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[Kirian]

I mean... the more I play, the more I feel like it's really just luck of the draw.  Sure, if you have a ton of cards you can pick and choose what you get to great effect.  But if you never get a card that allows that... or if your opponent is continually taking cards from your hand... it just seems like there's nothing you can do.  Oh, you got industry symbols first?  Great, take everything from your opponent's hand and put it in your score pile.  Every game I play comes down to one or two ultra-powerful cards.

Is it just me?  Am I missing something?

Edit:  A bit more clarity on one thing.  There seems to be a point at which your opponent becomes unstoppable.  Now, this happens every so often in Dominion; your opponent's engine takes off and leaves you in the dust.  But in Innovation, it seems to happen just about every game.  Opponent gets a card that splays well, and suddenly they have more symbols than you in everything... at which point you're paralyzed, especially if you're drawing demand cards.  Or if they're drawing demand cards that deplete your symbols.

[qmech]

There is a lot of luck, and you are locked out of games more often than when playing Dominion.  But situations that look hopeless often aren't: if you're miles behind on score, then you can aim for some of the late game cards with alternative win conditions.  If you are economically locked down then that's sad though.

I win more often than I lose, so it's certainly possible to play better than random.  There's still a lot of luck between players of similar ability but, as in Dominion, dealing with the random draws is part of the skill of good play.

[theory]

I think the real hidden secret is that you're never really that far out of it, and conversely, you are never really that far ahead.  In Age 9/10, literally anything can happen.  The only time I feel that sense of inevitable doom is against a fast scoring engine and when I can't find a score-buster like Vaccination.  And occasionally against a brutal Industrialization or Fermenting/Reformation board.

[popsofctown]

As you memorize what all the possible cards in the game are, some of the luck fades.  You remember Gunpowder is a four and just sort of cover up your towers pre-emptively.  Your opponent has lots of crowns and is on age five, so you opt for a lightbulb strategy instead of a factory one.  Etc.

[JimKam]

Unless you play duplicate games (like Bridge), luck will be a factor of the game.

But I still believe that correct percentage play and safety play will be rewarding for the long run

[ksasaki]

There is some degree of luck (as you might expect in any card game), but there are so many game changing cards (especially if you add echoes) that I usually never feel completely overmatched.  I think they added a lot of cards in echoes with the power cards in the base in mind.

Here are a few off the top of my head:
scissors: annoyed with paper, just score it off their board, you can even share it and they'll be forced to score their own paper!
katana / kobuksun, another answer to fermenting / machinery in case you missed out on engineering / gunpowder
octant: I believe this is the one that steals leaves, so reformation / fermenting / machinery again
perfume: tired of your opponent advancing to age 8 while you are still in 3, well just steal their highest tech cards from under their nose!
ice skates: another nice "troll" card, the return your highest card is NOT optional!

[ConMan]

Luck is definitely a bigger factor in Innovation than it is in Dominion, but the focus is still on working out how to exert the little control you do have over things for the biggest effect. And don't forget that there are multiple paths to victory - if your opponent has a nice scoring engine using only Age 1/2 cards, try to tech up to get to a more interesting age (and remember he can't achieve a higher Age without a card of at least that Age himself). If all else seems lost, try to get to Ages 8-10 and try for either a Fission wipe of the board or a non-standard win. And if your opponent is spamming Agriculture, one of the best things you can do a lot of the time is to *not* share it - sure you get some score of your own, but you also give him another card in hand so he can spam the dogma faster, and probably get him to the next Age to achieve too.

EDIT:
On the runaway leader problem, I've seen either Carl or Chris (Innovation's Donald and Jay, approximately) say that it was designed this way to an extent - yes if one player gets a bit of a lead there's still a chance to claw back victory, but if that lead gets big enough that their win is practically guaranteed the game helps a little in speeding things up to that inevitable end.

[dan11295]

Yea I get annoyed sometimes when my opponent has a scoring engine and I have no way to attack their score pile..grr.

[popsofctown]

It would seem that theory's understanding of things is diametrically opposed to others'

[Kirian]

Luck is definitely a bigger factor in Innovation than it is in Dominion, but the focus is still on working out how to exert the little control you do have over things for the biggest effect. And don't forget that there are multiple paths to victory - if your opponent has a nice scoring engine using only Age 1/2 cards, try to tech up to get to a more interesting age (and remember he can't achieve a higher Age without a card of at least that Age himself). If all else seems lost, try to get to Ages 8-10 and try for either a Fission wipe of the board or a non-standard win. And if your opponent is spamming Agriculture, one of the best things you can do a lot of the time is to *not* share it - sure you get some score of your own, but you also give him another card in hand so he can spam the dogma faster, and probably get him to the next Age to achieve too.

EDIT:
On the runaway leader problem, I've seen either Carl or Chris (Innovation's Donald and Jay, approximately) say that it was designed this way to an extent - yes if one player gets a bit of a lead there's still a chance to claw back victory, but if that lead gets big enough that their win is practically guaranteed the game helps a little in speeding things up to that inevitable end.

Interesting!  I shall consider resigning earlier then in cases where that's what happens.

[WinterSpartan]

I agree with theory that it usually isn't over until it's over (barring huge leads that lead to fast victories anyways).

http://innovation.isotropic.org/gamelog/201302/22/game-20130222-081140-db92822a.html

Here is a game I just finished with Yaron where a lot of things "went wrong", luckwise - he had tools, gunpowder, and industrialization; he had leads in nearly all (sometimes all) the symbols. But I was able to use what I had and pull out a victory 6 achievements to 5. This game was also a good example of early cards being key late - both Pottery and Currency were crucial for me.

[dan11295]

I agree comebacks are certainly possibly, I give up too early sometimes I do admit. Had one Echos game where I had a lead in leaves but not anything else. Late in the game was able to draw and meld Ecology, dogma it next turn and draw Social Networking. Was certainly very lucky there.

Unsure about the best counter in situations when your opponents get 15 points in two turns Metalworking or the like.

[marco2012]

I would says...... it is not the end if opponent have all icons more than you
http://innovation.isotropic.org/gamelog/201302/23/game-20130223-080846-a61902d0.html

[BitTorrent]

Luck! Of course. Sometimes good luck give you instant win too! I just have a game with Alex in these 2 days where I got Almanac,
I forecast pencil(with a bonus of 4),
score it and forecast an age 5 card Stove(with a bonus of 6),
score it and forecast an age 7 card Jeans(with a bonus of ,
score it and forecast an age 9 card called wristwatch(with a bonus of 10), and what, I score it and the game ends! 

But no, I don't need good luck. I would say I don't want bad luck in the bottom line, but games wins by luck is not solid and turns the game into a gamble. Yea there are times that you are in age 9 or 10 which you know you are gambling(say if I cannot seal the game in this software try I would lose to an achievement run or something). But usually that is the last resort. If you can win by other approaches why going for lucky draw...

And talking about icons. I counted the games that I have won recently(I think I lose 1 out of 4-5 in the recent 50 games). In some 60% of the games that I won, I have less overall icons than my opponent. I lose in every category of icons quite a lot of these games too.

The key is, to win the game even you have less icons than your opponent. Sharing effects doesn't means you cannot benefit from it anymore, instead you may earn even more from it. Get yourself prepared to be demanded of something before it happens. 1st Tier players seldom get hit by gunpowder more than 3 times in a game, because they foresee its presence and they have a plan with it before entering age 4. Same thing as Machinery or Combustion or Mobility or anything similar. There are very few cases that someone seal off their opponent via super boards and icon superiority, far less than an achievement case.