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Author Topic: Getting an early Familiar  (Read 21353 times)

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pst

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Re: Getting an early Familiar
« Reply #25 on: May 03, 2013, 10:49:22 am »
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With Steward but no Potion in your turn 3 hand you should draw cards if you have 4 Coppers, otherwise not.

Why?
If I have already 4 coppers in hand and draw 2 cards of my remaining 7, there is a bigger chance for drawing a fifth copper of my remaining 3 (leaving 2$P for t4) than for drawing that single potion. Maybe this is too intuitive a question to hold against your statistics, but I'd like to know, nonetheless.


Because you're very unlikely to get a Familiar on T4 in that case as that would require 2 of your 3 Estates (which are all still in the deck) to be on the bottom, which is less likely than your Potion being one of the  two cards you'd draw with Steward.

This is different when your hand is Steward + 3 Coppers + Estate, as now only 2 Estates remain in your deck, so that one Estate + 1 Copper on the bottom would also get you a T4 familiar. Now drawing 2 cards has a higher probability of ruining a T4 familiar than getting a T3 one.

I did this wrong and have corrected the original post now. If the $2 isn't what you need it's never wrong to draw cards instead! (Only thinking about the getting-Familiar-probability, of course) If you have Steward, Copper, 3 Estates in your t3 hand it doesn't matter, but otherwise it's always to better to draw in t3 if you have Steward without Potion.

It's easy to see that it doesn't matter in that case. It's not possible to buy a Familiar in t3 because even if you draw the Potion you won't afford it. So all your hope is to t4, and you have the same chance to achieve that with the top five cards as with the bottom five cards of your deck.

If you have at least 2 Coppers in your hand the same reasoning applies, except now you have a chance to get the Familiar in turn 3 if you draw, so it's a win.

I'm sorry for doing this wrong at first!
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AHoppy

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Re: Getting an early Familiar
« Reply #26 on: May 03, 2013, 11:03:37 am »
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The better line "Squire + draw" is for when your trasher draws a card first (Forager, Rats, Upgrade, Junk Dealer). Both of these are much worse than Potion + Silver.

Forager doesn't draw.
if you trash your overgrown estate it does

Nope. Overgrown Estate draws, Forager does not.
Actually, you draw, the cards do not.
either way, it still increases the chance of getting a familiar.  Just never count on it...
No, it doesn't, because the card you're trashing should be a Squire, not an Overgrown Estate. Unless you went for Potion/Forager, which isn't a great opening on a Familiar board.
true.  ah well, I tried

AJD

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Re: Getting an early Familiar
« Reply #27 on: May 03, 2013, 12:54:06 pm »
+2

On the other hand, in a game where people are opening Watchtower/Watchtower, Familiar is usually going to be "+1 card, +1 action, trash a Curse from the supply"—how badly do you really want that Familiar?
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Awaclus

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Re: Getting an early Familiar
« Reply #28 on: May 03, 2013, 01:22:20 pm »
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On the other hand, in a game where people are opening Watchtower/Watchtower, Familiar is usually going to be "+1 card, +1 action, trash a Curse from the supply"—how badly do you really want that Familiar?
But if you don't want that Familiar, you don't want double Watchtower. And if you don't have double Watchtower, your opponents will want that Familiar.
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WanderingWinder

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Re: Getting an early Familiar
« Reply #29 on: May 03, 2013, 01:46:22 pm »
+3

I find all of the squire-based lines confusing - particularly anything that doesn't specifically have squire with a trasher - but also reasonably useless compared to other things.

I recalculated things from yesterday and am now getting figures agreeing with yours - not sure what I did wrong.

Anyway, here's some other possibilities of interest:
Potion/nothing: 60.606% chance
Potion/copper: 60.101% chance (Obviously this extends to things like squire as well that give you $1)
Potion/(Warehouse/courtyard): 93.434% chance
Then the interesting one - herbalist. Playing where you only return a potion from t3 to t4 if possible bumps your chances up to 62.88%. However, you get very slightly better chances by returning copper if you have a t3 herbalist without potion and with 3 or more coppers. This lifts you up to a 63.51% chance. Furthermore, in either case, there is a 7.72% chance of getting TWO familiars on turns 3-4. So, if you're playing to maximize the number of familiars you have at the end of t4, with herbalist you expect .7123.

Also, if you think about it, oracle is going to be VERY high, as it can do everything moat can plus a little more. Haven't sat down to calculate this, though, as it would be really complicated in some cases (triggering a reshuffle before the end of t4 leads to needing more information, at the least).

Finally, courtyard/potion going for *golem* does not seem at all an unreasonable play.

Drab Emordnilap

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Re: Getting an early Familiar
« Reply #30 on: May 03, 2013, 02:55:20 pm »
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I find all of the squire-based lines confusing - particularly anything that doesn't specifically have squire with a trasher - but also reasonably useless compared to other things.

Quote
I've included the alternative way to get Familiar from Squire without a Potion. The first line for Squire is for when you get it with a trasher like Chapel that can trash Squire if you draw them together. The better line "Squire + draw" is for when your trasher draws a card first (Rats, Upgrade, Junk Dealer). Both of these are much worse than Potion + Silver.
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WanderingWinder

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Re: Getting an early Familiar
« Reply #31 on: May 03, 2013, 03:02:36 pm »
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I find all of the squire-based lines confusing - particularly anything that doesn't specifically have squire with a trasher - but also reasonably useless compared to other things.

Quote
I've included the alternative way to get Familiar from Squire without a Potion. The first line for Squire is for when you get it with a trasher like Chapel that can trash Squire if you draw them together. The better line "Squire + draw" is for when your trasher draws a card first (Rats, Upgrade, Junk Dealer). Both of these are much worse than Potion + Silver.
I understand that - I did read what he put there - but it's not intuitive to just look at watchtower/watchtower, for instance, and see aha, I am getting a familiar. If it said "Double watchtower (squire)", it would be much better IMO.

Awaclus

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Re: Getting an early Familiar
« Reply #32 on: May 03, 2013, 03:08:30 pm »
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Also, if you think about it, oracle is going to be VERY high, as it can do everything moat can plus a little more. Haven't sat down to calculate this, though, as it would be really complicated in some cases (triggering a reshuffle before the end of t4 leads to needing more information, at the least).
And it sometimes screws up your opponent's successful Familiar purchase by discarding the Potion or two Coppers or their Oracle (or whatever they bought with their $3).
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shMerker

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Re: Getting an early Familiar
« Reply #33 on: May 03, 2013, 03:38:39 pm »
+1

I find all of the squire-based lines confusing - particularly anything that doesn't specifically have squire with a trasher - but also reasonably useless compared to other things.

Quote
I've included the alternative way to get Familiar from Squire without a Potion. The first line for Squire is for when you get it with a trasher like Chapel that can trash Squire if you draw them together. The better line "Squire + draw" is for when your trasher draws a card first (Rats, Upgrade, Junk Dealer). Both of these are much worse than Potion + Silver.
I understand that - I did read what he put there - but it's not intuitive to just look at watchtower/watchtower, for instance, and see aha, I am getting a familiar. If it said "Double watchtower (squire)", it would be much better IMO.

The best way to cue a dominion player to non-standard gaining is with *.
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ftl

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Re: Getting an early Familiar
« Reply #34 on: May 03, 2013, 04:09:49 pm »
+1

The asterisk is a good idea.

Also, the "Draw" terminology is really confusing. I was sitting there wondering how squire+smithy gets you a familiar.

I would suggest:
1) Squire+Trash from hand
2) Squire+Cantrip Trasher
3) 2x Watchtower (with squire)

for those cases. Better to be explicit with it.

Actually, since you have space, you might as well make the other columns "P+Silver, P+Moat", etc. Those lines are all short anyway.
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Davio

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Re: Getting an early Familiar
« Reply #35 on: May 03, 2013, 04:18:17 pm »
+6

How about Shanty Town/Moat?

Added!
Great, now we can finally conclude that Moat is better than Silver.

Moat, passing the Silver test since Alchemy.
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AJD

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Re: Getting an early Familiar
« Reply #36 on: May 03, 2013, 04:26:02 pm »
0

On the other hand, in a game where people are opening Watchtower/Watchtower, Familiar is usually going to be "+1 card, +1 action, trash a Curse from the supply"—how badly do you really want that Familiar?
But if you don't want that Familiar, you don't want double Watchtower. And if you don't have double Watchtower, your opponents will want that Familiar.

So it sounds like you should open double-Watchtower anyway, for flexibility? If your opponent doesn't go Watchtower, you go for Familiar; if they do, well, at least you're defended if they get a Familiar?

If your opponent goes double-Watchtower, the thing to do is probably wait to get a Familiar until their deck is a bit more padded, I guess.
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ftl

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Re: Getting an early Familiar
« Reply #37 on: May 03, 2013, 04:44:24 pm »
0

Squire/Watchtower also works as an engine, so those watchtowers aren't wasted either way.

Still takes some trashing, those coppers will get in the way of squire/watchtower... but if there isn't any trashing, you'll want to get familiars anyway, because then even a small number of curses that get through the defenses are a big deal. Maybe not immediately, but at some point.
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Kirian

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Re: Getting an early Familiar
« Reply #38 on: May 03, 2013, 04:56:35 pm »
0

On the other hand, in a game where people are opening Watchtower/Watchtower, Familiar is usually going to be "+1 card, +1 action, trash a Curse from the supply"—how badly do you really want that Familiar?
But if you don't want that Familiar, you don't want double Watchtower. And if you don't have double Watchtower, your opponents will want that Familiar.

So it sounds like you should open double-Watchtower anyway, for flexibility? If your opponent doesn't go Watchtower, you go for Familiar; if they do, well, at least you're defended if they get a Familiar?

If your opponent goes double-Watchtower, the thing to do is probably wait to get a Familiar until their deck is a bit more padded, I guess.

I don't know.  At that point, you might as well just keep buying Watchtowers, right?
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AJD

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Re: Getting an early Familiar
« Reply #39 on: May 03, 2013, 05:31:33 pm »
0

If your opponent goes double-Watchtower, the thing to do is probably wait to get a Familiar until their deck is a bit more padded, I guess.

I don't know.  At that point, you might as well just keep buying Watchtowers, right?

Depends on whether there's a good Watchtower-based engine to be built, I guess. Otherwise you're loading up on terminals and not actually building your deck.
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Kirian

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Re: Getting an early Familiar
« Reply #40 on: May 03, 2013, 06:38:35 pm »
+1

If your opponent goes double-Watchtower, the thing to do is probably wait to get a Familiar until their deck is a bit more padded, I guess.

I don't know.  At that point, you might as well just keep buying Watchtowers, right?

Depends on whether there's a good Watchtower-based engine to be built, I guess. Otherwise you're loading up on terminals and not actually building your deck.

Edge case: Sarcasm.
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NoMoreFun

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Re: Getting an early Familiar
« Reply #41 on: May 16, 2013, 10:44:49 am »
0

What about Squire+Masquerade?
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Qvist

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Re: Getting an early Familiar
« Reply #42 on: May 16, 2013, 10:59:04 am »
+3

What about Squire+Masquerade?

I don't want a Familiar with Masquerade on the board.

ragingduckd

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Re: Getting an early Familiar
« Reply #43 on: May 16, 2013, 02:27:22 pm »
0

What about Squire+Masquerade?

I don't want a Familiar with Masquerade on the board.

Sure you do. At least you'd want one for free, right? Or six of them for free?

Or do you mean that you wouldn't (go to hell, edge-casers) bother with the nuisance of a Potion and the risk of catching an early 2+P?
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ftl

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Re: Getting an early Familiar
« Reply #44 on: May 16, 2013, 03:05:41 pm »
0

Well, it's still not free, you spent a buy on a squire which you're going to trash AND you spent one masquerade turn on trashing that squire instead of playing it and trashing an estate. So it puts you pretty substantially behind at first, it's still an investment. And you can't even get more than one familiar this way, not without spending even more time buying squires and getting them to collide with masquerades.
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NoMoreFun

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Re: Getting an early Familiar
« Reply #45 on: May 16, 2013, 03:36:18 pm »
0

What about Squire+Masquerade?

I don't want a Familiar with Masquerade on the board.

Sure you do. At least you'd want one for free, right? Or six of them for free?

Or do you mean that you wouldn't (go to hell, edge-casers) bother with the nuisance of a Potion and the risk of catching an early 2+P?

It's a card that Masquerade can draw dead, and at best it gives out curses, which will be passed back to you, slowing down your own trashing prowess. It's a pretty big conflict.
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ragingduckd

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Re: Getting an early Familiar
« Reply #46 on: May 16, 2013, 04:52:18 pm »
+4

Well, it's still not free, you spent a buy on a squire which you're going to trash AND you spent one masquerade turn on trashing that squire instead of playing it and trashing an estate. So it puts you pretty substantially behind at first, it's still an investment. And you can't even get more than one familiar this way, not without spending even more time buying squires and getting them to collide with masquerades.

$2 + buy + untrashed estate/copper is nothing to sneeze at, but keep that cost in perspective.

In a kingdom without Masquerade, Familiar is so strong that you're typically willing to open Potion + Silver to get one.  You spend your $4 open on a card that will be useless for most of the game and you still face a 35% chance of missing it on the first shuffle or even drawing $2+P.  By contrast, $2+Squire is perfectly fine... and whether you get your Familiar or not, you still end the first shuffle 1-2 cards slimmer than if you'd opened Potion.

The real question is how effectively Masquerade counters Familiar.  If you draw a Curse with your Masquerade, you'll probably swap it for a Copper or an Estate.  So when things go well, your opponent's Familiar has effectively handed you a Copper.

I'll concede that this counter is decent enough in a Masquerade-BM deck.  A Copper instead of a Curse can mean buying a Gold instead of a Silver, and you don't really want to slim down aggressively anyway.  But in an engine deck, Masquerade hardly counters Familiar at all.  Being handed a Copper is very nearly as bad as being handed a Curse, and being handed 5-10 over the course of a game is devastating.  When your Masquerade is up against an enemy Familiar, it makes no net progress slimming your deck at all.
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HiveMindEmulator

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Re: Getting an early Familiar
« Reply #47 on: May 16, 2013, 06:23:07 pm »
+1

What about Squire+Masquerade?

I don't want a Familiar with Masquerade on the board.

Well, you don't want to do a lot of things whose probabilities were computed for this thread, so that's not really the point. Squire+Masq is pretty easy to compute. You need the Masq to show up on turn 3 or 4, and the Squire to be one of the other 6 cards that show up with it. So the probability is 10/12*6/11 = 5/11 = 0.4545...
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Re: Getting an early Familiar
« Reply #48 on: May 17, 2013, 12:40:58 am »
0

I think that I've beaten a somewhat mediocre Familiar deck with Masq-BM before. And if I can build any kind of decent engine, I might just skip Familiar.
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Re: Getting an early Familiar
« Reply #49 on: May 18, 2013, 10:57:39 pm »
0

I get very annoyed when my opponent opens Potion + Scheme and still gets a Familiar on the next shuffle!

So what are the odds for this? If I open Silver it's a 65.40% chance for me. And a 60.606% chance for the player who opened Scheme?
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