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Author Topic: Project: Optimal luck for Vanilla strategies  (Read 2558 times)

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Morgrim7

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Project: Optimal luck for Vanilla strategies
« on: April 15, 2013, 07:53:29 am »
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In a regular Smithy BM game (Buying only Smithy, Copper, Silver, Gold, Province, Duchy, Estate) what is optimal luck? How about for a simple BV/Wharf engine? Or Workshop/Gardens?
Optimal luck meaning you may re-arrange cards in your deck however you want. Shelters are optional.
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Squidd

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Re: Project: Optimal luck for Vanilla strategies
« Reply #1 on: April 15, 2013, 07:59:00 am »
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If you're buying Copper in Smithy-BM, I think your luck was suboptimal.
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Morgrim7

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Re: Project: Optimal luck for Vanilla strategies
« Reply #2 on: April 15, 2013, 08:00:13 am »
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Quote from: Squidd on April 15, 2013, 07:59:00 am
If you're buying Copper in Smithy-BM, I think your luck was suboptimal.
Estates and Duchies too. But still, thats the definition of BM, and this is f.ds.
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"Oh sweet merciful heavens.

I sit here, lost amongst the cloud, that which is the brain of the Morgrim Mod. Perhaps I will learn the inner workings of that storied mind. Perhaps I will simply go mad.

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DStu

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Re: Project: Optimal luck for Vanilla strategies
« Reply #3 on: April 15, 2013, 08:05:42 am »
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What is your goal? Fastest way to 4 Provinces? 5? 8? Against an average luck opponent? Worst luck opponent?
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Morgrim7

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Re: Project: Optimal luck for Vanilla strategies
« Reply #4 on: April 15, 2013, 08:09:33 am »
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Quote from: DStu on April 15, 2013, 08:05:42 am
What is your goal? Fastest way to 4 Provinces? 5? 8? Against an average luck opponent? Worst luck opponent?
No opponent, probably 4 Provinces.
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"Oh sweet merciful heavens.

I sit here, lost amongst the cloud, that which is the brain of the Morgrim Mod. Perhaps I will learn the inner workings of that storied mind. Perhaps I will simply go mad.

Mad, I tell you.

Maaaaaaaaaaaaad." -Voltgloss
Dominion Notation: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=7265.msg206246#msg206246

Geronimoo

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Re: Project: Optimal luck for Vanilla strategies
« Reply #5 on: April 15, 2013, 08:47:21 am »
+1
Simulator says Smithy BM fastest to 4 Provinces is 9 turns (1 million simulations)
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Tables

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Re: Project: Optimal luck for Vanilla strategies
« Reply #6 on: April 15, 2013, 08:58:51 am »
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1 million simulations is far from certain to find the optimal though.
S = Silver
M = Smithy
/ = Reshuffle
() = Drawn from Smithy
T1: CCCEE > S
T2: CCCCE > M
T3: /MSCCC(CEE) > G
T4: ECCC/C > M
T5: MCCES(GCE)> P
T6: /MGCCC(SEE) > P
T7: MEPCC(CC/G)

Well, maybe some adjustments can be made, but it doesn't look like 4 Provinces is possible in 8 turns.
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Quote from: Witherweaver on October 29, 2014, 03:10:13 pm
Quote from: Donald X. on October 28, 2014, 04:29:33 pm
...spin-offs are still better for all of the previously cited reasons.
But not strictly better, because the spinoff can have a different cost than the expansion.

ghostofmars

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Re: Project: Optimal luck for Vanilla strategies
« Reply #7 on: April 15, 2013, 10:28:41 am »
+1
8 turns Smithy solution (Morgrim notation + ";" for reshuffle)
T1/2 [Sm,S]
T3 (3C,S,Sm) Sm(+C,N,O) [G]
T4 (3C,H;Sm) Sm(+G,2C) [P]/H/
T5 (2C,S,N,O) [Sm]
T6 (;N,2Sm,2C) N Sm(+3C) Sm(+C,S,P) [P]
T7 (C,G,O;C,Sm) Sm(+3C) [P]
T8 (2C,S,N,Sm) N Sm(+2P;Sm) Sm(+G,C,P) [P]
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DG

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Re: Project: Optimal luck for Vanilla strategies
« Reply #8 on: April 15, 2013, 12:15:00 pm »
+1
A difficulty in calculating this for some strategies, for example workshop/gardens, is the need to deviate from optimal strategy to get an optimal result. How valid is a solution that requires the most perfect draws but completely fails otherwise?
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Tables

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Re: Project: Optimal luck for Vanilla strategies
« Reply #9 on: April 15, 2013, 12:31:10 pm »
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Quote from: ghostofmars on April 15, 2013, 10:28:41 am
8 turns Smithy solution (Morgrim notation + ";" for reshuffle)
T1/2 [Sm,S]
T3 (3C,S,Sm) Sm(+C,N,O) [G]
T4 (3C,H;Sm) Sm(+G,2C) [P]/H/
T5 (2C,S,N,O) [Sm]
T6 (;N,2Sm,2C) N Sm(+3C) Sm(+C,S,P) [P]
T7 (C,G,O;C,Sm) Sm(+3C) [P]
T8 (2C,S,N,Sm) N Sm(+2P;Sm) Sm(+G,C,P) [P]

Ah, yeah, I didn't think of using Shelters. That definitely helps.
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Quote from: Witherweaver on October 29, 2014, 03:10:13 pm
Quote from: Donald X. on October 28, 2014, 04:29:33 pm
...spin-offs are still better for all of the previously cited reasons.
But not strictly better, because the spinoff can have a different cost than the expansion.

LastFootnote

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Re: Project: Optimal luck for Vanilla strategies
« Reply #10 on: April 15, 2013, 02:03:48 pm »
+1
Quote from: DG on April 15, 2013, 12:15:00 pm
A difficulty in calculating this for some strategies, for example workshop/gardens, is the need to deviate from optimal strategy to get an optimal result. How valid is a solution that requires the most perfect draws but completely fails otherwise?

Agreed. This is a project for the Puzzles forum. Any "strategy" requiring optimal shuffles isn't really useful in actual Dominion games.
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