yay RVS...
Okay, so theory-wise, we know practically nothing. So, let's go ahead and see what we know: (all of this has probably already been mentioned and can be found in the opening post, I'm just trying to condense it)
1. Everyone has at least a minor role. (might be negative utility)
2. Flavor names are at least tenuously tied to powers. (I'm assuming based on the "knowing more about the show will help you make guesses about people's roles")
3. "These roles, and characters, will be assigned 100% independent of alignment." (except the cops obviously)
4. There are 2 scum-"teams". (one might be SK)
And, that's about it?
Okay, so first point of interesting theory discussion: "follow-the-cop". This requires a doctor. Let's suppose for a moment that Dr. Bashir has the doctor role. Based on 3 above, he might be scum-aligned. Based on 1 above this is a fully accepted possibility. Of course there could simply be no doctor...I'll refer to the opening flavor post of the game: "Blood Tests, Scans, and Investigations". Three flavors of investigation, with 3 investigators...coincidence? I doubt it. It might be that Dr. Bashir administers blood tests, which detect, say, changelings. So, I don't think follow-the-cop is going to be very effective. Nonetheless a cop claiming to take down scum is usually worth it, since the chance of protection might be sufficient, though not knowing the alignment of the cop definitely throws a wrench in things. I think it's reasonable to discuss this at some point, should cop try to remain hidden and just push on the scum hard?
Second point: 2 scum teams, 15 player game, how big do you think they are? Let's see: way back in IV I think our 15-player game maxed out at 4 scum (3 mafia + SK), and that still seems reasonable to me. But 2 scum-teams, I'm a little less sure. 2 and 2? That seems kind of low to me...3 and 3 seems ridiculous high though. So, I'd assume 3 and 2? Maybe it depends on the powers given?
Okay, let's suppose 5 scum for the moment as a kind of worst-case scenario. Let's suppose that we NEVER hit scum, and scum never hits each other. How many mislynches do we have before we lose? 2 NKs + lynch = 3 deaths. Um, after 6 deaths we have 9 players which is pretty close to town loss (although we could pull out of it if scum shot each other). So, town may lose after a second mislynch? 3 mislynches is pretty much a loss if we don't take out a NK earlier. Obviously (as with all multi-scum games) there's a lot of variability here. Scum shooting each other and successful protective roles being pretty major. But I think especially because of that swinginess we should try not to walk into the lynch too quickly. Let's see: 2 week deadlines this game, so
day1 ends Jan 18, 7:10pm right? Also, although we should take our time, we don't want to no lynch here (2 non-town directed deaths after skipping a lynch sounds like bad news). I think soft deadlines help with that particular situation, so should we play as though the day were ending Wednesday Jan 16th?
Third Point: name-claiming. Obviously bad, but given the confusions cited I can understand why some thought it was a good idea.
Flavor-wise I'll note that I have watched enough DS9 to find the opening flavor funny, but not enough to have intimate familiarity with the show, I knew who my character was without referencing the wiki though

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