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Author Topic: Did this guy win by the third turn?  (Read 7932 times)

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catsclaw

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Did this guy win by the third turn?
« on: September 16, 2011, 10:54:10 am »
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Here's a log from the game I just played: http://dominion.isotropic.org/gamelog/201109/16/game-20110916-073903-834aa871.html

I tried to after about 10 turns, when it was obvious I was losing, but my opponent whined about how the game wasn't over yet, and I stuck with it until the point where the game ended.  We then started arguing about the play.

My position was that the game was basically over when he got the Ghost Ship and hit me on the third turn.  His position was that I played like a "fucktard", that the Militia was a terrible buy, and the Goons was a terrible purchase.  I admit the Baron was a bad buy (I was hoping I could get to five coins with a Baron, Copper, and Estate after getting hit by the Ghost Ship), but I think I was basically in a losing race after the third turn.

Is the Militia really a terrible buy?  And is he right that it's still anybody's game after the third turn?
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Brando Commando

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Re: Did this guy win by the third turn?
« Reply #1 on: September 16, 2011, 11:43:53 am »
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I don't see how Militia is a terrible buy, nor Goons. Maybe in a couple of turns you could have Feasted (instead of Militia'd) for Ghost Ship yourself, then gone for money, but Goons and Cellar with some Minion and Nobles thrown in to try to get Peddlers seems sensible enough (that was your strategy, no?).

But I would stick it out, just to see what happens. 4/3 against a 5/2 split with Ghost Ship is pretty awful no matter how you slice it, I think.

(This is what I like about veto mode: You can ixnay stuff like Ghost Ship, which is kind of a must-buy on many boards, making you and your opponent actually, you know, think about your purchases.)

Anyway, so maybe you didn't play optimally and you should have finished. Still, I would probably rage quit any game where someone tried to force me to finish or called me names.

« Last Edit: September 16, 2011, 11:49:03 am by Brando Commando »
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DG

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Re: Did this guy win by the third turn?
« Reply #2 on: September 16, 2011, 12:35:36 pm »
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I don't think the militia is a particularly good really. It seems to limit your options and it will never be a great asset in a kingdom with minions, ghost ships, and goons.

I'm not particularly confident about this kingdom since you need a lot of components for most strategies and it may not be simple to assemble them with no trashing and attacks limiting any progress. Three pile depletion may also be an issue, or might not depending upon play. Taking a baron opener might be ok since the ghost ship might help you pair up barons and estates, even thought the baron could fail badly later. The feast also looks reasonable if you want to skip terminal actions that might clash with goons later.
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Fangz

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Re: Did this guy win by the third turn?
« Reply #3 on: September 16, 2011, 02:30:29 pm »
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Militia isn't generally terrible, but it would be a very weak counter card against Minion, which would seem to be the dominant strategy here. Goons was a bad buy though. You have no need for a second terminal attack, especially when the opponent has shown his intent to slow your deck cycling with ghost ship. Unless you can build up a necessary concentration of nobles, you won't see play of that goons sufficient to make any real difference. A minion, nobles, or gold buy would have done you better. I'd say your real problem was your overbuy of silvers. Just a simple cellar would have done you much better than 5 silvers and 2 harems, helping fuel a race to peddlers and aiding drawing of nobles and minions and goons.

EDIT:

The game wasn't nearly over by the 10th turn though, and it wasn't remotely over by 3. Ghost ship hurts, but stuff like minions counters it hard and you could have gotten your own ghost ship.
« Last Edit: September 16, 2011, 02:33:13 pm by Fangz »
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Kuildeous

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Re: Did this guy win by the third turn?
« Reply #4 on: September 16, 2011, 02:47:56 pm »
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I get a 404 error when I try to access your log, so I'll have to go off of what you and others said.

First off, anyone who calls you a fucktard about buying "terrible" cards is himself likely a fucktard. Let's get that out of the way.

Militia and Goons are not terrible cards. They are actually quite good cards. They may not be perfect in every situation, but they're hardly terrible in any setup. If you had spent your time purchasing eight Pearl Divers, I still wouldn't call you a fucktard, but I would definitely say it's a bad strategy.

If you had a 4/3 vs a Ghost Ship, you already had your work cut out for it. The game isn't over by Turn 3, but you had an uphill battle. It happens, and I've seen some pretty amazing turnaround after an insane opening.

I like the notion of the Baron against a Ghost Ship. You can keep putting back an Estate or a Baron until you are able to get them both together. Although, as I think on it, that means you get four coins for two cards. You could have done that by buying two Silvers instead—and you don't have to wait for both cards to come up. So, maybe Baron wasn't that great of a choice. It's fun, though; I will say that.

It looks like you had Minion as an option. I would have gone for some of that as a soft counter to the Ghost Ship. When you are attacked, you keep a Minion and your two worst cards. Play the Minion to discard your hand and draw the two good cards you put on top. As a bonus, you screw him over. Feast for Minion would probably have been a better choice.

In seeing the limited amount of cards, I would still have gone for Goons. I wouldn't have gotten more than two or three, but with no trashing, you will have a fairly large deck to cycle through. I would have gone for Minions and Cellars as +1 Action so I could keep playing cards and try to get a Goon out. I would not have used the Goon's +Buy unless I had enough money to get two good cards. Copperbagging would not have happened until toward the end of the game, since I saw no mention of trashing.

Although, if your opponent is ignoring Peddlers, you can make a killing off that. Play three Minions/Cellars plus a Goons to buy whatever you need plus a Peddler and still get +2 VP. Not too shabby. And the Peddlers just allow that engine to keep going until you can empty the Peddlers.

I mentioned playing Cellars, but I don't think that would have been a great buy either. If your hand size is constantly 3, a Cellar is almost a dead card. Bumping it up with Minion can help, but it's still suboptimal.

Just some of my observations based on limited data. Baron's not a great opener, but I don't think it's horrible. I would have ignored Militia personally just because Goons is much better, and it doesn't look like you had any +2 Actions. I would have been careful not to get too many terminal actions. If you plugged your deck more than 20% of Militia/Goons, then I would argue that was terrible, as you have guaranteed at least 1 hand of conflicting terminals. I don't know for sure.

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catsclaw

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Re: Did this guy win by the third turn?
« Reply #5 on: September 16, 2011, 03:42:43 pm »
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I opened Militia, not Baron.  I knew the Minion was out, but I didn't want to let my opponent have unanswered attacks.

One of his major arguments was that three terminals (Baron, Militia, and Goons) was far, far too many terminals.  I was buying Nobles when I had six coins, and Minions when I had 5.  I was buying Nobles over Gold because my opponent was buying out the Nobles, and I figured once he had a commanding lead in them, I was dead.

I'm getting a lot of conflicting advice on this thread.  I still think I had a bad chance to win after my opponent's 5/2 opening, and that dropped to near zero when on my reshuffle I drew 2 coppers and my opponent didn't draw his Ghost Ship.
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Mean Mr Mustard

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Re: Did this guy win by the third turn?
« Reply #6 on: September 16, 2011, 03:55:08 pm »
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Minions isn't an okay counter to GS, it is a great one.  I can only tell you what I would have done with this board:  There isn't a village, so I would have gone straight Minions.  The Nobles are prohibitively expensive to use as a village, so using it to include Goons in a chain is dubious.  That would be two Minion buys wasted.

So~ open Feast/Silver, never buy another silver and ride the Minion train, buying Peddlers singly when the search for $5 (or $8) didn't pan out.  That would have been my plan.

Was this game over at turn 3?  Not in the slightest.
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catsclaw

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Re: Did this guy win by the third turn?
« Reply #7 on: September 16, 2011, 04:29:50 pm »
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Was this game over at turn 3?  Not in the slightest.

What chance do you put on winning after that third turn?
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Mean Mr Mustard

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Re: Did this guy win by the third turn?
« Reply #8 on: September 16, 2011, 04:34:24 pm »
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Pretty low if I planned to buy 4 Peddlers, 3 Minions, 3 Nobles, 2 Cellars, 2 Goons, 2 Harems, 1 Baron, 1 Militia.
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Jake <a href=http://dominion.isotropic.org/gamelog/201203/17/game-20120317-030206-6456f97c.html>opening: opening: Silver / Jack of All Trades</a>
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catsclaw

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Re: Did this guy win by the third turn?
« Reply #9 on: September 16, 2011, 04:42:10 pm »
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Pretty low if I planned to buy 4 Peddlers, 3 Minions, 3 Nobles, 2 Cellars, 2 Goons, 2 Harems, 1 Baron, 1 Militia.

That's funny, because I asked a serious question about your strategy, and you responded like a dick.
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Fangz

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Re: Did this guy win by the third turn?
« Reply #10 on: September 16, 2011, 04:43:36 pm »
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Was this game over at turn 3?  Not in the slightest.

What chance do you put on winning after that third turn?

Given the minion stack was undepleted by the end of the game, his opponent didn't know what he was doing either. Following MMM's minions strategy, he had probably a 90% chance of victory.

Edit: if you were so whiny and abrasive in that game's chat as well, no wonder your opponent started calling you names.
« Last Edit: September 16, 2011, 04:47:10 pm by Fangz »
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catsclaw

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Re: Did this guy win by the third turn?
« Reply #11 on: September 16, 2011, 04:58:14 pm »
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if you were so whiny and abrasive in that game's chat as well, no wonder your opponent started calling you names.

Is this the usual level of discourse on this forum?  I was actually trying to get some answers, but I guess this isn't the forum for it.
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rrenaud

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Re: Did this guy win by the third turn?
« Reply #12 on: September 16, 2011, 05:20:50 pm »
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cats, from my perspective, you were the first to start the ad hominem.

MMM called you out on not having a clear strategy, and then you said it was dickish.
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catsclaw

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Re: Did this guy win by the third turn?
« Reply #13 on: September 16, 2011, 06:55:43 pm »
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MMM called you out on not having a clear strategy, and then you said it was dickish.

He didn't say I didn't have a clear strategy.  He avoided my question (which was asking about his strategy, not mine) and went and called out every single card I bought in the game.  That's both rude and insulting, in my book.

If someone posts on here and asks "I lost game X by buying cards A, B, and C.  What did I do wrong?" and someone responds "Don't buy A, B, and C" they're not being helpful or a constructive member of the community.  They're being an ass.
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rrenaud

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Re: Did this guy win by the third turn?
« Reply #14 on: September 16, 2011, 07:41:32 pm »
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I think the advice of "go minions" on the board is reasonable.

I think we mostly operate on good faith and give direct suggestions without too much regard for ego or emotion. You shouldn't be offended if someone thought you misplayed a set.
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ackack

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Re: Did this guy win by the third turn?
« Reply #15 on: September 16, 2011, 09:22:28 pm »
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cats, from my perspective, you were the first to start the ad hominem.

MMM called you out on not having a clear strategy, and then you said it was dickish.

Which it was - it was obviously a pretty snarky response, and the same information could certainly have been conveyed in a more polite manner. That's fine, as the repeated questioning about "please get specific about exactly how boned I was?" is not that interesting in this context. But I think it's a silly perspective to say that catsclaw started it.
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Mean Mr Mustard

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Re: Did this guy win by the third turn?
« Reply #16 on: September 16, 2011, 09:33:47 pm »
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I apologize. sincerely.  I was on my out of the door and I didn't have time to expound.  Seriously, my bad, catsclaw.

The problem was at turn three you had a Militia in the deck, which was really more of a liability than a asset.  If I picked up your deck on turn four and played out your hand, I probably would have let the Militia get cycled unless it came up at a good stopping point in the Minion chain.  That being said, even with the Militia if you had focused on Minion you still had a pretty decent chance.
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Jake <a href=http://dominion.isotropic.org/gamelog/201203/17/game-20120317-030206-6456f97c.html>opening: opening: Silver / Jack of All Trades</a>
<b>IsoDom1 Winner:  shark_bait
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Isodom3 Winner: Fabian</b>
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catsclaw

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Re: Did this guy win by the third turn?
« Reply #17 on: September 18, 2011, 12:46:15 pm »
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Thank you for the apology.

I still haven't gotten an answer of what's the likelihood you can win after your opponent opens 5/2 on a board like this, which is a serious question.  People are saying "It wasn't remotely over" but I have no idea what they mean by that.  Is there a 40% chance of winning?  20%?  5%?  My sense is that it's a significant handicap, and the only real chance you have is if your opponent plays badly and you get lucky.  I hate playing games where my only chance of winning is if my opponent plays badly and I get lucky.  Other people seem to enjoy that sort of thing.
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WanderingWinder

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Re: Did this guy win by the third turn?
« Reply #18 on: September 18, 2011, 01:09:10 pm »
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Thank you for the apology.

I still haven't gotten an answer of what's the likelihood you can win after your opponent opens 5/2 on a board like this, which is a serious question.  People are saying "It wasn't remotely over" but I have no idea what they mean by that.  Is there a 40% chance of winning?  20%?  5%?  My sense is that it's a significant handicap, and the only real chance you have is if your opponent plays badly and you get lucky.  I hate playing games where my only chance of winning is if my opponent plays badly and I get lucky.  Other people seem to enjoy that sort of thing.

It's not an 'and', it's an 'or'. And if you hate such things so much, you must like not playing games with other people. I mean, the only way you should win any balanced game is if you get lucky or your opponent plays sub-optimally. So, I'm sure that's not what you meant exactly, but I can't figure out what you did actually mean...

Edit: as for an exact percentage, that's too hard to quantify precisely, but I would guess that it's closer to 20% than 5 or 40 with "perfect play"

rod-

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Re: Did this guy win by the third turn?
« Reply #19 on: September 18, 2011, 01:37:37 pm »
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Councilroom puts ghost ship / cellar as a level +1 opener.  i have no idea what your opponent was, but given that militia/silver is also +1, i'd say that that game is closer to a 'normal' 60/40 than even WW suggests.  The buying power of ghostship/cellar is quite lacking, even if it is doing an effective job of preventing your buying power from accellerating at a normal pace.

Getting ghost shipped 'only' on turns 3,5,8 is not even the worst case scenario vs ghost/cellar opening.  you had 2 6$ turns despite his attacks, while he had had only one (and that one came as a lucky stroke more than anything)

In short, there was a lot more going on in this game than the first 3 turns.
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DG

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Re: Did this guy win by the third turn?
« Reply #20 on: September 18, 2011, 02:17:25 pm »
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I'd agree that ghost ship/cellar is a slow opening. That player has to be very luck to buy a gold on the next couple of turns, so the opponent doesn't have to do that much to make up ground. The militia might be worse in the long term but at the start it adds +2 coins and would have made the cellar look like a foolish buy if it had hit right.

In other words, most certainly not lost on turn 3 even with the miltia.
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WanderingWinder

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Re: Did this guy win by the third turn?
« Reply #21 on: September 19, 2011, 01:30:46 pm »
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For some reason I was thinking this was the similar thread with a mountebank opening. Here, I'd guess 35%ish, totally unscientifically

rrenaud

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Re: Did this guy win by the third turn?
« Reply #22 on: September 24, 2011, 03:13:40 am »
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I added a model that tries to predcict probability of winning given the game state.

Maybe the model sucks.  But it only barely gives your opponent an edge at turn 3.
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pulpix

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Re: Did this guy win by the third turn?
« Reply #23 on: September 27, 2011, 08:27:49 am »
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Oks i'm that player that is suppose to be very bad and yelling at him and first of all i didnt. He just told me that he lose the game when i openend 5/2 to him and i told him that it was and advantage but wasnt gg on the first turn. I still remember that game and can assure that he took too many terminals and more important useless one like militia. On that draft its really bad cuz i prefere to skip militia on the first turns and then get goons. You get the same atack efect but its 10X better so.... that's my point....

Sorry about my english and didnt intented to insult u just tired of ppl telling u that they lose the game on the first split hands.
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