Or better, you should estimate in the current setup, if you lose by some bad shuffle, how many points you will end up with, say with a 5-3 Province split.
This is very interesting, as when one reaches the threshold, it may very well be better not to pursue any other VPs. $4 for 4 VP is a great deal. Anticipating this, the better strategy would then try to grab them early. But how early so that it cannot be beaten by a straightforward province strategy?
Seems to me there is even more fun than Duke. Well done.