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[SewerUrchin]

My game group got innovations a couple of weeks ago. We have one member who is convinced the game is 100% luck, and that getting metal working early guarantees victory. I have only played 4 games, but I can already tell this is not true.

So I proposed we play a series of games, base game only, 4 players with teams. In this series, we play a minimum of 11 games. Must win series by 2. He always starts with metalworking plus random card. Everyone else gets random cards.

So, with these parameters, any thoughts on best strategies for neutralizing the early benefits of him running amok with metalworking?

Last night, my team got off to a rocky start, and the other team jumped to an early lead with a metalworking on turn 1, and great draws while dogmaing it (the guy who holds the metal working belief was not in the game). They managed 5 achievements to our 1. I managed a victory by escalating up the tech ladder rapidly, getting to the 10s, scoring some 10s quickly for both me and my partner, and depleting the 10 pile. We won on point count when we couldn't draw a 10 or higher. Not sure this is strong enough to win in the proposed series.

My hope is to just illustrate that there is a lot more to the game than he is seeing, and keeping this game in regular rotation at our game nights.

Any thoughts for us before our series begins? Me and my team mate are pretty strong as far as game thinking goes, but we are all Noobs at the game itself.

[dondon151]

If you really want to convince your friend that the game isn't 100% luck, you should familiarize yourself with the cards in each age and know what to expect when you reach certain points in the game. Once you can strategize a bit more like that, then the game becomes less luck-based. It's still not a great idea to actively go for certain cards, but if you're behind due to bad luck, at least you now have that option.

Clothing counters Metalworking (though it's not as good with more players in the game) and Mapmaking whittles down a score pile built up on [1]s while increasing your own. Drawing quickly through Age 3 to deny Metalworking points will prevent him from achieving too many achievements early. Using factory-rich cards to score points is faster and will last longer than using Metalworking to score points.

Engineering and Gunpowder score your opponent's Metalworking if it's his top card. Road Building can transfer something like Archery or Oars to your opponent's board. And so on.

[popsofctown]

I don't know if that game series will prove anything.  My impression is that team innovation was almost barely playtested, and the game is designed for free-for-all or 1v1.

[Awaclus]

Shared Metalworking is very risky. So you should meld lots of castles as your opening.

[popsofctown]

Sharing Metalworking is not risky.

That's not what risk means.
Using your standard draw action instead of sharing Metalworking against a player using the Wheel is risky.

[SewerUrchin]

I don't know if that game series will prove anything.  My impression is that team innovation was almost barely playtested, and the game is designed for free-for-all or 1v1.

We are most likely to be playing 4 players with teams in the near future due to the social dynamics. I think it plays a little better than 4 player free for all based on my limited experience. All we need to prove is that Metal working is not such a game unbalancer as to make the game worthless. Clearly, the most pure version of the game is 1 on 1.

[SewerUrchin]

If you really want to convince your friend that the game isn't 100% luck, you should familiarize yourself with the cards in each age and know what to expect when you reach certain points in the game. Once you can strategize a bit more like that, then the game becomes less luck-based. It's still not a great idea to actively go for certain cards, but if you're behind due to bad luck, at least you now have that option.

Clothing counters Metalworking (though it's not as good with more players in the game) and Mapmaking whittles down a score pile built up on [1]s while increasing your own. Drawing quickly through Age 3 to deny Metalworking points will prevent him from achieving too many achievements early. Using factory-rich cards to score points is faster and will last longer than using Metalworking to score points.

Engineering and Gunpowder score your opponent's Metalworking if it's his top card. Road Building can transfer something like Archery or Oars to your opponent's board. And so on.

I'm not looking to play for certain cards as much as I am looking for any strategic ideas to neutralize Metalworking in the early game. So far, melding some castles seems like it will help. Playing some factories if we can get there should help. Playing clothing if an option should help. Drawing through age 3 should help.

[Awaclus]

Sharing Metalworking is not risky.

That's not what risk means.
Using your standard draw action instead of sharing Metalworking against a player using the Wheel is risky.

I'd still rather be the Wheel guy of that situation any time.

[timchen]

Sharing Metalworking is not risky.

That's not what risk means.
Using your standard draw action instead of sharing Metalworking against a player using the Wheel is risky.

Why? How are the two choices that different, except that using the metalworking has a much larger variance?

[dondon151]

I'm not looking to play for certain cards as much as I am looking for any strategic ideas to neutralize Metalworking in the early game.

Then you are asking the wrong question. I could just say, "cover up your opponent's Metalworking" or "steal Metalworking" or "attack your opponent's score pile," and all of them are "strategic" ideas. The thing is that you still need certain cards to execute your strategy, and so you should look out for these cards.

[SewerUrchin]

I'm not looking to play for certain cards as much as I am looking for any strategic ideas to neutralize Metalworking in the early game.

Then you are asking the wrong question. I could just say, "cover up your opponent's Metalworking" or "steal Metalworking" or "attack your opponent's score pile," and all of them are "strategic" ideas. The thing is that you still need certain cards to execute your strategy, and so you should look out for these cards.

I guess I'm expressing myself poorly. I am interested in any card combos and strategies that can help neutralize. Not just looking for a single magic bullet card. The advice so far seems to be on-track and helpful for the most part. The side conversations are moderately interesting. Interesting to read about EV vs. variance analyses in this context, as that is the exact way I think about games.

[theory]

Generally:

1) Attack their score.  Only Mapmaking really does this at this early age.

2) Match them in castles. 

3) Force a lot of fast draw (e.g. share The Wheel causing you to both draw a lot of 1's and 2's)

4) Score faster (e.g., Clothing)

5) Attack his board (City States, Road Building, etc.)

[BitTorrent]

Hmm...what games you cannot break down to 100% luck except chess... 

Every game with a dice/a deck of random cards = luck is involved, so if you consider 2 players who has the exact level of skills and the same set of rules/programs/preferences/mindset on choosing their actions then the game is 100% luck, since other factors were independent in this analysis. 

[Grujah]

Generally:

1) Attack their score.  Only Mapmaking really does this at this early age.

2) Match them in castles. 

3) Force a lot of fast draw (e.g. share The Wheel causing you to both draw a lot of 1's and 2's)

4) Score faster (e.g., Clothing)

5) Attack his board (City States, Road Building, etc.)

Share forced melds?

[Hideyoshi]

First of all, your experiment is actually not fair test and nothing can be told. The problem is if I know my partner must meld metalworking as opening, I must meld something with three castles to share the effect. That's why you may find that your opponents often score a lot of score at the beginning.

If you want to show your friend that metalworking is not unbalanced, just play normal game. Actually, I think in team play metalworking is even weaker than in 2P game. Anyway, if you want to check the unbalance of metalworking, you may need to play more to get familiar yourself into the game first, especially at some later age. Otherwise, you may just lose by metalworking by doing something wrong at the game.

Second, luck is involved in innovation game, but not 100%. Even if you are extremely lucky, if you use wrong strategy or do some silly things, you still get lose in the game.

[dondon151]

Yeah, I had a friend who thought Mathematics was broken when we first started playing the game. I've won the majority of recent games either mostly ignoring Mathematics when it's on my board or playing against it when he's using it and he doesn't think it's so broken anymore (he still thinks it's good, though. And it is.).

You just need to learn to play against Metalworking and your friend will eventually see that it's not so game-warping. Heck, I'm pretty sure that if you played your first 3 games opening Clothing and managed to rush achievements off that, your friend would think that Clothing is broken. If you teched up to Age 10 every time with Math, your friend would think that Math is broken. And so on.

[Awaclus]

Second, luck is involved in innovation game, but not 100%. Even if you are extremely lucky, if you use wrong strategy or do some silly things, you still get lose in the game.

Quite true: You might lose a game of Innovation only because of bad luck, but you can't really win a game of Innovation only because of good luck.

[Grujah]

Second, luck is involved in innovation game, but not 100%. Even if you are extremely lucky, if you use wrong strategy or do some silly things, you still get lose in the game.

Quite true: You might lose a game of Innovation only because of bad luck, but you can't really win a game of Innovation only because of good luck.

AI disagrees.

[Kirian]

Second, luck is involved in innovation game, but not 100%. Even if you are extremely lucky, if you use wrong strategy or do some silly things, you still get lose in the game.

Quite true: You might lose a game of Innovation only because of bad luck, but you can't really win a game of Innovation only because of good luck.

AI disagrees.

Even an AI has some inkling of how to play the game.  If you're simply playing randomly, you're talking maybe 0.1% of games can be won simply because of good luck.

[popsofctown]

Sharing Metalworking is not risky.

That's not what risk means.
Using your standard draw action instead of sharing Metalworking against a player using the Wheel is risky.

Why? How are the two choices that different, except that using the metalworking has a much larger variance?

Sharing Metalworking is the stronger play.
The only "variance" is, "how many cards get scored here will 'vary'".  Your odds of winning increase when you choose to share Metalworking.  Your odds of winning decrease if you choose not to.  There's no real practical reason to view giving your opponent a free monument and losing on turn 7 as being any different from your opponent wheeling into all the pieces necessary for Fermentation/Reformation or Wheeling into Math or Wheeling any of the other strategies wheel is good for.

[qmech]

Second, luck is involved in innovation game, but not 100%. Even if you are extremely lucky, if you use wrong strategy or do some silly things, you still get lose in the game.

Quite true: You might lose a game of Innovation only because of bad luck, but you can't really win a game of Innovation only because of good luck.

AI disagrees.

Even an AI has some inkling of how to play the game.  If you're simply playing randomly, you're talking maybe 0.1% of games can be won simply because of good luck.

Perhaps:

A.I. (10)
: Draw and score a 10.
: If Robotics and Software are top cards on any board, the single player with the lowest score wins.

with draw, meld and execute?  Although with Software it's at least partly your own fault.

[SewerUrchin]

Yeah, I had a friend who thought Mathematics was broken when we first started playing the game. I've won the majority of recent games either mostly ignoring Mathematics when it's on my board or playing against it when he's using it and he doesn't think it's so broken anymore (he still thinks it's good, though. And it is.).

You just need to learn to play against Metalworking and your friend will eventually see that it's not so game-warping. Heck, I'm pretty sure that if you played your first 3 games opening Clothing and managed to rush achievements off that, your friend would think that Clothing is broken. If you teched up to Age 10 every time with Math, your friend would think that Math is broken. And so on.

My friend is currently seeing the game as broken based on limited scope (he has played 2 games and made up his mind). I threw out this challenge to him as a way to show him that there are plenty of ways to combat a card like this. Being able to enact different strategies will appeal to him. It's why he loves dominion. I don't get why he is suddenly so negative after only 2 games of this. He was losing his first game when metal working ran hot for my partner, and he had no idea how to get back in the game, and was sure the game was unwinnable, and therefore broken. I think if he plays a few games and sees how thoughtful play can lead to victory, that this game is a lot like many of the luck based games he does like (dominion, poker, etc.).

My issue is I may not have a lot of opportunities to keep this game from dropping out of rotation with our group if I can't get him to see the game for what it is in this little series of ours. He is one of the few people who will play the "thinky" games as opposed to the social games, and I need more thinky games.

It's weird, he will happily play Ricochet Robots or Agricola, which are clearly skill driven. He will play Risk (though no one will play with him) and Settlers and dominion, all of which have luck components. He loves MTG, which has luck elements.

Based on the games he likes, he should like this game. It is a strong game with great replay-ability and variety.

[timchen]

Sharing Metalworking is the stronger play.
The only "variance" is, "how many cards get scored here will 'vary'".  Your odds of winning increase when you choose to share Metalworking.  Your odds of winning decrease if you choose not to.  There's no real practical reason to view giving your opponent a free monument and losing on turn 7 as being any different from your opponent wheeling into all the pieces necessary for Fermentation/Reformation or Wheeling into Math or Wheeling any of the other strategies wheel is good for.

Is this obvious at all? Why does sharing metalworking work against your opponent's draw from the wheel? If you are in age 1, sharing it draws one non-castle card for both of you and a random card for yourself, which does not benefit yourself more than a simple draw action. The chance for your opponent to draw clothing, CoL, and Pottery does not decrease. And if you consume age 1 by sharing the chance for him to get fermenting next turn will certainly increase. Therefore, in the case when you are sure that metalworking cannot draw to age 2 (more than 2 non-castle card remaining in the deck) I don't see how sharing it can "stop" the wheel.

The one possible advantage is probably when drawing into age two, sharing metalworking has a good chance to score fermenting, which certainly is more easily drawn by the wheeling player. But by that time if you already have leaf advantage you don't need to worry about that.

Or maybe it is just a general feeling that one needs to accelerate the game toward higher ages to get more powerful cards to overcome the deficit from the initial cards? It is kind of hard to nail down how that really works however...

[BitTorrent]

Sometimes it is all about how tough you are:

http://scorepile.org/gamelog/201304/17/game-20130417-094832-1efd98af.html

First action gived him 2 achievements, while I get the next 6. (*I know he will get Monument as soon as my first clothing scored those non-castle cards, he will get it by Metalworking twice anyway)

http://scorepile.org/gamelog/201304/17/game-20130417-090638-e8afbc7c.html

No real answer to an early Clothing Monument + Construction Empire, I just found a dirty equalizer (Coke + Shrapnel which is the dirtiest demand I have ever thought of) and strike for a comeback victory.

Yea, luck take parts. But skills will offset some of the participation of luck. I would say a high-level game is about 30% of luck and 70% of skills.

[KingsSkort]

Sharing Metalworking is not risky.

That's not what risk means.
Using your standard draw action instead of sharing Metalworking against a player using the Wheel is risky.

Why? How are the two choices that different, except that using the metalworking has a much larger variance?

Sharing Metalworking is the stronger play.
The only "variance" is, "how many cards get scored here will 'vary'".  Your odds of winning increase when you choose to share Metalworking.  Your odds of winning decrease if you choose not to.  There's no real practical reason to view giving your opponent a free monument and losing on turn 7 as being any different from your opponent wheeling into all the pieces necessary for Fermentation/Reformation or Wheeling into Math or Wheeling any of the other strategies wheel is good for.

I don't understand the argument that sharing MW isn't risky. Your opponent could score a bunch of points and you could draw writing and code of laws. That's a risk you take when you share MW. I think you're arguing that the risks of sharing MW are less than the upsides of doing so (or the risks of not sharing MW), and that you should choose the strategy that has the best average result, regardless of whether it's risky or not. That's generally true, but it's still helpful to identify strategies as more or less risky based on how different the possible outcomes are. For example, if you're playing a weaker player or are ahead in the game, you may want to choose strategies that are worse but safer to maximize your chance of winning the game.