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Author Topic: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 3)  (Read 97292 times)

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Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 1 start)
« Reply #700 on: July 02, 2013, 12:11:46 pm »

It's not the worst case in the world, just not enough to convince me to vote lio (or find him scummy). But it gives you some towncred for scumhunting.

If you're town, I just have to hope I can make a more compelling case and you'll switch away to avoid you voting for a town read of mine.
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Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 1 start)
« Reply #701 on: July 02, 2013, 12:13:27 pm »

I do find it interesting that robz is calling people out for sheeping me today, when he kinda sheeped me yesterday... Anyone find that compelling?
Is that what I was talking about when I said he was being scum!hypocritical? Only if he was kinda sheeping you yesterday...I don't remember if he was. All I remember is he wasn't willing to vote for you.
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Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 1 start)
« Reply #702 on: July 02, 2013, 12:24:28 pm »

One last thing that I forgot to mention when lio used the following quote:
I think it make spiritbears look really scummy because of his flip on nkirbit. Seems like scum who was like "I'm gonna be off-wagon, this'll be awesome!" then, "oh no, this mislynch might not go through without me. I really just want to get to night and mislynch townies, so I'll "change my mind"".

It also makes whoever was the alternative wagon(s) look bad. So that's Yuma, and maybe mail-mi/chairs right?

[snip mean girls example] "Well nkiribit was wrong... must be because we were right about someone else, cause there is no way we were that totally off day1!"
Well, to me I'm willing to look at mail-mi (unhelpful town play), you (inscrutable), and chairs (lurking? but maybe V/LA) anyway, so it doesn't strike me as suspicious. We'll see what lio has to say about the three of them, if anything.
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yuma

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 1 start)
« Reply #703 on: July 02, 2013, 12:29:08 pm »

I do find it interesting that robz is calling people out for sheeping me today, when he kinda sheeped me yesterday... Anyone find that compelling?
Is that what I was talking about when I said he was being scum!hypocritical? Only if he was kinda sheeping you yesterday...I don't remember if he was. All I remember is he wasn't willing to vote for you.

This is when he voted for nkiribt, you tell me if you think it was sheepy. I mean it isn't in the strict definition of sheepy because that is just saying "yuma, made a good case. vote: soandso" Here robz goes into it a bit more--which happens, because for anyone to get lynched people need to be second and third in line on a wagon or you would just have a bunch of one vote wagons--but it really isn't him bringing up compelling information, but rather saying that my information had merit. So it isn't exactly what robz is saying the others did, but there certainly is a similarity...

Definitely, definitely agree on the nkirbit case. I like it better than your case on mail-mi, mail-mi just feels like a mislynch, right? For most of IRL today, I felt like we were headed toward a mail-mi lynch, and that I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him flip town.

The nkirbit case is much better. And he's a smart guy, he plays like a smart guy, and I think he would play scum sort of fairly competently (from his perspective) but might still get caught by someone like you or me, who knows what to look for in a newbie scum.

Do I like it better than my chairs case? I guess so.

Vote: nkirbit
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yuma

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 1 start)
« Reply #704 on: July 02, 2013, 12:32:07 pm »

One last thing that I forgot to mention when lio used the following quote:
I think it make spiritbears look really scummy because of his flip on nkirbit. Seems like scum who was like "I'm gonna be off-wagon, this'll be awesome!" then, "oh no, this mislynch might not go through without me. I really just want to get to night and mislynch townies, so I'll "change my mind"".

It also makes whoever was the alternative wagon(s) look bad. So that's Yuma, and maybe mail-mi/chairs right?

[snip mean girls example] "Well nkiribit was wrong... must be because we were right about someone else, cause there is no way we were that totally off day1!"
Well, to me I'm willing to look at mail-mi (unhelpful town play), you (inscrutable), and chairs (lurking? but maybe V/LA) anyway, so it doesn't strike me as suspicious. We'll see what lio has to say about the three of them, if anything.

willing to look, yes, absolutely and maybe that is all lio was saying about it. But I felt that with the context of the other posts he was establishing the tone for the day in forcing the focus to be on me, mail-mi and spiritbears. I know I am town and I see the other two as the two easiest potential mislynches going into day and if I were scum and they weren't my scum buddies I would be trying for their mislynch because it would have the appearance of an easy mislynch...

And really if I weren't calling out lio on this (if I had died during the night and couldn't post), what would you guys be talking about? Probably more about spiritbears and mail-mi and how scummy they are...
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Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 1 start)
« Reply #705 on: July 02, 2013, 12:35:55 pm »

And really if I weren't calling out lio on this (if I had died during the night and couldn't post), what would you guys be talking about? Probably more about spiritbears and mail-mi and how scummy they are...
And so you think mail-mi and sb/eevee are town?
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yuma

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 1 start)
« Reply #706 on: July 02, 2013, 12:38:28 pm »

And really if I weren't calling out lio on this (if I had died during the night and couldn't post), what would you guys be talking about? Probably more about spiritbears and mail-mi and how scummy they are...
And so you think mail-mi and sb/eevee are town?

I think if they are, they are the easier mislynches out of everyone around... or at least they were.

I think I lean townier on both of them.
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Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 1 start)
« Reply #707 on: July 02, 2013, 12:39:29 pm »

And really if I weren't calling out lio on this (if I had died during the night and couldn't post), what would you guys be talking about? Probably more about spiritbears and mail-mi and how scummy they are...
And so you think mail-mi and sb/eevee are town?

I think if they are, they are the easier mislynches out of everyone around... or at least they were.

I think I lean townier on both of them.
Reasonable.
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liopoil

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 1 start)
« Reply #708 on: July 02, 2013, 12:44:05 pm »

I don't want to look at mail-mi. I am frustrated with his play, but don't really want to lynch him. I will re-read some other people today though.

That post by robz isn't sheeping in the same sense that mail-mi is. mcmc sheeped Yuma similarly to Robz did D1 though (sheeping is the wrong word here... they were influenced by Yuma), so I do think that is a bit hypocritical of robz.
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yuma

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 1 start)
« Reply #709 on: July 02, 2013, 12:49:29 pm »

I don't want to look at mail-mi. I am frustrated with his play, but don't really want to lynch him. I will re-read some other people today though.

That post by robz isn't sheeping in the same sense that mail-mi is. mcmc sheeped Yuma similarly to Robz did D1 though (sheeping is the wrong word here... they were influenced by Yuma), so I do think that is a bit hypocritical of robz.

isn't that basically what I was saying?
I mean it isn't in the strict definition of sheepy because that is just saying "yuma, made a good case. vote: soandso" Here robz goes into it a bit more--which happens, because for anyone to get lynched people need to be second and third in line on a wagon or you would just have a bunch of one vote wagons--but it really isn't him bringing up compelling information, but rather saying that my information had merit. So it isn't exactly what robz is saying the others did, but there certainly is a similarity...

Robz is saying "everyone is sheeping (and he mostly means being influenced) by yuma!" Panic!

But day1 he was "influenced" by yuma as well. I don't think it is bad to be influenced by me to an extent. I am town and trying to scum hunt. But I do find it interesting that Robz is so panicked about following me when he kinda did the same thing himself. What is different this time around? Is it just that it is others, rather than himself that are following to an extent, or is there something else that has him worried (for example... is lio his partner and he is trying to manipulate town into not following me by calling them out for "sheeping"? Not saying this is the case, but it is a thought...)
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liopoil

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 1 start)
« Reply #710 on: July 02, 2013, 01:03:02 pm »

yes, it is. So I was agreeing with you pretty much I guess. I don't think it's too scummy though. It's a contradiction for sure, and makes me more suspicious for sure, but isn't a big deal.
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 1 start)
« Reply #711 on: July 02, 2013, 01:26:12 pm »

I don't want to look at mail-mi. I am frustrated with his play, but don't really want to lynch him. I will re-read some other people today though.

That post by robz isn't sheeping in the same sense that mail-mi is. mcmc sheeped Yuma similarly to Robz did D1 though (sheeping is the wrong word here... they were influenced by Yuma), so I do think that is a bit hypocritical of robz.

isn't that basically what I was saying?
I mean it isn't in the strict definition of sheepy because that is just saying "yuma, made a good case. vote: soandso" Here robz goes into it a bit more--which happens, because for anyone to get lynched people need to be second and third in line on a wagon or you would just have a bunch of one vote wagons--but it really isn't him bringing up compelling information, but rather saying that my information had merit. So it isn't exactly what robz is saying the others did, but there certainly is a similarity...

Robz is saying "everyone is sheeping (and he mostly means being influenced) by yuma!" Panic!

But day1 he was "influenced" by yuma as well. I don't think it is bad to be influenced by me to an extent. I am town and trying to scum hunt. But I do find it interesting that Robz is so panicked about following me when he kinda did the same thing himself. What is different this time around? Is it just that it is others, rather than himself that are following to an extent, or is there something else that has him worried (for example... is lio his partner and he is trying to manipulate town into not following me by calling them out for "sheeping"? Not saying this is the case, but it is a thought...)

You forget, I didn't follow you the first time, you had a case against someone who I didn't think was compelling, I don't remembr who at all. I would have to look. And I didn't follow you.

Then you made a really good case against someone and I followed you.

Man I can't remember Day 1.

The difference to me hear was it looked like people were just willing to fall in line behind you automatically. Oh, and I followed you after you made your case against whoever on Day 1. Mcmc and SB followed you before you even explained WHY you were suspicious of liopoil! That's some pretty heavy faith in yuma.

Also, I don't care. When I'm sheeping, it's not sheepy to me. When other people do it, it is. I can't explain it.
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yuma

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 1 start)
« Reply #712 on: July 02, 2013, 03:26:02 pm »

I do have to say that a large part of my feelings about lio stem from how I feel about everyone else...

Like I said before I have somewhat strong town reads on mcmc and voltaire.

mcmc I have had a bias towards town since the beginning of the game... because I think his "VT slip" was only one that town could make. But he has also played in what I would call VT fashion--somewhat disinterested (mcmc this isn't a criticism, just a commentary because I know you are busy, but I also know that when you are mafia you make it a priority to post a lot more and be more active) and lower on the activity scale in a way that reminds me much more of his town style than his scum. And when he has posted I feel like he has taken positions--although I expect mcmc to be able to do that regardless of alignment. But mostly this just looks more like Mean Girls mcmc than any scum mcmc I have yet seen. Sure he could be trying to pull of that meta as mafia, but it is the riskier route to take... Because he would--and is to an extent here (nkirbit was pretty hard on him, as has lio) for doing so.

voltaire I feel is pretty darn townie to me. He is the most interested in finding scum I think. He has solid posts, good rationale and hasn't allowed himself to be influenced by my posts. This last part is pretty important to me. It is frustrating because I think I am right obviously... but he hans't budged. I think if he is mafia he would be much more likely to eventually cave in and give into my train of thought. That would be very easy to do as mafia. Simply say "man... yuma is making some really good points and I am starting to see what he is saying..." a couple of posts later, "yeah, I think I agree with yuma... vote nkirbit or lio or whatever" but he hasn't done that. He has suspected me, but that doesn't make him scum, it makes him cautious... which is again frustrating, but hey... that is mafia.

mail-mi and spiritbears (eevee) could be mafia, but I lean more on the town side of them. I don't see spiritbears hammering and I still think both are the easier mislynches around and have reflected that by the wagons that have formed and grown on them.

Chairs is pretty much a null read. Hard to have an opinion on him when he is new and very VLA. He still seems pretty sold on the robz stuff.

Robz is next. Robz is hard to read, nuff said. No but really, most of the time I have no idea what scum robz is going to look like and the only times I have caught him out are the times that we have found his partner and then based his actions around that partner to pinpoint him as mafia. As we haven't caught mafia yet, that is a bit difficult.

Lio I think you all know where I stand. And like I said, a lot of it is based off pretty strong to relatively ok town reads on others. And it is basically a process of elimination plus what I think to be somewhat compelling evidence against him.
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 1 start)
« Reply #713 on: July 02, 2013, 03:32:52 pm »

I do have to say that a large part of my feelings about lio stem from how I feel about everyone else...

Like I said before I have somewhat strong town reads on mcmc and voltaire.

mcmc I have had a bias towards town since the beginning of the game... because I think his "VT slip" was only one that town could make. But he has also played in what I would call VT fashion--somewhat disinterested (mcmc this isn't a criticism, just a commentary because I know you are busy, but I also know that when you are mafia you make it a priority to post a lot more and be more active) and lower on the activity scale in a way that reminds me much more of his town style than his scum. And when he has posted I feel like he has taken positions--although I expect mcmc to be able to do that regardless of alignment. But mostly this just looks more like Mean Girls mcmc than any scum mcmc I have yet seen. Sure he could be trying to pull of that meta as mafia, but it is the riskier route to take... Because he would--and is to an extent here (nkirbit was pretty hard on him, as has lio) for doing so.

voltaire I feel is pretty darn townie to me. He is the most interested in finding scum I think. He has solid posts, good rationale and hasn't allowed himself to be influenced by my posts. This last part is pretty important to me. It is frustrating because I think I am right obviously... but he hans't budged. I think if he is mafia he would be much more likely to eventually cave in and give into my train of thought. That would be very easy to do as mafia. Simply say "man... yuma is making some really good points and I am starting to see what he is saying..." a couple of posts later, "yeah, I think I agree with yuma... vote nkirbit or lio or whatever" but he hasn't done that. He has suspected me, but that doesn't make him scum, it makes him cautious... which is again frustrating, but hey... that is mafia.

mail-mi and spiritbears (eevee) could be mafia, but I lean more on the town side of them. I don't see spiritbears hammering and I still think both are the easier mislynches around and have reflected that by the wagons that have formed and grown on them.

Chairs is pretty much a null read. Hard to have an opinion on him when he is new and very VLA. He still seems pretty sold on the robz stuff.

Robz is next. Robz is hard to read, nuff said. No but really, most of the time I have no idea what scum robz is going to look like and the only times I have caught him out are the times that we have found his partner and then based his actions around that partner to pinpoint him as mafia. As we haven't caught mafia yet, that is a bit difficult.

Lio I think you all know where I stand. And like I said, a lot of it is based off pretty strong to relatively ok town reads on others. And it is basically a process of elimination plus what I think to be somewhat compelling evidence against him.

I think your mcmc read is potentially a huge, huge mistake. Don't think the slip was at all something only a VT could make. Remember all the deiberate errors scum!yuma baked into his performance in Mafia XIX?

Voltaire, I don't have much either way. He could just be challenging you because you are a threat to his scum game. But, well, I probably lean town, but not strongly. He's not a lurker, I'll give him that.

Mail-mi is my biggest scum read. Seems like lurker scum mail-mi, to me.

SBEevee is obvtown.

I've actually forgotten what I thought about chairs Day 1, and have zero thoughts about him Day 2. Has he said anything?

Lio, I don't think is scum, because too many people are too excited about lynching him. And mail-mi's "Oh yeah, he's the lynch, but no rush." Really feeds into that.

Am I voting for mail-mi? I should be. Vote: mail-mi
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 1 start)
« Reply #714 on: July 02, 2013, 03:34:07 pm »

Oh, and of course, I forgot to give a read on you, that's how much you are in my head. Well, I can't really differentiate scum!yuma from town!yuma. I didn't accept you were scum!yuma in Mafia XIX until there was literally no other possibility, you will recall. I usually just assume you are town.
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liopoil

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 1 start)
« Reply #715 on: July 02, 2013, 03:35:21 pm »

POE yuma? when you're null on chairs, unsure on robz, and only lean town on eevee and chairs?
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 1 start)
« Reply #716 on: July 02, 2013, 03:37:04 pm »

POE yuma? when you're null on chairs, unsure on robz, and only lean town on eevee and chairs?

Well he's leaning town on mcmc and Voltaire  and mail-mi too, so that's a pretty selective reading. I think he's substantially wrong though.
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mail-mi

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 1 start)
« Reply #717 on: July 02, 2013, 03:37:51 pm »

I just reread loop oils defenses and I actually really like them so I will unvote. I think later today or tomorrow I will look at robs, as I think he is in the scummiest position on the wagon and I'm getting kind of a scummy read from him.
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yuma

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 1 start)
« Reply #718 on: July 02, 2013, 03:39:04 pm »

POE yuma? when you're null on chairs, unsure on robz, and only lean town on eevee and chairs?

try reread...

Pretty to relatively strong town on mcmc, voltaire, spiritbears and mail-mi

null on chairs

unsure on robz and scummy on you

so really I have robz, lio and chairs as my choices... I don't see what is wrong with POE here...
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yuma

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 1 start)
« Reply #719 on: July 02, 2013, 03:43:46 pm »

I think your mcmc read is potentially a huge, huge mistake. Don't think the slip was at all something only a VT could make. Remember all the deiberate errors scum!yuma baked into his performance in Mafia XIX?

I agree it could be potentially a mistake. And I am trying to keep that into consideration. I mean if he was doing somethings that I felt were scummy, then yeah... I would have to alter my reads. But he hasn't really. And I don't think you can really compare my deliberate erros in MXIX--remember that only one was real, the Marquis thing was completely genuine--as those I think were well... deliberate... his was the first post of the game and a very casual "slip" if it was a slip at all. We can go back and reanalyze it if we want, but from the moment I read it, I thought mcmc is probably town and nothing has made me change my mind since that. My mind is open to be changed--I am trying to not force mcmc into a townie position--but certainly hasn't been.
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liopoil

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 1 start)
« Reply #720 on: July 02, 2013, 03:50:57 pm »

POE yuma? when you're null on chairs, unsure on robz, and only lean town on eevee and chairs?

try reread...

Pretty to relatively strong town on mcmc, voltaire, spiritbears and mail-mi
from your post I got the sense it was only slight town on mail-mi and SB. But it doesn't really matter.
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chairs

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 1 start)
« Reply #721 on: July 02, 2013, 04:17:36 pm »

Scum to Chum quicklist:

Robz888 - If he's not scum I might have to eat my hat.  Mostly my gut, I guess (although I've pointed out a few things that irk me in earlier posts).

liopoil - I understand the concept of policy votes, but exceptions to rules ought to be made, and SB's behaviour certainly seemed to warrant the exception, particularly as he's almost certainly town. (Obviously this is now eevee so we'll have some fun confirming that with the new reads).

mcmcsalot - Had the initial "townslip" (I didn't feel it was as strongly pro-town as others did, but that's why we all talk about these things, right?) but is otherwise practically off my radar as just following the "strongest voice" - which is a bit scummy.

mail-mi - For some reason he's just having trouble staying on my radar.

yuma - Slight-to-moderate town, doing lots of analysis, confident posting style, encourages dissent.  Could be pretty good meta-scum play, I suppose.

Voltaire - doesn't trust Yuma, but isn't strictly tunneling anybody.  slight-to-moderate town.

eevee/spiritbears - I'm convinced (based on SB's play) that Eevee is town.  SB was so on tilt at the end that I don't see any chance that it was scum play.

liopoil

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 1 start)
« Reply #722 on: July 02, 2013, 04:38:54 pm »

liopoil - I understand the concept of policy votes, but exceptions to rules ought to be made, and SB's behaviour certainly seemed to warrant the exception, particularly as he's almost certainly town. (Obviously this is now eevee so we'll have some fun confirming that with the new reads).

eevee/spiritbears - I'm convinced (based on SB's play) that Eevee is town.  SB was so on tilt at the end that I don't see any chance that it was scum play.
so you disagree with my vote. why does this make me scummy? And you are dangerously sure of yourself on eevee/SB. scum can do crazy things...
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 1 start)
« Reply #723 on: July 02, 2013, 05:42:33 pm »

Robz888 - If he's not scum I might have to eat my hat.  Mostly my gut, I guess (although I've pointed out a few things that irk me in earlier posts).

There are no hats left on the Forum Games board; people who said that exact think have gobbled them all down after being proved wrong.

I'm being cute, but seriously. I, and lots of other people, have made "this is such a for-sure thing" bets all the time and been wrong, all the all the time. Someone back me up here.
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liopoil

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 1 start)
« Reply #724 on: July 02, 2013, 05:52:00 pm »

it's true. mcmc was certain I was scum in mean girls and was dead wrong. He always thinks I'm scum though. I ate my hat when ashersky was town in bankers, though, I was dead, and had a false guilty result on him, which I would have realized was false if I was paying attention. In DS9 I was sure that there were only 5 scum, there were 6. In mean girls, I was sure that Yuma was scum, oh hey, he actually was. So sometimes people do get it right, but actually, usually being certain is a sign that you're wrong :P

I am unsure whether yuma pushing my lynch is scummy or not. I'll take a look at that.
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