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Author Topic: RMM8 Innovation Inc. (Plagiarists Win!)  (Read 192254 times)

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raerae

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Re: RMM8 Innovation Inc. (Day 1 Start!)
« Reply #650 on: June 29, 2013, 02:35:03 pm »

shraeye, AHoppy was a pretty frequent poster at the start of the game but then went MIA when talk started to turn away from theory.  EFHW noted that with this post and AHoppy's response was the very next post.  (NOTE: Most posts have been trimmed for spacing.)

No idea: X, -- and I have to look up to see who else is playing -- chairs, Ahoppy, nkirbit.  Would love to hear from you guys!

Sorry, I've been a little busy. I'm planning on rereading and posting my thoughts tonight.

Then nothing for a bit but this...

Alright, I'm about to start my re-read, I'll post thoughts when I finish

EFHW is again the one to notice the under-contributing AHoppy.

Chairs is v/la, Ahoppy hasn't been back.  We haven't heard from raerae or shraeye or theorel much today.  So nothing new to say there.

And BOOM! three posts later the man himself shows up with something that almost resembles reads but really doesn't give opinions on folks.


Again promises read when theorel points out his previous reread post didn't actually contain reads.

I'll get my re-reads when I'm not on mobile. But theorel, I find it strange that you put out your scum reads, and then vote for your number 2. Why not your number 1?

Finally posts a real read re: SB & TA and fell on the side of seeing SB as scummy. 
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EFHW

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Re: RMM8 Innovation Inc. (Day 1 Start!)
« Reply #651 on: June 29, 2013, 04:39:44 pm »

I agree with raerae that Ahoppy has a scummy feel about him.  I also noticed his appearing right after being called out for being absent - that strongly suggests lurking.  The post she links but doesn't quote ...


... takes xeiron to task for saying it's ok to lynch someone with a power role b/c we all have pr's.  Criticizing X for this is a really easy way to seem towny, just like "don't claim" and "remember we have a deadline".  Then he is careless about his speculating.  There is a long paragraph rehashing the Ash-raerae-Shraeye-TA thing, coming to the same conclusion as Shraeye.  Then a bunch of stuff about how he hasn't read any farther and hopes to soon.

This is far from damning evidence, but from my perspective he's putting forth a pretty weak presence with very little contribution.
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shraeye

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Re: RMM8 Innovation Inc. (Day 1 Start!)
« Reply #652 on: June 29, 2013, 05:12:39 pm »

AHoppy's paragraph with ash/rae, shray/TA comes to a different conclusion than I originally did.  I think his idea is a more logical conclusion.  What do you think about AHoppy's conclusion, EFHW?
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EFHW

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Re: RMM8 Innovation Inc. (Day 1 Start!)
« Reply #653 on: June 29, 2013, 06:37:17 pm »

AHoppy's paragraph with ash/rae, shray/TA comes to a different conclusion than I originally did.  I think his idea is a more logical conclusion.  What do you think about AHoppy's conclusion, EFHW?

That's true, he doesn't find TA towny as result of this train of thought, whereas you did.  He thinks scum would distract from scum!raerae even if it meant bussing another scum.  I don't know if that is more logical or not.  It only leaves one person, the 3rd scum (assuming 3 for convenience), to do the jumping on the wagon, but I guess scum!raerae could have too. 

I think it was too early in the game for scum to get away with jumping on wagons.  Those who did do that certainly got scrutiny for it -- xeiron for raerae, mail-mi for Ashersky (or was it Eevee?).  If this set of circumstances happened later in the game I would be more open to seeing raerae as towny b/c of it. 

Of course by Ahoppy's modification of your logic, hypothetically scum could buss [is it 1 's' or 2?] another scum to distract from the scum!raerae wagon.  I thought it was possible you were bussing TA.  So from that angle, the scenario doesn't clear raerae since you could have been doing the distracting. 

I don't actually have any reason to think raerae is scum so far and I don't think she wasn't ever in any real danger for scum to need to take measures to protect her. 
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EFHW

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Re: RMM8 Innovation Inc. (Day 1 Start!)
« Reply #654 on: June 29, 2013, 06:39:01 pm »

Edit: I don't think she wasn't ever in any real danger ...
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EFHW

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Re: RMM8 Innovation Inc. (Day 1 Start!)
« Reply #655 on: June 29, 2013, 09:39:04 pm »

5 people don't have votes down.  How many are scum?  Eevee, mail-mi, TA, Ahoppy, chairs.
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mail-mi

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Re: RMM8 Innovation Inc. (Day 1 Start!)
« Reply #656 on: June 29, 2013, 09:47:58 pm »

I think I'm gonna reread someone. Suggestions?
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nkirbit

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Re: RMM8 Innovation Inc. (Day 1 Start!)
« Reply #657 on: June 29, 2013, 10:34:26 pm »

I think I'm gonna reread someone. Suggestions?

Make the decision yourself.  I actually think that this is kind of a scummy question, in that scum doesn't really care who they make a case on, as long as there's a case.  And when that person flips town (if you make a good case on them, and really, it's Day1, I don't think there are any cases that blow away other cases) you can say "Hey, it was just random I made a case on this person, someone else picked it for me!"
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nkirbit

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Re: RMM8 Innovation Inc. (Day 1 Start!)
« Reply #658 on: June 29, 2013, 10:36:32 pm »

Just did a super daunting reread of chairs (all 9ish posts...) and came up with diddly.  Is he still v/la?  Chairs almost took a stance on shraeye in the early game but then backed off as soon as the EFHW/shraeye thing started up claiming he was mostly just joking with his vote anyway.  I think it's good to note that he never explained the part of that joke that wasn't a vote.  Just leaving wiggle room for later?  He then goes on to barely talk about theory for a couple posts then, when nobody snapped up on his carefully laid breadcrumb, he claimed.  As history has shown us, the person who claims out of the blue and unpressured gets a stupid amount of towncred and is (in recent memory anyway) usually scum.  Seeing as how this is his first game with us, I'm willing to cut a little slack but not without an explanation so...chairs, ya around?

Did Chairs ever actually explain why he claimed?  Did we even ask him?  Seems like a good question to get asked and answered.
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mail-mi

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Re: RMM8 Innovation Inc. (Day 1 Start!)
« Reply #659 on: June 29, 2013, 11:18:41 pm »

Okay, I'm going to reread xeiron and all of his 9 whopping posts.

Yay for a new game.
First post, included for completeness (also because I don't want to take out a whole 1/9th of content.)

vote: raerae

Not RVS.

Nice explanation, Ash.  Totally a compelling case.

I agree this is the most compelling case we have so I will sheep Ashersky and vote: Raerae.

I don't know if this vote is RVS or if he thinks ash is soft claiming an investigative role, and since ash has claimed that it was just to gauge reactions, and xeiron has yet to unvote, pretty scummy.

I still want to hear why Ashersky's post in any way implicates Raerae as scum - I must be missing something.

I am not sure if it was intentional but this could be seen as a softclaim:

Results?  Hmmmm.  Remember when I was scum and claimed I tracked mcmc and caught scum?  That was awesome.  Here's the thing; if folks had just listened to my hinting without forcing me to claim, we would have lynched scum a power role AND not outed a power role scum.  So my general belief if to NOT claim results from investigations/watching/tracking/etc. unless you have to, even if you caught scum.  Instead, just vote and make cases.

This is a wierd post that I don't get. Just because I don't understand it, slight scum read.

I still want to hear why Ashersky's post in any way implicates Raerae as scum - I must be missing something.

I am not sure if it was intentional but this could be seen as a softclaim:

Results?  Hmmmm.  Remember when I was scum and claimed I tracked mcmc and caught scum?  That was awesome.  Here's the thing; if folks had just listened to my hinting without forcing me to claim, we would have lynched scum a power role AND not outed a power role scum.  So my general belief if to NOT claim results from investigations/watching/tracking/etc. unless you have to, even if you caught scum.  Instead, just vote and make cases.

If you think it's a soft claim, why are you pointing it out? Now, if it's true, you've put Ash in a bad spot! I figured he was just speaking generally, but dang, you could be right, but I wish you hadn't have pointed it out.

I fail to see how I put Ashersky in a bad spot. Yes, He might be a PR, but since this is role madness there should be no shortage of power roles. If he has an investigative role and already know raerae is scum, I do think he should claim so sometime during D1. If he don't, and we lynch raerae based on softclaims/cases from Ashersky and she flips town, we won't know if he is scum or just mistaken town. Remember that in his exemple he flipped the alignments. Had we lynched mcmc in that game without ash needing to claim, we wouldn't have caught him(ash) as scum.
My general belief if to DO claim results from investigations/watching/tracking/etc. unless you do not have to, if you caught scum. We probably have one or more doctor/protection role so it is not instant death to claim cop.

I did point it out because it is the among the most interesting things I have found in this game by now, because it might mean Ashersky is building up for a claim. If he is, that claim may be a fake, just as likely as a real one. Ashersky just had huge success with preparing for and then fakeclaimimg as scum. He would probably consider doing something like that again.

Theory talk, null read.

Quote
We should not itemclaim any more, because itemclaiming is roleclaiming. That is, roleclaiming of our future roles. The OP says items combination do make sense and should not be easy to guess. Meaning if I say I have a first aid kit, but wish for medicine it is not hard to figure out I am/can become a doctor. We should avoid claiming roles at this point.

I think the best way to maximize powerroles is for everyone to send items they don't nead to their biggest townread.

I like the conclusion he comes to, so townish read here.

Quote
I have reread spiritbears and he seems to me like good old town spiritbears.
I have also got atownread on Theorel and Ashersky.

Null.

Theorel are you sure on your numbers? I think assuming 3 scum it's about 55/45 that there's a scum. (9/12 * 8/11 of no scum). Higher if there's only 2 lower if 4. I think you are assuming fights are town v town far far too easily...
I wasn't removing myself, nor was I removing the first town player (i.e. I was just doing (10/13)^2).  The second one of those is obviously terrible.  The first is arguable (it's not using all information available to me/any town player, but it is still an accurate calculation for an impartial observer).
So, from an impartial observer it should be ~58%.  From a town player's perspective it's ~54.5%, and from scum's perspective they already know which it is.  I wouldn't say 60% is far far too easily.  I mean it's only ~5% more likely.

I apologize for my bad maths.

I just noticed this post by Theorel, and I have some problems with it.

1. I wasn't removing myself, nor was I removing the first town player . The fact that you forgot to remove yourself makes me wonder if you do not automaticly see yourself as town.

2. (i.e. I was just doing (10/13)^2). How do you know for sure that there is exactly three scum?

I don't like the way he worded No. 2. "How can you be sure that there is exactly three scum?" can be interpreted more than one way. 1) there could be more than three scum, or the more incriminating 2) How do you know there's three scum (on my scum team)? One is more curious, one is more inquisitive (if you get what I mean). Slight scum read here.

Theorel are you sure on your numbers? I think assuming 3 scum it's about 55/45 that there's a scum. (9/12 * 8/11 of no scum). Higher if there's only 2 lower if 4. I think you are assuming fights are town v town far far too easily...
I wasn't removing myself, nor was I removing the first town player (i.e. I was just doing (10/13)^2).  The second one of those is obviously terrible.  The first is arguable (it's not using all information available to me/any town player, but it is still an accurate calculation for an impartial observer).
So, from an impartial observer it should be ~58%.  From a town player's perspective it's ~54.5%, and from scum's perspective they already know which it is.  I wouldn't say 60% is far far too easily.  I mean it's only ~5% more likely.

I apologize for my bad maths.

I just noticed this post by Theorel, and I have some problems with it.

1. I wasn't removing myself, nor was I removing the first town player . The fact that you forgot to remove yourself makes me wonder if you do not automaticly see yourself as town.

2. (i.e. I was just doing (10/13)^2). How do you know for sure that there is exactly three scum?

1. He didn't remove himself because he was presenting the case to other players, who don't for sure know that he's town.  I can see that, although I disagree with it.

2. 3 scum is pretty standard for a game of this size, I think.  I would guess 3 scum.



I have added Theorels post below where he originally calculates this.

1. He does not present his calculations to the other players, only the result in the form: more that 50% chance they are both town. So I am not convinced he would bother to put it in our perspective.
With the phrasing "given any 2 players at random" I agree it makes sense to include himself, but when he uses this to figure out whether efhw and shraeye are both town, it makes more sense not to.
The way he did it makes me think he was focused about calculating "any 2 players at random", not "EFHW - Shraeye". Could be because he is scum and thus not really scumhunting.


2.. I agree 3 scum is pretty standard. I would guess 3 scum as well. But when calculating something I would probably consider other scum distributions as well. Ta does so here:
Theorel are you sure on your numbers? I think assuming 3 scum it's about 55/45 that there's a scum. (9/12 * 8/11 of no scum). Higher if there's only 2 lower if 4. I think you are assuming fights are town v town far far too easily...
Theorel seems to be very sure that we are dealing with three scum since he do not address other possibilities.



In this case, that's spiritbears.  And although I don't think it's by any means conclusive, he does come off scummier here (IMO) for adding fuel to the fire.  It seems inherently scum-like to try to alienate players from each other if both are town.  Doing so helps to ensure that town will not unite against you.  OTOH if efhw-shraeye are not both town, then spiritbears (if scum) was either taking a position against a team-mate, or immediately alongside a team-mate.  That I think looks relatively unlikely, scum would be more likely to just try to pull attention elsewhere in that case...perhaps pushing the town v. town angle.  Since, at this stage, given any 2 players at random, they are more likely both town than either scum I'm going to go ahead with this making spiritbears slightly scummier (probably taking him just past neutral.  Say scumScore=26).

Null read here.

X looks scummy for his analysis of Theorel's math - he says right there in the post why he didn't remove himself.  Maybe xeiron didn't read carefully?
I wasn't removing myself, nor was I removing the first town player (i.e. I was just doing (10/13)^2).  The second one of those is obviously terrible. The first is arguable (it's not using all information available to me/any town player, but it is still an accurate calculation for an impartial observer).
I just noticed this post by Theorel, and I have some problems with it.
1. I wasn't removing myself, nor was I removing the first town player . The fact that you forgot to remove yourself makes me wonder if you do not automaticly see yourself as town.
2. (i.e. I was just doing (10/13)^2). How do you know for sure that there is exactly three scum?
I agree with this, and didn't pick up that theorel had put the reason right into his calculation post.  I initially was just going to inform xeiron, that theorel is very calculating like this and likes for his calculations to come from an impartial position.  But xeiron jumping on theorel without even fully reading the post really doesn't look good.

Vote: xeiron

I did read Theorel's post, and it reads to me that he  did forget, not chose, to to exclude himself, but argues afterwards that it is no big deal (In contrast to not excluding the first person, which is just wrong math.). His post answering my case seems to support this.

I am, by the way, statisfied with his answer so I do not plan on pushing this further.

And this is his last post. You don't seem to be planning on pushing anything further.

Now, I know xeiron always looks scummy. But 9 posts in 27 pages?!?!?!?! And I think the scummy outweighs the towny, and he really needs to get back here. vote: xeiron.

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raerae

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Re: RMM8 Innovation Inc. (Day 1 Start!)
« Reply #660 on: June 29, 2013, 11:35:24 pm »

I don't actually have any reason to think raerae is scum so far and I don't think she wasn't ever in any real danger for scum to need to take measures to protect her.

So...your reads have changed since your popsquiz?

Most scummy: Shraeye, possibly TA
Occasionally think they may be scum: raerae, Ashersky, mail-mi, Eevee (mostly for not posting)
Town read: sb, Theorel
No idea: X, -- and I have to look up to see who else is playing -- chairs, Ahoppy, nkirbit.  Would love to hear from you guys!
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EFHW

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Re: RMM8 Innovation Inc. (Day 1 Start!)
« Reply #661 on: June 29, 2013, 11:55:23 pm »

I don't actually have any reason to think raerae is scum so far and I don't think she wasn't ever in any real danger for scum to need to take measures to protect her.
So...your reads have changed since your popsquiz?
Most scummy: Shraeye, possibly TA
Occasionally think they may be scum: raerae, Ashersky, mail-mi, Eevee (mostly for not posting)
Town read: sb, Theorel
No idea: X, -- and I have to look up to see who else is playing -- chairs, Ahoppy, nkirbit.  Would love to hear from you guys!
I guess so, but that wasn't much of a scum read before.  I didn't have any reason to think you were scum then, either, I just said that I found myself thinking it more than once. 
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Axxle

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Re: RMM8 Innovation Inc. (Day 1 Start!)
« Reply #662 on: June 30, 2013, 12:13:00 am »

Vote Count 1.8

raerae (1)  xeiron
shraeye (2) EFHW, theorel
chairs (1) raerae
Twistedarcher (1) spiritbears
mail-mi (1) ashersky
xeiron (2) shraeye, mail-mi
spiritbears (1) nkirbit
Not Voting: (4) Eevee, AHoppy, chairs, Twistedarcher.


Day one ends on Monday, July 15th.
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Eevee

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Re: RMM8 Innovation Inc. (Day 1 Start!)
« Reply #663 on: June 30, 2013, 02:19:55 am »

I definitely didn't think TA attacked spirit either. I saw it as a "I find this thing you've done scummy, can you explain it?" sort of an inquiry.

raerae, I've had the same feelings about ta, can't explain them though. Disagree about chairs in that I think unpressured and a little unfortunate claims (especially day 1) have always been scum town

I can think of only one scum fake claim that was for no direct benefit (yuma in mean girls) and that certainly wasn't universally believed.

Where's the disagreement then, Eevee?  I'm confused.
Oh, sorry. Fixed above! Seriously, I challenge you to present me a day 1 "too eager" claim that was scum. They've always always been town this far!
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Re: RMM8 Innovation Inc. (Day 1 Start!)
« Reply #664 on: June 30, 2013, 02:21:39 am »

Oh, meant to be scum town.

... maybe everyone spots the typo by now anyways.
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nkirbit

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Re: RMM8 Innovation Inc. (Day 1 Start!)
« Reply #665 on: June 30, 2013, 02:48:07 am »

Oh, meant to be scum town.

... maybe everyone spots the typo by now anyways.

I'm still not sure what you're saying!  Haha.  Are you saying:

Oh, sorry. Fixed above! Seriously, I challenge you to present me a day 1 "too eager" claim that was scum town. They've always always been town this far!

That doesn't make any sense!  Do you want to say

Oh, sorry. Fixed above! Seriously, I challenge you to present me a day 1 "too eager" claim that was scum town. They've always always been town scum this far!

I'm just not sure :P
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Re: RMM8 Innovation Inc. (Day 1 Start!)
« Reply #666 on: June 30, 2013, 03:09:07 am »

Haha oh my.

I disagree with raerae. She is saying she thinks claims like the one chairs made are usually scum trying to get easy towncred, I challenge her to find even one unpressured "overeager" day 1 claim that was not just what it seems like - a townie that got a little bit too jumpy.
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nkirbit

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Re: RMM8 Innovation Inc. (Day 1 Start!)
« Reply #667 on: June 30, 2013, 03:14:33 am »

If chairs were scum, he would either be:

1)  Revealing the actual item he has.  This seems really bad, as town gets new info from this.

2)  Revealing an item that he doesn't have.  He picks paper, as it's you know, a common item that would make sense to be in this game.  But this risks the chance of someone counter-claiming paper, so I don't think he would do this.

I just really think that Chairs is town because of his claim.  This isn't a regular game where a mafia can just claim VT and have no risk of being counterclaimed or revealing info.  It's risky for scum to claim this early, and I especially don't think a new scum would take that risk.
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Re: RMM8 Innovation Inc. (Day 1 Start!)
« Reply #668 on: June 30, 2013, 03:19:38 am »

I agree, although I don't see how revealing he has paper is THAT bad if he is scum. But that's a bad discussion to have.
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Re: RMM8 Innovation Inc. (Day 1 Start!)
« Reply #669 on: June 30, 2013, 05:28:25 am »

If chairs were scum, he would either be:

1)  Revealing the actual item he has.  This seems really bad, as town gets new info from this.

2)  Revealing an item that he doesn't have.  He picks paper, as it's you know, a common item that would make sense to be in this game.  But this risks the chance of someone counter-claiming paper, so I don't think he would do this.

I just really think that Chairs is town because of his claim.  This isn't a regular game where a mafia can just claim VT and have no risk of being counterclaimed or revealing info.  It's risky for scum to claim this early, and I especially don't think a new scum would take that risk.

I agree, Chairs is probably town. Similarily, I think Ashersky is town for this one.

@ theorel: I think the three item thing came from Role PMs ( at least that's where I have it .)

I would note that the three item thing was in a PM sent to all players (I assume, given BCC) regarding how N0 was going.  The PM mentioned scum QTs locking, which is why I think scum got it as well as town.  So I would count that as public knowledge.

I do not think scum would know whether all players got the same PM, or if the scum QT-locking part were added only for scum players.
The deduction Ashersky does above is easy though, if he is town.
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raerae

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Re: RMM8 Innovation Inc. (Day 1 Start!)
« Reply #670 on: June 30, 2013, 10:16:42 am »

I honestly can't remember any unforced D1 claims lately.  I can remember lots of unforced claims though and most of them are scum. 
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raerae

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Re: RMM8 Innovation Inc. (Day 1 Start!)
« Reply #671 on: June 30, 2013, 10:17:51 am »

Hey!  Hey, X!  You appear to have missed this!

Hey, X, why ya still voting for me?
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shraeye

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Re: RMM8 Innovation Inc. (Day 1 Start!)
« Reply #672 on: June 30, 2013, 11:11:44 am »

AHoppy's paragraph with ash/rae, shray/TA comes to a different conclusion than I originally did.  I think his idea is a more logical conclusion.  What do you think about AHoppy's conclusion, EFHW?

That's true, he doesn't find TA towny as result of this train of thought, whereas you did.  He thinks scum would distract from scum!raerae even if it meant bussing another scum.  I don't know if that is more logical or not.  It only leaves one person, the 3rd scum (assuming 3 for convenience), to do the jumping on the wagon, but I guess scum!raerae could have too. 

I think it was too early in the game for scum to get away with jumping on wagons.  Those who did do that certainly got scrutiny for it -- xeiron for raerae, mail-mi for Ashersky (or was it Eevee?).  If this set of circumstances happened later in the game I would be more open to seeing raerae as towny b/c of it. 

Of course by Ahoppy's modification of your logic, hypothetically scum could buss [is it 1 's' or 2?] another scum to distract from the scum!raerae wagon.  I thought it was possible you were bussing TA.  So from that angle, the scenario doesn't clear raerae since you could have been doing the distracting. 

I don't actually have any reason to think raerae is scum so far and I don't think she wasn't ever in any real danger for scum to need to take measures to protect her.
I keep reading this and I can't figure out what you're conclusion is.  That raerae probably isn't scum?  Because at some point, you're calling an entire scum triple of raerae, me, Twisted.  Why does the fact that the wagon happened early in the game affect your read on raerae?
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Re: RMM8 Innovation Inc. (Day 1 Start!)
« Reply #673 on: June 30, 2013, 11:24:38 am »

I'm still processing all the new posts (sorry I've been missing) and I think that we could safely say that either spiritbears or ta are likely scum.  There are potential other options but those two could have been arguing for the benefit of detracting from meaningful conversation. Since we're looking close to soft deadline... vote: twistedarcher

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Re: RMM8 Innovation Inc. (Day 1 Start!)
« Reply #674 on: June 30, 2013, 11:39:12 am »

I'm still processing all the new posts (sorry I've been missing) and I think that we could safely say that either spiritbears or ta are likely scum.  There are potential other options but those two could have been arguing for the benefit of detracting from meaningful conversation. Since we're looking close to soft deadline... vote: twistedarcher

What brought you to this conclusion?
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