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[spiritbears]

unvote
The more I think about it
The less likely  I think it is that a
First game chair would get a scum role

This reasoning is false and invalid.

No it's not.  Name one person on this forum that ever got a scum role first game....even if you can actually make one, it's such a high improbability that it is practically true.... 
That you would call it false. Suggests you are pushing that lynch waaaaaay too hard

[liopoil]

no, I'm sure each player in this game had an equal chance of being scum. it was determined randomly!

Besides, I was scum in the first game that I actually finished, and I think mcmc was scum in his first game.

[yuma]

unvote
The more I think about it
The less likely  I think it is that a
First game chair would get a scum role

This reasoning is false and invalid.

No it's not.  Name one person on this forum that ever got a scum role first game....even if you can actually make one, it's such a high improbability that it is practically true.... 
That you would call it false. Suggests you are pushing that lynch waaaaaay too hard

I did! Xeiron did... remember him in the "game which shall not be named" and I Qvist in MXV. It happens... why because probability happens.

But you are missing the point here.

If you are saying chairs only had a 2/9 chance of being scum. That is true. But it is true of everyone in this game. Thus we take that information and know that everyone, all things being equal, is less likely to be mafia than town. Everyone has a 7/9 chance of being town. That is pretty good odds!

So what we have to do is thus: scum hunt and figure out who is being the most scummy. Robz is saying it is chairs, I am saying it is mail-mi. Scum hunting...

And like I said above... for what you said to be true, that would require shraeye to deliberately alter the alignment and roles in such a way that they are no longer random. I don't think he did that and if he did I would be be pretty upset. Opposed to raerae's game where it was said from the outset that other players would be manipulating who was scum... but that game is the exception.

[Voltaire]

Okay, who OMGUses? I agree that veteran scum does not typically OMGUS, or does not OMGUS more than veteran town, at least. But for a newbie? Yeah, I think newbie scum would OMGUS. I know I have done it. I can think of others doing it.

New players do it. Pretty sure I did it when I was new. I am not liking your case at all on chairs. It reads like your case on me in ZM1 to me.

On a re-read nkirbit truly hasn't contributed that much. Staying in the shadows. Nkirbit, I'd like more of your thoughts - and to re-think your vote on chairs. (Everyone, re-think your vote on chairs). Most of the reasons are just terrible.

Sb has been...strange. Lots of posts like his recent one about why he might clear chairs. It's weird play regardless of alignment. Is this normal for sb? For now, scumread on sb.

And mail-mi? Also hated the wagon on mail-mi.

So unless the team is yuma/sb, scum has appeared town to me at this point.

PPE: At this rate, I'm going to clear most people as town due to bad play! Mafia would never play this bad.

[spiritbears]

First game you finished is not the same thing
Also, I'm sure a good mod would overrule a newb scum roll
And being introduced to scum roll in a newbie game is also different

[Voltaire]

I am saying it is mail-mi. Scum hunting...

Is your case just that one hedging quote, or is there more?

[spiritbears]

About fn time Yuma had a scum read on me!!!
Was begining to think the world was offkilter

[yuma]

Pretty classic. Pretty scummy.

I tend to think OMGUS to be more a universal reaction rather than a scum play. Or rather, scum do it just as often as town and for me it is rarely indicative of alignment. Because the natural reaction to someone voting for you is to vote for them back, as either town or mafia. Especially as a new player who might not realize the problem that comes with it.

You really seem to be forcing this idea of a chair lynch through... for someone who is supposed to be really unsure of himself in terms of scum hunting... (not making fun, just repeating what you yourself have said in previous games....) you are being extremely confident on day1 and on a player who you have never played with before.

Okay, who OMGUses? I agree that veteran scum does not typically OMGUS, or does not OMGUS more than veteran town, at least. But for a newbie? Yeah, I think newbie scum would OMGUS. I know I have done it. I can think of others doing it.

The second part of your argument... whatever, I think I am on to something.

Right! But who else can do it? Newbie town. (I for one don't have a lot of experience with being a newbie town as the first 3/4 games I was in I was mafia... and had already had quite a bit of experience before I was ever a townie)

So the sword swings both ways... Remember insomniac... king of the town OMGUS?

The second part... that is all I wanted to know. If you really think you are onto something, go for it and I hope that you are right (if you are town) and that you will ultimately convince me. But right now I am not convinced.

[liopoil]

no way would shraeye reroll if a newbie rolled scum. No way.

[spiritbears]

no way would shraeye reroll if a newbie rolled scum. No way.

You don't know that.
And who cares anyway. 
Chairs is not going to be lynched today no matter how scummy he acts.  That much is clear

[Voltaire]

First game you finished is not the same thing
Also, I'm sure a good mod would overrule a newb scum roll
And being introduced to scum roll in a newbie game is also different

A bad mod would do that. In a normal game, at least. I know Robz made me a scum PR in XI (Courtyard Masquerade) because I'd done well as town in my first 2 games and wanted to see how I'd do as scum. (And what it turns out I do is run away after getting overwhelmed by the size of the game).

[Robz888]

First game you finished is not the same thing
Also, I'm sure a good mod would overrule a newb scum roll
And being introduced to scum roll in a newbie game is also different

A good mod would do no such thing. SB, you are just wrong here.

[yuma]

Also, I'm sure a good mod would overrule a newb scum roll

I strongly disagree. It is the basic foundation of this game... that roles and alignments are determined randomly. If you undermine that principle then the game collapses. If any mod has been doing this, they are modding incorrectly (unless it is a RMM game or a BM game or it is made explicitly clear in the opening post). No argument about this. This is how the game is played.

And you basing your idea about chairs off this is taking a huge thing for granted... I am sorry spiritbears, but right now you are being unnecessarily stubborn. I am absolutely sure about this, that your logic about chairs at the moment is incorrect and I bet that the other 7 players here agree with me. I dont' have a scum read on you because of it, but just think that you are looking at this situation incorrectly.

I'll go back and see if I can find other examples of people being mafia on their first game...

The first ~5 games I won't count because a many players were new at that point and not counting newbie games... nor blitz or RMM or BM...

1. Glooble in MVI
2 & 3. YoungNick and Pingpongsam in MVII
4. sparky in MIX
5 & 6 Watno and TheMunch in MXI
7. Qvist in MXV
8. Lekkit in MXVII
9. Winterspartan in MXXIV

So quite a few examples.

[yuma]

but ultimately it doesn't matter... what matters is that everyone can be just as likely to be scum, so I suggest we return to a regularly scheduled scum hunting...

mail-mi anyone?

[liopoil]

no way would shraeye reroll if a newbie rolled scum. No way.

You don't know that.
And who cares anyway. 
Chairs is not going to be lynched today no matter how scummy he acts.  That much is clear

I'll vote for chairs if I think he's scum, for sure. He could get lynched.

I'll ask shraeye, I think he might answer, and I'm pretty sure of what answer he will give:

Shraeye, would you, under any circumstances, re-roll the setup based on something like giving a newbie a good introduction to the game.

[Robz888]

but ultimately it doesn't matter... what matters is that everyone can be just as likely to be scum, so I suggest we return to a regularly scheduled scum hunting...

mail-mi anyone?

Every day is Techno Free Tuesday! Not really, but that's what I feeling like. It never seems like he's around. I know that's not actually fair to him. I never notice him, and I don't know why, and he usually skates past me as scum. What has he said so far?

[chairs]

After reading the latest posts..



I'm glad I decided to join the forum and play, this is the kind of mind game type stuff I usually only get out of internet spaceship politics.

[Voltaire]

Chairs is not going to be lynched today no matter how scummy he acts.  That much is clear

And (for now) I'm quite happy about that.

Likely Town:
mcmc

Maybe Town:
liopoil
chairs
mail-mi

Null:
nkirbit
sb
Robz

Maybe Scum:
yuma

Ugh. Too much null.

[Voltaire]

First game you finished is not the same thing
Also, I'm sure a good mod would overrule a newb scum roll
And being introduced to scum roll in a newbie game is also different

A bad mod would do that. In a normal game, at least. I know Robz made me a scum PR in XI (Courtyard Masquerade) because I'd done well as town in my first 2 games and wanted to see how I'd do as scum. (And what it turns out I do is run away after getting overwhelmed by the size of the game).

TO BE CLEAR Robz made it incredibly clear from the start he might do this sort of thing. Don't want to imply I'm calling him a bad mod!

[yuma]

last post about this. This is from the mafiawiki that shraeye lists in his opening post:

How should I decide who should get what roles in the Mafia game I am running?
The most common and recommended way is randomly. This is the fairest way to assign roles.
You can use the Sequence Generator at random.org.
Assign each role a number.
Run the generator.
Match the role number to your player list.

Common and recommended... for a newbie game I think common and recommended is the way it went.

[Voltaire]

but ultimately it doesn't matter... what matters is that everyone can be just as likely to be scum, so I suggest we return to a regularly scheduled scum hunting...

mail-mi anyone?

Convince me. Is the case more than the "wagon is too quick" post?

[yuma]

but ultimately it doesn't matter... what matters is that everyone can be just as likely to be scum, so I suggest we return to a regularly scheduled scum hunting...

mail-mi anyone?

Every day is Techno Free Tuesday! Not really, but that's what I feeling like. It never seems like he's around. I know that's not actually fair to him. I never notice him, and I don't know why, and he usually skates past me as scum. What has he said so far?

well there was the one post in particular I pointed out...

and then there is this:

Well that's too quick of a wagon for him to be scum. Although that was a suspicious post.

This screams to me of mail-mi trying to get on the town side of mcmc's future flip (I think he will flip town, I think mail-mi perhaps knows he will flip town) but at the same time slightly advocating the votes and the lynch by admitting that it was a suspicious post.. (it wasn't...)

which you said you disagreed with. Since then:

It was just a stream of thought. First thought: that wagon formed really quickly, I don't think mcmc is scum. Second thought: but that was a suspicious post. Hm.

Right now I have a townish read on mcmc because scum mcmc is calm cool and collecting. Town mcmc is more clumsy.

uses someone else's excuse for his post... nice and convienent. Has a weird read about mcmc, I don't remember mcmc being clumsy in this game...

Ready, set, reactions!

Chairs wagon: meh. He doesn't strike me as super scummy. Also I agree with yumas stance.

My wagon: yep I probably should have thought a bit more before posting that.

Reads:

Right now, chairs is on the more scummy side and mcmc on the townier side, but only barely. don't know about Robz, he's always changing everything up.

For a reactions post... there is like nothing here. No commentary other than himself and chairs when there was other stuff going on.

The "yep, I probably should have thought a bit more before posting that"... well to me it looks like the "if I agree it is scummy maybe they will see that I have nothing to hide and stop looking at me" tactic.

And then super weak reads... everyone is null! except two really weak reads.

[yuma]

but ultimately it doesn't matter... what matters is that everyone can be just as likely to be scum, so I suggest we return to a regularly scheduled scum hunting...

mail-mi anyone?

Convince me. Is the case more than the "wagon is too quick" post?

that is the basis. Since then he has done stuff that has been kinda in the middle, so nothing to make me really push the lynch harder, and nothing to make me think he is townie. See above post.

[Robz888]

Okay I guess that's kind of scummy.

[spiritbears]

no way would shraeye reroll if a newbie rolled scum. No way.

You don't know that.
And who cares anyway. 
Chairs is not going to be lynched today no matter how scummy he acts.  That much is clear

I'll vote for chairs if I think he's scum, for sure. He could get lynched.

I'll ask shraeye, I think he might answer, and I'm pretty sure of what answer he will give:

Shraeye, would you, under any circumstances, re-roll the setup based on something like giving a newbie a good introduction to the game.

This kindof ruins the whole point of speculation.  Which was just for speculating.