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Author Topic: Witch/Copper vs. Witch/Nothing?  (Read 4617 times)

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Warfreak2

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Witch/Copper vs. Witch/Nothing?
« on: June 07, 2013, 07:49:19 am »
+1

(similarly, Cultist)

If you have a 5/2 split, and there's Witch but no $2s, you get the Witch. But if you draw the Witch on turn 4, there's only one more card in your deck - when you play your Witch, it triggers a reshuffle, so you won't see your Witch again soon.

If you bought a Copper instead of passing, that turn 4 Witch wouldn't be a problem; you play it, draw the remaining two cards without shuffling, so you play it again sooner. And the Copper is improving the average of your deck, in a game where you're going to get Curses later anyway. Thoughts?
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DStu

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Re: Witch/Copper vs. Witch/Nothing?
« Reply #1 on: June 07, 2013, 07:53:56 am »
0

I'm pretty sure we have simulated this and Witch/nothing > Witch/Copper at least for Witch-BigMoney. I don't see any reason how the Copper should help with engines, except edge cases.  Only scenario I can imagine where the Copper should help is go slogging like Witch into Duchy/Duke, or Gardens or Witch into Philosopher's Stone or Counting House.

similarly, Cultitist.

Edit: The sim says: NO (52:45) double Witch vs double Witch+1 Copper starting from 5/2.
« Last Edit: June 07, 2013, 07:58:12 am by DStu »
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Qvist

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Re: Witch/Copper vs. Witch/Nothing?
« Reply #2 on: June 07, 2013, 07:56:52 am »
0

Yeah, we discussed this many many times.

It's right that Witch misses the reshuffle if you draw it on turn 4, but on the other side if you draw it on turn 3 there's a small chance to draw it on turn 4 and higher probability to draw it on turn 5.

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Re: Witch/Copper vs. Witch/Nothing?
« Reply #3 on: June 07, 2013, 08:12:00 am »
0

I would add that, sure, if you get it t4 it misses a reshuffle, but *that* reshuffle is going to be pretty small anyway, so it's not such a big deal.

Warfreak2

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Re: Witch/Copper vs. Witch/Nothing?
« Reply #4 on: June 07, 2013, 08:19:25 am »
0

OK.

Cultist does seem a little different, though - Cultist/Copper means you already have $8 in your deck, and unlike Witches, you can play as many Cultists as you draw. Has that been simulated too?
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DStu

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Re: Witch/Copper vs. Witch/Nothing?
« Reply #5 on: June 07, 2013, 08:23:27 am »
0

Cultist does seem a little different, though - Cultist/Copper means you already have $8 in your deck, and unlike Witches, you can play as many Cultists as you draw. Has that been simulated too?

Geronmioo's sim doesn't speak Dark Ages, at least not the published version.
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-Stef-

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Re: Witch/Copper vs. Witch/Nothing?
« Reply #6 on: June 07, 2013, 09:24:03 am »
+4

If you open 5/2 for witch/- there is actually a huge difference between drawing it t3 or t4. This difference is far greater then the difference between 5/2 and 4/3 openings.
If you draw it t3, you can buy something with your 6-card-hand, and then shuffle that and the witch back in immediately. You have a very good chance of playing witch for the second time on t5, and a small chance to play it again t4. Never worse then t6 though.
If you draw it t4, you're lucky if you play it again on t6, but t7 or t8 is also very realistic. t9 would be bad luck but possible.
And now I'm still ignoring the impact of curses, which only makes the difference bigger.

Suppose we both open 5/2, and we somehow magically are guaranteed to draw our Witch on t4. Then I would rather open Witch/Copper then Witch/-, to prevent the bad reshuffle from happening.

However, we don't get this magical guarantee at all. I could also draw the Witch on t3, and then I really really want that reshuffle. I'd estimate the upside of t3 witch without copper just about cancels the t4 witch with copper. However, the copper also doubles the chance that I draw the witch t5, which is pretty bad. And of course it adds a copper to my deck; in general a bad card and also I don't like early increases to my deck-cycle. I want to buy cards that are better then copper and I want to see them often.

Conclusion: opening Witch/- is much better then Witch/Copper, although sometimes on t4 I wish I could go back in time.

...with which witch I wish...
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Warfreak2

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Re: Witch/Copper vs. Witch/Nothing?
« Reply #7 on: June 07, 2013, 09:49:11 am »
0

However, the copper also doubles the chance that I draw the witch t5

That is an incredibly good point!
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ragingduckd

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Re: Witch/Copper vs. Witch/Nothing?
« Reply #8 on: June 07, 2013, 11:41:46 am »
0

Conclusion: opening Witch/- is much better then Witch/Copper, although sometimes on t4 I wish I could go back in time.

I agree with your analysis of the possible outcomes, but I'm not convinced that this conclusion follows.

The T4 Witch (for which the Copper is good) has the same ~43% probability as the T3 Witch (for which it's bad).  The Copper (almost) doubles the chance of the terrible T5 Witch, but that's only from 1/11 to 2/12 (+7.5%).  The Copper also increases my money density for the first two shuffles or more, depending on how sloggy the board is.

The differences are all slight enough that I'd hesitate to draw a definite conclusion without a more quantitative analysis.
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Re: Witch/Copper vs. Witch/Nothing?
« Reply #9 on: August 15, 2013, 05:21:40 pm »
0

Hi all

quote from gokodom:
Quote
If bought as opener w/ cultist (5/2) (or other power 2-card drawer) it decreases chance that cultist will miss a shuffle. But with Cultist/- you have chance to play cultist faster.
With Cultist/FG you have 5/6 chance to not miss a shuffle.
With Cultist/- you have only 5/11 for not missing shuffle. But in that 5/11 you will shuffle T4 already w/ cultist possibly 2.
What do you think is better? Cultist/FG IMHO lowers variance and also highers EV, but I'm not really sure.

I think that we can agree on lower variance for Cultist/Copper, right? So question is about EV and how it differs for copper/FG and Witch/Cultist. And of course 1st/2nd player.
To be honest I'd be perfectly ok with conclusion like this: As First player go for W/C, as second W/-. It could really make sense.

It would be really great if someone can bring final desicion about this, either be simulating it somehow or calculating some futher probabilities.

P.S.: Does double Witch playes slog/duchy here or goes for provinces? DWitch/copper could do little bit better in slogish game
Quote
The sim says: NO (52:45) double Witch vs double Witch+1 Copper starting from 5/2.
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popsofctown

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Re: Witch/Copper vs. Witch/Nothing?
« Reply #10 on: August 15, 2013, 06:03:58 pm »
0

Cultist draws 3 cards doesn't it?  God, it's so depressing that I don't really know.  I have Dark Ages in the closet, no one will play it with me.
I'm interested in Ghost Ship Copper and Vault Copper. 
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Re: Witch/Copper vs. Witch/Nothing?
« Reply #11 on: August 15, 2013, 06:05:06 pm »
0

2 cards.
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michaeljb

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Re: Witch/Copper vs. Witch/Nothing?
« Reply #12 on: August 15, 2013, 06:15:29 pm »
+1

3 cards when you trash it
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Powerman

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Re: Witch/Copper vs. Witch/Nothing?
« Reply #13 on: August 16, 2013, 11:51:06 pm »
+3

3 cards when you trash it

8 Cards, if you Apprentice it.  7 Cards, if you Procession it.  6 Cards, if you King's Court it.  4 Cards, if you Throne Room it.  3 Cards, if you trash it.  2 Cards, if you play it.
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PSGarak

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Re: Witch/Copper vs. Witch/Nothing?
« Reply #14 on: August 17, 2013, 01:08:40 am »
0

3 cards when you trash it

8 Cards, if you Apprentice it.  7 Cards, if you Procession it.  6 Cards, if you King's Court it.  4 Cards, if you Throne Room it.  3 Cards, if you trash it.  2 Cards, if you play it.
This raises the obvious question: How do you get it to draw exactly 5 cards? The only thing I can thing is Bridge/Highway + Apprentice, but that seems like cheating.
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Re: Witch/Copper vs. Witch/Nothing?
« Reply #15 on: August 17, 2013, 06:46:54 am »
0

3 cards when you trash it

8 Cards, if you Apprentice it.  7 Cards, if you Procession it.  6 Cards, if you King's Court it.  4 Cards, if you Throne Room it.  3 Cards, if you trash it.  2 Cards, if you play it.
This raises the obvious question: How do you get it to draw exactly 5 cards? The only thing I can thing is Bridge/Highway + Apprentice, but that seems like cheating.
5 cards if you Embassy it. 1 card if you Oasis it.
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Gveoniz

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Re: Witch/Copper vs. Witch/Nothing?
« Reply #16 on: August 17, 2013, 08:50:24 am »
+5

5 cards, if you masquerade it.
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