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Author Topic: Mafia XXI: Another Dinner Party! - Mafia Win Flawlessly  (Read 108914 times)

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liopoil

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Re: Mafia XXI: Another Dinner Party! (Newbie Priority Game - Day 3)
« Reply #800 on: February 11, 2013, 11:47:17 am »

I think the sudgy-mcmc scumteam should be seriously considered. Yes they have been pushing lynches on each other, both saying with certainty that the other is scum. But imagine what happens if we assume that it's either liopoil-mcmc or raerae-sudgy, but it's actually mcmc-sudgy:

mcmc-sudgy cannot lose

If we lynch mcmc, he flips scum, sudgy kills raerae or kooshie, then we lynch liopoil because we assume he must be mcmc's partner and sudgy-mcmc wins

If we lynch sudgy, he flips scum, mcmc kills kooshie or liopoil, then we lynch raerae because we assume she must be sudgy's partner, and sudgy-mcmc wins

If we lynch liopoil, sudgy-mcmc win

If we lynch raerae, sudgy-mcmc win.

If we lynch Kooshie, sudgy-mcmc win.

So mcmc-sudgy could be sacrificing one of their members to insure the win the next day. This is why I think it is a very plausible scenario, equally likely from my perspective as sudgy-raerae.
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sudgy

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Re: Mafia XXI: Another Dinner Party! (Newbie Priority Game - Day 3)
« Reply #801 on: February 11, 2013, 01:18:18 pm »

I think the sudgy-mcmc scumteam should be seriously considered. Yes they have been pushing lynches on each other, both saying with certainty that the other is scum. But imagine what happens if we assume that it's either liopoil-mcmc or raerae-sudgy, but it's actually mcmc-sudgy:

mcmc-sudgy cannot lose

If we lynch mcmc, he flips scum, sudgy kills raerae or kooshie, then we lynch liopoil because we assume he must be mcmc's partner and sudgy-mcmc wins

If we lynch sudgy, he flips scum, mcmc kills kooshie or liopoil, then we lynch raerae because we assume she must be sudgy's partner, and sudgy-mcmc wins

If we lynch liopoil, sudgy-mcmc win

If we lynch raerae, sudgy-mcmc win.

If we lynch Kooshie, sudgy-mcmc win.

So mcmc-sudgy could be sacrificing one of their members to insure the win the next day. This is why I think it is a very plausible scenario, equally likely from my perspective as sudgy-raerae.

So you think we were somehow planning this since D-2 when there were more people?
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   Quote from: sudgy on June 31, 2011, 11:47:46 pm

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Re: Mafia XXI: Another Dinner Party! (Newbie Priority Game - Day 3)
« Reply #802 on: February 11, 2013, 01:29:07 pm »

Also, you could be doing this to ensure that you win.  "Oh, it has to be mcmc/sudgy, so we'll lynch them two and then I'll win as mcmc's mafia buddy."
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   Quote from: sudgy on June 31, 2011, 11:47:46 pm

raerae

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Re: Mafia XXI: Another Dinner Party! (Newbie Priority Game - Day 3)
« Reply #803 on: February 11, 2013, 01:30:50 pm »

...if, like me, you have been voting for somebody since before this came up, and that person hasn't been hammered, it seems pretty safe that that person is scum....
...or you're scum.

True, but this was before talk of how voting is bad had happened so were I scum and we had decided to push a mislynch on mcmc (and considering that quick-hammer it would be the most logical/easiest mislynch), my scumbuddy would have been on there with me right away.  If sudgy were my partner, he would have stayed on mcmc. That way, when somebody inevitably pointed out that we put somebody at L-1 hours into the day, one or both of us could have backed off without too much suspicion.
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raerae

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Re: Mafia XXI: Another Dinner Party! (Newbie Priority Game - Day 3)
« Reply #804 on: February 11, 2013, 01:32:25 pm »

Lio, have you commented on mcmcsalot ending D2 less than 3 RL days into it? If so, please point me in that direction. If not, care to?
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raerae

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Re: Mafia XXI: Another Dinner Party! (Newbie Priority Game - Day 3)
« Reply #805 on: February 11, 2013, 01:45:09 pm »

Also, I'm at lunch so only on for a few more minutes but wanted to throw this down while I'm thinking about it. Can somebody pull the votes for the last two lynches? I'm on my phone so can't right now but certainly will when I get home if nobody has the time/sees the merit. I feel like that would be interesting. Also, EFHW died and nobody has analyzed that. I plan on doing that tonight but just wanted to point out that out.
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liopoil

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Re: Mafia XXI: Another Dinner Party! (Newbie Priority Game - Day 3)
« Reply #806 on: February 11, 2013, 02:18:26 pm »

I feel like I might have mentioned this in less detail somewhere, but I'll just say it again in response to raerae:

I think that the mcmc hammer was VERY scummy. He has very little motivation to do this as town. Perhaps he did believe that there wasn't much more that was to be said that day and was ready for it to end, but still.
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liopoil

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Re: Mafia XXI: Another Dinner Party! (Newbie Priority Game - Day 3)
« Reply #807 on: February 11, 2013, 02:20:18 pm »

Sudgy: I am not saying that an mcmc-sudgy scumteam is more likely than raerae-sudgy, just that is definatly something that should be put into at least some consideration. I am starting to believe it to be quite likely because of the mcmc hammer and the sudgy's response to me voicing the possibility.
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Kooshie

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Re: Mafia XXI: Another Dinner Party! (Newbie Priority Game - Day 3)
« Reply #808 on: February 11, 2013, 02:21:22 pm »

Also, I'm at lunch so only on for a few more minutes but wanted to throw this down while I'm thinking about it. Can somebody pull the votes for the last two lynches? I'm on my phone so can't right now but certainly will when I get home if nobody has the time/sees the merit. I feel like that would be interesting. Also, EFHW died and nobody has analyzed that. I plan on doing that tonight but just wanted to point out that out.
I think that efhw died because she was being really active: posting reads, scumhunting, and was probably pretty accurate, too.  We should all look at what she said before she died.
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liopoil

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Re: Mafia XXI: Another Dinner Party! (Newbie Priority Game - Day 3)
« Reply #809 on: February 11, 2013, 02:22:04 pm »

a raerae-mcmc scumteam is at least a little bit possible too. Yes, there was a period where they could have quickhammered me if this were the case, but maybe they were never on at the same time. Still unlikely.
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liopoil

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Re: Mafia XXI: Another Dinner Party! (Newbie Priority Game - Day 3)
« Reply #810 on: February 11, 2013, 02:23:44 pm »

So you think we were somehow planning this since D-2 when there were more people?

It would have worked just as well then. Had we lynched mcmc D2 it seems unlikely that we would ever lynch sudgy.
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Re: Mafia XXI: Another Dinner Party! (Newbie Priority Game - Day 3)
« Reply #811 on: February 11, 2013, 04:21:48 pm »

Vote Count 3.6:

mcmcsalot (2): raerae, sudgy {L-1}
sudgy (2): mcmcsalot, liopoil {L-1}

Not Voting (1): Kooshie

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch.

Day 3 ends on February 22 at 4:00 p.m. forum time.
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liopoil

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Re: Mafia XXI: Another Dinner Party! (Newbie Priority Game - Day 3)
« Reply #812 on: February 11, 2013, 05:31:49 pm »

Kooshie is going to eventually decide who to lynch. She should ask lots of questions so that hopefully she will make the right decision for town.

There is no reason to lynch liopoil/raerae today. If we think that one of them is scum then we also think that mcmc/sudgy is scum, respectively, whereas if we think mcmc/sudgy is scum we don't necessarily think that liopoil/raerae is scum because the team could be mcmc-sudgy.

So kooshie, the game is in your hands.
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Kooshie

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Re: Mafia XXI: Another Dinner Party! (Newbie Priority Game - Day 3)
« Reply #813 on: February 11, 2013, 06:14:25 pm »

Kooshie is going to eventually decide who to lynch. She should ask lots of questions so that hopefully she will make the right decision for town.

There is no reason to lynch liopoil/raerae today. If we think that one of them is scum then we also think that mcmc/sudgy is scum, respectively, whereas if we think mcmc/sudgy is scum we don't necessarily think that liopoil/raerae is scum because the team could be mcmc-sudgy.

So kooshie, the game is in your hands.
I'm definitely not going to end the game today.  I will ask a lot of questions, reread things, and ask that everybody continue to say things so I can gather more and more data, so I can figure out an accurate result.  I might even use math!  *gasp*
Liopoil, I don't think that you have said straight out who you think the scum team is.  When you say perspective, you mean assuming that you're town? 
Yes, I suppose the game is in my hands.  I have been king-made.  I am the consequential innocent child.  I have a lot of pressure on me...  So does this mean that if I vote for someone who is not at L-1, will everybody switch that vote to that person?  Is the game wholly at my mercy?  I think not.  I can vote for sudgy or mcmc and end the game, but if someone truly does think that who I vote for is scum, they will not follow along like a blind, meek creature who only knows of me, and nothing else, and so will heed my every word.  I am not in complete control.
Please excuse my excessive poetic-ness, it just happens sometimes.
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raerae

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Re: Mafia XXI: Another Dinner Party! (Newbie Priority Game - Day 3)
« Reply #814 on: February 11, 2013, 06:50:18 pm »

OK, as promised, here is a look at the D1 and D2 votes.

D2
Robz888 (1): raerae
liopoil (1): mail-mi
mail-mi (5): mcmcsalot, EFHW, sudgy, Kooshie, Robz888

D3
sudgy (2): Robz888
mcmcsalot (2): sudgy, raerae
Robz888 (3): EFHW, liopoil, Kooshie, mcmcsalot

OK, so we have mcmc, EFHW, and Kooshie on both lynches.  Lio wasn't voting at the end of D1. Mcmc was on sudgy moments before hammering robz. 

Robz and EFHW are confirmed town.  I think there had to be at least one scum on the D1 lynch so that gives us mcmc, sudgy, and Kooshie.  Same with D2, there had to be one scum there so if we compare that with D1 we come out with mcmc and Kooshie.  Since Kooshie has to be town or she would have hammered by now, mcmc has to be our scum. 
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liopoil

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Re: Mafia XXI: Another Dinner Party! (Newbie Priority Game - Day 3)
« Reply #815 on: February 11, 2013, 06:59:32 pm »

Kooshie, there is absolutely no reason to lynch anyone who isn't sudgy or mcmc.

The five people are kooshie, raerae, liopoil, sudgy, and mcmc. There is no reason to lynch kooshie because she is confirmed town. If raerae is scum then sudgy must also be scum. sudgy could also be partners with mcmc though. therefore if we think raerae is scum we should lynch sudgy instead. if liopiol is scum mcmc must also be scum. mcmc could also be partners with sudgy though. therefore if we think liopoil is scum we should lynch mcmc instead.

Kooshie: from my perspective I KNOW with absolute certainty that sudgy must be scum. I know that I am town, and kooshie is town. If sudgy were town the team would be mcmc-raerae. if the team were mcmc-raerae they would have hammered me when sudgy was voting for me. so scratch what I said earlier about a possible raerae-mcmc team, it pretty much certainly isn't true. Therefore I know that sudgy must be scum. So I want kooshie to hammer sudgy. I suppose this would probably still be true if I was scum, but there it is. I know that the other scum is mcmc or raerae, but I am not sure which I think it is. I think I might be leaning mcmc at this point

Kooshie, assuming we lynch scum today, there is a good chance you will die that night, because you will be confirmed town. Make sure to tell us who you want to lynch tomorrow assuming whoever you hammer flips scum and you are nightkilled before you hammer. We are going to have two options tomorrow: whichever of sudgy-mcmc that isn't lynched, and liopoil/raerae, depending on which of sudgy/mcmc we lynch.
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mcmcsalot

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Re: Mafia XXI: Another Dinner Party! (Newbie Priority Game - Day 3)
« Reply #816 on: February 11, 2013, 07:04:45 pm »

OK, as promised, here is a look at the D1 and D2 votes.

D2
Robz888 (1): raerae
liopoil (1): mail-mi
mail-mi (5): mcmcsalot, EFHW, sudgy, Kooshie, Robz888

D3
sudgy (2): Robz888
mcmcsalot (2): sudgy, raerae
Robz888 (3): EFHW, liopoil, Kooshie, mcmcsalot

OK, so we have mcmc, EFHW, and Kooshie on both lynches.  Lio wasn't voting at the end of D1. Mcmc was on sudgy moments before hammering robz. 

Robz and EFHW are confirmed town.  I think there had to be at least one scum on the D1 lynch so that gives us mcmc, sudgy, and Kooshie.  Same with D2, there had to be one scum there so if we compare that with D1 we come out with mcmc and Kooshie.  Since Kooshie has to be town or she would have hammered by now, mcmc has to be our scum. 

I was on sudgy yesterday and wanted sudgy lynched. I thought sudgy rearea was the scum team which meant the entire town other than me was on robz, so I decided robz was the lynch town wanted. I also thought that robz had the potential to be scum with sudgy so I wasn't against the robz lynch.

I find it more interesting that you were on robz and wanted him lynched all of D1 and then all of the sudden everyone decides robz is the correct lynch and you aren't on the wagon. Scum wants to be off wagon and stay low key.
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Kooshie

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Re: Mafia XXI: Another Dinner Party! (Newbie Priority Game - Day 3)
« Reply #817 on: February 11, 2013, 07:10:52 pm »

OK, as promised, here is a look at the D1 and D2 votes.

D2
Robz888 (1): raerae
liopoil (1): mail-mi
mail-mi (5): mcmcsalot, EFHW, sudgy, Kooshie, Robz888

D3
sudgy (2): Robz888
mcmcsalot (2): sudgy, raerae
Robz888 (3): EFHW, liopoil, Kooshie, mcmcsalot

OK, so we have mcmc, EFHW, and Kooshie on both lynches.  Lio wasn't voting at the end of D1. Mcmc was on sudgy moments before hammering robz. 

Robz and EFHW are confirmed town.  I think there had to be at least one scum on the D1 lynch so that gives us mcmc, sudgy, and Kooshie.  Same with D2, there had to be one scum there so if we compare that with D1 we come out with mcmc and Kooshie.  Since Kooshie has to be town or she would have hammered by now, mcmc has to be our scum.
I quickly saw what I underlined, but I don't quite understand the rest.  Could you make it a bit more clear for me?
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raerae

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Re: Mafia XXI: Another Dinner Party! (Newbie Priority Game - Day 3)
« Reply #818 on: February 11, 2013, 07:22:14 pm »

EFHW D2 Reread:

First post after the flip asks if a vet killed jimmmmm for recognizing he had a PR.  This was a good thought and I think she was on to something.

The next few posts she asks good towny questions (why would scum jump around so much (re: sudgy), why mcmc hasn't mentioned any of robz' town/scum qualities that she found when reading games, tries to get robz to participate, etc.).  She was the first one to suggest a robz/mcmc scumteam and she basically challenged mcmc for most of the day.  Here is her vote on robz, less than convinced he's scum, right?

VOTE: Robz888 until we hear something substantial from him to change my mind.

Then somebody prematurely hammered and she died that night so...yeah, that sucks.

Here's my theory:  mcmc is on a scumteam (I'm leaning toward lio being her partner but am not sold on that yet).  mcmc is a smart guy, good at basic math, knows that EFHW, sudgy, and myself are three whole people who suspect him and that just happens to be the magic lynch number for D3 so he has to kill one of us.  EFHW was the towniest of the bunch so scum have to kill her because a mislynch on either sudgy or myself would be much easier than a mislynch on EFHW.
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mcmcsalot

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Re: Mafia XXI: Another Dinner Party! (Newbie Priority Game - Day 3)
« Reply #819 on: February 11, 2013, 07:33:07 pm »

EFHW D2 Reread:

First post after the flip asks if a vet killed jimmmmm for recognizing he had a PR.  This was a good thought and I think she was on to something.

The next few posts she asks good towny questions (why would scum jump around so much (re: sudgy), why mcmc hasn't mentioned any of robz' town/scum qualities that she found when reading games, tries to get robz to participate, etc.).  She was the first one to suggest a robz/mcmc scumteam and she basically challenged mcmc for most of the day.  Here is her vote on robz, less than convinced he's scum, right?

VOTE: Robz888 until we hear something substantial from him to change my mind.

Then somebody prematurely hammered and she died that night so...yeah, that sucks.

Here's my theory:  mcmc is on a scumteam (I'm leaning toward lio being her partner but am not sold on that yet).  mcmc is a smart guy, good at basic math, knows that EFHW, sudgy, and myself are three whole people who suspect him and that just happens to be the magic lynch number for D3 so he has to kill one of us.  EFHW was the towniest of the bunch so scum have to kill her because a mislynch on either sudgy or myself would be much easier than a mislynch on EFHW.

A few things to mention, first raerae I think you could have thought of this agrgument and killed efhw to cast suspicion on me. Second I think it should be pretty clear robz is one of the hardest people to read and being his brother I had a relatively good way to track when hes town, this was reliable because he was unaware of it and could not mimic the play as scum. This was why I was reluctant to give the reason for my town read.
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raerae

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Re: Mafia XXI: Another Dinner Party! (Newbie Priority Game - Day 3)
« Reply #820 on: February 11, 2013, 07:34:04 pm »

I quickly saw what I underlined, but I don't quite understand the rest.  Could you make it a bit more clear for me?

I can try. I'm not always the best at explaining so if I don't get it this time just keep asking.

I believe there had to be at least one of the two scum on the D1 lynch so that's where the "I think" comes in.  I don't know that there 100% and without a doubt scum on the D1 lynch but I think it seems super likely.

I also believe this to be true for the D2 lynch.  I just can't fathom scum not on a lynch at all and the lynch being 100% town driven.  That just seems unlikely.

So, I compared the lynches to see who was on both and came up with mcmc, EFHW, and yourself.  Then I removed the dead people.  That left you and mcmc.  You have faux-IC status because if you were scum you would have hammered by now.  Unless you're weird and sadistic and just want to watch us flounder.  That's creepy.  So, by this logic (and I fully admit it could be flawed but I don't believe it is), mcmc is scum.
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Re: Mafia XXI: Another Dinner Party! (Newbie Priority Game - Day 3)
« Reply #821 on: February 11, 2013, 07:35:05 pm »

Gotta go coach small childrens so v/la for a couple hours.
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Re: Mafia XXI: Another Dinner Party! (Newbie Priority Game - Day 3)
« Reply #822 on: February 11, 2013, 07:36:59 pm »

OK, as promised, here is a look at the D1 and D2 votes.

D2
Robz888 (1): raerae
liopoil (1): mail-mi
mail-mi (5): mcmcsalot, EFHW, sudgy, Kooshie, Robz888

D3
sudgy (2): Robz888
mcmcsalot (2): sudgy, raerae
Robz888 (3): EFHW, liopoil, Kooshie, mcmcsalot

OK, so we have mcmc, EFHW, and Kooshie on both lynches.  Lio wasn't voting at the end of D1. Mcmc was on sudgy moments before hammering robz. 

Robz and EFHW are confirmed town.  I think there had to be at least one scum on the D1 lynch so that gives us mcmc, sudgy, and Kooshie.  Same with D2, there had to be one scum there so if we compare that with D1 we come out with mcmc and Kooshie.  Since Kooshie has to be town or she would have hammered by now, mcmc has to be our scum.
I quickly saw what I underlined, but I don't quite understand the rest.  Could you make it a bit more clear for me?

I believe she is saying it would be difficult to get a lynch without having scum vote for town. I think the opposite, as long as scum defend there partner all game and drive the lynch away from them they can sit back and watch town lynch town every day. This is what raerae did D2 when I had a solid case on sudgy, she defended him and pushed to lynch robz instead and then sat back and didn't vote for him waiting for town to lynch town.

Ah I see she explained herself while I was typing.
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Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

Kooshie

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Re: Mafia XXI: Another Dinner Party! (Newbie Priority Game - Day 3)
« Reply #823 on: February 11, 2013, 08:31:11 pm »

Mcmc and raerae, please stop hinting at and badgering each other.  All this just makes makes everything more confusing, and makes me think that you're bussing, or something of the sort.  I would rather liopoil and sudgy talked about their reasons: not that your reasons aren't good, but I want to hear some voices that aren't constantly accusing each other indirectly.
Okay, maybe not constantly, but still...
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Re: Mafia XXI: Another Dinner Party! (Newbie Priority Game - Day 3)
« Reply #824 on: February 11, 2013, 09:55:04 pm »

Mcmc and raerae, please stop hinting at and badgering each other.  All this just makes makes everything more confusing, and makes me think that you're bussing, or something of the sort.  I would rather liopoil and sudgy talked about their reasons: not that your reasons aren't good, but I want to hear some voices that aren't constantly accusing each other indirectly.
Okay, maybe not constantly, but still...

Yeah, I was thinking about this on the way to bball.  After this one last clarification, I'm done being sneaky snarky.  It was D1 I defended sudgy and voted for Robz.  D1, not D2.
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