Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[nkirbit]

I get what you're saying, but I think it's less clear cut than you do because TA was the one who brought up the idea of stealing first, not EFHW.  Had EFHW been the first one to bring it up, I agree that it would have been a slam dunk scumslip, but I'm not as sure given that it wasn't something she brought up herself.. she was directly replying to someone else speculating about it.

[ashersky]

Fair enough.

Alright, as mentioned, super limited availability starting now.  I may be able to check in from time to time.  My thoughts are out there.

[EFHW]

I just finished re-reading EFHW, and I really just have an exceptionally hard time reading her.  The oddest thing for me is saying that she has a null-read on Ahoppy #1194, but her last post about Ahoppy was in #651 where she describes him as scummy.  Why the change?

Well it is 553 posts later.  I had forgotten about those earlier impressions.  I also wasn't ok with Ash putting me on Ahoppy's hypothetical wagon.

[shraeye]

I just finished re-reading EFHW, and I really just have an exceptionally hard time reading her.  The oddest thing for me is saying that she has a null-read on Ahoppy #1194, but her last post about Ahoppy was in #651 where she describes him as scummy.  Why the change?

Well it is 553 posts later.  I had forgotten about those earlier impressions.  I also wasn't ok with Ash putting me on Ahoppy's hypothetical wagon.

I think the problem is exactly the fact that AHoppy is background.  While others are stirring up trouble, it's easy to focus on any little suspicion from that while the real scum fade into the background.  I feel like I'm saying this at every opportunity, but it's the players taht you don't remember that are the most suspicious.  Lacking an obvious reason to categorize them as towny/scummy, we tend to put them in null and forget about them.  Scum love that.

[shraeye]

For fun, let's deconstruct the claim as if X is scum.  Here's the post:

I probably won't make myself more popular with this, but vote: no-lynch

I have given this some thought and I think nolynch is a lot better in this game that most other games.
Nolynch ensure us more powerroles still in the game. Both because of any starting power a lynchée might have and because of the items that could boost the other players. It think the extra information we gain at night by not lynching town could make up for us missing a chance to lynch scum.

Besides I have come up with a plan that i hope can win us(town) this game. I can't tell you the details yet so you would have to trust me on this one. The first step is obviously to no-lynch today.  For the rest to work more smoothly I would like to make an item request.

Could you please send me a pen and some paper during the night?

So he opens the claim with the no-lynch vote.  He discusses it and supports it with the "more powerroles" argument and the extra info at night argument.  He needs to make these arguments sound pro-town because of the pro-scum problems with not lynching.

Then he says he has a plan that can win town the game.  Note the parenthetical use of town there to make sure we know he means town.  That is something scum will do sometimes when they are self-conscious about pronouns such as "us."  He has a plan, but can't share the details.  Wants trust.

Then he asks for pen and paper.  So, here is the only really specific part of the claim.  And it's pretty easy to fake, given chairs had already claimed paper.  DO YOU ALL NOW SEE WHY IT IS BAD TO CLAIM LIKE THAT?  If X is scum, and if X needed a fake claim, he now had something others can confirm to use in it.  One can assume pen is an okay thing to fake given we know paper is in the game.

These are the thought processes I think go into this if it is a fake claim.

I'm not sure I understand the point of this exercise.

[shraeye]

He asked for two no-lynches, remember.  So scum gets two free passes.  I don't like that about the plan, and absolutely think we don't follow the plan.

So we lynch today, we lynch tomorrow.  We don't lynch X.  I don't think anyone should give him pen/paper, either.

I think the two no-lynches are not a good idea.  Lynching seems to only hurt xeiron's plan if it's the paper giver, the pen giver, or xeiron hiimself.  Well I'm not going to lynch xeiron, I won't lynch chairs, and I think the risk of hitting pen-giver out of the remaining is worth the chance to hit scum.

If I have control of pen/paper, I will absolutely give it to xeiron.  I don't understand why you want to not lynch xeiron, but you also don't want to let him try his plan by giving him paper/pen.

[theorel]

Wow, this game is crazy active.  I think we're over-reaching the value of day1 at this point.

@everyone finding xeiron townier for suggesting no lynch.  Are we actually doing it?  No.  What's the outcome of the suggestion he made?  lynch anyone but xeiron.  That's why it's a survivalist tell, that's why it's actually scummy NOT townie.  If xeiron is scum, we've just upped our chances of hitting town but some fair margin.

And, here's the kicker...he's already noted that he'll be alive tomorrow and wants us not to lynch him AGAIN.  You know who knows they'll survive nights?  scum.

But, he did apparently do something similar recently.  I wasn't there, but I do wonder if it was also after he was already under pressure?  I dunno, every time nkirbit posts he's making sense about it, and when someone else posts it doesn't quite make sense.

Final note regarding xeiron (response to his last response to me even though there are 5 million posts in between): @xeiron: it read to me as you characterizing me scummy for concentrating on math instead of scumhunting.  Now, it's true you didn't vote, and were questioning rather than accusing, but it's still claiming something scummy (or suspicious, or "problematic" or whatever) that you're doing yourself, and that is suspect.

That said, there really doesn't seem to be sufficient support for his lynch.  Based on my reading, it looked like the lynch candidates were efhw, ahoppy, and eevee.

I'm going to do a vote count, and decide which of these I support the most.  I really doubt it's efhw though.  I'm really not finding her scummy in any of this.

btw we never came to any sort of consensus on a soft deadline, which is kind of bad.  The absolute latest deadline suggested was Wednesday evening.  But after Sunday evening and yesterday evening, this day is already past the point of reasonable to re-read.  We need to END THIS DAY already.  There are too many arguments around for why people are scum.  Some people just need to sacrifice their reads and go along to make a lynch happen.  I know some people think that's super-scummy, but it's how we move the game forward.  And this game NEEDS to move forward.

[theorel]

Unofficial Vote Count

xeiron (3) nkirbit, raerae, theorel
EFHW (3) ashersky, mail-mi, Eevee
Eevee (2) EFHW, ahoppy
AHoppy (2) shraeye, raerae
No Lynch (1) xeiron

Not Voting: (3) AHoppy, Twistedarcher, chairs

[theorel]

I'm a moron, I forgot to remove people from their old vote.
Real Unofficial Vote Count
xeiron (2) nkirbit, theorel
EFHW (3) ashersky, mail-mi, Eevee
Eevee (2) EFHW, ahoppy
AHoppy (2) shraeye, raerae
No Lynch (1) xeiron

Not Voting: (2), Twistedarcher, chairs

[AHoppy]

I'm with theorel, let's just get this day over with.

[theorel]

Okay, well that's unfortunate.
I have reasons for and against each of these.
Efhw:
pros: biggest current wagon (that's a pretty strong reason at this stage).
cons: I really don't think the case on efhw is worth much.  It seems like it's nitpicking how she's saying things rather than what she's saying/doing.  She still reads rather townie to me.

Eevee:
pros: I think I agree with this case the most.  People are providing compelling reasoning here regarding quick changes of mind according to whatever direction the game is going.
cons: it's the smallest wagon (as it already has BOTH other lynch candidates on it, it's technically smaller than AHoppy's).  Eevee is a big contributor, and I don't love lynching big contributors.

AHoppy:
pros: It's (arguably) a bigger wagon than Eevee, and a better case than efhw.
cons: It's mostly just a null read wagon.  I don't like lynching people for under-contributing, especially given that he's starting to contribute more.

Alright, I think I'll vote: Eevee for now, because I find it the most compelling case.  My town-read was very gut-based, and the scum case seems more logical.  I'll try to reread (all 3 if I can) and see if I hate my vote sometime today, but in the interest of moving forward, this case gets the most support from me at the moment.

I'm a moron, I forgot to remove people from their old vote.
Real Unofficial Vote Count
xeiron (1) nkirbit
EFHW (3) ashersky, mail-mi, Eevee
Eevee (3) EFHW, ahoppy, theorel
AHoppy (2) shraeye, raerae
No Lynch (1) xeiron

Not Voting: (2), Twistedarcher, chairs

[AHoppy]

Come to think of it, I could easily be swayed to vote xerion. What are the things he wanted?
No lynch
Paper
Pen
Two of those things have been discussed before today (no lynch and paper) and I don't see it being a very far jump to pen. And as nk pointed out, I was wrong about wagons earlier, the wagon was on x, so this is an easy claim to save his own skin. I was just thinking earlier about saving his partner's skins, and forgot about him trying to save himself.

As to why I chose Eevee over ashersky, it was because the Eevee lynch is more likely to go through and Eevee is more of a background character than ash at this point. He's not lurking, but he's not a frontrunner.

[theorel]

If there's support for X I'll gladly switch back.  But I'm not sure we can get to 7.  At the least I know that ashersky, shraeye, raerae, efhw, and xeiron oppose it.
I'm not sure about chairs, eevee, twistedarcher, and mail-mi (Note: because I don't remember, not necessarily because they haven't said).  But they would all need to be on board, or someone from the other group would need to change their mind.

[AHoppy]

Alright, I can switch if the votes get up there. I still like Eevee too.

[Eevee]

Eevee:
pros: I think I agree with this case the most.  People are providing compelling reasoning here regarding quick changes of mind according to whatever direction the game is going.

cons: it's the smallest wagon (as it already has BOTH other lynch candidates on it, it's technically smaller than AHoppy's).  Eevee is a big contributor, and I don't love lynching big contributors.
Alright, I think I'll vote: Eevee for now, because I find it the most compelling case.  My town-read was very gut-based, and the scum case seems more logical.  I'll try to reread (all 3 if I can) and see if I hate my vote sometime today, but in the interest of moving forward, this case gets the most support from me at the moment.

Hoold on! No way that's true. I've been indecisive, but it hasn't been "according to whatever direction the game is going", on the contrary I was actually opposing the mail-mi and spirit lynches when they were starting to gain momentum.

If you for some reason think changing your mind back and forth is scummy, by all means vote for me. But you can't really say I'm changing my mind according to the direction the game is going if I post something, then 5 minutes go by and I quote myself saying "hmm, ultimately I think thing B overrules this thing A I mentioned here, so..".

Actually, yeah. I don't know why I'm being considered a good lynch target. I'm not even "feeling off" to people, and I don't think changing your mind often is reasonable grounds for suspicion unless the mind-changes seem to be favoring scum's agenda.

It should be pretty clear from my posts I don't proofread them or necessarily even think things through before posting. That can obviously lead to changes of heart (because I continue to think about the game after posting, some of the posts are sort of thinking out loud if you will).

[theorel]

That was my sense of the case against you.  Note that I'm judging the case here, and really more the sense of the case I got after reading the 10-or-so pages since yesterday.

I'll also note regarding meta, that the time I thought you were off, you were town.  So, I'm not putting a lot of stock in that (it's just all I had from before).

[Twistedarcher]

Come to think of it, I could easily be swayed to vote xerion. What are the things he wanted?
No lynch
Paper
Pen
Two of those things have been discussed before today (no lynch and paper) and I don't see it being a very far jump to pen. And as nk pointed out, I was wrong about wagons earlier, the wagon was on x, so this is an easy claim to save his own skin. I was just thinking earlier about saving his partner's skins, and forgot about him trying to save himself.

As to why I chose Eevee over ashersky, it was because the Eevee lynch is more likely to go through and Eevee is more of a background character than ash at this point. He's not lurking, but he's not a frontrunner.

Alright, I can switch if the votes get up there. I still like Eevee too.

I agree with Theorel that this day needs to end. These last two posts scream "anyone but me!" to me.

Vote: Ahoppy

I don't want to lynch Xeiron since I believe his claim/plan (even if I think it's really overstretched and pretty terrible and there's no way it works), I think Ash's case on EFHW, and her scumslip, it not that great. I'd be more tempted to vote Eevee, and would if that's the road we're going down, but I think Ahoppy is the background player most likely to flip scum.

[Eevee]

That was my sense of the case against you.  Note that I'm judging the case here, and really more the sense of the case I got after reading the 10-or-so pages since yesterday.

I'll also note regarding meta, that the time I thought you were off, you were town.  So, I'm not putting a lot of stock in that (it's just all I had from before).

Well I'd like someone to provide examples if that's the case. I actually can't remember anyone else taking the leap to saying "his mind has been changing according to the game state", I think earlier people were just saying "it's scummy to change your mind!".

theorel's playstyle is such that he is never going to be a day1 lynch, but if it ever was going to happen, I wouldn't mind today. That vote on me was for not good reasons (and I hold him to a high standard regarding these things).

Then again, it's not like all the alternatives can be his scumbuddies, so it doesn't make any sense for him to intentionally misrepresent me.

[Twistedarcher]

I'm more suspicious of Ash than I was earlier this day. I think his tunnels on Raerae and Eevee were good for town, but I'm less certain on this tunnel at EFHW. He very well could just be sold on the scumslip 100%, but I think he's been tunneling a weak case on EFHW rather than considering more solid cases. While his tunnels early on were good for moving the game along, his most recent tunnel hasn't done that. He could have noted that he got town cred for his early tunnels, and decided that's what he's doing this game (or at least this D1), and tried it again with EFHW.

We need a lynch soon, people.

[Twistedarcher]

Ash, you are in hardcore tunnel mode though, and not looking at things objectively. It's clear EFHW is in super scramble mode already, that's just an indication of that.

Wouldn't EFHW being in super scramble mode make her scummy? It's not often we see EFHW in super scramble mode.

[Eevee]

Ash, you are in hardcore tunnel mode though, and not looking at things objectively. It's clear EFHW is in super scramble mode already, that's just an indication of that.

Wouldn't EFHW being in super scramble mode make her scummy? It's not often we see EFHW in super scramble mode.

I don't know that she wouldn't go to scramble mode as scared town. It really sucks to let your team down by being the day 1 lynch either way.

Would lynch
EFHW
Ahoppy
theorel
shraeye

Would probably lynch
raerae
chairs
mail-mi maybe?
ash maybe?

Varying degrees of town reads
xeiron
nkirbit
TA

Meh, it's all very close, the people within the same category are in no particular order.

[Twistedarcher]

Okay, well that's unfortunate.
I have reasons for and against each of these.
Efhw:
pros: biggest current wagon (that's a pretty strong reason at this stage).
cons: I really don't think the case on efhw is worth much.  It seems like it's nitpicking how she's saying things rather than what she's saying/doing.  She still reads rather townie to me.

Eevee:
pros: I think I agree with this case the most.  People are providing compelling reasoning here regarding quick changes of mind according to whatever direction the game is going.
cons: it's the smallest wagon (as it already has BOTH other lynch candidates on it, it's technically smaller than AHoppy's).  Eevee is a big contributor, and I don't love lynching big contributors.

AHoppy:
pros: It's (arguably) a bigger wagon than Eevee, and a better case than efhw.
cons: It's mostly just a null read wagon.  I don't like lynching people for under-contributing, especially given that he's starting to contribute more.

Alright, I think I'll vote: Eevee for now, because I find it the most compelling case.  My town-read was very gut-based, and the scum case seems more logical.  I'll try to reread (all 3 if I can) and see if I hate my vote sometime today, but in the interest of moving forward, this case gets the most support from me at the moment.

I'm a moron, I forgot to remove people from their old vote.
Real Unofficial Vote Count
xeiron (1) nkirbit
EFHW (3) ashersky, mail-mi, Eevee
Eevee (3) EFHW, ahoppy, theorel
AHoppy (2) shraeye, raerae
No Lynch (1) xeiron

Not Voting: (2), Twistedarcher, chairs

Since you're voting Eevee for agreeing with the case on him, can you remind me what the case on Eevee is?

I'd like to hear it from you, and not from anyone else. I get that you're pushing a vote through because we NEED a lynch (and I 100% agree), but I'm not convinced that you actually know what the case is (or that anyone's made a true case on Eevee yet). There's been lots of little scummy things, I agree, but what specifically gives you a scum read / makes you ok with lynching Eevee?

[Twistedarcher]

Nkirbit, chairs, I think there's enough people opposed to the Xeiron lynch that it's not going to happen. You two should switch your votes to one of the other current wagons.

[AHoppy]

Eevee: why would you vote chairs, when it seems like everyone else has a super town read on him?

TA: are you going to put a vote down?

Everyone: I'm done posting for today until evening. If I'm the lynch, let me speak before the hammer. Thanks!

[Eevee]

Eevee: why would you vote chairs, when it seems like everyone else has a super town read on him?

TA: are you going to put a vote down?

Everyone: I'm done posting for today until evening. If I'm the lynch, let me speak before the hammer. Thanks!

There is only so towny you can be with 24 posts (20 after game start) in 50 pages.

I'm not saying chairs is super scummy, but claiming to have paper and generally seeming genuine (and likeable, the fact that he is funny does make me / I assume others feel better about him) is the only reason for his town cred really. His contributions other than that aren't really earth-shattering.