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[Dekryr]

So I'm sure I do a number of things wrong in this game, but my opponent says that sea hag is weak here because of the presence of upgrade. I don't understand that. I would like him to waste time upgrading curses right? I feel like he gets lucky hitting $5 on turn 3 and 4 to get 2 upgrades, but is the presence of upgrade here really enough to not open sea hag?

http://dominion.isotropic.org/gamelog/201212/26/game-20121226-200442-4236731f.html

[Kirian]

*cringe* Argh, your opponent needs to be told there's a "play all cash" button...

I think your opponent did get lucky grabbing Upgrades on both T4 and T5, but I don't think that's reason to ignore Sea Hag... in fact it might be reason to double up on it.  However, those two Upgrades are going to make your opponent's deck very fast, which means you can't ignore Upgrade... taking Bazaar on T3 was a major mistake, I think.

[axlemn]

The key cards here are Bridge, Sea Hag, King's Court, and Upgrade. 

It's risky to try to dodge Sea Hag.  It's also risky to delay your King's Courts so much.  With Upgrade around to mitigate the Sea Hag risk, avoiding the Sea Hag is worth it if it pays off.  For him, it did. 

Sea Hag is weaker when Upgrade is around because sometimes you immediately draw / trash the Curse.  Each Curse is then only a single card of delay, and only in one round.  Playing Sea Hag hurts about that much.  Your opponent also can choose to get a Silver by getting rid of an Estate instead of a Curse.  When the Curse doesn't immediately get trashed, it can cause significant damage, but not enough to overcome not being able to reach King's Court for more than a couple turns. 

Your opponent gets lucky to get two Upgrades on T3/4.  Turn 3, you should have gotten Upgrade over Bazaar.  It's too early to reliably get a King's Court, and you don't have the Upgrade or Bridge to play it with. 

I'm unsure whether opening Sea Hag is actually a mistake.  It makes your odds of drawing 5 coin on either of 3/4 extremely low. 

[Davio]

I think Sea Hag is a mistake. You need to get the Upgrade train going as fast as possible and Sea Hag doesn't help with that. It kills your own economy as much as the other guy's. And your opponent can deal with your first Sea Hag plays as long as he can get a single Upgrade. With that Upgrade he can make Estates into Silvers (which is better than just trashing Curses at the start) or Wishing Wells so he can get more Upgrades and eventually King's Court and maybe a Sea Hag of his own depending on the timing.

And in the end you can just look for that Bridge megaturn. But Upgrade is so important to get asap that I would skip Sea Hag for a better shot at it. He opened double Silver essentially while you opened similar to Silver/Estate economy-wise. He's not that lucky to get two $5's with two Silvers. I mean, it's not guaranteed, but nut uncommon at all and he made the best of it.

[Joseph2302]

Surely this is a case where Junk Dealer would be better?? (as it gives u an extra coin)

[Davio]

Surely this is a case where Junk Dealer would be better?? (as it gives u an extra coin)

I don't think so: Turning Estates into Silvers or Wishing Wells is pretty powerful in the beginning, more so than just plain trashing. And having cards at every price point is also perfect for Upgrade.

You could go with something wacky like Estate -> Wishing Well -> Bridge -> Bazaar -> Gold -> King's Court -> Province if you wanted to. But especially the first and last part of this chain are interesting.

[dondon151]

You can make a case for ignoring Sea Hag and for getting 1 Sea Hag into Upgrades, but there's really zero reason to get 2 of them.

[jonts26]

He's not that lucky to get two $5's with two Silvers. I mean, it's not guaranteed, but nut uncommon at all and he made the best of it.

He is very lucky to get double 5's. It's something like a 15% chance.

[Kirian]

He's not that lucky to get two $5's with two Silvers. I mean, it's not guaranteed, but nut uncommon at all and he made the best of it.

He is very lucky to get double 5's. It's something like a 15% chance.

Yeah, I mean... there are only a few ways to get $5 twice on 3 and 4 with two Silver equivalents:

SCCCC/SCCCE/EE---
SCCCE/SCCCE/CE---
SSCCE/CCCCC/EE---
SSCEE/CCCCC/CE---

[WanderingWinder]

http://dominionstrategy.com/2011/03/09/basic-opening-probabilities/

[Kirian]

http://dominionstrategy.com/2011/03/09/basic-opening-probabilities/

Thank you!!!

[Davio]

He's not that lucky to get two $5's with two Silvers. I mean, it's not guaranteed, but nut uncommon at all and he made the best of it.

He is very lucky to get double 5's. It's something like a 15% chance.

Well, I wouldn't call a 1 in 7 chance very lucky. I mean, it is lucky, just not highly unexpected.

[dondon151]

A 15% chance for 5/5 is still worth going for if getting 5/5 is strong on the board.

[Kirian]

A 15% chance for 5/5 is still worth going for if getting 5/5 is strong on the board.

Sure, but you don't "go for" 5/5.  You get lucky to get 5/5.  (Most people feel that opening 5/2 is lucky and that's a 1/6 chance [of course, TDOTB]).  You have to expect 5/4 or 6/3.

In this case, getting 5/5 with an amazing (vs Hag) 5 on the board is a big deal, and is quite lucky.  If his opponent had drawn 5/4 or 5/3 (36.9% chance, buy Upgrade/Silver [?]), or 6/3 or 6/4 (42.4% chance.  Do you go Gold/Silver vs. opponent's Hag?  Or go with Upgrade/Silver still?), this would have been a much, much different game.

85% of games, the opponent gets only one Upgrade, or mirrors Hag (or possibly both, ~25% chance).

Now, I think the Bazaar buy with the lucky 5 for Dekryr was a major mistake; a high-power cantrip is going to be better than a mid-power village at this point in the game.  But I don't think you can really make the case that his opponent wasn't very lucky here.

[dondon151]

Sure, but you don't "go for" 5/5.  You get lucky to get 5/5.  (Most people feel that opening 5/2 is lucky and that's a 1/6 chance [of course, TDOTB]).  You have to expect 5/4 or 6/3.

Well, if you don't have a contingency plan for 5/4 or 5/3, then your strategy was flawed in the first place, hmm? But if hitting 5/5 seals the win in my favor and hitting 5/3 doesn't put me at much of a disadvantage, then I'm still "going for" 5/5.

[jonts26]

Sure, but you don't "go for" 5/5.  You get lucky to get 5/5.  (Most people feel that opening 5/2 is lucky and that's a 1/6 chance [of course, TDOTB]).  You have to expect 5/4 or 6/3.

Well, if you don't have a contingency plan for 5/4 or 5/3, then your strategy was flawed in the first place, hmm? But if hitting 5/5 seals the win in my favor and hitting 5/3 doesn't put me at much of a disadvantage, then I'm still "going for" 5/5.

I'd say your strategy is flawed if you need to hit 5/5 on turns 3/4. You can certainly hope for great luck, but you can't expect it. When you open silver/silver (or equivalent) your strategy is generally you need to hit $5 once (91.2% chance). And getting a second $5 is just lucky icing.

[dondon151]

So you agree with me, then?

[jonts26]

Maybe? I'm not sure what you mean by 'going for 5/5.' It's probably just semantics but I would never say you should go for 5/5.

[Dekryr]

I appreciate the discussion and the feedback. I know that the bazaar purchase was a mistake. I'm just wondering if sea hag would have been as bad of a purchase had he not hit the upgrade/upgrade on turns 3 & 4. I'm sure it depends on the kingdom and here the KC is so powerful I guess ignoring a sea hag opening to hit KC quicker is probably a better plan.

[Davio]

Maybe? I'm not sure what you mean by 'going for 5/5.' It's probably just semantics but I would never say you should go for 5/5.

No, you go Silver/Silver hoping that you'll at least hit one $5.
The probability table shows this as 91.2% chance.

I don't know exactly how much the chance of hitting one $5 drops with Silver/Sea Hag though.
The added bonus of opening Silver/Silver is that your chance of hitting two $5's also increases as does your chance of hitting an early Gold if you want to grab that.

Now there's also the chance for a turn 3 Sea Hag to complicate these calculations, but oh well.

What it boils down to is whether skipping the Sea Hag for some early economy to get the Upgrade train going is a good idea and I think it is.

[WanderingWinder]

I don't see how skipping sea hag hoping to get upgrades through is good here. The thing is, every sea hag I play is another upgrade play you need, until the curses run out, and I'm slowing your economy a little in the meantime. And later on the sea hag will upgrade to something really useful. Now, two sea hags isn't worth it, I *think*, because you aren't giving out more curses really, and you do want to get that upgrade train rolling.
Further, silver/sea hag is going to hit 5 once decently often anyway, a lot more often than silver/silver gets 5/5, especially given chance of disruption by sea hag.
5/2 split is more interesting.

Well, anyway, there's always science....

[Davio]

Well, it isn't only about Sea Hags and Upgrades here. There are Wishing Wells and King's Courts too.

The reason I would think skipping Sea Hag has merit is not only because of Upgrade, although that's certainly a part, also because of hitting an early King's Court would be great.

Of course the economy is hurting on both sides because the player without Sea Hag is getting Curses and that slows him down.

How about a mix? Opening Silver/Silver and getting a Hag on the first shuffle with 5/4?

[WanderingWinder]

Well, it isn't only about Sea Hags and Upgrades here. There are Wishing Wells and King's Courts too.

The reason I would think skipping Sea Hag has merit is not only because of Upgrade, although that's certainly a part, also because of hitting an early King's Court would be great.

Of course the economy is hurting on both sides because the player without Sea Hag is getting Curses and that slows him down.

How about a mix? Opening Silver/Silver and getting a Hag on the first shuffle with 5/4?

Sure, getting KC is great. Not first shuffle though- you have nothing to king, and it's unlikely, and unlikely to match actions, etc. Hag ought to get silvers after anyway, so I don't think that's such a huge issue. Silver/silver into hag as consolation on $4 is interesting- I thought about it this morning. I don't *think* it's as good, but it wouldn't shock me if I were wrong there.

I am curious about wishing well, though. When are you getting it, and why is it relevant to the hag vs silver question? Not that it isn't, I'd just like to see that argument spelled out more clearly.