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[sudgy]

(I have a feeling this would have been discussed before, but oh well)

I was wondering about this when me and my brother were playing and he would get mad when I got a gold on turn 3 or 4, blaming the luck.  So basically, just how much of dominion ability would you say is luck?

[michaeljb]

Well getting a Gold on turn 3 or 4 is certainly a matter of luck; I could open Moat/nothing and still buy a Gold turn 3, while you could open Silver/Silver and not be able to buy a Gold even after 7 turns (I expect the exact upper bound has probably been worked in the Puzzles/Challenges subforum, but it's easy enough to picture the shuffling in my head to get to at least 7). That is undeniably a matter of shuffle luck. In the long run, though, the better player will win more often.

[popsofctown]

In this particular case, more of the issue is that you perceive Gold as being a step ahead of the 5$ cards, and often it's not.

Though, sometimes, in base set, it is.  If you get expansion, Dominion rapidly becomes a more skill-based game.

[Titandrake]

Dominion skill has nothing to do with luck.

The outcome of the game is determined by luck and skill, but the two are mutually exclusive categories.

Luck is how the shuffles go and what cards Swindler hits. Skill is how you adapt to bad shuffles and build your deck to maximize the odds of a good Swindler hit and minimizing the odds of getting hit yourself.

That's pretty much it.

[pacovf]

In this particular case, more of the issue is that you perceive Gold as being a step ahead of the 5$ cards, and often it's not.

Though, sometimes, in base set, it is.  If you get expansion, Dominion rapidly becomes a more skill-based game.

I wouldn't go as far as saying that "Gold often isn't a step ahead of the 5$ cards". Aside from cursers, there aren't that many 5$ cards that you would rather have than a gold, pre-third shuffle, since it's "usually" too early to have a combo built. A gold all but guarantees that you will get that 5$ card that you wanted before your next reshuffle, but a 5$ card doesn't guarantee a gold, and there aren't that many strategies that don't rely on getting one or two of them.

[DG]

The reverse question is quite interesting: how much Dominion luck is skill? A good player will often maximize the chance of the best draws but still have a working plan to deal with poor draws.

[WanderingWinder]

In this particular case, more of the issue is that you perceive Gold as being a step ahead of the 5$ cards, and often it's not.

Though, sometimes, in base set, it is.  If you get expansion, Dominion rapidly becomes a more skill-based game.

I wouldn't go as far as saying that "Gold often isn't a step ahead of the 5$ cards". Aside from cursers, there aren't that many 5$ cards that you would rather have than a gold, pre-third shuffle, since it's "usually" too early to have a combo built. A gold all but guarantees that you will get that 5$ card that you wanted before your next reshuffle, but a 5$ card doesn't guarantee a gold, and there aren't that many strategies that don't rely on getting one or two of them.

Actually, if you're playing an engine (and these days, the best strategy on most boards seems to be engine), then you USUALLY want the 5-cost over the gold. In fact, you might well not want gold at all for the game, or usually if you do, not until late.
Your statement holds up for big money/slogs, but not much else.

[sudgy]

Just FIY, I have the base set, Intrigue, Seaside, Alchemy, and Prosperity and Cornucopia are coming in the mail soon.

Also, I just used gold as an example.  I know sometimes you want that $5 action card instead of it.

The reverse question is quite interesting: how much Dominion luck is skill? A good player will often maximize the chance of the best draws but still have a working plan to deal with poor draws.

Also, this is pure gold (no pun intended).

[Awaclus]

In this particular case, more of the issue is that you perceive Gold as being a step ahead of the 5$ cards, and often it's not.

Though, having two Estates miss the reshuffle is always a good thing and completely luck-dependent.

[Drab Emordnilap]

Though, having two Estates miss the reshuffle is always a good thing and completely luck-dependent.

Opening Remake?

/edgecase

[ftl]

Very little of Dominion skill is luck.

Looking back at things I thought about Dominion a year ago - I remember being annoyed at luck in some games. But looking back now, I'm 100% sure that most of those games where I got annoyed at my bad luck I could have won had I played better.

Yes, there's luck. But there's more skill than you can see, and the good players will usually win despite bad luck.

[AdamH]

The other night I played an IRL game. It was biased towards Dark Ages, but Goons was on the board (I think Marauder was as well). We both opened the same, and played largely the same except for one buy on $5 (I bought Cartographer and he bought Haggler). Halfway through the game I resigned because I was being slaughtered.

I proceeded to ask him how he got to where he did and why I didn't. He said he got lucky and I didn't. I said BS. Maybe there was some luck involved but there's no way I get unlucky on EVERY Goons board. He didn't budge. My conclusion: there's something he knows about Goons that I don't that he's just not telling me.

I fully acknowledge that Dominion is a high-skill/high-variance game. Put any scrub against WanderingWinder and he can win with a sub-par strategy (look over CR for my one game against WW for a perfect example). HOWEVER, the attitude I choose to take is that if I lost, I could have played better, and I will find the thing I could have done better (unless I can PROVE it wasn't better). It may not be the correct all the time, and it may not be possible to PROVE what was better, but I'm sure it will make me a better player.

You will have a hard time convincing me that luck is 10% as important as skill is in Dominion, even if you are right.

On a related note, these same people often tell me that I'll be completely killing them in a game, but still thinking it's close or I'm behind and playing as if I am. Granted, this is sometimes because I've miscounted how many Provinces I have (oops), but I believe this attitude improves game play as well.

[jonts26]

On a related note, these same people often tell me that I'll be completely killing them in a game, but still thinking it's close or I'm behind and playing as if I am. Granted, this is sometimes because I've miscounted how many Provinces I have (oops), but I believe this attitude improves game play as well.

I've noticed a lot of low to mid skill players have a hard time judging how far behind/ahead they really are. The score is sometimes a bad indicator of this, which doesnt help. I've had games where I'm down 4 provinces and know I have it in the bag. I've been up 4 provinces and nervous about my position. I've had many players resign on me thinking theyre out of it, but I know I'm a bad draw away from a close match again. I've had players tell me they have no shot, stick it out to the end, and end up winning. I rarely ever resign for this reason. Even if I find a turn 5 chapel, or I'm facing down a Mountebank open to my 4/3, I know I'm in a serious hole, but I'm only a couple of good breaks away from being back in it.

[AdamH]

My point was that I feel it's better to err on the side of not thinking you're doing as well as you really are, as opposed to the other side of the coin.

Yes, it's a problem when I buy a Duchy with $8 because I think I'll lose if I buy the last Province because I've miscounted. My outlook assumes that I have basic counting skills (which I clearly don't have, but I'm working on).

[sudgy]

Yes, it's a problem when I buy a Duchy with $8 because I think I'll lose if I buy the last Province because I've miscounted. My outlook assumes that I have basic counting skills (which I clearly don't have, but I'm working on).

Oh man, that reminds me when I thought I was behind in provinces (when there was one left) and I bought duchy/duchy instead of province/estate.  Turns out that if I had gotten the province, I would have won...  (I lost that game)

[jonts26]

So I think people are understating the amount of luck in dominion a bit. It has a lot of luck. But there are ways to mitigate luck (more reliable engines, e.g. lots of schemes), but you also have to know when to increase variance and rely on luck.

I generally play mostly people around my level which leads to a lot of mirrors, or near mirrors. Now of course there are going to be some tactical decisions which decide the game, but very often, its a matter of who gets luckier. And early luck is generally a bigger boon than later luck. So if I get a turn 5 chapel, well I need a lot of luck or a huge misplay from my opponent to catch up. And I don't count on my opponent misplaying. So I start to make higher variance moves. It does take skill to recognize when you are behind and to identify what counts as higher variance vs. safe, but in any event, I still have to count on luck being in my favor if I want to win.

[AdamH]

Just because two high-level people both took the same strategy doesn't mean it was the best one available. If that happened a significant portion of the games I played, I wouldn't like Dominion as much as I do.

[jonts26]

Just because two high-level people both took the same strategy doesn't mean it was the best one available. If that happened a significant portion of the games I played, I wouldn't like Dominion as much as I do.

I never mentioned it being a high level phenomenon. It's a people around the same level phenomenon, though it's likely more severe at higher levels. In any case, you are of course right. It's easy to miss the best strategy if you see your opponent going for a strategy you know works well and you just follow him into it.

[dondon151]

Yeah, when I win against a player of similar or higher levels, either I picked a clearly superior strategy or got better luck. If I win against a player of lower level, I can occasionally snatch victory from the jaws of defeat if the opponent makes a grievous tactical error but doesn't realize it and I capitalize on the mistake.

[WanderingWinder]

I find tactics is a pretty big deal at any level, but I do agree that it's a bigger differentiator between calibres than people realize - you can steal WAY more than you'd think from a worse strategy, just by knowing your tactical tricks and such.

[popsofctown]

I find tactics is a pretty big deal at any level, but I do agree that it's a bigger differentiator between calibres than people realize - you can steal WAY more than you'd think from a worse strategy, just by knowing your tactical tricks and such.

^This dude is cray cray, he Governor-shares Duchies into Golds

[Kirian]

It depends on the board.

/ducks

[WanderingWinder]

I find tactics is a pretty big deal at any level, but I do agree that it's a bigger differentiator between calibres than people realize - you can steal WAY more than you'd think from a worse strategy, just by knowing your tactical tricks and such.

^This dude is cray cray, he Governor-shares Duchies into Golds

When did I do that?