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[liopoil]

I just reread loop oils defenses and I actually really like them so I will unvote. I think later today or tomorrow I will look at robs, as I think he is in the scummiest position on the wagon and I'm getting kind of a scummy read from him.

yup, that's me, "loop oil"

scummiest person on which wagon? yours? isn't he the only one on your wagon?

[Voltaire]

I just reread loop oils defenses and I actually really like them so I will unvote. I think later today or tomorrow I will look at robs, as I think he is in the scummiest position on the wagon and I'm getting kind of a scummy read from him.

yup, that's me, "loop oil"

scummiest person on which wagon? yours? isn't he the only one on your wagon?

I assume he means nkirbit's.

[Voltaire]

Can we get the thread title changed to reflect that it's D2?

[mail-mi]

I just reread loop oils defenses and I actually really like them so I will unvote. I think later today or tomorrow I will look at robs, as I think he is in the scummiest position on the wagon and I'm getting kind of a scummy read from him.

yup, that's me, "loop oil"

scummiest person on which wagon? yours? isn't he the only one on your wagon?

I assume he means nkirbit's.

yep

[chairs]

liopoil - I understand the concept of policy votes, but exceptions to rules ought to be made, and SB's behaviour certainly seemed to warrant the exception, particularly as he's almost certainly town. (Obviously this is now eevee so we'll have some fun confirming that with the new reads).

eevee/spiritbears - I'm convinced (based on SB's play) that Eevee is town.  SB was so on tilt at the end that I don't see any chance that it was scum play.

so you disagree with my vote. why does this make me scummy? And you are dangerously sure of yourself on eevee/SB. scum can do crazy things...

I disagree with your vote and it feels like you're using a weak justification for it (albeit one that seems to line up with overall forum meta).  It's the combination.  TBH, would I lynch you today if I had to pick somebody? No.  It's not a strong enough scum-read for that in my head.  Does it feel a little scummy? Yes.

Robz888 - If he's not scum I might have to eat my hat.  Mostly my gut, I guess (although I've pointed out a few things that irk me in earlier posts).

There are no hats left on the Forum Games board; people who said that exact think have gobbled them all down after being proved wrong.

I'm being cute, but seriously. I, and lots of other people, have made "this is such a for-sure thing" bets all the time and been wrong, all the all the time. Someone back me up here.

It's okay, I brought my own   I'm honestly enjoying myself, so even if I'm wrong - hey, that just means I'm learning how you guys play, and maybe I can read you better next time, as well as learning a bit about how to not be forum dumb.  In the meantime, I'll find some steak sauce just in case.

[Eevee]

Okay, Eevee emerges.

yuma: Townread, I think is doing a lot of "useless" work, stuff that an interesting townie explores but a credithogging scum is likely to miss / not bother with.

Voltaire: Another active casebuilder, towny just based on content. No real meta read, is either a well playing townie or a hardworking mafia.

mail-mi: Oh mail-mi. Has a bunch of inconsistencies in behavior people view scummy, and seems to be willing to sheep most everything that moves. Eh, I see the case, but think scum-mailmi might maybe be trying a little harder.

chairs: Really hard to read due to relative lack of activity. I could see him as scum easily, but have nothing incriminating against him. Worried null?

liopoil: I see what yuma is "accusing" liopoil of, I do. But, lio has actually been getting it right a lot as town lately, and could really just be feeling confident about his value to town. I don't think liopoil is scum here.

mcmc: I remember very little of. Nothing sticking out is neutral maybe a tad on the scummier side I guess? I didn't read the day 1 "claim" as any sort of vt claim or townie tell. Just a musing about his thoughts of drawing JK and not getting to play it.

Hmm, I guess this is all. I don't feel I see what is what in this game clearly at all yet, hopefully it will start to get better with more discussion.

[yuma]

what about robz?

[mcmcsalot]

Eevee is obvi town

[Eevee]

what about robz?

I actually don't find him too scummy despite not suspecting you either. His worry about people sheeping you too much seems ok.

I did find his reaction to the reset scummy and weird way back when, but that's not a huge point.

[liopoil]

still don't get why eevee is obvi town.

[yuma]

Warning: about to do some theory discussion below...

I was doing some thinking for different game that I am considering hosting and started to think about "Follow the Cop" and how to prevent it. And since this game is on my mind I started thinking about it in this context... as such I realize that there may be a benefit of having a cop (if there is one) claim today.

Here is why:

- It is pretty obvious that we have either a doc or a JK because of the no-kill night.
- So this is completely dependent on us having a cop, which is what... 33% chance?
- If we have a doc then we are basically in "follow the cop" mode. Allowing the cop to investigate and divulge results each night/day and the doc to protect each night allowing the cop to live.
- If we have a JK then we aren't in "follow the cop" mode. The cop wouldn't be able to investigate if the JK jailed him, but he also wouldn't be night killed... Although in this scenario there is plenty of WIFOM for the mafia because they have to ask do they risk trying to kill the cop and having another No-kill night kill (especially because the first night they won't know whether or not we have a doc or a JK), so should the JK jail the cop? I don't know....

- There is the situation of a counter claim by mafia--or even them being the only cop claim... this is especially worrisome--but then we are just at a 50% chance of getting it right, and if we get it wrong certainly getting it right the next day. But the later situation where we don't have a cop but mafia claims cop and is the only claimant could be bad because we would all be willingly led by mafia (who we think is the cop).

- The last possibility is the worst.
- The second to last isn't as bad in that we would mislynch the cop, but still bad. But then at least we would have a correct lynch tomorrow.
- The other options of having a cop and a JK, isn't perfect, but is still pretty good because of the WIFOM implications... plus we would get a investigation result from last night that would help narrow things down today, as well as not lynching the cop today, so basically two ICs--except that if we only have one claimant it could be mafia claiming alone, but that is kinda on the risky side as if there is a cop it would guarantee a lynch of them either today or tomorrow...
- The best obviously is if we have a cop and a doc, because then we can move into "follow the cop" and hopefully use that method for the win. Of course everything falls apart if mafia gets lucky and NKs the doc or if town is really stupid and lynches the doc... So it isn't a perfect plan, hence my wondering if we should do it....

If people really don't want to discuss this, I am sorry, but I think this specific scenario is worth talking about because it could put town in an incredibly advantageous situation.

[liopoil]

SHHHHHH

I had already thought of all the above on my own, and I'm sure others have too. Scum probably did too, and yes, claiming could be a good idea, let's give the cop some of our confidence and let them make up their own mind. (I am not claiming not-cop).

[liopoil]

I mean, if we come to the conclusion "yes, the cop should claim!" then we potentially tell scum that there is no cop, letting them fakeclaim.

[yuma]

SHHHHHH

I had already thought of all the above on my own, and I'm sure others have too. Scum probably did too, and yes, claiming could be a good idea, let's give the cop some of our confidence and let them make up their own mind. (I am not claiming not-cop).

Ummmm.... No. I don't think we need to be all hush hush about this. It took me what ~ 3-4 days to think of this. I am not sure others would as well. Chairs is new for example.

What advantage does this give to scum that we are talking about it? I see none. As you say, scum probably already thought of it, so why not talk about it. Look... if we have a cop they get to decide. What I am suggesting is that there may be a scenario where the cop didn't realize this scenario existed or isn't sure what to do. I have all the confidence in the world, but talking about it this way is far better than someone coming out and saying... "{My friend}... well he is a cop. And if {my friend} were in this scenario, what would you want him to do..."

[yuma]

I mean, if we come to the conclusion "yes, the cop should claim!" then we potentially tell scum that there is no cop, letting them fakeclaim.

maybe... and that I guess is a concern. But a fakeclaim in this setup is a very dangerous thing to do. It isn't like ash's fake claim in mean girls. Which still got him lynched the day after, but in this game... it can mean immediate death if something goes wrong ruining the whole game. It is extremely risky. Hence why you like open setups so much lio...

[liopoil]

yes, but even in open setups fakeclaiming is often a good move. It is possible to catch scum in a lie in open setups, which is why I like them.

If I'm scum and have good reason to believe that there are good odds that there is no cop, I will heavily consider fakeclaiming. successful fakeclaiming can benefit scum in the same way that follow the cop can benefit town. Talking about this is too likely to let scum know that it's safe for them to fakeclaim.

[liopoil]

meh, I'm not sure. I guess yuma's post could help inform new people like chairs. And no damage has been done yes, unless scum have figured out if yuma and I are the cop or not (assuming yuma is town). I'm glad Yuma's post didn't come to a conclusion about whether the cop should claim or not, because that would be bad. what I'm worried about is deciding what the cop should do, and there is no cop. as long as we don't come close to deciding what optimal cop play would be, theory talk is fine.

[yuma]

meh, I'm not sure. I guess yuma's post could help inform new people like chairs. And no damage has been done yes, unless scum have figured out if yuma and I are the cop or not (assuming yuma is town). I'm glad Yuma's post didn't come to a conclusion about whether the cop should claim or not, because that would be bad. what I'm worried about is deciding what the cop should do, and there is no cop. as long as we don't come close to deciding what optimal cop play would be, theory talk is fine.

Yes, I specifically avoided making a conclusion. But I do think putting all the facts out there and allowing a cop if we have one to come to their own conclusion on what is the best move.

And really the best move might be to sit back and relax for a while and see if mafia is dumb enough to try a fakeclaim and then call them out on it afterward. I don't know. It might be.

There a lot of possibilities in this setup, which is why it is a really good one and one that we keep coming back to.

[liopoil]

yes, this setup isn't nearly as simple as it looks. (see what I did there?).

[mcmcsalot]

Eevee is obvi town

Yea not positive about that, I may have been quite under the influence at the time of that post. I do think he's town though, I thought sb was town.

[Robz888]

I think we should do it. I like plans like this. The best case scenario is really good, the worst case scenario is very unlikely, and the middle scenarios are OKAY.

[liopoil]

I think we should do it. I like plans like this. The best case scenario is really good, the worst case scenario is very unlikely, and the middle scenarios are OKAY.

[Voltaire]

Current reads:

Town:
lio
chairs
Eevee

Middling town:
mcmc

Neutral:
mail-mi
yuma

Middling scum:
Robz

[Robz888]

Yeah, let's just do it. 

I am the Cop.

I investigated Spiritbears. When we were both scum before the reset, I told him to act crazy and play dumb, to appear like his town self, and I got the idea in my head that that's what he was doing here, with that awful hammer. Nope, SB/Eevee is Town.

[Eevee]

Interesting!

I was about to chime in saying that scum fakeclaiming cop is BAD here, because if we only have 1 power role, it's going to be totally normal for that person not to die at night (usually the problem with scum's fake claim's - them continuing to live becomes a huge problem), so we could just lose the game because of that.

But okay, Robz didn't wait for everyone to chime in before claiming, so that makes me believe him a lot more. I think fakeclaim without "testing" if there are other cops is less likely of a scum play (and Robz's play, especially the certainty about me, makes sense for a cop).

So, put me in the tentatively believing Robz - camp - obviously barring any other claims which would change the situation totally.

If you are a jailkeeper/doctor and not responsible for last night's no kill, then you know that Robz is lying. Not relevant yet, but might be somewhere down the road.