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Author Topic: 2012 Elite Eight Bracket  (Read 17867 times)

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ednever

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Re: 2012 Elite Eight Bracket
« Reply #25 on: January 14, 2013, 12:21:08 pm »
+1

I tried to check on council room, but it times out.

It would be great to see what the win/loss records are against one another for the remaining 8.

DonDon won't have a lot of numbers given his past resistance to playing online (I know my record against DonDon: 1/1/1 - that right DD? The win was Potion/Herbalist. The loss was Torture/Chapel/Border Village. The tie was a 4P game where niether of us won I think...)

But everyone else should have a pretty substantial record against one another.

I know I'd be curious.

Ed
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Re: 2012 Elite Eight Bracket
« Reply #26 on: January 14, 2013, 12:21:29 pm »
0

I'm going to predict MicQ on this one, but I know by experience (and watching videos) all eight players are good so this is really anyone's tournament.

I am elated that it took OWB to beat the guy that beat me. 
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soulnet

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Re: 2012 Elite Eight Bracket
« Reply #27 on: January 14, 2013, 12:37:17 pm »
0

I've never seen such a thing. I've seen America as continent, and also North/Central/South America as 3 continents, but never only two. In any case, an American is an individual born or a citizen of any country of North/Central/South America.

I was actually taught America is one continent, but heard the opposite from other people. Also heard North American only consists of Canada and the US, but mostly from ridiculous attempts from particular US people trying to separate themselves from Mexico. In a related hilarious/frightening note, I've also seen US elementary school books showing the amazon as not belonging to any country, making Brazil less than half its size (and also restricting the surface of other neighboring countries, but not as significantly).
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dondon151

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Re: 2012 Elite Eight Bracket
« Reply #28 on: January 14, 2013, 01:03:06 pm »
0

DonDon won't have a lot of numbers given his past resistance to playing online (I know my record against DonDon: 1/1/1 - that right DD? The win was Potion/Herbalist. The loss was Torture/Chapel/Border Village. The tie was a 4P game where niether of us won I think...)

I don't remember the tie, but you're right on the other two. The only other player here that I've played is lespeutere and he beat me in the one game that we played.
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Re: 2012 Elite Eight Bracket
« Reply #29 on: January 14, 2013, 01:09:47 pm »
0

I'm still sticking to my guns with dondon.  I played a number of multiplayer games with him last summer when I was preparing for the regional tournament (same one I faced ed at).  I was amazed by how well dondon played despite being an unregisted user.  Thus it came as no surprise when he did well in the US national tournament. 
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Dekryr

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Re: 2012 Elite Eight Bracket
« Reply #30 on: January 14, 2013, 01:36:51 pm »
0

I'm taking Mic to win over Stef in the final. My random prediction sure to go wrong is that it takes stef 8 games to beat dondon
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Insomniac

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Re: 2012 Elite Eight Bracket
« Reply #31 on: January 14, 2013, 01:44:59 pm »
0

I'm very much like an Anerican. I just like to use the word "toque".

What the hell do Americans call a toque?  :o
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Polk5440

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Re: 2012 Elite Eight Bracket
« Reply #32 on: January 14, 2013, 02:22:39 pm »
0

I'm very much like an Anerican. I just like to use the word "toque".

What the hell do Americans call a toque?  :o

knitted hat/stocking cap -- if I've got the right toque. Otherwise, chef's hat.
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dondon151

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Re: 2012 Elite Eight Bracket
« Reply #33 on: January 14, 2013, 05:09:24 pm »
+1

What is an "Anerican?"  :o
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HiveMindEmulator

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Re: 2012 Elite Eight Bracket
« Reply #34 on: January 14, 2013, 05:11:36 pm »
0

It's "very much like" an American...
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Re: 2012 Elite Eight Bracket
« Reply #35 on: January 14, 2013, 05:12:52 pm »
+5

Theres clearly a spelling mistake in there, what was meant to be said was An Erican, who are people from the island nation of Eric, named after the Viking Erik the red who discovered it in 1207, who coincidentally very much favoured the toque.
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olneyce

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Re: 2012 Elite Eight Bracket
« Reply #36 on: January 14, 2013, 05:38:31 pm »
+3

Good luck to everyone in the final 8.  It's pretty awesome to make it even this far - as it seems like the competition this time around is a fair amount better than it even was last time.  Particularly impressive for WW to make it this far both years.

If I was going to bet, it would be on Stef.  But any of the remaining 8 would be a worthy winner.
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Chuckleslovakian

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Re: 2012 Elite Eight Bracket
« Reply #37 on: January 15, 2013, 05:32:33 pm »
+11

I tried to check on council room, but it times out.

It would be great to see what the win/loss records are against one another for the remaining 8.

DonDon won't have a lot of numbers given his past resistance to playing online (I know my record against DonDon: 1/1/1 - that right DD? The win was Potion/Herbalist. The loss was Torture/Chapel/Border Village. The tie was a 4P game where niether of us won I think...)

But everyone else should have a pretty substantial record against one another.

I know I'd be curious.

Ed
Looks like

-Stef- vs
dondon151 0-0
lespeutere 40-22
HiveMindEmulator 19-10-3
WanderingWinder 91-79-5
Mic Qsenoch 36-17-1
ednever 8-6
Obi Wan Bonogi 58-35-1

dondon151 vs
lespeutere 0-1
HiveMindEmulator 0-0
WanderingWinder 0-0
Mic Qsenoch 0-0
ednever 0-0
Obi Wan Bonogi 1-0

lespeutere vs
HiveMindEmulator 11-10-1
WanderingWinder 24-36-2
Mic Qsenoch 5-7-1
ednever 10-12
Obi Wan Bonogi 17-16-1

HiveMindEmulator vs
WanderingWinder 12-12
Mic Qsenoch 12-10
ednever 11-5-1
Obi Wan Bonogi 10-20-1

WanderingWinder vs
Mic Qsenoch 26-19-2
ednever 11-4
Obi Wan Bonogi 40-53-1

Mic Qsenoch vs
ednever 16-9-1
Obi Wan Bonogi 19-22

ednever vs
Obi Wan Bonogi 16-18-1

Might be a few mistakes in there though.
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Forge!!!

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Re: 2012 Elite Eight Bracket
« Reply #38 on: January 15, 2013, 05:49:41 pm »
0

Quality information from a quality name.
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dudeabides

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Re: 2012 Elite Eight Bracket
« Reply #39 on: January 15, 2013, 06:38:48 pm »
+2

I'm going to predict MicQ on this one, but I know by experience (and watching videos) all eight players are good so this is really anyone's tournament.

Edit: Dondon's record is so sparse that the first part of this analysis excludes him entirely
Anyone's tournament, indeed.  Thanks to Chuckleslovakian for generating the records! If the upcoming small sample of games is representative (alternately, if players' past records are representative of the upcoming small sample of games), then:


Lespeutere has a 52% chance of beating HME
WW has a 58% chance of beating Mic
OWB has a 53% chance of beating Ed
If Stef beats dondon, Stef has ~65% chance of beating either opponent.
If WW beats Mic, WW has a 73% chance of beating Ed, while OWB has a 57% chance of beating WW

Then, in the final Stef has a 53.5% chance of beating WW, 67.9% chance of beating Mic, 57.1% chance of beating Ed, and 62.4% chance of beating OWB.

Of course, if dondon beats Stef, he has a 100% chance of losing to lespeutere, but if he makes it to the final against OWB, he has a 100% chance of winning.   ;)

Making the simplifying assumption that a player's record against dondon is the average of their record against all players remaining in the tournament, I calculate the following odds of a player getting to the finals:

Stef   40.3%
Don   20.4%
Lesp   20.4%
HME   18.9%
   
WW   33.1%
Mic   23.1%
Ed   14.4%
OWB   29.4%

If I were a betting man (anyone making books on this one?  ;) ), I'd take Stef.
« Last Edit: January 15, 2013, 06:47:29 pm by dudeabides »
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TWoos

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Re: 2012 Elite Eight Bracket
« Reply #40 on: January 15, 2013, 06:46:01 pm »
0

Anyone's tournament, indeed.  Thanks to Chuckleslovakian for generating the records! If the upcoming small sample of games is representative (alternately, if players' past records are representative of the upcoming small sample of games), then:

The figures you posted would be odds on winning a single game, not the best 4 out of 7.  That's a more complicated calculation. 

I know I should sit down and pull out my probability textbook and show how to do it, but I'm lazy.
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dudeabides

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Re: 2012 Elite Eight Bracket
« Reply #41 on: January 15, 2013, 06:48:22 pm »
0

Anyone's tournament, indeed.  Thanks to Chuckleslovakian for generating the records! If the upcoming small sample of games is representative (alternately, if players' past records are representative of the upcoming small sample of games), then:

The figures you posted would be odds on winning a single game, not the best 4 out of 7.  That's a more complicated calculation. 

I know I should sit down and pull out my probability textbook and show how to do it, but I'm lazy.
Great point!  I should know better than that.  Simple binomial formula, right?
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dudeabides

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Re: 2012 Elite Eight Bracket
« Reply #42 on: January 15, 2013, 06:51:00 pm »
0

Nevermind.  The number of trials isn't fixed, so it's not a simple binomial formula.  The sum of the probabilities of winning 4 out of 4, 4 out of 5, 4 out of 6, 4 out of 7, and then that assumes there are no ties.
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jonts26

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Re: 2012 Elite Eight Bracket
« Reply #43 on: January 15, 2013, 06:51:17 pm »
0

Anyone's tournament, indeed.  Thanks to Chuckleslovakian for generating the records! If the upcoming small sample of games is representative (alternately, if players' past records are representative of the upcoming small sample of games), then:

The figures you posted would be odds on winning a single game, not the best 4 out of 7.  That's a more complicated calculation. 

I know I should sit down and pull out my probability textbook and show how to do it, but I'm lazy.
Great point!  I should know better than that.  Simple binomial formula, right?

sum[(7 choose n)(P^n)(1-P)^(7-n)] from n=4 to 7
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theory

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Re: 2012 Elite Eight Bracket
« Reply #44 on: January 15, 2013, 06:51:49 pm »
+2

According to http://www.mathgoespop.com/2011/10/playoff-probabilities.html, given probability p of winning a single game, odds of winning a 7game series is
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TWoos

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Re: 2012 Elite Eight Bracket
« Reply #45 on: January 15, 2013, 06:59:30 pm »
0

Nevermind.  The number of trials isn't fixed, so it's not a simple binomial formula.  The sum of the probabilities of winning 4 out of 4, 4 out of 5, 4 out of 6, 4 out of 7, and then that assumes there are no ties.

There's data on the likelihood of a tie.  But we can safely ignore them.  We extend the series until someone wins four anyway.
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jonts26

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Re: 2012 Elite Eight Bracket
« Reply #46 on: January 15, 2013, 07:03:13 pm »
0

According to http://www.mathgoespop.com/2011/10/playoff-probabilities.html, given probability p of winning a single game, odds of winning a 7game series is

Just checked the math and yeah thats the simplified version of what I wrote.
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dudeabides

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Re: 2012 Elite Eight Bracket
« Reply #47 on: January 15, 2013, 07:22:40 pm »
+1

My statistics and econometrics professors would be ashamed of me :(

Recalculated using theory's formula (thanks!), I get the following odds of making it to the finals:

Stef   48.39%
Don   26.09%
Lesp   13.89%
HME   11.63%
   
WW   39.7%
Mic   19.3%
Ed   5.7%
OWB   35.3%

Of course, the assumption that dondon's win rate against HME, for example, equals the average of all remaining players' win rates against HME is an awfully strong assumption. 

Edit: p.s. If anyone wants to check my math, please feel free to correct me.  My ego is already crushed ;)
« Last Edit: January 15, 2013, 07:24:05 pm by dudeabides »
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dondon151

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Re: 2012 Elite Eight Bracket
« Reply #48 on: January 15, 2013, 07:37:43 pm »
0

Yay! Assumptions!
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Beyond Awesome

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Re: 2012 Elite Eight Bracket
« Reply #49 on: January 15, 2013, 08:09:07 pm »
0

I'm voting for WW to win just because I like his videos, and I appreciate he puts them up.
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