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Author Topic: Marauder  (Read 18073 times)

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sandstorm

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Re: Marauder
« Reply #25 on: March 22, 2013, 03:06:29 am »
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2) I am using the BM as a metric to compare it to other cards strength.  If you were to take every terminal's BM strategy and rank them in order of their winrate vs BMU, it would give you a reasonable ball park estimate of a cards power level.  Some would be too high (Courtyard) and some wouldn't make sense (Chapel, Coppersmith, etc.) but for the most part the rankings wouldn't be crazy.

I would argue that this is a poor (and overused) metric. It causes people to overrate cards that are good in BM strategies compared to cards that are good in engines. Envoy BM does better than Lab BM. But is Envoy better than Lab? Probably not. It's not just trashers and megaturn cards that get underrated. There are general biases against non-cursing attacks, villages, things that work better in trashed decks, etc...

Well its like I said.  A ballpark estimate.  You definitely need to look at the list critically when talking about engines.  And BM results are almost meaningless when talking about non-terminals (such as Lab and Villages).  I am curious to know which cards you think are biased against because of BM results?  I don't think I've ever seen anyone say that Envoy is better than Lab before but maybe I've missed that.
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WanderingWinder

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Re: Marauder
« Reply #26 on: March 22, 2013, 07:02:02 am »
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2) I am using the BM as a metric to compare it to other cards strength.  If you were to take every terminal's BM strategy and rank them in order of their winrate vs BMU, it would give you a reasonable ball park estimate of a cards power level.  Some would be too high (Courtyard) and some wouldn't make sense (Chapel, Coppersmith, etc.) but for the most part the rankings wouldn't be crazy.

I would argue that this is a poor (and overused) metric. It causes people to overrate cards that are good in BM strategies compared to cards that are good in engines. Envoy BM does better than Lab BM. But is Envoy better than Lab? Probably not. It's not just trashers and megaturn cards that get underrated. There are general biases against non-cursing attacks, villages, things that work better in trashed decks, etc...

Well its like I said.  A ballpark estimate.  You definitely need to look at the list critically when talking about engines.  And BM results are almost meaningless when talking about non-terminals (such as Lab and Villages).  I am curious to know which cards you think are biased against because of BM results?  I don't think I've ever seen anyone say that Envoy is better than Lab before but maybe I've missed that.
Well, I think the point is that nobody rates them this way because nobody uses this metric. That everyone agrees lab>envoy is evidence against your metric rather than for it. Ad certainly, if this is the case an appreciable amount of the time (and every village says hello here), then you really can't use it as the basis of a justification for ANY card A>card B.

sandstorm

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Re: Marauder
« Reply #27 on: March 22, 2013, 10:57:58 am »
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2) I am using the BM as a metric to compare it to other cards strength.  If you were to take every terminal's BM strategy and rank them in order of their winrate vs BMU, it would give you a reasonable ball park estimate of a cards power level.  Some would be too high (Courtyard) and some wouldn't make sense (Chapel, Coppersmith, etc.) but for the most part the rankings wouldn't be crazy.

I would argue that this is a poor (and overused) metric. It causes people to overrate cards that are good in BM strategies compared to cards that are good in engines. Envoy BM does better than Lab BM. But is Envoy better than Lab? Probably not. It's not just trashers and megaturn cards that get underrated. There are general biases against non-cursing attacks, villages, things that work better in trashed decks, etc...

Well its like I said.  A ballpark estimate.  You definitely need to look at the list critically when talking about engines.  And BM results are almost meaningless when talking about non-terminals (such as Lab and Villages).  I am curious to know which cards you think are biased against because of BM results?  I don't think I've ever seen anyone say that Envoy is better than Lab before but maybe I've missed that.
Well, I think the point is that nobody rates them this way because nobody uses this metric. That everyone agrees lab>envoy is evidence against your metric rather than for it. Ad certainly, if this is the case an appreciable amount of the time (and every village says hello here), then you really can't use it as the basis of a justification for ANY card A>card B.
Is everyone missing the part where I said terminals only?
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eHalcyon

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Re: Marauder
« Reply #28 on: March 22, 2013, 12:53:27 pm »
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You already mentioned some exceptions that wouldn't tank properly by your metric - Chapel, Coppersmith - aligned but I think there are enough that the ranking vs BMU is not so helpful. Even among terminals there are plenty of cards that are much more suited to an engine strategy than BM. Using them in BMX and ranking against BMU won't account for that power.
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KingZog3

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Re: Marauder
« Reply #29 on: March 22, 2013, 03:12:34 pm »
+1

Well its like I said.  A ballpark estimate.  You definitely need to look at the list critically when talking about engines.  And BM results are almost meaningless when talking about non-terminals (such as Lab and Villages).  I am curious to know which cards you think are biased against because of BM results?  I don't think I've ever seen anyone say that Envoy is better than Lab before but maybe I've missed that.

Quite simply, cards have different purposes. Using everything in BM means you are probably not using a lot of cards as intended. I agree it can be a start point for ranking some cards, but I don't think those results will be anywhere near a final result of a card's power.
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sandstorm

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Re: Marauder
« Reply #30 on: March 22, 2013, 09:30:14 pm »
+2

The BM ranking list is meant as a starting point for conversation and further analysis.  It is not meant to be an absolute rigid gospel.  Valuable insights can still be gained from the data when comparing cards of similar type.  Let me explain what I mean by using Marauder as an example.

Junking attacks are known to be quite strong in Dominion.  They make engine building difficult and are shown to be very strong in BM simulation.  Marauder is shown to be weak in BM simulation.  So the question arises "Why are junking attacks like Sea Hag, Witch, and Mountebank so much better at BM than Marauder?"  The answer to this question may also be important to engines (and in fact is) since it must be a specific property of Marauder.

An initial guess at this question would be "Perhaps it is because Marauder gives out ruins instead of curses".  However, when we look at Cultist we see that it does well against BM.  So what are the differences between Marauder and Cultist?

Marauder gains a Spoils while Cultist provides +2 cards and the ability to play another Cultist.  This shows us that Marauder provides a delayed economy boost while Cultist provides a cycling boost and the ability to possibly attack/cycle again.  Therefore, by looking at sample games we can conclude that Cultist will junk your opponents deck faster than Marauder and that this effect is stronger at defeating BM than gaining a Spoils.  This is important for engine building as well.  If you are building against Cultists you are going to be swarmed with junk faster than if playing against Marauder.  Marauder also gains a Spoils which further delays the time until the next Marauder play.

However, then the question kind of goes backwards.  "Sea Hag does not provide any cycling.  Why does it outperform Marauder against BM?"

The two reasons are that Sea Hag junks immediately to the top of an opponents deck and that curses are always dead cards as well as -1 vp.  The gaining of Spoils is not strong enough to compensate for these weaknesses in a BM match.  This is important when building engines.  Sea Hags attack often replaces a Copper with Curse during the early turns of the game.  This can prevent key purchases of 5 cost cards or force the purchase of nothing/2 cost card.  As we have learned from experience, the first few turns often have the biggest impact on the rest of the game.  Marauder can't possibly have any impact on an opponent until Turn 5 at the earliest and often it is later.  Even then, 2 of the 5 ruins (Abandoned Mine/Ruined Library) can be barely noticeable if they show up in a hand without other actions.  Survivors can be helpful early on as well.  As we have seen with Cultist, ruins are much more painful when they are given in large quantities causing them to behave more like Curses.  We begin to see Marauder as a card that takes some time to cause damage to opponents and, more specifically, does little harm to opponents during the critical early turns of the game.

The next thing we need to look at more closely is Spoils.  Simulation has shown us that gaining Spoils alone is not very powerful against BM.  So what is the best use of Spoils?  For the answer to this question I think about my experiences with another Spoils gainer, Bandit Camp.  Bandit Camp is great for draw your deck engines because it allows the spending power of gold without being worried that that gold will get in the way of starting the engine up on your turn.  Marauder can be used in much the same way.  In an engine you are able to play Marauder frequently, making it damaging like Cultist while also generating some solid spending money.  This is where Marauder becomes a true gem.

Based on this analysis I come to the conclusion that by opening with Marauder it is almost as if you have opened with a curse.  Your deck is not yet ready to use Marauder to its full capacity and the gaining of Spoils is too slow to help you get there.  Sea Hag's attack is powerful enough that it compensates for the early tempo loss.  Marauder's is not.
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DG

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Re: Marauder
« Reply #31 on: March 22, 2013, 10:17:04 pm »
+1

Since people are going deeper into the spoils/ruins thing I will as well.

The spoils is an extra card in the deck. This marginally slows down deck cycling for the marauder player. Maybe not important, but these things do add up in the long run. The marauder and spoils add variance to the deck income and usually you'd want to have the spoils buy an expensive card, costing 6 or more, rather than buy a silver equivalent card. Spoils are better when you have warehouse type cards to sift through the deck, taking quality over quantity, but if sifting cards are in the kingdom then looter attacks are going to be weaker. It's also worth remembering that sages and wandering minstrels from the dark ages set will both discard spoils.

Ruins are actually a low impediment to big money decks, as previously pointed out. However isolated ruins are actually a low impediment to most decks that have a treasure component. It's only when a deck has a lot of ruins that it suffers badly, when there are unplayed actions in most hands. The marauder cannot deliver ruins anywhere near as fast as cultists so it can take a while for the attack component to do serious damage, and that's without the points cushion that a cursing attack might provide.
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eHalcyon

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Re: Marauder
« Reply #32 on: March 22, 2013, 10:22:40 pm »
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How much are ruins mitigated by an abundance of actions, e.g. FV spam (assuming you have other terminals that you also want to play)?
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SirPeebles

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Re: Marauder
« Reply #33 on: March 22, 2013, 10:34:27 pm »
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It's also worth remembering that sages and wandering minstrels from the dark ages set will both discard spoils.

This is true, but it's also worth noting that skipping a Spoils isn't as bad as skipping a Gold.  Assuming you still play your Marauder each shuffle, missing your Spoils one reshuffle means having two next reshuffle.  It would still usually be better to have it now, but you know.

Edit:  This is assuming that you wouldn't mind having a bit more high quality treasure in your deck.  Of course, there are engine decks that want to stick with a small carefully tallied amount of treasure, and these decks would prefer not to have an accumulation of Spoils.  This can be especially true for an engine relying on Bandit Camp as its village.
« Last Edit: March 22, 2013, 10:39:14 pm by SirPeebles »
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