/204. Odds that none of the other 8 piles are $5 or > attacks when you have Squrie and scaling TfB? 53.7%. Thus of boards with Squire and one scaling TfB, 46.3% have at least one $5 attack or better.

Roughly then, 19.7% of Squire boards have both scaling TfB and $5 attacks.



95.6% of Squire boards will not have gardens. 4.4% will. Thus, exactly as I said,  the combination of Squire, scaling TfB, and $5 attacks is more common than the combination of Squire and Gardens.


Now will all of those be viable? No. But neither will all the Squire/Gardens boards. A strong engine with Sab in it can utterly destroy a Squire/Gardens deck; only Silvers protect the Gardens and if you are gaining Silvers, Squire is not that great a Gardens enabler (maybe B-crat level at best).

But it is more complicated because one of the big reasons not to combine Squire & TfB, and go for Gold is that just gaining the attacks are better. Rabble? Almost without question it is economical to use Squire as +buy, +action, and opportunistically get Rabble. Minion? on what planet wouldn't I be Butchering estates to Squires (or Minions), coppers to Squires, and Squires to Minion/Squire or Minion/Minion? The fact that Gold can ever be competitive means that just trashing for attacks you want to mass is much better. Using Forge/Attack/Squire to gain value quick, again can be faster than building cash to buy your provinces (particularly if you aren't positioned to use the Forge to thin the Province pile quicker). Remake/Squire is just really good for building up engines if I have something I want in quantity at 3. Another complication is that Squire is just good to keep.

Now if we go down to the $4 attacks where I can do things like Remake two Squires into Fishing Villages, gain two Spies, next turn Remake two spies into two Libraries. Spending $4, playing a $ twice, and using up two draw slots to get $16 worth of very useful Engine components beats the crap out of buying Silver, Fishing village, or not trashing the Squires.

So why don't people need to use this to win in their 30,000 or whatever games? Because a board that includes attacks, scaling TfB, and Squire is already, by definition, a very rich board. You have a lot of strong combos sitting there with anything. Do you have draw? You have the potential to go for a draw engine. Do you have alt-VP? You have potential to go silver splurging. Do you have Peddler? Now there is good way to use a completely different Squire/Scaling TfB synergy.

So, yes, I remain completely unconvinced by appeals to elite authority. As a benchmark Squire -> scaling TfB -> Gold just is nowhere near as slow as Transmute; the fact that a good player thinks it is says that good players don't even need to know how fast the on-trash option is - the board is rich enough for a win most of the time even without it.

Squire/scaling TfB/attack is much more common than Squire/Gardens, but the latter is going to be dominant much more often than the former. How often will taking the TfB option prove to be better than others? Maybe 10% of the time it shows up strong players will acquire an edge against other strong players by going for it. How often will Squire/Gardens offer an edge to one of those same players? Never. If Squire/Gardens is worth doing, only the rarest of boards won't also have it being dominant. 


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silverspawn

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Re: Squire
« Reply #65 on: July 01, 2014, 12:37:35 pm »
0

[...]
that's nice, but my post was based on experience. I have considered a squire-tfb thing before, but I'm not sure I've ever done it. Mabye once. I've done squrie/gardens about 5 times though. but i see why you're not convinced! that reminds me of lookout...

Quote
A strong engine with Sab in it can utterly destroy a Squire/Gardens deck
man, sab is awful. it's way more likely that an engine is simply faster than squire/gardens rather then being the better choice because sab would threaten the gardens deck.

KingZog3

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Re: Squire
« Reply #66 on: July 01, 2014, 01:51:21 pm »
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[...]
that's nice, but my post was based on experience. I have considered a squire-tfb thing before, but I'm not sure I've ever done it. Mabye once. I've done squrie/gardens about 5 times though. but i see why you're not convinced! that reminds me of lookout...

Quote
A strong engine with Sab in it can utterly destroy a Squire/Gardens deck
man, sab is awful. it's way more likely that an engine is simply faster than squire/gardens rather then being the better choice because sab would threaten the gardens deck.

Yeah, a lot of things may sound amazing in theory, but in practice they are not very good. And of course it depends on who you're playing with. Your IRL opponents may not be that strong, so in that case TfB+Squire may be a good thing. Like silverspawn said, he's reminded of lookout and how he got into a big argument saying it was better than ambassador (That's what you said right? I wasn't a part of that discussion). I've said crazy things too.

And yeah, Sab is not a good example because the time where it's good is usually when KC or TR are around. Otherwise it's to slow. If you go sab, he just uses Squire to gain Silver and doesn't care that you took Sab. Sure it's worse, but you took a worse strategy too by going with Sab. Plus he'll just empty the Estate faster when you hit Silver and Gardens.
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silverspawn

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Re: Squire
« Reply #67 on: July 01, 2014, 01:56:50 pm »
+1

funny enough i dont think i ever actually said it like that...

KingZog3

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Re: Squire
« Reply #68 on: July 01, 2014, 04:21:28 pm »
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funny enough i dont think i ever actually said it like that...

That would be funny if you never actually said it. :P
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silverspawn

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Re: Squire
« Reply #69 on: July 01, 2014, 06:17:19 pm »
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my original claim was that it's "the best 3$ trasher", but amb doesn't trash :) and then I was mostly arguing that you can't know that amb is better, because people kept comparing it to amb

for what its worth i still think lookout is slightly underrated.

jomini

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Re: Squire
« Reply #70 on: July 02, 2014, 12:44:33 pm »
0

[...]
that's nice, but my post was based on experience. I have considered a squire-tfb thing before, but I'm not sure I've ever done it. Mabye once. I've done squrie/gardens about 5 times though. but i see why you're not convinced! that reminds me of lookout...


Yet I have done it and won against folks who are by far and away better players than 4000+ on Goko (that being the most common cutoff point where folks are afraid to play below when I last visited Goko).

I mean the fact that you've done it "maybe once" tells me that this cannot possibly be pushing you to eke out the maximum on a board. Procession, itself should be viable with Squire once every 2000-2500 games. Wt should be viable around once every 750. Squire/Rabble/Strong trashing works much of the time (crappy village/strong trashing/Rabble is quite viable on its own, being able to get Rabbles for $2 is just gravy). And so on.


Quote
Quote
A strong engine with Sab in it can utterly destroy a Squire/Gardens deck
man, sab is awful. it's way more likely that an engine is simply faster than squire/gardens rather then being the better choice because sab would threaten the gardens deck.
Sab is utterly amazing against coppers/$2/Gardens. Every play of Sab kills a Garden in those circumstances. Assuming your opponent tries to rush, they will end up holding 10 starting cards, 8 Gardens, 8 Estates and 10 Squires, if they pull 14 coppers (half a copper per card bought) that makes each Garden worth 5. Every single play of Sab then is a net swing of at least 4 VP. You can counter this by using Silver gaining, but you need as many Silvers as Gardens to bring the Sab down to a two VP swing; where playing the Sab twice is still better than a Duchy.

Herbalist, Candlestick maker, Pawn, Hamlet, and Squire all are sometimes viable with Gardens; they are all vulnerable to Sab, particularly in a slog setup. Now sure if there are viable $3 or higher cards to enable Gardens then you just add those in and Sab starts being pathetic.

Against most decks Sab does suck entirely, but when you have very high odds of killing VP every turn it changes the dynamic. Ever more marginal engines become viable - if only by making the Garden player take some silvers and lowering the terminal point threshold the engine has to cross.

If you wait to get silvers until I buy the Sab, then I wait until you have just shuffled your bloated deck (say when you have 4 or 5 Gardens). Any silvers you gain hit the discard and I have extremely good odds of killing two or more Gardens (better than Kc/Sab in an engine vs engine dual of killing a Province) before I start tripping on Silver. Killing two Gardens is better than a Province.



Yeah, a lot of things may sound amazing in theory, but in practice they are not very good. And of course it depends on who you're playing with. Your IRL opponents may not be that strong, so in that case TfB+Squire may be a good thing. Like silverspawn said, he's reminded of lookout and how he got into a big argument saying it was better than ambassador (That's what you said right? I wasn't a part of that discussion). I've said crazy things too.

My irl gaming group is better, by far than most of the leader board on Goko. Largely, Goko, like ISO before it, rewards you most heavily for playing well rapidly. You can build your rank much higher by playing significantly faster while trading off small marginal improvements to your win rate.

Quote
And yeah, Sab is not a good example because the time where it's good is usually when KC or TR are around. Otherwise it's to slow. If you go sab, he just uses Squire to gain Silver and doesn't care that you took Sab. Sure it's worse, but you took a worse strategy too by going with Sab. Plus he'll just empty the Estate faster when you hit Silver and Gardens.

Don't be absurd. The only thing that matters with Sab is what are the odds that it will hit various cards. In a deck clogged with medium values cards (e.g. silvers, villages, draw, golds, and provinces) your odds of hitting his VP are low, even with Tr/Sab. Most likely you will kill a Silver & a component. a component. Say they have 2 silvers, 4 villages, 1 +buy, 2 Tr, 1 attacks, 1 trasher, 5 draw, 2 golds, and 2 provinces. On average each Sab will hit his provinces just 1/10, going to Tr-> Sab hits is just 1/5. When you do hit a province, the VP loss is just 3 VP (Province -> Duchy) and next turn it goes up to 2/11 or 4/11 with Tr (when he has 4 Provinces). In an engine with Tr, Sab is having a good day when it kills 2 VP a turn on average.

Against Squire/Gardens, the only cards that protect the Gardens are Silvers. If you have a Silver for every Garden, that just means a Garden dies every other turn on average. When a Garden dies, it drops at least 3VP and more likely 4 or 5. Also fun, eac h silver means you decrease the card count by 1 (it could have been two coppers with +buys), so having 8 silvers means 8 fewer cards and pretty much 1 less VP from Gardens even if I never buy the Sab. Towards end game, Sab competes with Duchy and killing two Gardens (or forcing all of them to be 1 point less valuable) is vastly better than Duchy. Either Squire dips into Silvers before they get Gardens and bloat their deck (likely a -8 or -16 VP move) or they are vulnerable for a shuffle of a bloated deck.

This is why Princess/Sab can be a thing. You skip all the keep mid-range stuff (Tournaments, villages, silvers, etc.) and gun down Provinces, Duchies, $5 actions, and the odd Gold. Given how many fewer cards in a Tournament deck (or one that can compete well with it) are $5 and up, you get hits at a rate comparable to or better than Tr-> Sab.

Giving out an Estate for a Garden does make the game 1/2 a turn (as Squire/Gardens should be averaging $4/2 buys most hands) faster; on the flip side with 5 VP Gardens (something you should expect if they go Squire/Gardens and binge on copper) you just dropped the number of provinces you need by just about 1 (the estate in a rush scenario was always going to end up in his deck, so you are killing 5VP vs 1/2 a turn less of building; not a bad trade at all).

Oh, and word to the wise, when you are trying to talk up your experience it is best to actually know how the interaction you are pontificating on works. Sab hitting a Silver can gain exactly 3 cards: Poor House, Copper or Curse. Estate is worth $1 less than Silver and you will never get a an estate from Sab off a Silver.

This is why I don't buy your fallacious appeals to authority. You claim to never have seen the TfB options as viable, but you don't get basic card interactions correct. I think that merits a bit of skepticism about how your experience is informative about what is generally viable.

Regardless, the point is still the same. A number of Squire/Gardens boards will have much stronger and dominant strategies. Beggar/Gardens for instance is massively better. Rebuild. Library/strong trashing/other +action/+cash cards. Attacks that discard down to 3/engine. Horse Traders/Duke. The point still is the same, scaling TfB/attacks/Squire will show up a lot more than Squire/Gardens. Both are wildly statistically unlikely when looking at all possible games, and neither of them are so dominant that they are auto-plays. Both are things to consider about Squire and things that inform you which way to go on things. Gardens
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silverspawn

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Re: Squire
« Reply #71 on: July 02, 2014, 12:53:38 pm »
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okay, how about we stay kind and just do a sample match? I propose this Kingdom:

Squire, Gardens, Saboteur, Village, Smithy, Feast, Vault, Haven, Stash, Harvest

I play Squire/Gardens, you play an engine that tries to stop me by using saboteur - ?

KingZog3

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Re: Squire
« Reply #72 on: July 02, 2014, 01:03:37 pm »
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This is why I don't buy your fallacious appeals to authority. You claim to never have seen the TfB options as viable, but you don't get basic card interactions correct. I think that merits a bit of skepticism about how your experience is informative about what is generally viable.

I will no longer discuss the Squire subject with you. You have lowered yourself to personal insult. I've never said my authority is better, just that I've played a lot. I trust the physicist on physics related topics because he has experience with the subject. You may also have authority in Dominion, its not exclusive. And I never said you shouldn't do TfB Squire stuff, just that it is not a strategy on its own and even when you can do it, it hasn't had an impact in my games for me or my opponents.

EDIT: And the fact that I made a mistake by saying Silver>Estate with Sab is just a mistake. It's not grounds to say I don't know anything.
« Last Edit: July 02, 2014, 01:04:38 pm by KingZog3 »
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theory

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Re: Squire
« Reply #73 on: July 02, 2014, 01:12:15 pm »
+3

Let's stop this discussion topic and move on.
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KingZog3

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Re: Squire
« Reply #74 on: July 02, 2014, 01:14:42 pm »
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Let's stop this discussion topic and move on.

Hooray for the intervention of authority!
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