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Author Topic: Better than nothing?  (Read 8720 times)

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DG

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Better than nothing?
« on: February 06, 2013, 08:34:07 am »
+22

This article is about the hidden costs of cheap cards that are often bought since they appear to be 'better than nothing'. This would typically be a 2 cost card that seems harmless but contributes little to the overall design of the deck. Cards that fit into this category could be  pawn, pearl diver, haven, hamlet, and vagrant, but the principles could also apply to  cellar, crossroads, apothecary, spy, wishing well, great hall, sage, scheme, oasis, or all villages. These cards look harmless enough since you can seemingly always play them to get a replacement card and action. Whatever benefit the card gives it seems better than nothing. Let's look at some situations where you need to think twice.

Terminal Draw


This is the simplest case that people can recognize. Action cards have no value at all when drawn into hand with no actions left to play them.

Top of Deck Attacks

Attacks by a sea hag, fortune teller, or rabble do more damage when an opponent draws the bad card into hand on the following turn. There is a line thought that if the bad card is unavoidable it might as well come now rather than later but generally this reasoning is false. In Dominion you want to play your good cards as soon as you can for incremental benefit.

Some cards naturally defend against top of deck attacks, such as golem, scavenger, chancellor, venture, and adventurer. Drawing from the top of the deck before playing those cards will forfeit that defense.

Reactions

Whilst you may be able to play your cheap action for +1 card during your turn, during any opponent's turn it occupies space in your hand and deck. This means that your reaction cards are slightly less likely to be in hand and revealed. This not only applies to your moats, fool's gold and tunnels but also provinces (vs tournaments), young witch banes, and curses (vs mountebanks).

Discards

Whenever have to choose cards to discard from a hand including your cheap card,  this decision comes before you can play it for +1 card. It is again occupying space in your deck. You must often choose between discarding a card you know or the cheap card that will draw an unknown from the top of the deck. The loss of information leads to poor decisions. This becomes worse when the decisions become more pivotal such as a militia attack on a hand of {trading post, pearl diver, curse, silver, silver}: Keep the bad cards for trashing or keep the treasures for spending? The lack of information can also leave you gambling on card combinations such as baron with estate.

Discards can often be forced by your opponent with militia type attacks but it can also come from your own cards such as warehouse, storeroom, and embassy. When a navigator or cartographer reveals a cheap card from the top of your deck, a later card in the deck has been obscured. The same is true with apothecary and scout however the cheap card may also have prevented you drawing a later card into hand. (On the other hand, small drawing cards can  provide great benefit when played after a cartographer, apothecary, or scout).

Unique card effects

2 cost cards are vulnerable to being swindled into estates and that might be a consideration. Golems and hunting parties will find your cheap action cards, for good or bad. Adding extra action cards to your deck is likely to change the results from tributes and ironmongers. 

How much does all this matter?

These subtleties can often be ignored whenever you are buying a card for a good purpose. Cheap cards can often provide great value. Even minor value can outweigh some of marginal risks discussed here. Thinking through some of these concepts can often also highlight benefits instead of risks. However it is possible for weaknesses in your deck to be exposed turn after turn and that's when you need to be aware of the risks. Then you need the foresight to buy nothing instead of a card that you don't really need.
« Last Edit: March 02, 2013, 05:19:40 pm by DG »
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DG

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Re: Better than nothing?
« Reply #1 on: February 06, 2013, 08:37:10 am »
0

In a response to the recent pawn article, I said that these issues kept cropping up for different cards and someone ought to put them together. So I have. I haven't listed the benefits of cheap cards since that would at least double the size of this article.
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timchen

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Re: Better than nothing?
« Reply #2 on: February 06, 2013, 12:53:43 pm »
+1

On the discard attack: I think you should mention that in the case the card that should have been your hand is a bad card,  you have to choose between a loss of a good card or cycling.  So it's not just information loss.

I also don't understand what you are trying to say that sometimes it's good for the bad cards to come earlier.
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HiveMindEmulator

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Re: Better than nothing?
« Reply #3 on: February 06, 2013, 01:33:45 pm »
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I also don't understand what you are trying to say that sometimes it's good for the bad cards to come earlier.

I think he's saying it's better for the good cards to come earlier. Example:
If you have a Pearl Diver and Estate in hand and a [good card] on deck. Opponent plays Bureaucrat, putting Estate on top of the [good card]. Then you draw it with Pearl Diver and get the [good card] next turn. If you had not bought the Pearl Diver, then [good card] would be in this hand (drawn instead of Pearl Diver) and Estate in next, which is usually better.
« Last Edit: February 06, 2013, 01:34:57 pm by HiveMindEmulator »
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Empathy

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Re: Better than nothing?
« Reply #4 on: February 06, 2013, 03:41:00 pm »
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I also don't understand what you are trying to say that sometimes it's good for the bad cards to come earlier.

I think he's saying it's better for the good cards to come earlier. Example:
If you have a Pearl Diver and Estate in hand and a [good card] on deck. Opponent plays Bureaucrat, putting Estate on top of the [good card]. Then you draw it with Pearl Diver and get the [good card] next turn. If you had not bought the Pearl Diver, then [good card] would be in this hand (drawn instead of Pearl Diver) and Estate in next, which is usually better.

If you want a strong example of a card that you really want to draw earlier, think of Hunting Party. Playing a Hunting party earlier rather than later greatly increases deck cycling and hence your chances of replaying those hunting parties.

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DG

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Re: Better than nothing?
« Reply #5 on: February 07, 2013, 08:55:57 am »
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I will clarify the statement for Timchen.

When making a discard decision with a drawing in hand it is possible to go wrong either way. You can discard the drawing card and miss out on a vital card from the top of the deck. You can also keep the drawing card and draw something worse than the cards discarded.
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GendoIkari

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Re: Better than nothing?
« Reply #6 on: March 02, 2013, 04:55:30 pm »
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Here's a thread with some discussion about this, actually: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=2308
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jomini

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Re: Better than nothing?
« Reply #7 on: March 05, 2013, 02:42:28 am »
+3

Other things to consider:
The non-reaction, reactive cards: Governor, Bishop, Vault, and Masquerade. Having a cheap cantrip in hand decreases the odds that you can effectively: turn 4's into duchies or 7's into provinces, trash copper, or intelligently discard useless cards (e.g. if cantrip/cantrip is set to draw green/green you just missed a chance to sift for a better card). Masq is weird, on the one hand, cantrips reduce the odds that you can send over crap like coppers or estates during your opponent's turn. On the other hand once you've slimmed the deck down they greatly increase the odds that you won't have to hand over VP or costly engine components.

Another way that stocking up on cheap cantrips can hurt is not just that you play them with golem, but that they change deck composition and draw odds. For instance take something like Tr/Xroads. You play Tr/Xroads; great now you draw 3 cards, two of which are cantrips, now you draw 3 more cards, all of which are green. On net without the cantrips you'd draw 5 live, non-green/ non-cantrip cards; with them you get 3. This can be an issue for repetitively playing any card (or with Golem sets of cards) that cares about density of cards in deck. Something like Apprentice/Border village/Kc, likewise prefers not have the cantrip - if you draw six and miss a Bv, it really sucks to have to apprentice for 2 when you need a megaturn to buy 3 provinces and 6 duchies. Double/triple playing anything that is conditional and draws is a bit worse with a spam cantrip - Stables and Spice Merchant have lower odds of hitting a second treasure with their draw, Minion suffers from less information, Nobles has a card less information and requires playing for actions or sometimes sacrificing a draw of a card per play.

This is not to say that spammable cantrips are not good here ... Tr/Pdiver is great for enabling big engines and Pdiver helps guard against drawing a dead Tr; heck Kc/Pdiver can be strong enough draw to build some engines. It just is wise to remember that overbuying cantrips can hurt once you have thinned way down and have conditional drawing.

In similar fashion you decrease your non-terminal draw potential with things like Apothecary, Scout, Cartographer, Vagrant, etc. but you also gain flexibility to do things like play Cartographer, top deck a village, play Pdiver, play village, draw the smithy you lined up -> Profit. If you are just using Cartographer to look for money or setup something like Treasure Maps, cantrips lack of information hurts more. If you are looking to setup up engine draws with top deck inspection, having some cheap cantrips often makes it easier to line up the "miracle" draw of village -> draws terminal draw.

Another fun one is Noble brigand - cheap spam increases the odds you will receive coppers whilst decreasing the odds you lose treasures. Similarly Thief and Pirate ship both are less likely to trash out your coppers ... but become more likely to whiff when drawing spam instead of coin. Even Swindler can suffer on this one - cheap cantrips reduce the odds that he can say turn Provinces into Peddlers or have a Kc/Swindler burn a province on the final turn (in like manner cheap spam also helps against Knights and Rogues).



But the biggest "cost" about spamming 2 coin cards you don't even mention - 3 pile threat. Yeah this can be a GREAT thing if you have the temporary advantage ... but depleting a pile brings out major risks - like curses running out and the other guy dropping 18 coin to down the Pawns & Estates for an auto-win or you being forced to buy fewer bazaars/caravans in order to keep the game afloat. The number one mistake I've beaten people silly with about the opportunity cost of 2 coin cards vs nothing is that they can completely change the timeline of the game ... and if you just buy 4 of them for me ... well that will often cost you a win if you aren't prepared for a quicker end game and I am.
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