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[nkirbit]

I think X is scummy, too.  It isn't like he's a bad lynch or anything.

I think there's more to go on for the mail-mi case.  I won't stop an X lynch, but it'd be surprising for him to be scum.  If this was his first scum game, I'd expect him to be more excited, and therefore posting more to stay alive.

Hasn't Xeiron been scum before?  I remember reading a game where he was scum.

Hmmm.  Maybe?

The game that should not be named!  So he has yet to finish a game as scum.

I do agree with the fact that we get little info if he flips.  But if we're lurking to lynch a lurker, that's going to be true regardless.  And we still gain info from his wagon, competitor's wagons, etc.  I don't think it's that big of an issue, and we should never be looking to lynch someone for info.  We should be looking to lynch to get scum.

[Twistedarcher]

You know the problem with an X lynch?  Zero info gained from his flip, either way.  I mean, that's a good reason to lurk if you are scum, but still.

The only real interaction we have is mail-mi's re-read.  And if X is scum, mail-mi got lucky or is bussing.

This is definitely a true point about little info.

I don't think mail-mi got lucky if Xeiron is scum, he made a very good observation that no one else made before him on Xeiron's analysis of Theorel's math, which is very scummy.

[Twistedarcher]

Then vote him! He still hasn't provided adequate answers to my questions, or any answers at all. I know the personal stuff is getting in the way (and sorry SB, I really don't mean this personally at all), but I still do like my case. I can repost it if it makes it so people don't have to dig through the thread to find it.

You are asking us to vote a neutral read over our scum reads.  That doesn't sound odd to you?

I'm asking you to reconsider the case on a player I consider the most likely to flip scum, and then consider voting him. Nope, doesn't seem odd to me.

[nkirbit]

You know the problem with an X lynch?  Zero info gained from his flip, either way.  I mean, that's a good reason to lurk if you are scum, but still.

The only real interaction we have is mail-mi's re-read.  And if X is scum, mail-mi got lucky or is bussing.

This is definitely a true point about little info.

I don't think mail-mi got lucky if Xeiron is scum, he made a very good observation that no one else made before him on Xeiron's analysis of Theorel's math, which is very scummy.

If he's right, he's still lucky in the fact that he chose to re-read scum.

[EFHW]

We've been so talkative, I haven't had a chance to post my reread of TA.  I started out thinking he was scummy, based on a few things:

-- his bringing up claiming in the beginning just to say "be very very careful" struck me as scummy, because it could be an excuse to get people thinking about claiming and seeming towny at the same time by saying "don't!". 
-- his calling me the scummier of me and Shraeye was also odd to me, but I think now he may have taken my "what ifs" as accusations. 
-- his case on sb and his defense of mail-mi do give me pause.  sb was rude to him, which might be contributing to his confidence of that read, but I would think he would try to take that into account.  I don't see much evidence to support his level of certainty there.  And the same with mail-mi.  There's not much evidence to support his defense of mail-mi, either.  Otoh, his certainty is consistent with his general confidence in his own opinions. 

There is also substantial evidence arguing against scumminess:

-- As usual, he is an equal opportunity challenger of anything scummy. 
-- He brings up the possibility that scum can steal items.  This could be read either way, but in general I don't think scum would want to alert town to possible dangers, especially since scum could get a stealing power from items even if they don't have one now.  This was a strong indicator of towniness for me.
-- His response to Shraeye's case was on point and contained.  I think his calmness represents a maturing of him as a player more than scum behavior.
-- His reads refer to actual things people have said. 

SO, I have to withdraw my earlier prediction that TA is "probably" scum, and have hope of having the happiness in the future of saying he is probably town.

PPE: there have been tons of posts since I started typing this.  I'll amend as needed after I read them.

[Twistedarcher]

You know the problem with an X lynch?  Zero info gained from his flip, either way.  I mean, that's a good reason to lurk if you are scum, but still.

The only real interaction we have is mail-mi's re-read.  And if X is scum, mail-mi got lucky or is bussing.

This is definitely a true point about little info.

I don't think mail-mi got lucky if Xeiron is scum, he made a very good observation that no one else made before him on Xeiron's analysis of Theorel's math, which is very scummy.

If he's right, he's still lucky in the fact that he chose to re-read scum.

Oh. Well then yes.

[nkirbit]

You know the problem with an X lynch?  Zero info gained from his flip, either way.  I mean, that's a good reason to lurk if you are scum, but still.

The only real interaction we have is mail-mi's re-read.  And if X is scum, mail-mi got lucky or is bussing.

Obviously there would still be information. Who voted, who didn't?

The "If he was scum, he'd be more excited and post more" argument kind of does give me some pause about xeiron though. Changed my mind, don't want him lynched I don't think..

I just counted, and he had 21 posts in 17 pages as scum in the newbie game.  He has 12 posts in 35 pages here.  Certainly a noticeable difference.

[EFHW]

I think X is scummy, too.  It isn't like he's a bad lynch or anything.

I think there's more to go on for the mail-mi case.  I won't stop an X lynch, but it'd be surprising for him to be scum.  If this was his first scum game, I'd expect him to be more excited, and therefore posting more to stay alive.

Hasn't Xeiron been scum before?  I remember reading a game where he was scum.

Hmmm.  Maybe?

Did he win the crazy blitz game where everyone was scum?

[ashersky]

We've been so talkative, I haven't had a chance to post my reread of TA.  I started out thinking he was scummy, based on a few things:

-- his bringing up claiming in the beginning just to say "be very very careful" struck me as scummy, because it could be an excuse to get people thinking about claiming and seeming towny at the same time by saying "don't!". 
-- his calling me the scummier of me and Shraeye was also odd to me, but I think now he may have taken my "what ifs" as accusations. 
-- his case on sb and his defense of mail-mi do give me pause.  sb was rude to him, which might be contributing to his confidence of that read, but I would think he would try to take that into account.  I don't see much evidence to support his level of certainty there.  And the same with mail-mi.  There's not much evidence to support his defense of mail-mi, either.  Otoh, his certainty is consistent with his general confidence in his own opinions. 

There is also substantial evidence arguing against scumminess:

-- As usual, he is an equal opportunity challenger of anything scummy. 
-- He brings up the possibility that scum can steal items.  This could be read either way, but in general I don't think scum would want to alert town to possible dangers, especially since scum could get a stealing power from items even if they don't have one now.  This was a strong indicator of towniness for me.
-- His response to Shraeye's case was on point and contained.  I think his calmness represents a maturing of him as a player more than scum behavior.
-- His reads refer to actual things people have said. 

SO, I have to withdraw my earlier prediction that TA is "probably" scum, and have hope of having the happiness in the future of saying he is probably town.

PPE: there have been tons of posts since I started typing this.  I'll amend as needed after I read them.

See bolded sentence for possible scumslip, or yet another instance of town claiming information on accident.  How could you know scum can gain the ability to steal something from items?  Scum might know this from their own info.  Or you yourself know of such an item, as town.  But really, this is bad.

Like, lynching bad.

[ashersky]

Also, 35 pages before I call a scumslip.  That might be a record.  If only yuma were playing, he'd be yelling at me now.

[nkirbit]

I think X is scummy, too.  It isn't like he's a bad lynch or anything.

I think there's more to go on for the mail-mi case.  I won't stop an X lynch, but it'd be surprising for him to be scum.  If this was his first scum game, I'd expect him to be more excited, and therefore posting more to stay alive.

Hasn't Xeiron been scum before?  I remember reading a game where he was scum.

Hmmm.  Maybe?

Did he win the crazy blitz game where everyone was scum?

He did win the bastard game where everyone was a SK, yeah.  And was scum in the aborted game.

I also just counted mean girls:  40 posts in 2 and a half days.  So pretty much exactly in line with what we're seeing here, and he was town there.  This is a concern.

[Twistedarcher]

You know the problem with an X lynch?  Zero info gained from his flip, either way.  I mean, that's a good reason to lurk if you are scum, but still.

The only real interaction we have is mail-mi's re-read.  And if X is scum, mail-mi got lucky or is bussing.

Obviously there would still be information. Who voted, who didn't?

The "If he was scum, he'd be more excited and post more" argument kind of does give me some pause about xeiron though. Changed my mind, don't want him lynched I don't think..

This is now the second time in the past 3 or 4 pages where you've gone from having a scum read on someone to not supporting having them lynched, as soon as other people have brought up reasons on why they shouldn't be lynched. Foreground player for myself (although you cite my defense of mail-mi), and now Xeiron as soon as someone else pointed out a reason. I'm not sure if this a scum tell honestly, but it gives me pause at the very least.

[ashersky]

I might be convinced of an Eevee lynch.  I did tunnel him earlier.

[nkirbit]

So basically, we'd be inventory-claiming.

Okay. Hmmm, that seems better. The only possible downside I see is that it effectively provides a list of all of the items in the game, but is that such a bad thing that's abusable by scum? Unless scum have an ability to steal items, then it could backfire.

This is the only post in the game where TA talks about stealing items, at all, for reference.  I don't see how this is at all something that could be seen as scummy.. it's early in the game when we're talking about the possibility of claiming, and he offhandedly guesses something, and never talks about it again.  I don't get how this is any part of a read on TA.

[Eevee]

Xeiron seems like a guy who would put more effort into playing scum. In Axxle's ready, aim, fire! game (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=8078.0) he tried to form an alliance with everyone without any intention of staying true to them, so I think he would enjoy being scum in a mafia game and be pretty excited about it, ready to put in the effort to deceive people. That's why I changed my mind about him.

[Twistedarcher]

I might be convinced of an Eevee lynch.  I did tunnel him earlier.

But that wasn't a scum-read-tunnel, that was a let's-get-more-info tunnel, right? Or it started out as a scum read that you exaggerated for more info? Or you truly had a scum read? Argh I can't keep things straight, what the reason for tunneling him that hard, a genuine scum read?

[Eevee]

I might be convinced of an Eevee lynch.  I did tunnel him earlier.

For terrible reasons. Really, it wasn't a gambit, you believed all that?

[Twistedarcher]

So basically, we'd be inventory-claiming.

Okay. Hmmm, that seems better. The only possible downside I see is that it effectively provides a list of all of the items in the game, but is that such a bad thing that's abusable by scum? Unless scum have an ability to steal items, then it could backfire.

This is the only post in the game where TA talks about stealing items, at all, for reference.  I don't see how this is at all something that could be seen as scummy.. it's early in the game when we're talking about the possibility of claiming, and he offhandedly guesses something, and never talks about it again.  I don't get how this is any part of a read on TA.

The "scumslip" Ash brings up is from EFHW, I thought? I don't read much into it, really.

[EFHW]

-- He brings up the possibility that scum can steal items.  This could be read either way, but in general I don't think scum would want to alert town to possible dangers, especially since scum could get a stealing power from items even if they don't have one now.

See bolded sentence for possible scumslip, or yet another instance of town claiming information on accident.  How could you know scum can gain the ability to steal something from items?  Scum might know this from their own info.  Or you yourself know of such an item, as town.  But really, this is bad.  Like, lynching bad.

I think you must be misunderstanding me.  My reasoning went like this:

1.  If scum has a stealing power and TA is scum, he would not remind town of the possibility.
2.  If scum doesn't have stealing power, TA could still be scum and bring up stealing to create confusion and seem towny.
3.  BUT in this game, even if scum doesn't have stealing power now, they could get it in the future and therefore #1 still applies, and this is evidence of TA's towniness.

[Twistedarcher]

-- He brings up the possibility that scum can steal items.  This could be read either way, but in general I don't think scum would want to alert town to possible dangers, especially since scum could get a stealing power from items even if they don't have one now.

See bolded sentence for possible scumslip, or yet another instance of town claiming information on accident.  How could you know scum can gain the ability to steal something from items?  Scum might know this from their own info.  Or you yourself know of such an item, as town.  But really, this is bad.  Like, lynching bad.

I think you must be misunderstanding me.  My reasoning went like this:

1.  If scum has a stealing power and TA is scum, he would not remind town of the possibility.
2.  If scum doesn't have stealing power, TA could still be scum and bring up stealing to create confusion and seem towny.
3.  BUT in this game, even if scum doesn't have stealing power now, they could get it in the future and therefore #1 still applies, and this is evidence of TA's towniness.

The possibility of a scumslip lies in the possibility of you saying "The power's out there, and scum COULD get it", rather than it coming across as "There COULD be a power out there that lets scum do this". Ash is interpreting as the first I presume. I don't agree that this is necessarily the case.

[ashersky]

I might be convinced of an Eevee lynch.  I did tunnel him earlier.

For terrible reasons. Really, it wasn't a gambit, you believed all that?

I didn't not believe it.

I might be convinced of an Eevee lynch.  I did tunnel him earlier.

But that wasn't a scum-read-tunnel, that was a let's-get-more-info tunnel, right? Or it started out as a scum read that you exaggerated for more info? Or you truly had a scum read? Argh I can't keep things straight, what the reason for tunneling him that hard, a genuine scum read?

It was based on more a scum-read than the raerae thing.  That is to say, there's at least something there.

[ashersky]

-- He brings up the possibility that scum can steal items.  This could be read either way, but in general I don't think scum would want to alert town to possible dangers, especially since scum could get a stealing power from items even if they don't have one now.

See bolded sentence for possible scumslip, or yet another instance of town claiming information on accident.  How could you know scum can gain the ability to steal something from items?  Scum might know this from their own info.  Or you yourself know of such an item, as town.  But really, this is bad.  Like, lynching bad.

I think you must be misunderstanding me.  My reasoning went like this:

1.  If scum has a stealing power and TA is scum, he would not remind town of the possibility.
2.  If scum doesn't have stealing power, TA could still be scum and bring up stealing to create confusion and seem towny.
3.  BUT in this game, even if scum doesn't have stealing power now, they could get it in the future and therefore #1 still applies, and this is evidence of TA's towniness.

The possibility of a scumslip lies in the possibility of you saying "The power's out there, and scum COULD get it", rather than it coming across as "There COULD be a power out there that lets scum do this". Ash is interpreting as the first I presume. I don't agree that this is necessarily the case.

Right.  The wording of the sentence is "since scum could get a stealing power from items" and that to me says "there is a stealing power that scum could get from items" and only scum would know that.

[Eevee]

Can you state the case on me, now? Like, why would I be a good lynch? For reference:

I might be convinced of an Eevee lynch.  I did tunnel him earlier.

[ashersky]

So basically, we'd be inventory-claiming.

Okay. Hmmm, that seems better. The only possible downside I see is that it effectively provides a list of all of the items in the game, but is that such a bad thing that's abusable by scum? Unless scum have an ability to steal items, then it could backfire.

This is the only post in the game where TA talks about stealing items, at all, for reference.  I don't see how this is at all something that could be seen as scummy.. it's early in the game when we're talking about the possibility of claiming, and he offhandedly guesses something, and never talks about it again.  I don't get how this is any part of a read on TA.

The "scumslip" Ash brings up is from EFHW, I thought? I don't read much into it, really.

I don't think TA's post about stealing stuff makes him scummy.  It's just a "what if" sort of thing.  EFHW's seemed much more sure that stealing was going to happen. 

[nkirbit]

So basically, we'd be inventory-claiming.

Okay. Hmmm, that seems better. The only possible downside I see is that it effectively provides a list of all of the items in the game, but is that such a bad thing that's abusable by scum? Unless scum have an ability to steal items, then it could backfire.

This is the only post in the game where TA talks about stealing items, at all, for reference.  I don't see how this is at all something that could be seen as scummy.. it's early in the game when we're talking about the possibility of claiming, and he offhandedly guesses something, and never talks about it again.  I don't get how this is any part of a read on TA.

The "scumslip" Ash brings up is from EFHW, I thought? I don't read much into it, really.

I don't think TA's post about stealing stuff makes him scummy.  It's just a "what if" sort of thing.  EFHW's seemed much more sure that stealing was going to happen.

Oh no, I'm not saying he's scummy at all.  I also don't think he's towny at all.  His point read to me like it was the last sentence of a post, and he spent 5 seconds thinking about it.  I don't think it's meaningful in anyway, and think it's interesting that EFHW thinks it is.

I'm much, much less convinced of that being a scumslip than you are, Ash.  But I suppose others being less sure of scumslips is nothing new to you