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-Stef-

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A surprising kingdom
« on: January 01, 2013, 09:44:05 am »
+6

At the start of a game I just played, I felt pretty lost on what to do. And that already made it a good kingdom :). I'll talk you through, using spoiler tags allowing you to come up with answers for yourself first if you feel like it.

This was the kingdom (no colonies):
$7: Expand
$6: Farmland
$5: City, Duke, Treasury, Vault
$4: Ironworks, Bureaucrat, Nomad Camp
$3: Masquerade

What initial thoughts come to mind when looking at this kingdom?
Duke is the first card that springs out to me. Even when I don't want to play Duke myself, with only Farmland and no chips, there is just no way I can completely ignore it. Besides, it has some good support in the silver-gainers Bureaucrat and Ironworks. Vault could be good because even when everything is green Vault will still get you up to $5.

Any viable alternatives?
I always at least look for an engine. At some point this engine will be very strong, but it looks like a ton of work to get there. Basically you need a lot of Cities and some Expands, and then it will only work after a pile runs out, and they both cost a lot. However - one bit of good news is that Masquerade and Treasury are the perfect cards for engines that require expensive cards soon. I will have to contest Duchies, which is both bad news (bad cards in my deck) and good news (a likely candidate for an empty pile). Besides, with both Expand and Farmland, those Duchies don't have to be in there forever.

Which plan do you like more? This game was played without identical starting hands - could 4/3 or 5/2 affect your decision in any way? P1 or P2?
My guts told me going for Duchies with some silver gainers would be dominating on any start. But my opponent bought a Bureaucrat for $4 and I looked at a $5 hand. I could off course try to fight his Bureaucrat/Silver start with Bureaucrat/-, but already being player 2 I really didn't like that. Vault looked bad too because it just comes too early. I need those Silver gainers first and maybe then a Vault. Besides Vault also helps him. So in the end... I felt somewhat lost and picked up a Treasury.

Then the game really started... Both my opponent and I had $5 without any actions on our turn 3. What would you get?
Already having a Bureaucrat, he got his first Duchy. Turn 3 may look early, but in a game that looks like it's going to be all about the Duchy split I can't really disagree. I picked up a City, which at the time looked a lot worse - investing $5 in a card that literally does nothing in my current deck. On turn 4 we both had $3 (as could be expected) and he got a Silver while I got a Masquerade

Then he continued his hunt for Duchies, while I had to choose between building up an engine and contesting them. At what point would you buy Duchies here in the engine?
I told myself I'd be lost on a 2-6 split, and expected to have a good chance on 3-5. Even thought he had already 3 Duchies in his deck by turn 6, that meant I still had quite some time to develop first. No way that he could just continue Duchies straight after buying so much early green. So I first picked up another Masquerade, another City, and a gold. On turn 8 I got my first Duchy, and with him missing $5 on turns 7 & 8 the Expand on turn 9 was easy choice. On his turn 11 he got the last Duchy, having only 5 as I hoped for.

How do you think it will go from here?
Well with level 2 cities it was pretty easy sailing for the engine, and 5 Duchies were not even close to being a threat. In hindsight 6 wouldn't have been a problem either. The reason why it was so clear cut was still a bit surprising. I bought a Bureaucrat for myself, and a bit later a second. Playing those every single turn almost got his deck to a full stop. I even could have annoyed him more by downgrading the free silver into a curse and masquerade it over, but there was no need to. In the end it was a very clear-cut victory for a strategy I was somewhat forced into by my draws but would never have taken voluntarily. Now I'm sure I want to go engine on this board no matter how we start. At the end of this sentence you'll find the log.
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WanderingWinder

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Re: A surprising kingdom
« Reply #1 on: January 01, 2013, 10:09:20 pm »
+1

I think the takeaway here should be 'Stef outplayed his opponent' rather than 'Stef's engine strategy is the superior one for this board'.

I want to look at turn 3. He buys a duchy. You say you can't really disagree with this, but I certainly can (not that it's so simple to see; but this is definitely a mistake). He should definitely be picking up something else here - probably a vault, maybe a second bureaucrat, maybe a treasury, maybe even a city. The thing is, you opened treasury/- here. That does not look like you want to go for slog v slog duchy madness. Treasury is not such a good card for such a game - you are buying green too often for it to be much more than a peddler, and with as low money density as you'd have, it's one of the worst kinds of decks for peddlers. Also, you don't buy the copper, which you would definitely want to do in that kind of a deck.

So, turn 3 is probably even a little early for a straight mirror kind of match (though it's close; I would guess bureaucrat is better there though), but against an engine, it's definitely early. Since you've signalled so hard for engine, he should look to try to play against that - this is why I say vault. If he picks up vault, what can you do? Head for your engine anyway? What are you piling out for the cities? If you try to run the cities yourself, he can go big money, and since bureaucrat and vault both provide good longevity, I have to think he's going to be too far gone before you can get meaningful activation. And if you go for duchies, he has a choice. One is to let you go, and try to race for enough provinces - your deck is really not set up for a slog that well, it's not like you're going to run to all those duchies and enough dukes all that quickly. Still, that's so good against money that he will probably be compelled to join in on the duchies, IF you go duchy soon enough, i.e. before you get very many cities. But in this case, he has built up more than you , and can at least split the duchies probably, and outlast you though the slog. This is the problem with vault though, the mirror, because it only guarantees a duchy/duke, which silver comes pretty close to anyway, and the drawback is big against a duchy/duke opponent. Still, it can get you up to provinces sometimes too, which is massive if the duchies are split. So that's why I like it. Treasury and city give sort of split options, which can help him hedge his bets a little better (though city is mostly defensive against your engine, being a lab later on in a mirror, which is not all that hot).

Later on in the game, he gets pretty bad shuffle luck - his bureaucrat misses until turn 5, I assume you pass him an estate to leave him with $2 on turn 8 (and he doesn't buy copper.....), and he can only get 5 duchies on turn 10, when you're able to finish them off (and already have 2 cities, a gold, and an expand... you have actually bought MORE 5+ costs than him at that point...). He compounds things by just plowing ahead though. First, after you go city/masq/masq on turns 3-5, it should be VERY clear you aren't contesting duchy/duke, and he should slow down to build more. Even if you don't end up contesting those duchies, he is going to need 11 of those guys or more, and he needs more economy to be able to support that as quick as possible. Not to mention that it powers your city. Yet he continues buying duchy every chance he gets. He also continues not getting copper.
Now, let's look at the head down, I'm going to buy duchies every chance I get strategy he took. If he only gets 5-3, as in the game, he's basically dead. Let's go ahead and assume that you will get rid of all your duchies and estates and he'll have, well maybe 2 estates left. You are going to get all of the provinces by game end, because he can't dare contest you to speed things up, and he has no real way to 3 pile unless you really overbuy cities without being close enough to the lead. How many dukes does he need to overcome all the provinces? Well, that's 48 points, 15 are covered by duchies... this leaves 33 for dukes, which means 7. And of course, you can possibly buy say 2 at some point, to expand into provinces... and well, he's basically toast. If he gets 6 duchies, which is probably most likely, then he needs only 5 more dukes to balance out the provinces, though maybe with the farmlands, that's a little sketchy anyway. But this, this might be close - depend a bit on shuffle luck. 7 Duchies is really where he wants to be - there 4 more dukes will be sufficient, and he can almost certainly get that in time, then lock it away with number 5 and/or 6 at some convenience. But he's going to need to get quite lucky for that to happen. Note that if you don't contest at all, he DEFINITELY shouldn't get duchy #8 here, as it empties the pile for your cities (I'm presuming you'd buy these if you aren't getting the duchies). He has to think about not getting #7.

Now, given that this head down strategy probably turns out not so hot for him, he has another alternative, which is to go in for 3-4 duchies and then stop and start building. If you are going to contest, you are going to have to go pretty far in for duchies to pile out, which will slow you down. In the meantime, he can start grabbing cities of his own. This can be good, as he's going to have better longevity for the stalled out decks, though I have to think you're probably at an advantage there, since you're masquerades have trashed you down (they are VERY key for you here, along with city and expand).
This means that he probably needs to change something a bit earlier - again I'd point to turn 3 as optimal time, though turn 5 or 6 should really not be too late, and there it is clearly mistaken to be getting duchies, though again you draw REALLY well to put on SUCH a convincing demonstration.


Long story short, he failed to adapt to his situation, whereas you did, and that, along with some shuffle luck to make it lopsidedly gross instead of clear advantage you, is the story of this one, I think.




Oh, and I don't get your comment about downgrading to curses. What do you mean by that?

dondon151

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Re: A surprising kingdom
« Reply #2 on: January 02, 2013, 12:29:07 am »
0

Oh, and I don't get your comment about downgrading to curses. What do you mean by that?

Duke likes Coppers, right?

But the problem with Duke-BM is that the deck cycles sooo slowly. With gainers and/or terminal +buy, you can expect to have maybe ~25 cards in deck at around turn 10? What -Stef- is saying is that he can get a Curse in hand, Masquerade it over to you (receiving probably a Copper or Estate in return), and in a deck full of Duchies, maybe Dukes, support cards, and Copper/Silver, there's nothing in hand that you'd want to pass over. If you pass over a Copper, that could knock your hand value down from $5 to $4, which is bad. And because it takes ~4-5 turns for you to go through a shuffle at this point in the game, you have no way of getting rid of those Curses until you draw them again and -Stef- decides to play Masq, but you're not guaranteed to do that if -Stef- just doesn't play the Masq in the first place.

Then you're looking at a deck that has 4-5 Curses and lost a couple of Coppers along the way, which is already bogged down with green. You'd probably have to rebuild a little bit in order to hit $5 even somewhat consistently again (barring Vault), and you won't see those cards for another shuffle, which is 5-6 turns away.

Basically it's just rubbing salt in the wound. The potential for an engine to lock down an opponent going Duke + money in this kingdom is so potent that I'm not sure even the conventional Duke supporters in Bureaucrat and Ironworks can compete. Engine doesn't even care that much about losing the Duchy split if it can prevent the opponent from getting Dukes. I do agree that the opponent played the slog suboptimally with the turn 3 Duchy purchase (you'd want, like, 2-3 Silver gainers or support cards first, if not more), but I don't think that changes the inevitability of the outcome.
« Last Edit: January 02, 2013, 12:34:32 am by dondon151 »
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-Stef-

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Re: A surprising kingdom
« Reply #3 on: January 02, 2013, 04:38:09 am »
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I think the takeaway here should be 'Stef outplayed his opponent' rather than 'Stef's engine strategy is the superior one for this board'.
Although the strategic / deck interaction discussion is certainly interesting on this board, the main point here was the surprise. I really wanted to play a Duchy centered strategy, but failed to because of my early draws. Then I got forced into an engine, and thought "oh well then I'll try this". It worked much much better then expected. That doesn't sound like 'outplayed' or 'superior' to me, but a rather strange kind of dumb luck.

I want to look at turn 3. He buys a duchy. You say you can't really disagree with this, but I certainly can (not that it's so simple to see; but this is definitely a mistake). He should definitely be picking up something else here - probably a vault, ...
Yes, his turn 3 purchase was a mistake. I agree that a vault is the right way to go now. But I can't really blame him for not re-evaluating his strategy after turn 2. Not many people do. Besides, the treasury may not be a great card for Duchy-Duke, but none of the $5 cards is on turn 1, so this was not the huge signal for engine yet (my City on my turn 3 was).

In hindsight he should have opened Silver/Masq, and I would be quite lost with my 5/2 split. Masq/Silver is much better in 'keeping your options open', because Bureaucrat is a rather committing card, really bad in engines that aren't ready to immediately transform the silver into something else.

Oh, and I don't get your comment about downgrading to curses. What do you mean by that?
dondon already answered this. If I play two bureaucrats before masquerading a curse over, he effectively plays his turns with two cards. Only vault/silver would still get him up to $5 then, and if he doesn't have that his cycling is very slow. "downgrading" because my way to get the curse would be to play Expand on the free Silver.
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zahlman

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Re: A surprising kingdom
« Reply #4 on: January 02, 2013, 08:23:00 am »
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Quote
Vault looked bad too because it just comes too early.

I don't understand what you mean (and probably would have made this buy and run with it).
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Re: A surprising kingdom
« Reply #5 on: January 02, 2013, 09:15:04 am »
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Quote
Vault looked bad too because it just comes too early.
I don't understand what you mean (and probably would have made this buy and run with it).

I'm not saying vault is horrible, but I don't like the timing on turn 1.

If I want to make a lot of $5 purchases for Duchy/Duke, I have basically two ways to go by: either have a Vault in hand, or have enough (free) Silvers in my deck to get to $5 on pure money. For the first plan I may want to get 3-4 Vaults and nothing else. For the second plan I want 2-3 Silver gainers quickly and then ramp up.

Mixing these plans doesn't work so well. Starting with Vault and then adding Silver gainers decreases the frequency of my Vaults. And I probably still don't get up to $5 money on a non-vault turn. A few silver gainers first and then maybe a Vault later in the game (to have a chance for a province) would go much better.

I could try to run a deck here with say 3 Vaults and no added money. On the draws I get in the game that actually might have worked. Turn 3 would give me a second Vault on 5 coppers, turn 4 a third Vault using my first. But those turn 3/4 are extremely lucky if this is my plan, I wouldn't even dare hope for it. Every Vault I play helps him a little bit, while every Bureaucrat he plays hurts me a little bit. Most important problem is that on any other draws I have no clue what to do with my $3 - $4 hands.

Also: Vault/- opening has a reasonable chance of being ugly on the second reshuffle, but I'd ignore that given that my opponent went first and bought a Bureaucrat (but as the draws go in the actual game my vault + turn 4 purchase would indeed miss the reshuffle).
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WanderingWinder

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Re: A surprising kingdom
« Reply #6 on: January 02, 2013, 11:15:51 pm »
0

I think the takeaway here should be 'Stef outplayed his opponent' rather than 'Stef's engine strategy is the superior one for this board'.
Although the strategic / deck interaction discussion is certainly interesting on this board, the main point here was the surprise. I really wanted to play a Duchy centered strategy, but failed to because of my early draws. Then I got forced into an engine, and thought "oh well then I'll try this". It worked much much better then expected. That doesn't sound like 'outplayed' or 'superior' to me, but a rather strange kind of dumb luck.
Well, the way you played was the better than the way he played. Whether that's down to your superior talent for the game or not, I really don't know. My point is that this was more about adaptation than the particular engine. But it can be even more about surprise, that is fine.

Quote
I want to look at turn 3. He buys a duchy. You say you can't really disagree with this, but I certainly can (not that it's so simple to see; but this is definitely a mistake). He should definitely be picking up something else here - probably a vault, ...
Yes, his turn 3 purchase was a mistake. I agree that a vault is the right way to go now. But I can't really blame him for not re-evaluating his strategy after turn 2. Not many people do. Besides, the treasury may not be a great card for Duchy-Duke, but none of the $5 cards is on turn 1, so this was not the huge signal for engine yet (my City on my turn 3 was).
Well, yeah, it's very hard to fault someone for not changing their strategy on turn 3. There is a slight question as to whether duchy is even right for his original plan, but it's EXTREMELY difficult to, in the middle of the game, switch that early. The turn 5-6 duchies are harder, but at the higher levels, you have GOT to be able to adjust to your opponent - this is a huge reason why YOU are #1 - you can do this, but it is very very difficult.

Quote
In hindsight he should have opened Silver/Masq, and I would be quite lost with my 5/2 split. Masq/Silver is much better in 'keeping your options open', because Bureaucrat is a rather committing card, really bad in engines that aren't ready to immediately transform the silver into something else.
Mmm, see, and I would not agree with this, because masquerade is a really committing card, bad in slogs, and I think in general the most important of the three strategies to not get behind on at the start is actually the duke strategy. Moreover, bureaucrat is not so bad for big money, so he should be able to cover all his bases - if you go engine, he goes BM-Vault; if you go duke, he's in best possible shape to mirror; if you go Big Money, he goes duke and wins. If he opens masquerade, he is in decent enough shape to go engine if he wants to, but he's fairly inflexible. Well, not that it makes such a big difference, masquerade is probably also a fine opening that he should take some advantage from as p1, but I just think not quite as much. Though I guess this may be a question of taste.

Quote
Oh, and I don't get your comment about downgrading to curses. What do you mean by that?
dondon already answered this. If I play two bureaucrats before masquerading a curse over, he effectively plays his turns with two cards. Only vault/silver would still get him up to $5 then, and if he doesn't have that his cycling is very slow. "downgrading" because my way to get the curse would be to play Expand on the free Silver.
Yeah, I got that giving curses WOULD be very nice, I just hadn't gotten how - expanding silver into curse did not come to my mind until you said it - seems quite radical.
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