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Author Topic: Feodum vs. Duke?  (Read 7555 times)

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AdamH

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Feodum vs. Duke?
« on: March 20, 2013, 02:04:12 pm »
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Played an IRL game last night. The relevant cards were Develop, Feodum, Warehouse, Embassy, Duke, and there were no $2-cost cards (other than Estates, obv.). No Shelters, no colonies. There was some other $5 card, but I'm pretty sure it was never played, it was just a Develop target or something.

I opened Silver/Warehouse, got a few Silvers, a single Embassy, then went hard for Duchies, then Dukes. On $4 or less I would get Silvers but I got up to three Warehouses.

My opponent opened Develop/Feodum, didn't collide them on the first shuffle, but looked to collide them by buying/gaining more copies of each and did a couple of times. He scooped up all the Feoda quickly, and ended up trashing three of them. I think he had 20-something Silvers total (Feoda were worth 5 each) and the Silver pile was in danger of running out by the end of the game.

The game ended on Provinces. He got all 8 of them. I got all 8 Duchies, 6 Dukes, several Estates. He won by like 11 points I think.

And I didn't understand it.

I hate blaming shuffle luck for a loss, but the more I think about it, the more I believe that if we play that game 10 times, I would win 9 of them. I'm pretty sure at least three shuffles went terribly for me, meaning 4 or 5 $4 hands, a $10 hand (where I bought a Duchy, which is the correct play, yes?), and then with my Embassy and two Warehouses missing the shuffle. I just don't see Develop as being very good support for Feodum. I just think I should have been able to drain the Dukes before he could get all the Provinces.

Can this be simulated? If Develop helps a Feodum deck, then what's the way to play it? Do you Develop Coppers? How many Develops do you get?

I realize contesting Duchies might be a good idea too. I'm mostly looking to see if I have a right to whine about bad shuffle luck (even though I firmly believe you make your own shuffle luck. AUGH! I'm so conflicted!). Did I play it close to correctly?

I'd attempt to simulate it myself, but I'm not aware of a simulator that supports Feodum.
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cluckyb

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Re: Feodum vs. Duke?
« Reply #1 on: March 20, 2013, 05:00:17 pm »
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Played an IRL game last night. The relevant cards were Develop, Feodum, Warehouse, Embassy, Duke, and there were no $2-cost cards (other than Estates, obv.). No Shelters, no colonies. There was some other $5 card, but I'm pretty sure it was never played, it was just a Develop target or something.

I opened Silver/Warehouse, got a few Silvers, a single Embassy, then went hard for Duchies, then Dukes. On $4 or less I would get Silvers but I got up to three Warehouses.

My opponent opened Develop/Feodum, didn't collide them on the first shuffle, but looked to collide them by buying/gaining more copies of each and did a couple of times. He scooped up all the Feoda quickly, and ended up trashing three of them. I think he had 20-something Silvers total (Feoda were worth 5 each) and the Silver pile was in danger of running out by the end of the game.

The game ended on Provinces. He got all 8 of them. I got all 8 Duchies, 6 Dukes, several Estates. He won by like 11 points I think.

And I didn't understand it.

I hate blaming shuffle luck for a loss, but the more I think about it, the more I believe that if we play that game 10 times, I would win 9 of them. I'm pretty sure at least three shuffles went terribly for me, meaning 4 or 5 $4 hands, a $10 hand (where I bought a Duchy, which is the correct play, yes?), and then with my Embassy and two Warehouses missing the shuffle. I just don't see Develop as being very good support for Feodum. I just think I should have been able to drain the Dukes before he could get all the Provinces.

Can this be simulated? If Develop helps a Feodum deck, then what's the way to play it? Do you Develop Coppers? How many Develops do you get?

I realize contesting Duchies might be a good idea too. I'm mostly looking to see if I have a right to whine about bad shuffle luck (even though I firmly believe you make your own shuffle luck. AUGH! I'm so conflicted!). Did I play it close to correctly?

I'd attempt to simulate it myself, but I'm not aware of a simulator that supports Feodum.

Develop + Feodum seems pretty nice to me. You can get 4 silvers, one of them top-decked and a 5 for your Feodum. So that trashing alone was +20vp, and it filled his deck with silver so he hit 8 where you were struggling to just get 5.
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Robz888

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Re: Feodum vs. Duke?
« Reply #2 on: March 20, 2013, 05:10:00 pm »
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What about just doing Embassy into Province? Because Duke doesn't have like the best support ever here. The problem is you might actually want more than the usual number of Embassies for that and the more you buy, the more you help your opponent's Feodums. So Feodum might just be the right thing to do against someone who needs to rely on Embassy.
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AdamH

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Re: Feodum vs. Duke?
« Reply #3 on: March 20, 2013, 05:12:21 pm »
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I thought about that, but with the abundance of sifting on the board, I thought it would lend itself better to a Duchy/Duke strategy. I recall somewhere seeing that BM+Duchy/Duke was better than BM+Provinces, though that doesn't mean anything even if it was true.

Perhaps Embassy into Province is another thing to simulate against here...
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Robz888

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Re: Feodum vs. Duke?
« Reply #4 on: March 20, 2013, 05:14:46 pm »
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I thought about that, but with the abundance of sifting on the board, I thought it would lend itself better to a Duchy/Duke strategy. I recall somewhere seeing that BM+Duchy/Duke was better than BM+Provinces, though that doesn't mean anything even if it was true.

Perhaps Embassy into Province is another thing to simulate against here...

I think that's generally true that BM Duchy/Duke is better than BM/Province... but maybe not better against some other alt-VP strategy. Like a rock/paper/scissors thing. Because Duchy/Duke takes longer than Province, but usually by the time a Province player is collecting Province # 6 and 7, the Duchy/Duke person has overtaken him. Duchy/Duke might just give Feodum too much time here.
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Re: Feodum vs. Duke?
« Reply #5 on: March 20, 2013, 05:16:03 pm »
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Also, I don't know if BM Embassy specifically goes better for Duchy/Duke or Province. Embassy can sustain $8 hands pretty well. I bet the other support matters and I don't see anything else that Duke wants here (like Ironworks or something).
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dondon151

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Re: Feodum vs. Duke?
« Reply #6 on: March 20, 2013, 05:28:55 pm »
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I'm kind of feeling Develop/Feodum into Embassy for Provinces here. Getting to $8 is pretty easy with all of the Silvers.
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Awaclus

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Re: Feodum vs. Duke?
« Reply #7 on: March 20, 2013, 05:51:56 pm »
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BM/Embassy/Duke wins 57/40 against BM/Embassy/Province.
Horse Trader/Gardens wins 58/34 against BM/Embassy/Duke.
BM/Embassy/Province wins 83/13 against Horse Trader/Gardens.

I think that Develop/Feodum is probably at least as good as Horse Trader/Gardens against BM/Embassy/Duke.
« Last Edit: March 20, 2013, 06:02:25 pm by Awaclus »
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Re: Feodum vs. Duke?
« Reply #8 on: June 21, 2013, 04:35:29 pm »
+2

Short answer:  My simulation shows DuchyDukeEmbassyWarehouse strategy winning in a 3:2 ratio over DevelopFeodum. It's a little better, but not a huge amount.  Not the 9:1 ratio you were hoping for.

DuchyDukeWarehouseEmbassy vs FeodumDevelop

DuchyDukeWarehouseEmbassy won: 58.58 percent of the time.
FeodumDevelop won: 40.14 percent of the time.
Ties: 1.28 percent of the time.

Both strategies seem better than big money.  That's always a good sign that they are decently coded.

DuchyDukeWarehouseEmbassy vs BigMoney

DuchyDukeWarehouseEmbassy : 62.46 percent of the time.
BigMoney: 35.65 percent of the time.
Ties: 1.89 percent of the time.

FeodumDevelop vs BigMoney

FeodumDevelop won: 72.77 percent of the time.
BigMoney won: 25.36 percent of the time.
Ties: 1.87 percent of the time.


There's a lot of details missing on how to code up the strategies.   I coded up feodem/develop so it tries to obtain 12 silvers, and after that always maximizes it's points when choosing whether to trash a feodum.   The feodum AI does trash coppers, but at low priority.

The simulator probably isn't replicating how you actually played though.   I find that seldom does the feodom player actually make it to 8 provinces.  Usually, the game piles out instead.

Example game where DuchyDuke won:

Game ended in 33 turns.
Player1 Won!
Player1 total score: 91
  Copper(7), Duchy(8 ), Duke(8 ), Embassy(1), Estate(3), Silver(8 ), Warehouse(2),
Player2 total score: 72
  Copper(3), Develop(2), Embassy(2), Feodum(6), Province(3), Silver(29),
Trash contains: Copper(4), Estate(3), Feodum(2),

Example game where Feodum won:

Game ended in 32 turns.
Player2 Won!
Player1 total score: 80
  Copper(7), Duchy(7), Duke(8 ), Embassy(1), Estate(3), Silver(12), Warehouse(3),
Player2 total score: 87
  Copper(4), Develop(2), Duchy(1), Embassy(1), Feodum(6), Province(5), Silver(27),
Trash contains: Copper(3), Estate(3), Feodum(2),

Here's what I came up with based off of your description:  (hopefully you can infer from the c# code what the strategy was, cause it would be too time consuming to write up the details ;) )

Quote
I opened Silver/Warehouse, got a few Silvers, a single Embassy, then went hard for Duchies, then Dukes. On $4 or less I would get Silvers but I got up to three Warehouses.
Code: [Select]
private static IGetMatchingCard PurchaseOrder()
            {
                var highPriority = new CardPickByPriority(
                     CardAcceptance.For<CardTypes.Embassy>(gameState => CountAllOwned<CardTypes.Embassy>(gameState) < 1),
                     CardAcceptance.For<CardTypes.Duchy>(),
                     CardAcceptance.For<CardTypes.Duke>());

                var buildOrder = new CardPickByBuildOrder(
                    new CardTypes.Silver(),
                    new CardTypes.Warehouse(),
                    new CardTypes.Silver(),
                    new CardTypes.Silver(),
                    new CardTypes.Silver(),
                    new CardTypes.Silver(),
                    new CardTypes.Warehouse(),
                    new CardTypes.Silver(),
                    new CardTypes.Silver(),
                    new CardTypes.Silver(),
                    new CardTypes.Silver(),
                    new CardTypes.Warehouse());

                var lowPriority = new CardPickByPriority(
                           CardAcceptance.For<CardTypes.Silver>());

                return new CardPickConcatenator(highPriority, buildOrder, lowPriority);
            }

Quote
My opponent opened Develop/Feodum, didn't collide them on the first shuffle, but looked to collide them by buying/gaining more copies of each and did a couple of times. He scooped up all the Feoda quickly, and ended up trashing three of them. I think he had 20-something Silvers total (Feoda were worth 5 each) and the Silver pile was in danger of running out by the end of the game.
Code: [Select]
private static IGetMatchingCard PurchaseOrder()
            {
                return new CardPickByPriority(
                           CardAcceptance.For<CardTypes.Province>(),
                           CardAcceptance.For<CardTypes.Develop>(ShouldGainDevelop),
                           CardAcceptance.For<CardTypes.Feodum>(ShouldGainFeodum),
                           CardAcceptance.For<CardTypes.Silver>());
            }

            private static IGetMatchingCard GainOrder()
            {
                return new CardPickByPriority(
                           CardAcceptance.For<CardTypes.Develop>(ShouldGainDevelop),
                           CardAcceptance.For<CardTypes.Feodum>(ShouldGainFeodum),
                           CardAcceptance.For<CardTypes.Silver>(),
                           CardAcceptance.For<CardTypes.Duchy>(),
                           CardAcceptance.For<CardTypes.Feodum>(),
                           CardAcceptance.For<CardTypes.Develop>());
            }

            private static CardPickByPriority TrashOrder()
            {
                return new CardPickByPriority(
                           CardAcceptance.For<CardTypes.Duchy>(),
                           CardAcceptance.For<CardTypes.Feodum>(ShouldTrashFeodum),
                           CardAcceptance.For<CardTypes.Estate>(),
                           CardAcceptance.For<CardTypes.Copper>());
            }

            private static bool ShouldGainDevelop(GameState gameState)
            {
                return CountAllOwned<CardTypes.Develop>(gameState) < 2 &&
                       CountAllOwned<CardTypes.Feodum>(gameState) >= CountAllOwned<CardTypes.Develop>(gameState);
            }

            private static bool ShouldPlayDevelop(GameState gameState)
            {
                var currentPlayer = gameState.players.CurrentPlayer;

                Type result;
                if (currentPlayer.Hand.Where(card => card.Is<CardTypes.Develop>()).Count() > 1)
                {
                    result = TrashOrder().GetMatchingCard(gameState, card => currentPlayer.Hand.HasCard(card));
                }
                else
                {
                    result = TrashOrder().GetMatchingCard(gameState, card => currentPlayer.Hand.HasCard(card) && !card.Is<CardTypes.Develop>());
                }

                return result != null;
            }

            private static bool ShouldTrashFeodum(GameState gameState)
            {
                int countFeodumRemaining = gameState.GetPile<CardTypes.Feodum>().Count();

                int countSilvers = CountAllOwned<CardTypes.Silver>(gameState);
                int countFeodum = CountAllOwned<CardTypes.Feodum>(gameState);

                if (countSilvers < 12)
                {
                    return true;
                }

                int scoreTrashNothing = CardTypes.Feodum.VictoryCountForSilver(countSilvers) * countFeodum;
                int scoreTrashFeodum = CardTypes.Feodum.VictoryCountForSilver((countSilvers + 4)) * (countFeodum - 1);

                return scoreTrashFeodum > scoreTrashNothing;
            }

            private static bool ShouldGainFeodum(GameState gameState)
            {
                int countFeodumRemaining = gameState.GetPile<CardTypes.Feodum>().Count();

                int countSilvers = CountAllOwned<CardTypes.Silver>(gameState);
                int countFeodum = CountAllOwned<CardTypes.Feodum>(gameState);

                if (countSilvers < 1)
                {
                    return false;
                }

                int scoreGainFeodum = CardTypes.Feodum.VictoryCountForSilver(countSilvers) * (countFeodum + 1);
                int scoreGainSilver = CardTypes.Feodum.VictoryCountForSilver((countSilvers + 1)) * (countFeodum);

                return scoreGainFeodum > scoreGainSilver;
            }
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AdamH

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Re: Feodum vs. Duke?
« Reply #9 on: June 24, 2013, 10:51:08 am »
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These are the types of answers I was looking for. Very interesting and thank you.
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Re: Feodum vs. Duke?
« Reply #10 on: September 26, 2013, 05:49:22 pm »
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Short answer:  My simulation shows DuchyDukeEmbassyWarehouse strategy winning in a 3:2 ratio over DevelopFeodum. It's a little better, but not a huge amount.  Not the 9:1 ratio you were hoping for....

it seems as though the feodum player would have a relatively easy time denying duke/duchy by developing feodum into duchy/develop (which becomes next turn gold/feodum).  The duke player should never be able to get 8 duchies in this match-up.
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Re: Feodum vs. Duke?
« Reply #11 on: September 27, 2013, 02:38:43 am »
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Both strategies seem better than big money.  That's always a good sign that they are decently coded.

DuchyDukeWarehouseEmbassy vs BigMoney

DuchyDukeWarehouseEmbassy : 62.46 percent of the time.
BigMoney: 35.65 percent of the time.
Ties: 1.89 percent of the time.

FeodumDevelop vs BigMoney

FeodumDevelop won: 72.77 percent of the time.
BigMoney won: 25.36 percent of the time.
Ties: 1.87 percent of the time.

Well, it's kinda hard to find a strategy that performs worse than Big Money. The thing Duke and Feodum have to compete with is not BM but Embassy/BM, which is damn strong on its own (maybe you've done that though and only called it plain Big Money?)...

The tricky part is how much you want to build up before going green. Probably like 2 Embassies and 1 Gold, but that largely depends on what your opponet's doing. I feel that this can compete with both alternative strategies - maybe even a bit better against Duchy/Duke, which is a bit more predictable, and you can very well live with 3 Duchies and still be fine I guess (you probably want a 3rd Embassy if it comes to that).
« Last Edit: September 27, 2013, 02:40:55 am by kn1tt3r »
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Re: Feodum vs. Duke?
« Reply #12 on: September 27, 2013, 06:05:21 pm »
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Quote
Well, it's kinda hard to find a strategy that performs worse than Big Money

You'ld be surprised.  Lots of things I have simulated lose to big money out of the gate.   

Did you know that buying lookout only is worse than buying big money?   Me and my friends almost always buy lookout when it's on the table, because we heavily bias towards any trashing option - but maybe we shouldn't

56.6% win for BigMoney
38.6% win for Lookout
4.8% there is a tie.



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Re: Feodum vs. Duke?
« Reply #13 on: September 27, 2013, 07:05:40 pm »
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Quote
Well, it's kinda hard to find a strategy that performs worse than Big Money

You'ld be surprised.  Lots of things I have simulated lose to big money out of the gate.   

Did you know that buying lookout only is worse than buying big money?   Me and my friends almost always buy lookout when it's on the table, because we heavily bias towards any trashing option - but maybe we shouldn't

56.6% win for BigMoney
38.6% win for Lookout
4.8% there is a tie.

What are your buy and play rules for Lookout?

Also keep in mind that trashing is not great unless you do something afterwards.  Usually that means building an engine.  IIRC, Chapel-BM also looks loses to straight BM (or at least BM comes really close).

Edit: fixed a brain typo.
« Last Edit: September 28, 2013, 01:01:15 am by eHalcyon »
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Re: Feodum vs. Duke?
« Reply #14 on: September 27, 2013, 08:21:41 pm »
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Quote
What are your buy and play rules for Lookout?

Always buy exactly one lookout soon as you can.

Only play lookout when the count of trashable cards in your remaining deck (not your hand or discard - just your deck) is at least in a 40% ratio.  If you have too many good cards coming up, dont play lookout, else you might have to trash a good one.

At game beginning, trashable cards are copper, estate and shelters.  In the end game, after provinces are being bought, only coppers and shelters are trashable.
   
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Re: Feodum vs. Duke?
« Reply #15 on: September 28, 2013, 10:50:22 am »
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Quote
What are your buy and play rules for Lookout?

Always buy exactly one lookout soon as you can.

Only play lookout when the count of trashable cards in your remaining deck (not your hand or discard - just your deck) is at least in a 40% ratio.  If you have too many good cards coming up, dont play lookout, else you might have to trash a good one.

At game beginning, trashable cards are copper, estate and shelters.  In the end game, after provinces are being bought, only coppers and shelters are trashable.
 

On your last shuffle, everything but points are trashable, and you get kind of a spy effect...
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Re: Feodum vs. Duke?
« Reply #16 on: September 28, 2013, 03:11:02 pm »
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Quote
On your last shuffle, everything but points are trashable, and you get kind of a spy effect..
Quote

I agree in theory.  In practice, I suspect this is not likely to make a huge difference in performance.  It is only beneficial when you happen to have 2/3 of your next 3 cards as treasures.

Also, I have not tried yet to have the bots figure out when the last reshuffle is ...   On big money like bots, this should be relatively easy (though not trivial).   On more chaining style decks, or in decks with cards like rebuild, this is much more difficult.
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