Thanks!
This is really interesting. We are starting to move down the analytics route that Dominion has had for a long time.
Some related questions that came up when I read this:
1- win % based on getting the FIRST achievement
2- expansion on 1: win % based on achievement situation (ie. I have 3 achievement, you have 4, what is the prob of each of us winning?)
3- win based on tech: win % based on both players position on top tech on board
4- win based on icons: win % based on domination in different icons vs other player
5- factor in turns
6- combine two or more of the above
This is similar to the card ratio analysis done for Dominion, but it could provide some good rules of thumb: knowing that everything is an edge case, on average, which player is in a better position to win:
P1- 3 achievements, level 3 tech, 1 icon domination
P2- 0 achievements, level 6 tech, 4 icon domination
Etc.
It would be nice to start applying data to some of the intuition people are developing.
Ed