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Author Topic: 2012 DominionStrategy.com Championships: Final Four  (Read 35501 times)

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Donald X.

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Re: 2012 DominionStrategy.com Championships: Final Four
« Reply #100 on: January 26, 2013, 07:49:23 pm »
+2

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heatthespurs

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Re: 2012 DominionStrategy.com Championships: Final Four
« Reply #101 on: January 27, 2013, 12:51:22 am »
0

So when will the much anticipated FINAL be held?  ::)
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theory

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Re: 2012 DominionStrategy.com Championships: Final Four
« Reply #102 on: January 27, 2013, 10:33:45 am »
+1

As soon as we get together a list of sets and can find a good time for three of us.
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Re: 2012 DominionStrategy.com Championships: Final Four
« Reply #103 on: January 27, 2013, 11:02:11 am »
+10

Thanks for playing this match lespeutere. It was a very evenly matched series that ended with a real nail-biter. "Better lucky then smart" :)
Also thanks for writing up the great report and making the videos. I had to leave immediately after the match so didn't have time for it yesterday, but here are my thoughts on our semifinal.

Apprentice, Caravan, Cellar, Colony, Feast, Forge, Great Hall, Monument, Pawn♦, Platinum, Swindler, Woodcutter, and Young Witch
pregame: With Young Witch as an immediate thread, the first question was whether to invest heavily in the very reasonable bane card (Young Witch/Pawn) or try to build up first (Young Witch/Silver). Colonies implies the game goes long, so there will be time to get a big Forge turn no matter what. Even bad decks (with quite some curses) can get a big Forge turn due to Apprentice eating something big like Gold. Big forge turns means winning the curse split isn't all that relevant. This made it a very clear decision for me to open Silver. I really want that Apprentice and on this opening I actually have a very reasonable chance of hitting $5 (Young Witch/Pawn has a very lousy chance of doing that).

early game: He duplicates my Silver opening, but I immediately get a small edge because I draw my Young Witch a turn sooner. Having the curse in before he reshuffles is nice, although I think he overestimates the importance. On turn 4 we both get a $4 decision, and I go Caravan where he takes another Silver. I don't think it's even close here. At this point we already have the $5 card, and hitting $5 again or $6 isn't that important. I want to play both my Apprentice and my Young Witch more often, increase the chance of Apprentice-Estate collision, and a Caravan will also help with the upcoming Forge turn.

midgame: Then I get some nice draws and quickly build up a lead. Turn 9 I play Young Witch over a small Forge, which was a pretty close decision. The reshuffle for turn 9/10 was my first bad one, but I'm already so much ahead that on turn 10 I can decide to play it very safe. In stead of trying for a big Forge turn right away, I decide to shuffle both apprentices back in and rely on the next reshuffle for the Forge.


Black Market, Caravan, Counting House, Fishing Village, Horse Traders, Island, Mandarin, Scout, Talisman, and Trader
My initial plan was to just deny this game ever happened. But hey, he's got the logs and the video, so that's going to be hard. More then any other card, Black Market can lure me into engines I really shouldn't try. It's just too much fun to play :). But on this board it's hopeless. I also really underestimated Mandarin-Trader here. I think my theories around Black Market are pretty sound, I just don't know why I keep breaking my own rules. Just to make me feel a tiny little bit better about this game, here they are:

Building an engine requires four components: +actions, draw, trashing, payload (either huge buying, huge scoring, or nasty attacks). To build an engine around Black Market, the best case scenario is where the first three are in the regular kingdom and you use BM for the payload. If you have superior trashing in the kingdom, drawing from the BM is also an option. If you have superior draw in the kingdom, trashing from the BM is also an option. I often see people looking at what's in the Black Market to decide whether they want to play a deck around it. Sure you should have a peek, but what's in the regular kingdom is of much more importance. There's almost always 'a little bit of everything' in there.

Here we have bad draw, bad trashing and no payload in the kingdom. Why oh why do I even try?


Bridge, Great Hall, Highway, Hunting Party, Ironworks, Menagerie, Moneylender, Mountebank, Swindler, and Tournament
pregame: A lot of possibilities, most of them killed by Mountebank. In fact so complicated that I just gave up on a real analysis. I ended with "I really want to hit $5, so let's pick two cards that don't clash and both bring me $2" and "In a tournament game I always like trashing". Menagerie looked cute but probably wasn't going to work, and neither was Ironworks/Highway. Mountebank & lots of Hunting Parties was what I wanted.

Early game: oh no! how can I not hit $5 even once on a Silver/Moneylender opening. The $4 cards aren't bad or anything, but I felt really lost after missing the Mountebank.
Midgame: with some incredible luck I get two early $8's and then all of a sudden it's my game in stead of his. Whowa!


City, Conspirator, Fishing Village, Great Hall, Ironworks, Royal Seal, Steward, Venture, Wharf, and Workshop
pregame: on a regular Wharf/Fishing Village game you don't need much more then those two. But here we have Iron Works for free Conspirators, enabled by Stewards trashing. That's easily strong enough to open Steward. I even thought about opening double Steward here for a while, but Steward with Wharf in play is just more powerful.

early game: I get a very good first reshuffle, immediately making up for my p2 disadvantage and more. He gets a second Steward which is not his dream scenario but I do agree with it.
midgame: I can trash more, gain more conspirators and manage to build a pretty sound lead.
late game: then I make a mistake I rarely ever do. In an already powerful deck, I keep investing in power in stead of reliability. I feel like not doing stuff like that is one of my strongest points in this game, but here I fail.

I don't have that many Fishing Villages (3) but trashed a lot so I feel good about it. The problem is that I split my villages 3/0 over the even/odd turns. On my turn 9 I have the opportunity to fix this to 3/1 by gaining a Fishing Village mid-turn but I neglect to do so. I get punished hard by not drawing any village in a 9-card hand.

He basically makes the same mistake by splitting his wharves 4/0, but he does get away with it. In his shoes I would have picked up a second Ironworks for free on turn 10 to get more end-game control, but that didn't prove necessary either.


Alchemist, Apothecary, Fool's Gold♦, Horn of Plenty, Potion, Royal Seal, Saboteur, Smithy, Thief, Tournament, Workshop, and Young Witch
pregame: Apothecary & Tournament are really great friends, but Fool's Gold as a bane is impossible to ignore. This felt like a game that was largely going to be decided on luck.

early game: He skips Young Witch for another Fool's Gold. I didn't expect it but it feels like a pretty good move, especially after he manages to block all Young Witches.
midgame: Fortunately even when the cursing fails Young Witch still isn't a dead card. I manage to sneak in a Horn of Plenty, and buy slightly more real Golds then he does. He gets the first Province, but powered by sheer luck I get the prizes and the game.



Alchemist, Cartographer, Familiar, Farming Village, Fool's Gold, Goons, Harem, Ironworks, Nobles, Potion, and Torturer
pregame: This one clearly was going to be about Familiars and not Torturers. Familiars aren't pretty for P2, but hey maybe he misses or gets them later on his shuffle or ... well at this point still a lot could happen.

early game: We mirror through the first 4 turns, but then I get some bad draws. Both my familiar and my potion miss this shuffle, and I make a somewhat desperate move for a Torturer. A Cartographer would have been a more sensible choice, unfortunately probably also losing.
midgame: I keep putting my familiar on the bottom, and lose the curse split 8-2 which is off course game decisive. My Torturers don't do anything but that was predictable.



Adventurer, Conspirator, Crossroads, Highway, Inn, Menagerie, Potion, Stash, Torturer, Treasury, and Vineyard
This one we play almost an exact mirror. I can't see much else to do either. The only decision I had to think about for real here was my first menagerie - should it be a crossroads? I really don't know. I need to be able to play many Torturers, but a Menagerie is also very good when you get hit by some torturers yourself.

Miraculously this game isn't over after the curses are split, because we both get 5. Torturer games tend to split them 8-2 or 2-8 much more often. So we continue, and continue, and continue... until I get some better draws and manage to get a serious lead. Then it still takes like forever, but eventually I get to $8 again and get a ticket to the finals :)


Thanks again lespeutere, it was a fun series to play and I feel almost sorry that you played so well and lost. Almost ;)
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WanderingWinder

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Re: 2012 DominionStrategy.com Championships: Final Four
« Reply #104 on: January 27, 2013, 12:52:28 pm »
+4

I have very few comments on the first semifinal - I am a little confused as to how a IW/G game goes 25 turns but weird stuff can happen off of endgame considerations sometimes; it probably made sense as the game was being played.

I have lots of thoughts, though, on lespeuture vs Stef. And by the way, watch lespeuture's videos,  they're really interesting.

Game 1:The eventual goal has to be big apprentice and forge play, but there's some question of how to get there. I definitely am not getting a silver on turn 1 or 2 here - I'm not sure what's best, but it's some question of pawn, young witch and swindler. I find swindler really tempting, because it can nail every important card for quite a while - pawns go into estates, swindlers go into silver (which is the weakest thing), young witch turns into... I'm not sure, probably monument early, eventually feast, and most important, you can hit their apprentices into duchies. Oh and of course cursing attack on copper. You can get killed if you hit estates, but I think this is a risk you need to take. I don't like young witch with silver, because it's all about getting to forge, and I think the ability to block the curses is going to be more important because they will clog you for a good while and slow you way down in getting your apprentice/forge play going. You can clean it up eventually, but it will take a long time. I think this is a bigger deal than the decrease in buying power off of a pawn. In any case though, caravan is definitely the choice over silver, because getting your drawing up is going to be more important for the eventual apprentice/forge thing. As the game rolled, I think it was a little about Stef outplaying him, a little about shuffle luck, and a decent bit about first turn (you get the curses in shuffles earlier and then it snowballs).

Game 2: I actually think I would go for black market and the engine here. But the thing is, trader is not a card you want for a deck like that. I would have gotten... possibly, probably talisman for caravans off the opening. Stef's play is unconvincing; it seemed not well coordinated as I watched the video. But he also gets really dreadful luck with all of the important black market cards getting stuck at the end of the deck. Like ALL of them. And he isn't THAT far off of winning. But Mandarin into BM is better than people give credit for, too; the thing is, it's not super fast, but it has good longevity - it can get to 5,6,7 provinces without that much problem, once you have the proper build-up for the 4 that you'd normally look at. So maybe on average the BM works out anyway, but I still sort of like the Black Market here, but maybe that's my pendulum have over-swung to engine nowadays.

Game 3: I don't like moneylender here - the copper trashing is not going to be super good for this kind of deck, you be in better shape with almost anything else (well, maybe not bridge, which is definitely what I would have swindled the thing into rather than replacing with another moneylender. I would love to do an ironworks thing here - I am not sure, it's probably not quite good enough. IW/Highway obviously can't go as large as it often can here, but you can get tournaments, and with one highway, grab hunting parties. Probably this is too elaborate, and the simple hunting party stack with mountebanks, maybe with a swindler (I think probably), and and maybe with tournaments (actually, I think not). Well, Stef gets a tiny amount of bad luck early, but getting moneylender hit is really not an issue, and he gets big luck for the provinces after that, and the tournaments roll after this.

Game 4: Initially I was thinking no stewards, but with a lot of extra thought, I would think one. And you want an ironworks. Just one. You really need to get your engine up, and I think it's more preferable to do this off getting big wharf chains than trashing the deck super thin. Well, Stef plays it really well, strategically (I would have liked one more wharf and FV over a couple conspirators, but this isn't 100% clear from an objective standpoint), and lespeuture goes a little off with the second steward, but not so bad himself. But they both get this uneven wharf thing, which opens them up for problems, which they both hit, but it's really hard to avoid this, because you do want to draw everything on the turn - this is part of why I want more wharves, but sometimes you take that risk, because if you can get it right, it is faster. I might have greened earlier than this, and I think this is decently close, with Stef getting early luck but bad luck late, which is somehow the opposite of the previous game. Taken together, seems equitable to me.

Game 5: The interesting thing is, young witch with fool's gold is going to lose to the straight fool's gold, but I would expect that to have lost to the apothecary/tournament engine, with horns of plenty to top of a mega-turn - but that in turn is not going to hold up to cursing very well, losing to YW/FG. So I don't know, probably I go FG/FG as an open, and if they go for the engine pick up a YW later. Well, I guess young witch isn't too bad for FG anyway, with the filtering, so it's a close call.

Game 6: So there's going to be two phases to the game, the cursing and the goons. Well, if you lose the cursing phase too badly, and then it's just over. For the goons, you want a lot of draw, but you can dodge torturers long enough that familiars should probably win the curse split. And you can use some alchemists for draw. You know, cartographer is familiar's best friend, so you want some of them before the war goes down, but it's less important for goons. I think lespeuture gets a couple too many (say over alchemists), but with the big curse win, it's not too consequential.

blackb

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Re: 2012 DominionStrategy.com Championships: Final Four
« Reply #105 on: January 27, 2013, 04:13:27 pm »
0

You forgot game 7
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WanderingWinder

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Re: 2012 DominionStrategy.com Championships: Final Four
« Reply #106 on: January 27, 2013, 04:44:47 pm »
0

You forgot game 7
No, I just don't have coherent thoughts on it.

DG

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Re: 2012 DominionStrategy.com Championships: Final Four
« Reply #107 on: January 27, 2013, 08:24:23 pm »
+1

I put together a sim for game 3 and it suggested that tournament/swindler was the stronger opening. However, the menageries seem to hardly help a swindler deck but be of great benefit to the moneylender deck, making it quite even. First player advantage seemed most significant.
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Davio

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Re: 2012 DominionStrategy.com Championships: Final Four
« Reply #108 on: January 28, 2013, 08:23:22 am »
0

Congrats on advancing Stef.

By the time I watched the vids I was rooting for lespeutere as well, hope you don't mind. :)

I found it a shame that many of the boards were very swingy/luck dependent, but what can you do? I mean, the player decisions almost felt like micro optimizations compared to how decisive a good or bad shuffle was sometimes. You getting those 2 early Provinces in the Tournament/MB/HP game was unreal and so was you losing the curse split 2-8 with the Familiars.

Overall fun to watch though.
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SirPeebles

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Re: 2012 DominionStrategy.com Championships: Final Four
« Reply #109 on: January 28, 2013, 08:54:59 am »
+2

It's really hard not to root for the person making the video, particularly when there is commentary.  Hearing about the thoughts, seeing the emotional reactions, ...
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Polk5440

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Re: 2012 DominionStrategy.com Championships: Final Four
« Reply #110 on: January 28, 2013, 10:12:25 am »
0

I found it a shame that many of the boards were very swingy/luck dependent, but what can you do?

Maybe if there were enough good kingdoms submitted, theory could select for the third place match, as well?
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WanderingWinder

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Re: 2012 DominionStrategy.com Championships: Final Four
« Reply #111 on: January 28, 2013, 01:36:16 pm »
0

I don't know that I found this set of matches particularly luck dependent.

kn1tt3r

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Re: 2012 DominionStrategy.com Championships: Final Four
« Reply #112 on: January 28, 2013, 04:06:23 pm »
0

I don't know that I found this set of matches particularly luck dependent.

Yeah, I don't think they were extraordinary luck dependent. But they were extremly favoring first player. Tournament twice, cursers, Fool's Gold... So in the end it's probably only logical that the first player advantage won between two players that good (though Stef is probably still a slight tough above everyone else).
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Re: 2012 DominionStrategy.com Championships: Final Four
« Reply #113 on: January 28, 2013, 04:18:02 pm »
0

I don't know that I found this set of matches particularly luck dependent.

Yeah, I don't think they were extraordinary luck dependent. But they were extremly favoring first player. Tournament twice, cursers, Fool's Gold... So in the end it's probably only logical that the first player advantage won between two players that good (though Stef is probably still a slight tough above everyone else).
Stef is 6.5 levels above anyone else at the moment. I think it's more than just first player advantage. After him it gets closer again, but he is just miles above anyone else at the moment. (Interestingly, olneyce, a level 42, seems to have the 2nd highest skill.)
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kn1tt3r

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Re: 2012 DominionStrategy.com Championships: Final Four
« Reply #114 on: January 28, 2013, 04:38:00 pm »
0

I don't know that I found this set of matches particularly luck dependent.

Yeah, I don't think they were extraordinary luck dependent. But they were extremly favoring first player. Tournament twice, cursers, Fool's Gold... So in the end it's probably only logical that the first player advantage won between two players that good (though Stef is probably still a slight tough above everyone else).
Stef is 6.5 levels above anyone else at the moment. I think it's more than just first player advantage. After him it gets closer again, but he is just miles above anyone else at the moment. (Interestingly, olneyce, a level 42, seems to have the 2nd highest skill.)

Sure, I see that. But nevertheless those matches had more 1st player advantage than average.
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olneyce

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Re: 2012 DominionStrategy.com Championships: Final Four
« Reply #115 on: January 28, 2013, 04:42:54 pm »
0

I don't know that I found this set of matches particularly luck dependent.

Yeah, I don't think they were extraordinary luck dependent. But they were extremly favoring first player. Tournament twice, cursers, Fool's Gold... So in the end it's probably only logical that the first player advantage won between two players that good (though Stef is probably still a slight tough above everyone else).
Stef is 6.5 levels above anyone else at the moment. I think it's more than just first player advantage. After him it gets closer again, but he is just miles above anyone else at the moment. (Interestingly, olneyce, a level 42, seems to have the 2nd highest skill.)
That's what playing only a couple games a week will do for you!

It looks like I've gone 27-4 in the month and a half since being eliminated from the tournament.  Bumping my skill up 3 points, while knocking the certainty down about the same amount.
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theory

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Re: 2012 DominionStrategy.com Championships: Final Four
« Reply #116 on: January 29, 2013, 01:33:03 pm »
+2

So, Mic Qsenoch is losing this poll.

You know who lost last year's poll?  olneyce

Just sayin' :)
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Insomniac

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Re: 2012 DominionStrategy.com Championships: Final Four
« Reply #117 on: January 29, 2013, 02:11:14 pm »
0

So, Mic Qsenoch is losing this poll.

You know who lost last year's poll?  olneyce

Just sayin' :)

Are you saying the DS poll is like the Presidents Trophy in the NHL?
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lespeutere

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Re: 2012 DominionStrategy.com Championships: Final Four
« Reply #118 on: January 29, 2013, 02:25:50 pm »
0

So, Mic Qsenoch is losing this poll.

You know who lost last year's poll?  olneyce

Just sayin' :)

I voted for Mic.
Just sayin' :)
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Dsell

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Re: 2012 DominionStrategy.com Championships: Final Four
« Reply #119 on: January 29, 2013, 02:57:06 pm »
0

Is there going to be a bronze medal match?
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Forge!!!

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Re: 2012 DominionStrategy.com Championships: Final Four
« Reply #120 on: January 29, 2013, 05:18:15 pm »
0

So, Mic Qsenoch is losing this poll.

You know who lost last year's poll?  olneyce

Just sayin' :)

I voted for Mic.
Just sayin' :)

We are the 6.7%!
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def

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Re: 2012 DominionStrategy.com Championships: Final Four
« Reply #121 on: January 29, 2013, 05:45:26 pm »
0

So, Mic Qsenoch is losing this poll.

You know who lost last year's poll?  olneyce

Just sayin' :)

I voted for Mic.
Just sayin' :)

We are the 6.7%!

Well, you have to consider the fact that some votes aren't counting anymore. Without those, you are the...8,75%. Congrats.
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Tables

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Re: 2012 DominionStrategy.com Championships: Final Four
« Reply #122 on: February 01, 2013, 08:16:43 am »
+1

Any word on when the final is yet?

I think I'm gonna be rooting for Stef. That way I'm part of the long chain of losers (I'd have lost to the person who lost to the person who lost to the person who lost to the person who lost to Stef (and I think I put the right number of clauses in there), which is a lot more amusing than going through winner wise.
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ycz6

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Re: 2012 DominionStrategy.com Championships: Final Four
« Reply #123 on: February 01, 2013, 01:12:07 pm »
0

Any word on when the final is yet?

I think I'm gonna be rooting for Stef. That way I'm part of the long chain of losers (I'd have lost to the person who lost to the person who lost to the person who lost to the person who lost to Stef (and I think I put the right number of clauses in there), which is a lot more amusing than going through winner wise.
The guys over at the GameFAQs contest board call this the Ultimate Loser.
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theory

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Re: 2012 DominionStrategy.com Championships: Final Four
« Reply #124 on: February 01, 2013, 01:21:52 pm »
0

Any word on when the final is yet?

I think I'm gonna be rooting for Stef. That way I'm part of the long chain of losers (I'd have lost to the person who lost to the person who lost to the person who lost to the person who lost to Stef (and I think I put the right number of clauses in there), which is a lot more amusing than going through winner wise.
The guys over at the GameFAQs contest board call this the Ultimate Loser.

Oh man, are you a B8er?  I used to be super into that crowd and LUE.
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